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In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems.

The overturning pathways for the surface-ventilated North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and the diffusively formed Indian Deep Water (IDW) and Pacific Deep Water (PDW) are intertwined. The global overturning circulation (GOC) includes both large wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean and important internal diapycnal transformation in the deep Indian and Pacific Oceans. All three northern-source Deep Waters (NADW, IDW, PDW) move southward and upwell in the Southern Ocean. AABW is produced from the denser, salty NADW and a portion of the lighter, low oxygen IDW/PDW that upwells above and north of NADW. The remaining upwelled IDW/PDW stays near the surface, moving into the subtropical thermoclines, and ultimately sources about one-third of the NADW. Another third of the NADW comes from AABW upwelling in the Atlantic. The remaining third comes from AABW upwelling to the thermocline in the Indian-Pacific. Atlantic cooling associated with NADW formation (0.3 PW north of 32°S; 1 PW = 1015W) and Southern Ocean cooling associated with AABW formation (0.4 PW south of 32°S) are balanced mostly by 0.6 PW of deep diffusive heating in the Indian and Pacific Oceans; only 0.1 PW is gained at the surface in the Southern Ocean. Thus, while an adiabatic model of NADW global overturning driven by winds in the Southern Ocean, with buoyancy added only at the surface in the Southern Ocean, is a useful dynamical idealization, the associated heat changes require full participation of the diffusive Indian and Pacific Oceans, with a basinaveraged diffusivity on the order of the Munk value of 10⁻⁴ m² s⁻¹.

In 11 studies, we found that participants typically did not enjoy spending 6 to 15 minutes in a room by themselves with nothing to do but think, that they enjoyed doing mundane external activities much more, and that many preferred to administer electric shocks to themselves instead of being left alone with their thoughts. Most people seem to prefer to be doing something rather than nothing, even if that something is negative.

Of all the major coastal upwelling systems in the world’s oceans, the Benguela, located off southwest Africa, is the one that climate models find hardest to simulate well. This paper investigates the sensitivity of upwelling processes, and of sea surface temperature (SST), in this region to resolution of the climate model and to the offshore wind structure. The Community Climate System Model (version 4) is used here, together with the Regional Ocean Modeling System. The main result is that a realistic wind stress curl at the eastern boundary,anda high-resolution ocean model, are required to well simulate the Benguela upwelling system. When the wind stress curl is too broad (as with a 1° atmosphere model or coarser), a Sverdrup balance prevails at the eastern boundary, implying southward ocean transport extending as far as 30°S and warm advection. Higher atmosphere resolution, up to 0.5°, does bring the atmospheric jet closer to the coast, but there can be too strong a wind stress curl. The most realistic representation of the upwelling system is found by adjusting the 0.5° atmosphere model wind structure near the coast toward observations, while using an eddy-resolving ocean model. A similar adjustment applied to a 1° ocean model did not show such improvement. Finally, the remote equatorial Atlantic response to restoring SST in a broad region offshore of Benguela is substantial; however, there is not a large response to correcting SST in the narrow coastal upwelling zone alone.

The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and is found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the interannual signature of the southern annular mode (SAM) on sea surface temperature (SST), onto which the ozone hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift, inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow time-scale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea ice cover year-round. This two-time-scale behavior—rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming—is found in the two coupled models analyzed: one with an idealized geometry and the other with a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the time scale of the transition from cooling to warming and their uncertainties are described. Finally the implications of these results are discussed for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone hole on SST and sea ice extent.

The absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the ocean lowers the pH of the waters. This so-called ocean acidification could have important consequences for marine ecosystems. To better understand the extent of this ocean acidification in coastal waters, we conducted hydrographic surveys along the continental shelf of western North America from central Canada to northern Mexico. We observed seawater that is undersaturated with respect to aragonite upwelling onto large portions of the continental shelf, reaching depths of ∼40 to 120 meters along most transect lines and all the way to the surface on one transect off northern California. Although seasonal upwelling of the undersaturated waters onto the shelf is a natural phenomenon in this region, the ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ has increased the areal extent of the affected area

In the modern climate, the ocean below 2 km is mainly filled by waters sinking into the abyss around Antarctica and in the North Atlantic. Paleoproxies indicate that waters of North Atlantic origin were instead absent below 2 km at the Last Glacial Maximum, resulting in an expansion of the volume occupied by Antarctic origin waters. In this study we show that this rearrangement of deep water masses is dynamically linked to the expansion of summer sea ice around Antarctica. A simple theory further suggests that these deep waters only came to the surface under sea ice, which insulated them from atmospheric forcing, and were weakly mixed with overlying waters, thus being able to store carbon for long times. This unappreciated link between the expansion of sea ice and the appearance of a voluminous and insulated water mass may help quantify the ocean’s role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide on glacial–interglacial timescales. Previous studies pointed to many independent changes in ocean physics to account for the observed swings in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here it is shown that many of these changes are dynamically linked and therefore must co-occur.

The stable carbon isotope ratio of atmospheric CO₂ (δ¹³C atm ) is a key parameter in deciphering past carbon cycle changes. Here we present δ¹³C atm data for the past 24,000 years derived from three independent records from two Antarctic ice cores. We conclude that a pronounced 0.3 per mil decrease in δ¹³C atm during the early déglaciation can be best explained by upwelling of old, carbon-enriched waters in the Southern Ocean. Later in the deglaciation, regrowth of the terrestrial biosphere, changes in sea surface temperature, and ocean circulation governed the S¹³C atm evolution. During the Last Glacial Maximum, δ¹³C atm and atmospheric CO₂ concentration were essentially constant, which suggests that the carbon cycle was in dynamic equilibrium and that the net transfer of carbon to the deep ocean had occurred before then.

The intermittent upwelling hypothesis (IUH) predicts that the strength of ecological subsidies, organismal growth responses, and species interactions will vary unimodally along a gradient of upwelling from persistent downwelling to persistent upwelling, with maximal levels at an intermediate or \"intermittent\" state of upwelling. To test this model, we employed the comparative-experimental method to investigate these processes at 16-44 wave-exposed rocky intertidal sites in Oregon, California, and New Zealand, varying in average upwelling and/or downwelling during spring-summer. As predicted by the IUH, ecological subsidies (phytoplankton abundance, prey recruitment rates), prey responses (barnacle colonization, mussel growth), and species interactions (competition rate, predation rate and effects) were unimodally related to upwelling. On average, unimodal relationships with upwelling magnitude explained ∼50% of the variance in the various processes, and unimodal and monotonic positive relationships against an index of intermittency explained ∼37% of the variance. Regressions among the ecological subsidies and species interactions were used to infer potential ecological linkages that underpinned these patterns. Abundance of phytoplankton was associated with increases in rates of barnacle colonization, intensity of competition and predation, and predation effects, and rates of barnacle recruitment were associated with increases in mussel growth, barnacle colonization, and species interactions. Positive effects on interactions were also seen for rates of colonization, competition, predation, and predation effects. Several responses were saturating or exponential, suggestive of threshold effects. These results suggest that the IUH has geographic generality and are also consistent with earlier arguments that bottom-up effects and propagule subsidies are strongly linked to the dynamics of higher trophic levels, or top-down effects, as well as to nontrophic interactions. The ∼50% of the variance not explained by upwelling is likely due to more regional-to-local influences on the processes examined, and future efforts should focus on incorporating such effects into the IUH.

The appearance of permanent El Niño–like conditions prior to 3 million years ago is founded on sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions that show invariant Pacific warm pool temperatures and negligible equatorial zonal temperature gradients. However, only a few SST records are available, and these are potentially compromised by changes in seawater chemistry, diagenesis, and calibration limitations. For this study, we establish new biomarker-SST records and show that the Pacific warm pool was ∼4°C warmer 12 million years ago. Both the warm pool and cold tongue slowly cooled toward modern conditions while maintaining a zonal temperature gradient of ∼3°C in the late Miocene, which increased during the Plio-Pleistocene. Our results contrast with previous temperature reconstructions that support the supposition of a permanent El Niño–like state.