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Despite progresses in representing different processes, hydrological models remain uncertain. Their uncertainty stems from input and calibration data, model structure, and parameters. In characterizing these sources, their causes, interactions and different uncertainty analysis (UA) methods are reviewed. The commonly used UA methods are categorized into six broad classes: (i) Monte Carlo analysis, (ii) Bayesian statistics, (iii) multi-objective analysis, (iv) least-squares-based inverse modeling, (v) response-surface-based techniques, and (vi) multi-modeling analysis. For each source of uncertainty, the status-quo and applications of these methods are critiqued in gauged catchments where UA is common and in ungauged catchments where both UA and its review are lacking. Compared to parameter uncertainty, UA application for structural uncertainty is limited while input and calibration data uncertainties are mostly unaccounted. Further research is needed to improve the computational efficiency of UA, disentangle and propagate the different sources of uncertainty, improve UA applications to environmental changes and coupled human–natural-hydrologic systems, and ease UA’s applications for practitioners.

PurposeAs an advanced calculation methodology, reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO) has been widely acknowledged for the design problems of modern complex engineering systems, not only because of the accurate evaluation of the impact of uncertain factors but also the relatively good balance between economy and safety of performance. However, with the increasing complexity of engineering technology, the proposed RBMDO method gradually cannot effectively solve the higher nonlinear coupled multidisciplinary uncertainty design optimization problems, which limits the engineering application of RBMDO. Many valuable works have been done in the RBMDO field in recent decades to tackle the above challenges. This study is to review these studies systematically, highlight the research opportunities and challenges, and attempt to guide future research efforts.Design/methodology/approachThis study presents a comprehensive review of the RBMDO theory, mainly including the reliability analysis methods of different uncertainties and the decoupling strategies of RBMDO.FindingsFirst, the multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) preliminaries are given. The basic MDO concepts and the corresponding mathematical formulas are illustrated. Then, the procedures of three RBMDO methods with different reliability analysis strategies are introduced in detail. These RBMDO methods were proposed for the design optimization problems under different uncertainty types. Furtherly, an optimization problem for a certain operating condition of a turbine runner blade is introduced to illustrate the engineering application of the above method. Finally, three aspects of future challenges for RBMDO, namely, time-varying uncertainty analysis; high-precision surrogate models, and verification, validation and accreditation (VVA) for the model, are discussed followed by the conclusion.Originality/valueThe scope of this study is to introduce the RBMDO theory systematically. Three commonly used RBMDO-SORA methods are reviewed comprehensively, including the methods' general procedures and mathematical models.

Traditional structural uncertainty analysis is mainly based on probability models and requires the establishment of accurate parametric probability distribution functions using large numbers of experimental samples. In many actual engineering problems, the probability distributions of some parameters can be established due to sufficient samples available, whereas for some parameters, due to the lack or poor quality of samples, only their variation intervals can be obtained, or their probability distribution types can be determined based on the existing data while some of the distribution parameters such as mean and standard deviation can only be given interval estimations. This thus will constitute an important type of probability-interval hybrid uncertain problem, in which the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties both exist. The probability-interval hybrid uncertainty analysis provides an important mean for reliability analysis and design of many complex structures, and has become one of the research focuses in the field of structural uncertainty analysis over the past decades. This paper reviews the four main research directions in this area, i.e., uncertainty modeling, uncertainty propagation analysis, structural reliability analysis, and reliability-based design optimization. It summarizes the main scientific problems, technical difficulties, and current research status of each direction. Based on the review, this paper also provides an outlook for future research in probability-interval hybrid uncertainty analysis.

Hydrogen is a promising energy carrier in the clean energy systems currently being developed. However, its effectiveness in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires conducting a lifecycle analysis of the process by which hydrogen is produced and supplied. This study focuses on the hydrogen for the transport sector, in particular renewable hydrogen that is produced from wind- or solar PV-powered electrolysis. A life cycle inventory analysis is conducted to evaluate the Well-to-Tank (WtT) GHG emissions from various renewable hydrogen supply chains. The stages of the supply chains include hydrogen being produced overseas, converted into a transportable hydrogen carrier (liquid hydrogen or methylcyclohexane), imported to Japan by sea, distributed to hydrogen filling stations, restored from the hydrogen carrier to hydrogen and filled into fuel cell vehicles. For comparison, an analysis is also carried out with hydrogen produced by steam reforming of natural gas. Foreground data related to the hydrogen supply chains are collected by literature surveys and the Japanese life cycle inventory database is used as the background data. The analysis results indicate that some of renewable hydrogen supply chains using liquid hydrogen exhibited significantly lower WtT GHG emissions than those of a supply chain of hydrogen produced by reforming of natural gas. A significant piece of the work is to consider the impacts of variations in the energy and material inputs by performing a probabilistic uncertainty analysis. This suggests that the production of renewable hydrogen, its liquefaction, the dehydrogenation of methylcyclohexane and the compression of hydrogen at the filling station are the GHG-intensive stages in the target supply chains.

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO2), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges.

The drawback of pixel-based change detection is that it neglects the spatial correlation with neighboring pixels and has a high commission ratio. In contrast, object-based change detection (OBCD) depends on the accuracy of the segmentation scale, which is of great significance in image analysis. Accordingly, an object-based approach for automatic change detection using multiple classifiers and multi-scale uncertainty analysis (OB-MMUA) in high-resolution (HR) remote sensing images is proposed in this paper. In this algorithm, the gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), morphological, and Gabor filter texture features are extracted to construct the input data, along with the spectral features, to utilize the respective advantages of the features and to compensate for the insufficient spectral information. In addition, random forest is used to select the features and determine the optimal feature vectors for the change detection. Change vector analysis (CVA) based on uncertainty analysis is then implemented to select the initial training samples. According to the diversity, support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and extra-trees (ExT) classifiers are then chosen as the base classifiers for Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory fusion, and unlabeled samples are selected using an active learning method with spatial information. Finally, multi-scale object-based D-S evidence theory fusion and uncertainty analysis is used to classify the difference image. To validate the proposed approach, we conducted experiments using multispectral images collected by the ZY-3 and GF-2 satellites. The experimental results confirmed the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed approach, which integrates the respective advantages of the pixel-based and object-based methods.

The re-emergence of syphilis has become a global public health issue, and more persons are getting infected, especially in developing countries. This has also led to an increase in the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections as some studies have shown in the recent decade. This paper investigates the synergistic interaction between HIV and syphilis using a mathematical model that assesses the impact of syphilis treatment on the dynamics of syphilis and HIV co-infection in a human population where HIV treatment is not readily available or accessible to HIV-infected individuals. In the absence of HIV, the syphilis-only model undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number (RT) is less than unity, due to susceptibility to syphilis reinfection after recovery from a previous infection. The complete syphilis–HIV co-infection model also undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated effective reproduction number (RC) is less than unity for the same reason as the syphilis-only model. When susceptibility to syphilis reinfection after treatment is insignificant, the disease-free equilibrium of the syphilis-only model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number (RT) is less than unity. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis show that the top three parameters that drive the syphilis infection (with respect to the associated response function, RT) are the contact rate (βS), modification parameter that accounts for the increased infectiousness of syphilis-infected individuals in the secondary stage of the infection (θ1) and treatment rate for syphilis-only infected individuals in the primary stage of the infection (r1). The co-infection model was numerically simulated to investigate the impact of various treatment strategies for primary and secondary syphilis, in both singly and dually infected individuals, on the dynamics of the co-infection of syphilis and HIV. It is observed that if concerted effort is exerted in the treatment of primary and secondary syphilis (in both singly and dually infected individuals), especially with high treatment rates for primary syphilis, this will result in a reduction in the incidence of HIV (and its co-infection with syphilis) in the population.

Integrated blisk–shaft rotors represent a critical advancement in aero-engine design, offering enhanced structural integrity and weight reduction. However, their complex dynamic behavior under inherent material uncertainties poses significant challenges for reliable vibration prediction. This study presents a novel stochastic uncertainty analysis framework combining reduced-order finite element modeling and artificial neural networks (ANNs) to efficiently and accurately quantify the modal variability of integrated blisk–shaft rotors. A high-fidelity finite element model is first developed, followed by the construction and validation of a reduced-order model (ROM) to substantially decrease computational costs while preserving modal accuracy. Material parameter uncertainties are introduced, and corresponding natural frequencies are computed using the ROM. Subsequently, an ANN surrogate model is trained to capture the nonlinear mapping between uncertain input parameters and modal frequencies, enabling rapid prediction across the stochastic parameter space. The proposed approach is employed to perform comprehensive uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analyses, identifying the dominant parameters influencing each modal frequency. Results demonstrate that the combined ROM-ANN methodology achieves high predictive accuracy with significantly reduced computational effort, offering an effective tool for uncertainty-aware dynamic analysis and design optimization of integrated blisk–shaft rotors. This work advances the integration of machine learning techniques with classical structural dynamics for robust aero-engine rotor design under uncertainty.

The present study assessed the environmental impacts due to bitumen production in India using life cycle assessment approach. The impacts were calculated for production of 1 t of bitumen and system boundary covered extraction of resources, processing at refinery, transportation of bitumen and storage at the production site. In this study, five scenarios were considered to estimate the impacts reduction assuming different future electricity mix and thermal energy source. Crude oil extraction phase had contributed highest (91%) followed by refinery phase (4%), then transportation (3%) and at last storage of bitumen (2%). The normalization results found that the bitumen production had highest impacts on abiotic depletion fossil and lowest impact on eutrophication. Scenario S4 had the least environmental impacts and provided the overall reductions of 33% compared to the baseline scenario. Scenario S4 reduced the impacts significantly on acidification (51%), eutrophication (30%), and human toxicity (71%), but the reductions were not significant on global warming (11%) and increased the impacts on abiotic depletion fossil (1%). The results of sensitivity analysis found that thermal energy obtained from hard coal consumed during bitumen production is the most sensitive parameter for all the impact categories. The uncertainty analysis showed that the results of this study are reliable and had standard deviation less than 5% for all the impact categories. The findings of the present study will help the decision makers and concerned authorities to reduce the environmental impacts from bitumen production in India.

Paleoclimate observations constitute the only constraint on climate behavior prior to the instrumental era. However, such observations only provide indirect (proxy) constraints on physical variables. Proxy system models aim to improve the interpretation of such observations and better quantify their inherent uncertainties. However, existing models are currently scattered in the literature, making their integration difficult. Here, we present a comprehensive modeling framework for proxy systems, named PRYSM. For this initial iteration, we focus on water‐isotope based climate proxies in ice cores, corals, tree ring cellulose, and speleothem calcite. We review modeling approaches for each proxy class, and pair them with an isotope‐enabled climate simulation to illustrate the new scientific insights that may be gained from this framework. Applications include parameter sensitivity analysis, the quantification of archive‐specific processes on the recorded climate signal, and the quantification of how chronological uncertainties affect signal detection, demonstrating the utility of PRYSM for a broad array of climate studies. Key Points: A new modeling framework for paleoclimate proxies is proposed (PRYSM) PRYSM bridges the gap between GCMs and paleoclimate observations PRYSM may improve interpretation and uncertainty quantification of paleodata