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We present a comprehensive simulation of tropospheric chlorine within the GEOS-Chem global 3-D model of oxidant–aerosol–halogen atmospheric chemistry. The simulation includes explicit accounting of chloride mobilization from sea salt aerosol by acid displacement of HCl and by other heterogeneous processes. Additional small sources of tropospheric chlorine (combustion, organochlorines, transport from stratosphere) are also included. Reactive gas-phase chlorine Cl*, including Cl, ClO, Cl2, BrCl, ICl, HOCl, ClNO3, ClNO2, and minor species, is produced by the HCl+OH reaction and by heterogeneous conversion of sea salt aerosol chloride to BrCl, ClNO2, Cl2, and ICl. The model successfully simulates the observed mixing ratios of HCl in marine air (highest at northern midlatitudes) and the associated HNO3 decrease from acid displacement. It captures the high ClNO2 mixing ratios observed in continental surface air at night and attributes the chlorine to HCl volatilized from sea salt aerosol and transported inland following uptake by fine aerosol. The model successfully simulates the vertical profiles of HCl measured from aircraft, where enhancements in the continental boundary layer can again be largely explained by transport inland of the marine source. It does not reproduce the boundary layer Cl2 mixing ratios measured in the WINTER aircraft campaign (1–5 ppt in the daytime, low at night); the model is too high at night, which could be due to uncertainty in the rate of the ClNO2+Cl- reaction, but we have no explanation for the high observed Cl2 in daytime. The global mean tropospheric concentration of Cl atoms in the model is 620 cm−3 and contributes 1.0 % of the global oxidation of methane, 20 % of ethane, 14 % of propane, and 4 % of methanol. Chlorine chemistry increases global mean tropospheric BrO by 85 %, mainly through the HOBr+Cl- reaction, and decreases global burdens of tropospheric ozone by 7 % and OH by 3 % through the associated bromine radical chemistry. ClNO2 chemistry drives increases in ozone of up to 8 ppb over polluted continents in winter.

Nitrogen oxides (NO.sub.x = NO + NO.sub.2) play a critical role in regulating tropospheric chemistry, yet NO.sub.x emission estimates are subject to large uncertainties, casting doubt on our ability to accurately model secondary pollutants such as ozone. Bottom-up emissions inventories are subject to a number of uncertainties related to estimates of emission activities, scaling factors, and fuel sources. Here, we provide an additional constraint on NO.sub.x emissions and trends using nitrate wet deposition (NWD) fluxes from the United States National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP). We use these NWD measurements to evaluate anthropogenic and total NO.sub.x trends and magnitudes in the global Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) emissions inventory and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model from 1980-2020. Over both the United States and Europe, observed NWD trends track well with anthropogenic NO.sub.x emissions from the CEDS inventory until 2010, after which NWD trends level out in contrast to continued decreases in CEDS. After 2010, NWD trends are able to reproduce total NO.sub.x emissions trends when the influences of both anthropogenic and background sources are considered. Observed NWD fluxes are also able to capture NO.sub.x emissions decreases over the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period and are consistent with satellite and surface measurements of NO.sub.2 . These results suggest that NWD fluxes constrain total NO.sub.x emissions well, whether trends are driven by anthropogenic or background sources. We further compare modeled and observed NWD to provide an additional line of evidence for potential overestimates of anthropogenic NO.sub.x in emissions inventories. Over the United States, we find that NWD is overestimated in summer from 1980-2017 by 15 %-20 % on average (interquartile range: 11 %-31 %), with overestimates most prominent in the eastern US after 2000 (20 % on average), implying an overestimate of NO.sub.x emissions in the CEDS inventory (0.5x0.5° resolution). Over Europe, we find that modeled NWD is overestimated in all seasons from 1980-2017, with the strongest average overestimates occurring in summer and fall (175 % and 170 %, respectively). These overestimates may be reduced by cutting anthropogenic NO.sub.x emissions by 50 % in CEDS over Europe (i.e., cutting the 1980-2017 average annual emissions from 2.6 to 1.3 Tg N), but summertime and fall NO.sub.x may still need to be reduced further for observations and models to align. Overestimates may extend to other inventories such as the EMEP inventory, which estimates comparable but lower emissions than CEDS, with a 1990-2017 average of 2.1 Tg N relative to the CEDS 1990-2017 average of 2.4 Tg N. We find that NO.sub.x emission reductions over Europe improve model ozone at the surface, reducing the model summertime ozone overestimate from 14 % to 2 %.

This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are −1.03 ± 0.37 W/sq.m for SO2 emissions, −0.25 ± 0.09 W/sq.m for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for black carbon (BC) and −0.07 ± 0.01 W/sq.m for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is −1.01 ± 0.25 W/sq.m. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W/sq.m for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W/sq.m for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W/sq.m respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.

Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) are important ozone and secondary organic aerosol precursors and play important roles in tropospheric chemistry. In this work, we estimated the total and speciated NMVOC emissions from China's anthropogenic sources during 1990–2017 by using a bottom-up emission inventory framework and investigated the main drivers behind the trends. We found that anthropogenic NMVOC emissions in China have been increasing continuously since 1990 due to the dramatic growth in activity rates and absence of effective control measures. We estimated that anthropogenic NMVOC emissions in China increased from 9.76 Tg in 1990 to 28.5 Tg in 2017, mainly driven by the persistent growth from the industry sector and solvent use. Meanwhile, emissions from the residential and transportation sectors declined after 2005, partly offsetting the total emission increase. During 1990–2017, mass-based emissions of alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, aromatics, oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) and other species increased by 274 %, 88 %, 4 %, 387 %, 91 % and 231 %, respectively. Following the growth in total NMVOC emissions, the corresponding ozone formation potential (OFP) increased from 38.2 Tg of O3 in 1990 to 99.7 Tg of O3 in 2017. We estimated that aromatics accounted for the largest share (43 %) of the total OFP, followed by alkenes (37 %) and OVOCs (10 %). Growth in China's NMVOC emissions was mainly driven by the transportation sector before 2000, while industry and solvent use dominated the emission growth during 2000–2010. Since 2010, although emissions from the industry sector and solvent use kept growing, strict control measures on transportation and fuel transition in residential stoves have successfully slowed down the increasing trend, especially after the implementation of China's clean air action since 2013. However, compared to large emission decreases in other major air pollutants in China (e.g., SO2, NOx and primary PM) during 2013–2017, the relatively flat trend in NMVOC emissions and OFP revealed the absence of effective control measures, which might have contributed to the increase in ozone during the same period. Given their high contributions to emissions and OFP, tailored control measures for solvent use and industrial sources should be developed, and multi-pollutant control strategies should be designed to mitigate both PM2.5 and ozone pollution simultaneously.

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) includes a detailed representation of chemistry throughout the atmosphere in the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model configurations. These model configurations use the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) family of chemical mechanisms, covering the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. The new MOZART tropospheric chemistry scheme (T1) has a number of updates over the previous version (MOZART‐4) in CESM, including improvements to the oxidation of isoprene and terpenes, organic nitrate speciation, and aromatic speciation and oxidation and thus improved representation of ozone and secondary organic aerosol precursors. An evaluation of the present‐day simulations of CESM2 being provided for Climate Model Intercomparison Project round 6 (CMIP6) is presented. These simulations, using the anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions from the inventories specified for CMIP6, as well as online calculation of emissions of biogenic compounds, lightning NO, dust, and sea salt, indicate an underestimate of anthropogenic emissions of a variety of compounds, including carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. The simulation of surface ozone in the southeast United States is improved over previous model versions, largely due to the improved representation of reactive nitrogen and organic nitrate compounds resulting in a lower ozone production rate than in CESM1 but still overestimates observations in summer. The simulation of tropospheric ozone agrees well with ozonesonde observations in many parts of the globe. The comparison of NOx and PAN to aircraft observations indicates the model simulates the nitrogen budget well. Plain Language Summary The set of chemical reactions for tropospheric chemistry used in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) has been updated significantly over CESM1 in the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM‐chem) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) configurations. The emissions used for the CESM2 simulations are documented here, with anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions based on the specified inventories for Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), and emissions of biogenic compounds, lightning NO, dust, and sea salt are calculated online and dependent on the simulated meteorology. Evaluation of the CAM‐chem and WACCM configurations of CESM2 with observations indicate an underestimate of anthropogenic emissions of a variety of compounds, including carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. The updated chemistry leads to an improvement in the simulation of tropospheric ozone. Key Points This paper fully documents the significant updates to the chemistry mechanisms in version 2 of the Community Earth System Model The new tropospheric chemistry scheme improves representation of isoprene oxidation as well as other ozone precursors over earlier versions The simulation of tropospheric ozone is improved in comparison to observations

Global surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over a 10-year period (2005-2014) are estimated from an assimilation of multiple satellite data sets: tropospheric NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2), and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), O3 profiles from Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), CO profiles from Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), and O3 and HNO3 profiles from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Chemical concentrations of various species and emission sources of several precursors are simultaneously optimized. This is expected to improve the emission inversion because the emission estimates are influenced by biases in the modelled tropospheric chemistry, which can be partly corrected by also optimizing the concentrations. We present detailed distributions of the estimated emission distributions for all major regions, the diurnal and seasonal variability, and the evolution of these emissions over the 10-year period. The estimated regional total emissions show a strong positive trend over India (+29%decade-1), China (+26%decade-1), and the Middle East (+20%decade-1), and a negative trend over the USA (-38%decade-1), southern Africa (-8.2%decade-1), and western Europe (-8.8%decade-1). The negative trends in the USA and western Europe are larger during 2005-2010 relative to 2011-2014, whereas the trend in China becomes negative after 2011. The data assimilation also suggests a large uncertainty in anthropogenic and fire-related emission factors and an important underestimation of soil NOx sources in the emission inventories. Despite the large trends observed for individual regions, the global total emission is almost constant between 2005 (47.9TgNyr-1) and 2014 (47.5TgNyr-1).

>We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1σ uncertainty of 2043–2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025–2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ∼ 15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ∼ 15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular those of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model–model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that it is more important to have multi-member (at least three) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models.

Mercury (Hg), a global contaminant, is emitted mainly in its elemental form Hg⁰ to the atmosphere where it is oxidized to reactive HgII compounds, which efficiently deposit to surface ecosystems. Therefore, the chemical cycling between the elemental and oxidized Hg forms in the atmosphere determines the scale and geographical pattern of global Hg deposition. Recent advances in the photochemistry of gas-phase oxidized HgI and HgII species postulate their photodissociation back to Hg⁰ as a crucial step in the atmospheric Hg redox cycle. However, the significance of these photodissociation mechanisms on atmospheric Hg chemistry, lifetime, and surface deposition remains uncertain. Here we implement a comprehensive and quantitative mechanism of the photochemical and thermal atmospheric reactions between Hg⁰, HgI, and HgII species in a global model and evaluate the results against atmospheric Hg observations. We find that the photochemistry of HgI and HgII leads to insufficient Hg oxidation globally. The combined efficient photoreduction of HgI and HgII to Hg⁰ competes with thermal oxidation of Hg⁰, resulting in a large model overestimation of 99% of measured Hg⁰ and underestimation of 51% of oxidized Hg and ∼66% of HgII wet deposition. This in turn leads to a significant increase in the calculated global atmospheric Hg lifetime of 20 mo, which is unrealistically longer than the 3–6-mo range based on observed atmospheric Hg variability. These results show that the HgI and HgII photoreduction processes largely offset the efficiency of bromine-initiated Hg⁰ oxidation and reveal missing Hg oxidation processes in the troposphere.

Despite the potential influence of iodine chemistry on the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere, reactive iodine distributions and their impact on tropospheric ozone remain almost unexplored aspects of the global atmosphere. Here we present a comprehensive global modelling experiment aimed at estimating lower and upper limits of the inorganic iodine burden and its impact on tropospheric ozone. Two sets of simulations without and with the photolysis of IxOy oxides (i.e. I2O2, I2O3 and I2O4) were conducted to define the range of inorganic iodine loading, partitioning and impact in the troposphere. Our results show that the most abundant daytime iodine species throughout the middle to upper troposphere is atomic iodine, with an annual average tropical abundance of (0.15–0.55) pptv. We propose the existence of a \"tropical ring of atomic iodine\" that peaks in the tropical upper troposphere (~11–14 km) at the equator and extends to the sub-tropics (30° N–30° S). Annual average daytime I / IO ratios larger than 3 are modelled within the tropics, reaching ratios up to ~20 during vigorous uplift events within strong convective regions. We calculate that the integrated contribution of catalytic iodine reactions to the total rate of tropospheric ozone loss (IOx Loss) is 2–5 times larger than the combined bromine and chlorine cycles. When IxOy photolysis is included, IOx Loss represents an upper limit of approximately 27, 14 and 27% of the tropical annual ozone loss for the marine boundary layer (MBL), free troposphere (FT) and upper troposphere (UT), respectively, while the lower limit throughout the tropical troposphere is ~9%. Our results indicate that iodine is the second strongest ozone-depleting family throughout the global marine UT and in the tropical MBL. We suggest that (i) iodine sources and its chemistry need to be included in global tropospheric chemistry models, (ii) experimental programs designed to quantify the iodine budget in the troposphere should include a strategy for the measurement of atomic I, and (iii) laboratory programs are needed to characterize the photochemistry of higher iodine oxides to determine their atmospheric fate since they can potentially dominate halogen-catalysed ozone destruction in the troposphere.

The isotopic composition of nitrogen and oxygen in nitrogen dioxide (NO.sub.2) potentially carries a wealth of information about the dynamics of the nitrogen oxides (NO.sub.x = nitric oxide (NO) + NO.sub.2) chemistry in the atmosphere. While nitrogen isotopes of NO.sub.2 are subtle indicators of NO.sub.x emissions and chemistry, oxygen isotopes are believed to reflect only the O.sub.3 / NO.sub.x / VOC chemical regime in different atmospheric environments. In order to access this potential tracer of the tropospheric chemistry, we have developed an efficient active method to trap atmospheric NO.sub.2 on denuder tubes and measured, for the first time, its multi-isotopic composition ([delta].sup.15 N, [delta].sup.18 O, and Î.sup.17 O). The Î.sup.17 O values of NO.sub.2 trapped at our site in Grenoble, France, show a large diurnal cycle peaking in late morning at (39.2 ± 0.3) 0/00 and decreasing at night until (20.5 ± 0.3) 0/00. On top of this diurnal cycle, Î.sup.17 O also exhibits substantial daytime variability (from 29.7 0/00 to 39.2 0/00), certainly driven by changes in the O.sub.3 to peroxyl radicals (RO.sub.2) ratio. The nighttime decay of Î.sup.17 O(NO.sub.2) appears to be driven by NO.sub.2 slow removal, mostly from conversion into N.sub.2 O.sub.5, and its formation from the reaction between O.sub.3 and freshly emitted NO. As expected from a nighttime Î.sup.17 O(NO.sub.2) expression, our Î.sup.17 O(NO.sub.2) measured towards the end of the night is quantitatively consistent with typical values of Î.sup.17 O(O.sub.3). Daytime N isotope fractionation is estimated using a general expression linking it to Î.sup.17 O(NO.sub.2). An expression is also derived for the nighttime N isotope fractionation. In contrast to Î.sup.17 O(NO.sub.2 ), [delta].sup.15 N(NO.sub.2) measurements exhibit little diurnal variability (-11.8 0/00 to -4.9 0/00) with negligible isotope fractionations between NO and NO.sub.2, mainly due to high NO.sub.2 / NO.sub.x ratios, excepted during the morning rush hours. The main NO.sub.x emission sources are estimated using a Bayesian isotope mixing model, indicating the predominance of traffic emissions in this area. These preliminary results are very promising for using the combination of Î.sup.17 O and [delta].sup.15 N of NO.sub.2 as a probe of the NO.sub.x sources and fate and for interpreting nitrate isotopic composition records.