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Recent studies point to the sensitivity of mid-latitude winter climate to Arctic sea ice variability. However, there remain contradictory results in terms of character and timing of Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation features to Arctic sea ice changes. This study assesses the impact of realistic late autumn eastern Arctic sea ice anomalies on atmospheric wintertime circulation at mid-latitudes, pointing to a hidden potential for seasonal predictability. ​Using a dynamical seasonal prediction system, an ensemble of seasonal forecast simulations of 23 historical winter seasons is run with reduced November sea ice cover in the Barents-Kara Seas, and is compared to the respective control seasonal hindcast simulations set. ​A non energy-conserving approach is adopted for achieving the desired sea ice loss, with artificial heat being added conditionally to the ocean surface heat fluxes so as to inhibit the formation of sea ice during November. Our results point to a robust atmospheric circulation response in the North Pacific sector, similar to previous findings on the multidecadal timescale. Specifically, an anticyclonic anomaly at upper and lower levels is identified over the eastern midlatitude North Pacific, leading to dry conditions over the North American southwest coast. The responses are related to a re-organization (weakening) of west-Pacific tropical convection and interactions with the tropical Hadley circulation. ​A possible interaction of the poleward-shifted Pacific eddy-driven jet stream and the Hadley cell is discussed​. ​The winter circulation response in the Euro-Atlantic sector is ephemeral in character and statistically significant in January only, corroborating previous findings of an intermittent and non-stationary Arctic sea ice-NAO link during boreal winter. These results ​aid our understanding of the seasonal impacts of reduced eastern Arctic sea ice on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation with implications for seasonal predictability in wintertime.

In this paper, distinct patterns of boreal winter convection anomalies over the tropical Pacific and associated wave trains in the extratropics are addressed. The first leading mode (EOF1) of convection anomalies as measured by outgoing longwave radiation demonstrates an east–west oscillation of deep convection with centers over the equatorial central Pacific (CP) and over the tropical western North Pacific and the Maritime Continent. The second leading mode (EOF2) is also a dipole pattern with opposite centers straddling 170°W, possibly modifying EOF1 to some extent. Combining the first two leading modes, five major categories of tropical convection anomalies can be identified for the period 1979/80-2012/13. The comparison between these five categories and the corresponding SST anomaly patterns indicates a nonlinear relationship between convection and SST. The combination of EOF1 and EOF2 with in-phase PCs exhibits an east–west dipole pattern with opposite signs over west of the dateline and the Maritime Continent. The negative phase of the two PCs, named La Niña pattern, induces a negative Pacific/North American—positive North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnection in the extratropics. Approximately opposite responses can be detected in its positive phase, named CP El Niño pattern. The negative PC2 superposing positive PC1, named EP El Niño pattern, shows the strongest convection anomalies with enhanced (depressed) convection over the eastern (western) Pacific and leads to a Tropical/Northern Hemisphere-like teleconnection pattern and an anomalous anticyclone extending from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. The positive PC2 with neutral PC1, named western CP pattern, shows weakly enhanced convection to the west of the dateline as a response to local SST warming around the dateline. This convection anomaly pattern, although weak, is important and excites a northeastward wave train from the tropics to Greenland, resulting in surface air temperature cooling covering the northeastern North America and warmer and wetter conditions over Western Europe.

This study represents an attempt to apply Large‐Eddy Simulation (LES) resolution to simulate deep tropical convection in near equilibrium for 24 hours over an area of about 205 × 205 km2, which is comparable to that of a typical horizontal grid cell in a global climate model. The simulation is driven by large‐scale thermodynamic tendencies derived from mean conditions during the GATE Phase III field experiment. The LES uses 2048 × 2048 × 256 grid points with horizontal grid spacing of 100 m and vertical grid spacing ranging from 50 m in the boundary layer to 100 m in the free troposphere. The simulation reaches a near equilibrium deep convection regime in 12 hours. The simulated vertical cloud distribution exhibits a tri‐modal vertical distribution of deep, middle and shallow clouds similar to that often observed in Tropics. A sensitivity experiment in which cold pools are suppressed by switching off the evaporation of precipitation results in much lower amounts of shallow and congestus clouds. Unlike the benchmark LES where the new deep clouds tend to appear along the edges of spreading cold pools, the deep clouds in the no‐cold‐pool experiment tend to reappear at the sites of the previous deep clouds and tend to be surrounded by extensive areas of sporadic shallow clouds. The vertical velocity statistics of updraft and downdraft cores below 6 km height are compared to aircraft observations made during GATE. The comparison shows generally good agreement, and strongly suggests that the LES simulation can be used as a benchmark to represent the dynamics of tropical deep convection on scales ranging from large turbulent eddies to mesoscale convective systems. The effect of horizontal grid resolution is examined by running the same case with progressively larger grid sizes of 200, 400, 800, and 1600 m. These runs show a reasonable agreement with the benchmark LES in statistics such as convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, cloud fraction, precipitation rates, and surface latent and sensible fluxes. All runs reveal a tri‐model cloud distribution in the vertical. However, there are differences in the updraft‐core cloud statistics, and convergence of statistical properties is found only between the LES benchmark and the run with 200 m grid size. The effect of vertical grid resolution is also investigated with another run that uses a typical cloud‐resolving model (CRM) horizontal grid size on the order of 1 km and only 64 vertical levels. A comparison to the run with 256 vertical levels shows different vertical cloud distributions. It is concluded that representation of the often observed tri‐modal vertical distribution of clouds requires a vertical grid spacing in the range of 50‐100 m in mid‐to‐low troposphere.

There has been an accelerating interest in forecasting the weather and climate within the subseasonal time range. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), an organized envelope of tropical convection, is recognized as one of the leading sources of subseasonal predictability. This review synthesizes the latest progress regarding the MJO predictability and prediction. During the past decade, the MJO prediction skill in dynamical prediction systems has exceeded the skill of empirical predictions. Such improvement has been mainly attributed to more observations and computer resources, advances in theoretical understanding, and improved numerical models aided in part by multinational efforts through field campaigns and multimodel experiments. The state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts have shown MJO prediction skill up to 5 weeks. Prediction skill can be extended by improving the ensemble generation approach tailored for MJO prediction and by averaging multiensembles or multimodels. MJO prediction skill can be influenced by the tropical mean state and low-frequency climate mode variations, as well as by the extratropical circulation. MJO prediction skill is proven to be sensitive to model physics, ocean–atmosphere coupling, and quality of initial conditions, while the impact of the model resolution seems to be marginal. Remaining challenges and recommendations on new research avenues to fully realize the predictability of the MJO are discussed.

Tropical convection tends to be more intense over land than ocean, but why? Numerous previous studies have investigated the causes of this difference. This paper revisits this question using CloudSat data and focuses on interconnecting various environmental parameters and cloud properties, which have often been examined in a piecemeal way in the past. Our analysis shows that if convection is treated as a process by which potential energy (convective available potential energy) is converted to kinetic energy (vertical velocity), then the conversion is more efficient over land than ocean. A key factor that affects this conversion efficiency is the lifting condensation level (LCL). Higher LCLs over land give rise to broader dry boundary layer thermals that transition to wider deep convective cores. Wider cores, in turn, are better protected from the dilution by entrainment, thus leading to stronger updrafts. This study highlights the importance of the dry stage of convection. Plain Language Summary The dynamics of thunderstorms is fundamentally different between land and ocean. One salient difference is higher intensity thunderstorms over land than over ocean, especially in the tropics. Causes of the land‐ocean contrast in thunderstorm intensity have been investigated in numerous previous studies, but gaps of knowledge still remain. This paper revisits the subject by examining links between the environmental parameters and cloud properties using multiple years of satellite observations. Our results suggest that if thunderstorms are conceptualized as a process by which potential energy is converted to kinetic energy, higher intensity in land thunderstorms can be attributed to a more efficient conversion due to wider updraft cores that mix less with the surrounding environmental air. A key factor that affects this conversion efficiency and mixing with the environment appears to be the lifting condensation level, or cloud base height, which is a measure of the characteristics of dry, upward‐moving air parcels, below cloud base. This study highlights the importance of the dry stage of these air parcels because it sets the foundation for the thunderstorms that follow. Key Points This study revisits the land‐ocean contrast in convective intensity based on satellite observations If convection is a process by which potential energy is converted to kinetic energy, then land has greater conversion efficiency than ocean A key factor that affects the conversion efficiency and dilution rate appears to be the lifting condensation level

In 2013/14 eastern South America experienced one of its worst droughts. At the same time an unprecedented marine heatwave developed in the western South Atlantic. The drought was linked to suppression of the South Atlantic convergence zone and its associated rainfall, which led to water shortages in Brazil and impacted food supplies globally. Here we show from observations that such droughts and adjacent marine heatwaves have a common remote cause. Atmospheric blocking triggered by tropical convection in the Indian and Pacific oceans can cause persistent anticyclonic circulation that not only leads to severe drought but also generates marine heatwaves in the adjacent ocean. We show that increased shortwave radiation due to reduced cloud cover and reduced ocean heat loss from weaker winds are the main contributors to the establishment of marine heatwaves in the region. The proposed mechanism, which involves droughts, extreme air temperature over land and atmospheric blocking explains approximately 60% of the marine heatwave events in the western South Atlantic. We also identified an increase in frequency, duration, intensity and extension of marine heatwave events over the satellite period 1982–2016. Moreover, surface primary production was reduced during these events with implications for regional fisheries.

Organized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is “self-aggregation,” in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.

New particle formation (NPF) in the tropical upper troposphere is a globally important source of atmospheric aerosols 1 , 2 , 3 – 4 . It is known to occur over the Amazon basin, but the nucleation mechanism and chemical precursors have yet to be identified 2 . Here we present comprehensive in situ aircraft measurements showing that extremely low-volatile oxidation products of isoprene, particularly certain organonitrates, drive NPF in the Amazonian upper troposphere. The organonitrates originate from OH-initiated oxidation of isoprene from forest emissions in the presence of nitrogen oxides from lightning. Nucleation bursts start about 2 h after sunrise in the outflow of nocturnal deep convection, producing high aerosol concentrations of more than 50,000 particles cm − 3 . We report measurements of characteristic diurnal cycles of precursor gases and particles. Our observations show that the interplay between biogenic isoprene, deep tropical convection with associated lightning, oxidation photochemistry and the low ambient temperature uniquely promotes NPF. The particles grow over time, undergo long-range transport and descend through subsidence to the lower troposphere, in which they can serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence the Earth’s hydrological cycle, radiation budget and climate 1 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 – 8 . Aircraft measurements over the Amazon show that new particle formation in the upper troposphere emerges when isoprene, emitted by forests, undergoes oxidation in the presence of nitrogen oxides produced by lightning.

Observations have shown that tropical convection is influenced by fluctuations in temperature and moisture in the lower free troposphere (LFT; 600–850 hPa), as well as moist enthalpy (ME) fluctuations beneath the 850 hPa level, referred to as the deep boundary layer (DBL; 850–1000 hPa). A framework is developed that consolidates these three quantities within the context of the buoyancy of an entraining plume. A “plume buoyancy equation” is derived based on a relaxed version of the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation. Analysis of this equation using quantities derived from the Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) sounding array data reveals that processes occurring within the DBL and the LFT contribute nearly equally to the evolution of plume buoyancy, indicating that processes that occur in both layers are critical to the evolution of tropical convection. Adiabatic motions play an important role in the evolution of buoyancy both at the daily and longer time scales and are comparable in magnitude to horizontal moisture advection and vertical moist static energy advection by convection. The plume buoyancy equation may explain convective coupling at short time scales in both temperature and moisture fluctuations and can be used to complement the commonly used moist static energy budget, which emphasizes the slower evolution of the convective envelope in tropical motion systems.

The validation of convective processes in global climate models (GCMs) couldbenefit from the use of large datasets that provide long-term climatologiesof the spatial statistics of convection. To that regard, echo top heights(ETHs), convective areas, and frequencies of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs) from 17 years of data from a C-band polarization (CPOL) radar areanalyzed in varying phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) andnorthern Australian monsoon in order to provide ample validation statisticsfor GCM validation. The ETHs calculated using velocity texture andreflectivity provide similar results, showing that the ETHs are insensitiveto various techniques that can be used. Retrieved ETHs are correlated withthose from cloud top heights retrieved by Multifunctional TransportSatellites (MTSATs), showing that the ETHs capture the relative variabilityin cloud top heights over seasonal scales. Bimodal distributions of ETH, likely attributable to the cumulus congestus clouds and mature stages ofconvection, are more commonly observed when the active phase of the MJO isover Australia due to greater mid-level moisture during the active phase ofthe MJO. The presence of a convectively stable layer at around 5 km altitudeover Darwin inhibiting convection past this level can explain the position ofthe modes at around 2–4 km and 7–9 km. Larger cells were observed duringbreak conditions compared to monsoon conditions, but only during the inactivephase of the MJO. The spatial distributions show that Hector, a deepconvective system that occurs almost daily during the wet season over theTiwi Islands, and sea-breeze convergence lines are likely more common inbreak conditions. Oceanic MCSs are more common duringthe night over Darwin. Convective areas were generally smaller and MCSs morefrequent during active monsoon conditions. In general, the MJO is a greatercontrol on the ETHs in the deep convective mode observed over Darwin, withhigher distributions of ETH when the MJO is active over Darwin.