Explore the vast range of titles available.

Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403–540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18–25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49–2.63). Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation.

We improve upon the Pissarides-Weber method for estimating tax evasion among the self-employed by utilizing unique register-based consumption measures from the Swedish and Finnish mandatory registers for pleasure boats. This allows for more detailed and statistically powered analyses than survey-based applications. Our results indicate overall levels of hidden incomes that are in line with previous studies. However, the functional form analysis shows that the estimated sizes of underreporting in absolute monetary amounts are almost constant over reported income levels, whereas previous studies have assumed that the underreporting is proportional to income. The results from the preference analysis—in which we compare households that will become self-employed in the near future with households that will remain wage earners—are mixed; the two types of households have insignificant (Finland) or economically small (Sweden) preference differences. However, when we use engine power as a price proxy, the preference differences are larger in both countries.Plain English SummaryConsumption of pleasure boats reveal tax evasion by the self-employed. We find that self-employed households are substantially more likely to own a pleasure boat than employee households, holding income constant, indicating income underreporting. Households that become self-employed in the near future, however, are only marginally more likely to own a boat. This suggests that differences in boat ownership are not mainly due to preference differences. We also find that underreporting is relatively constant in absolute monetary terms over the reported income distribution. Policy implications from this are (a) that the case for subsidizing entrepreneurship using public funds is weakened, as we can be more confident that actual self-employment income is higher than reported income and (b) that the income of self-employed with low household incomes may be considerably higher than reported, meaning that that the actual income distribution is less unequal compared to the reported income distribution.

Moral disengagement (MD) is the process by which individuals mitigate the consequences of their own violations of moral standards. Although MD is understood to be co-determined by culture norms, no study has yet explored the extent to which MD applied to safety at work (JS-MD) fosters safety violations (e.g., accident underreporting), nor the role of organizational culture as a predictor of JS-MD. The current study seeks to address this gap in the literature by examining individual-(MD) and organizational-level (culture) factors that explain why employees fail to report workplace accidents. We tested a latent variable structural model positing organizational culture typologies (autocratic, bureaucratic, clan-patronage, technocratic, and cooperative) as predictors of JS-MD, which in turn is expected to mediate the relationship with accident underreporting. Using data from 1033 employees in 28 Italian organizations, findings suggest that bureaucratic safety culture was related to lower levels of JS-MD, whereas technocratic safety culture was related to greater JS-MD. In turn, JS-MD positively predicted employee accident underreporting and fully mediated the relationship between culture and underreporting. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed in light of the increasing focus on underreporting as well as the adverse individual and organizational consequences of failing to report workplace accidents.

Hate crimes are becoming a significant criminological issue and a priority in many political agendas. One of the biggest problems is the low reporting rate to police all over countries. This article presents results of an online victimization survey conducted by the Spanish National Office against Hate Crimes in 2020-21. The study aims to understand underreporting in the Spanish context, which may be also useful to guide strategies to combat hate crimes with similar characteristics. In this study, we firstly found that only 10% of the victims have reported their crime to the criminal justice system, being therefore around 90% the black figure or base Spanish underreporting rate in hate crimes. Besides, we analysed if there were significant differences between reporting and non-reporting victims in sociodemographic characteristics and specific questions of the survey. Significant differences in the likelihood of reporting have been discovered in the level of education, employment status, having been the victim of a hate crime in the last five years, the relationship between perpetrator and victim, and the seriousness of the crime. With the findings we may understand better hate crimes and lead to better policy strategies to combat intolerance in democratic countries.

CONTEXT Contraceptive failure rates measure a woman's probability of becoming pregnant while using a contraceptive. Information about these rates enables couples to make informed contraceptive choices. Failure rates were last estimated for 2002, and social and economic changes that have occurred since then necessitate a reestimation. METHODS To estimate failure rates for the most commonly used reversible methods in the United States, data from the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth were used; some 15,728 contraceptive use intervals, contributed by 6,683 women, were analyzed. Data from the Guttmacher Institute's 2008 Abortion Patient Survey were used to adjust for abortion underreporting. Kaplan‐Meier methods were used to estimate the associated single‐decrement probability of failure by duration of use. Failure rates were compared with those from 1995 and 2002. RESULTS Long‐acting reversible contraceptives (the IUD and the implant) had the lowest failure rates of all methods (1%), while condoms and withdrawal carried the highest probabilities of failure (13% and 20%, respectively). However, the failure rate for the condom had declined significantly since 1995 (from 18%), as had the failure rate for all hormonal methods combined (from 8% to 6%). The failure rate for all reversible methods combined declined from 12% in 2002 to 10% in 2006–2010. CONCLUSIONS These broad‐based declines in failure rates reverse a long‐term pattern of minimal change. Future research should explore what lies behind these trends, as well as possibilities for further improvements.

Background. Previous reviews have demonstrated a higher risk of suicide attempts for lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) persons (sexual minorities), compared with heterosexual groups, but these were restricted to general population studies, thereby excluding individuals sampled through LGB community venues. Each sampling strategy, however, has particular methodological strengths and limitations. For instance, general population probability studies have defined sampling frames but are prone to information bias associated with underreporting of LGB identities. By contrast, LGB community surveys may support disclosure of sexuality but overrepresent individuals with strong LGB community attachment. Objectives. To reassess the burden of suicide-related behavior among LGB adults, directly comparing estimates derived from population- versus LGB community–based samples. Search methods. In 2014, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, and Scopus databases for articles addressing suicide-related behavior (ideation, attempts) among sexual minorities. Selection criteria. We selected quantitative studies of sexual minority adults conducted in nonclinical settings in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. Data collection and analysis. Random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression assessed for a difference in prevalence of suicide-related behavior by sample type, adjusted for study or sample-level variables, including context (year, country), methods (medium, response rate), and subgroup characteristics (age, gender, sexual minority construct). We examined residual heterogeneity by using τ 2 . Main results. We pooled 30 cross-sectional studies, including 21 201 sexual minority adults, generating the following lifetime prevalence estimates of suicide attempts: 4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3%, 5%) for heterosexual respondents to population surveys, 11% (95% CI = 8%, 15%) for LGB respondents to population surveys, and 20% (95% CI = 18%, 22%) for LGB respondents to community surveys ( Figure 1 ). The difference in LGB estimates by sample type persisted after we accounted for covariates with meta-regression. Sample type explained 33% of the between-study variability. Author’s conclusions. Regardless of sample type examined, sexual minorities had a higher lifetime prevalence of suicide attempts than heterosexual persons; however, the magnitude of this disparity was contingent upon sample type. Community-based surveys of LGB people suggest that 20% of sexual minority adults have attempted suicide. Public health implications. Accurate estimates of sexual minority health disparities are necessary for public health monitoring and research. Most data describing these disparities are derived from 2 sample types, which yield different estimates of the lifetime prevalence of suicide attempts. Additional studies should explore the differential effects of selection and information biases on the 2 predominant sampling approaches used to understand sexual minority health.

Violence against women in politics is increasingly recognized around the world as a significant barrier to women’s political participation, following a troubling rise in reports of assault, intimidation, and abuse directed at female politicians. Yet conceptual ambiguities remain as to the exact contours of this phenomenon. In this article, we seek to strengthen its theoretical, empirical, and methodological foundations. We propose that the presence of bias against women in political roles—originating in structural violence, employing cultural violence, and resulting in symbolic violence—distinguishes this phenomenon from other forms of political violence. We identify five types of violence against women in politics—physical, psychological, sexual, economic, and semiotic—and three methodological challenges related to underreporting, comparing men’s and women’s experiences, and intersectionality. Inspired by the literature on hate crimes, we develop an empirical approach for identifying cases of violence against women in politics, offering six criteria to ascertain whether an attack was potentially motivated by gender bias. We apply this framework to analyze three cases: the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, and the murder of Jo Cox. We conclude with the negative implications of violence against women in politics and point to emerging solutions around the globe.

Alcohol is a leading cause of premature mortality; however, awareness of this and of some specific risks is low. Survey-based estimates of drinking at risk levels suffer from substantial underreporting. We show that alcohol use reported in the 2019 Canadian Alcohol and Drug Survey (CADS) accounted for just 38.06% of recorded alcohol consumption. This contributes to alcohol’s risks being minimized, by researchers, the public, and policymakers. The new Canada’s Guidance on Alcohol and Health (CGAH) defines “moderate risk” as 3 to 6 drinks/week for men and women. Employing published methods to correct for underreporting in the CADS, we estimate that in 2019 the proportion of drinkers at moderate risk of long-term harm to be 50.43% (up from 23.34% without adjustment). We further estimate that, collectively, these drinkers consumed 90.17% of all drinks consumed that year. Similarly, 92.82% of drinks were consumed on days when upper limits for short-term harm (2 drinks/day) were exceeded (up from 65.02% without adjustment). We conclude that adjustments for underreporting of alcohol use in Canada need to be incorporated routinely in public health monitoring. This might help mitigate the widespread underestimation of risky alcohol use as well as the neglect of this public health issue by policymakers.

When studying sensitive issues, including corruption, prejudice, and sexual behavior, researchers have increasingly relied upon indirect questioning techniques to mitigate such known problems of direct survey questions as underreporting and nonresponse. However, there have been surprisingly few empirical validation studies of these indirect techniques because the information required to verify the resulting estimates is often difficult to access. This article reports findings from the first comprehensive validation study of indirect methods. We estimate whether people voted for an anti-abortion referendum held during the 2011 Mississippi General Election using direct questioning and three popular indirect methods: list experiment, endorsement experiment, and randomized response. We then validate these estimates against the official election outcome. While direct questioning leads to significant underestimation of sensitive votes against the referendum, indirect survey techniques yield estimates much closer to the actual vote count, with endorsement experiment and randomized response yielding the least bias.

In this article, the authors discuss and analyze how regime type and state capacity shape the abilities and incentives of political leaders to respond to covid-19. They suggest that a complementary relationship exists between democracy and state capacity, both in terms of mitigating the adverse consequences of the pandemic, such as deaths, and the honest reporting of these consequences. Using a recent global data set on officially reported covid-19 deaths and estimated deaths based on excess mortality, the authors present evidence that supports different implications from their argument. Empirically, democracies have much higher officially reported death tolls than do autocracies, a result driven by underreporting in autocracies. In high-capacity states, democracies have fewer covid-19 deaths than do autocracies. State capacity generally seems to mitigate both deaths and underreporting, but these relationships are stronger in democracies. Countries that combine democracy with high state capacity experience fewer covid-19 deaths and provide more accurate tolls of the pandemic’s consequences.