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PurposeTo examine the joint associations of civil unrest and COVID-19 with probable anxiety and depression during the first half of 2020 in Hong Kong. Associations were compared between persons with low or high assets.MethodsA population-representative sample of 4011 Hong Kong Chinese residents aged 15 years or older were recruited between February and May 2020. Respondents reported current anxiety and depressive symptoms, unrest stress, COVID-19 stress, assets (savings and home ownership), and demographics.ResultsStress due to unrest and COVID-19 was associated with higher prevalence of probable anxiety and depression; persons with both stressors had higher prevalence. This pattern was consistent among persons with low or high assets, but the probabilities of mental disorder were substantially higher among persons with fewer assets.ConclusionsThe effect of stressors on probable anxiety and depression are cumulative: persons with stress due to civil unrest and to COVID-19 reported more mental disorders than persons with stress due to only one, or none of these factors. Overall high assets appear to buffer the consequences of stressors, lowering the risk of mental disorder.

La Fossa Caldera at Vulcano (Italy) has been showing signs of unrest since September 2021. To investigate this phenomenon, we conducted an analysis of geodetic and seismological data from July to December 2021. In particular, we analyzed Multi Temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Navigation Satellite System data, showing a pronounced elliptical uplift signal, which we elaborated using analytical source modeling. Additionally, seismic data were used to identify seismicity associated with hydrothermal system activity and assess its temporal evolution. The results indicate that the observed deformation is consistent with the expansion of the hydrothermal system within the La Fossa Caldera. These findings align with the analysis of seismic data, revealing signals indicative of hydrothermal activity, such as Very Long Period events. The results suggest that the ongoing phenomenon since 2021 represents a hydrothermal unrest, similar to the one observed during the late 1970s to early 1990s. Plain Language Summary La Fossa Caldera at Vulcano Island, part of the Aeolian Islands archipelago in Italy, has shown an increased volcanic activity since September 2021. This activity is characterized by an increase in fumarole temperatures, massive gas emissions, as well as a marked uplift of the crater area, accompanied by an increase in seismicity. To investigate the nature of these phenomena, an analysis of ground deformation data obtained from Multi Temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Navigation Satellite System measurements is presented. Additionally, a detailed analysis of data recorded by the seismic network on Vulcano Island has been conducted. The results indicate that these anomalies can be attributed to the expansion of the hydrothermal system, a phenomenon previously observed in the late 1970s and early 1990s. Key Points Multi Temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar enabled investigating localized ground deformation in the La Fossa Caldera The analysis of local seismicity indicates it is associated with the injection of fluids into conduit‐like structures The modeled source of ground deformation associated with the 2021 unrest is consistent with the pressurization of the hydrothermal system

Significance There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict. Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

The study of security implications of climate change has developed rapidly from a nascent area of academic inquiry into an important and thriving research field that traverses epistemological and disciplinary boundaries. Here, we take stock of scientific progress by benchmarking the latest decade of empirical research against seven core research priorities collectively emphasized in 35 recent literature reviews. On the basis of this evaluation, we discuss key contributions of this special issue. Overall, we find that the research community has made important strides in specifying and evaluating plausible indirect causal pathways between climatic conditions and a wide set of conflict-related outcomes and the scope conditions that shape this relationship. Contributions to this special issue push the research frontier further along these lines. Jointly, they demonstrate significant climate impacts on social unrest in urban settings; they point to the complexity of the climate–migration–unrest link; they identify how agricultural production patterns shape conflict risk; they investigate understudied outcomes in relation to climate change, such as interstate claims and individual trust; and they discuss the relevance of this research for user groups across academia and beyond. We find that the long-term implications of gradual climate change and conflict potential of policy responses are important remaining research gaps that should guide future research.

Pre‐eruptive signals at the crater lake‐bearing Mt. Ruapehu (New Zealand) are either absent or hard to identify. Here, we report on geophysical anomalies arising from hydrothermal unrest (HTU) and magmatic unrest (MU) using multiphysics numerical modeling. Distinct spatio‐temporal anomalies are revealed when jointly solving for ground displacements and changes in gravitational and electrical potential fields for a set of subsurface disturbances including magma recharge and anomalous hydrothermal flow. Protracted hydrothermal injections induce measurable surface displacements (>0.5 cm) at Ruapehu's summit plateau, while magmatic pressurization (5–20 MPa) results in ground displacements below detection limits. Source density changes of 10 kg/m3 (MU simulations) and CO2 fluxes between 2,150 and 3,600 t/d (HTU simulations) induce resolvable residual gravity changes between +8 and −8 μGal at the plateau. Absolute self‐potential (SP) anomalies are predicted to vary between 0.3 and 2.5 mV for all unrest simulations and exceed the detection limit of conventional electric surveying. Parameter space exploration indicates that variations of up to 400% in the Biot‐Willis coefficient produce negligible differences in surface displacement in MU simulations, but strongly impact surface displacement in HTU simulations. Our interpretation of the findings is that monitoring of changes in SP and gravity should permit insights into MU at Ruapehu, while HTU is best characterized using ground displacements, residual gravity changes and SP anomalies. Our findings are useful to inform multiparameter monitoring strategies at Ruapehu and other volcanoes hosting crater lakes. Plain Language Summary Eruptions at Mt. Ruapehu in New Zealand often occur without any warning amid an absence of what are called pre‐eruptive geophysical signals. In order to study the detectability of relevant geophysical signals, we use physics‐based models to simulate two distinct subsurface processes at Mt. Ruapehu: magma accumulation and flow of hydrothermal fluids. Both processes involve fluid flow, density variations and pressure changes in the ground and have the potential to trigger eruptive activity. Here we identify distinct measurable sets of geophysical signals from either subsurface process: changes in the electrical and gravitational potential fields, or surface deformation. Our study highlights the benefit of computer models to provide useful information on the link between subsurface processes and measurable geophysical signals prior to eruptive activity. Our findings may have implications for volcano monitoring efforts at Mt. Ruapehu and other crater lake volcanoes. Key Points Multiphysics simulations to study unrest processes at Mt. Ruapehu Spatio‐temporal variations in self‐potential and gravity changes identified as indicators of magmatic unrest Hydrothermal unrest induces resolvable ground displacements, and changes in gravity and self‐potential

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of how disasters, natural and human induced disasters, terrorist attacks, civil and political unrest and other crises affect tourism positively and negatively. Design/methodology/approach This paper briefly analyzes case studies to establish the underpinnings of tourism disruption in the midst of disasters and crises. Findings This paper outlines how various crises and disasters affect the tourism industry and what processes can be used to enhance or restructure the industry through communication plans, the media and stakeholder collaborative efforts. Originality/value While disasters and crises are not new, this paper offers a series of recommendations and insights to help quickly restore a normal state of tourism and hospitality functioning and build a more resilient path for tourism for generations to come.

Does activity on hard-right social media lead to hard-right civil unrest? If so, why? We created a spatial panel dataset comprising hard-right social media use and incidents of unrest across the United States from January 2020 through January 2021. Using spatial regression analyses with core-based statistical area (CBSA) and month fixed effects, we find that greater CBSA-level hard-right social media activity in a given month is associated with an increase in subsequent unrest. The results of robustness checks, placebo tests, alternative analytical approaches, and sensitivity analyses support this finding. To examine why hard-right social media activity predicts unrest, we draw on an original dataset of users’ shared content and status in the online community. Analyses of these data suggest that hard-right social media shift users’ perceptions of norms, increasing the likelihood they will participate in contentious events they once considered taboo. Our study sheds new light on social media’s offline effects, as well as the consequences of increasingly common hard-right platforms.

In times of increasing civil unrest and displacement, ensuring the continuity of education necessitates innovative solutions. This article advocates for the use of data-free applications to prevent educational exclusion. It examines the challenges faced by displaced and marginalised students, including disrupted educational infrastructure, limited access to quality instruction, psychological trauma and an exacerbated digital divide. By emphasising the imperative of social justice through inclusive education, the article posits that data-free applications can serve as critical tools in low-bandwidth or offline environments. These applications can bridge connectivity gaps, providing access to communication channels, support services and educational resources. By evaluating the efficacy of such applications, 2620 Google reviews of the South African data-free Moya application were collected. Thematic analysis was used for reviews during the COVID-19 pandemic, as this was a time of educational disruption. Findings reveal that users appreciate the application’s utility for communication and resource access in data-constrained contexts. However, challenges related to message delivery, profile updates, account verification, feature access and network reliability were also noted. Despite these issues, the application’s ability to provide data-free communication shows potential. This paper emphasises how data-free applications might revolutionise teaching in times of crisis. To guarantee that every student has the chance to learn, especially in the face of hardship, it requires all parties involved to work together. Education is a vital lifeline in times of adversity, not a luxury. 

In times of increasing civil unrest and displacement, ensuring the continuity of education necessitates innovative solutions. This article advocates for the use of data-free applications to prevent educational exclusion. It examines the challenges faced by displaced and marginalised students, including disrupted educational infrastructure, limited access to quality instruction, psychological trauma and an exacerbated digital divide. By emphasising the imperative of social justice through inclusive education, the article posits that data-free applications can serve as critical tools in low-bandwidth or offline environments. These applications can bridge connectivity gaps, providing access to communication channels, support services and educational resources. By evaluating the efficacy of such applications, 2620 Google reviews of the South African data-free Moya application were collected. Thematic analysis was used for reviews during the COVID-19 pandemic, as this was a time of educational disruption. Findings reveal that users appreciate the application’s utility for communication and resource access in data-constrained contexts. However, challenges related to message delivery, profile updates, account verification, feature access and network reliability were also noted. Despite these issues, the application’s ability to provide data-free communication shows potential. This paper emphasises how data-free applications might revolutionise teaching in times of crisis. To guarantee that every student has the chance to learn, especially in the face of hardship, it requires all parties involved to work together. Education is a vital lifeline in times of adversity, not a luxury.