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"Variability"
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Variability of Morphological Traits of the Generative Shoot of Matthiola Caspica (Busch) Grossh. in Piedmont Dagestan
The paper presents the results of studying the variability of the morphological traits of the generative shoot Matthiola caspica (Busch) Grossh. in Piedmont Dagestan. The material for the study was the life processes of M. caspica of three cenopopulations: Buynaksky (Talgi, 270), Suleiman-Stalsky (Kasumkent, 410 m) and Tabasaransky (Maraga, 520 m) areas. The greatest contribution to the differentiation of cenopopulations by individual components of dispersion in the traits “length inflorescence” (39.9%), “length vegetative features” (38.5%), “number flowers” (37.1%) and index trait “density inflorescences” (16.5%). The distinctions revealed as a result of the discriminates analysis make it possible to select diagnostic characters that introduce specific differences in M. caspica cenopopulations within the Piedmont floristic region. The total accuracy of the classification matrix for the three studied cenopopulations was 82.2%, where the “Maraga” cenopopulation (90.0%) is highly self-identical.
Journal Article
Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability
Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.
Journal Article
Temperature and Precipitation Variance in CMIP5 Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium
Accurate assessments of future climate impacts require realistic simulation of interannual–century-scale temperature and precipitation variability. Here, well-constrained paleoclimate data and the latest generation of Earth system model data are used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial consistency of climate variance distributions across interannual to centennial frequencies. It is found that temperature variance generally increases with time scale in patterns that are spatially consistent among models, especially over the mid- and high-latitude oceans. However, precipitation is similar to white noise across much of the globe. When Earth system model variance is compared to variance generated by simple autocorrelation, it is found that tropical temperature variability in Earth system models is difficult to distinguish from variability generated by simple autocorrelation. By contrast, both forced and unforced Earth system models produce variability distinct from a simple autoregressive process over most high-latitude oceans. This new analysis of tropical paleoclimate records suggests that low-frequency variance dominates the temperature spectrum across the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, but in many Earth system models, interannual variance dominates the simulated central and eastern tropical Pacific temperature spectrum, regardless of forcing. Tropical Pacific model spectra are compared to spectra from the instrumental record, but the short instrumental record likely cannot provide accurate multidecadal–centennial-scale variance estimates. In the coming decades, both forced and natural patterns of decade–century-scale variability will determine climate-related risks. Underestimating low-frequency temperature and precipitation variability may significantly alter our understanding of the projections of these climate impacts.
Journal Article
Strong Oceanic Forcing on Decadal Surface Temperature Variability Over Global Ocean
Sea surface temperature (SST) variability on decadal timescales has been associated with global and regional climate variability and impacts. The mechanisms that drive decadal SST variability, however, remain highly uncertain. Many previous studies have examined the role of atmospheric variability in driving decadal SST variations. Here we assess the strength of oceanic forcing in driving decadal SST variability in observations and state‐of‐the‐art climate models by analyzing the relationship between surface heat flux and SST. We find a largely similar pattern of decadal oceanic forcing across all ocean basins, characterized by oceanic forcing about twice the strength of the atmospheric forcing in the mid‐ and high latitude regions, but comparable or weaker than the atmospheric forcing in the subtropics. The decadal oceanic forcing is hypothesized to be associated with the wind‐driven oceanic circulation, which is common across all ocean basins. Plain Language Summary Decadal variabilities in SST create large climate responses, ranging from heat waves to droughts to enhanced hurricanes. However, there has been considerable uncertainty over whether decadal SST variations are driven primarily by atmospheric forcing or ocean forcing related to ocean circulation. Using a newly developed theoretical framework, we provide the first quantitative estimation of decadal oceanic forcing across the global ocean in observations and state‐of‐the‐art climate model. Our estimation shows that decadal ocean forcing is stronger than the atmospheric forcing by about 2–3 times in the mid‐ and high latitude, but comparable or even weaker than atmospheric forcing in the subtropics. Key Points In the mid‐ and high latitude, decadal oceanic forcing is stronger than atmospheric forcing by about 2–3 times across world ocean basins In the subtropics, decadal oceanic forcing is comparable to or even weaker than atmospheric forcing Decadal oceanic forcing is likely contributed predominantly by the wind‐driven oceanic circulation
Journal Article
Variability of risk factors and diabetes complications
Several studies suggest that, together with glucose variability, the variability of other risk factors, as blood pressure, plasma lipids, heart rate, body weight, and serum uric acid, might play a role in the development of diabetes complications. Moreover, the variability of each risk factor, when contemporarily present, may have additive effects. However, the question is whether variability is causal or a marker. Evidence shows that the quality of care and the attainment of the target impact on the variability of all risk factors. On the other hand, for some of them causality may be considered. Although specific studies are still lacking, it should be useful checking the variability of a risk factor, together with its magnitude out of the normal range, in clinical practice. This can lead to an improvement of the quality of care, which, in turn, could further hesitate in an improvement of risk factors variability.
Journal Article
Plant stoichiometry at different scales: element concentration patterns reflect environment more than genotype
All plant species require at least 16 elements for their growth and survival but the relative requirements and the variability at different organizational scales is not well understood.
We use a fertiliser experiment with six willow (Salix spp.) genotypes to evaluate a methodology based on Euclidian distances for stoichiometric analysis of the variability in leaf nutrient relations of twelve of those (C, N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Mn, S, Fe, Zn, B, Cu) plus Na and Al.
Differences in availability of the elements in the environment was the major driver of variation. Variability between leaves within a plant or between individuals of the same genotype growing in close proximity was as large as variability between genotypes.
Elements could be grouped by influence on growth: N, P, S and Mn concentrations follow each other and increase with growth rate; K, Ca and Mg uptake follow the increase in biomass; but uptake of Fe, B, Zn and Al seems to be limited. The position of Cu lies between the first two groups. Only for Na is there a difference in element concentrations between genotypes. The three groups of elements can be associated with different biochemical functions.
Journal Article
The Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO: a Review
Purpose of Review
This paper reviews recent progress in understanding of the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) and its influence on the timing, magnitude, flavor, and intensity of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Recent Findings
The NPMM is a seasonally evolving mode of coupled climate variability and features several distinct opportunities to influence ENSO. They include: (1) A Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) feedback-driven propagation of surface anomalies onto the equator during boreal spring, (2) Trade Wind Charging (TWC) of equatorial subsurface heat content by NPMM-related surface wind stress curl anomalies in boreal winter and early spring, (3) The reflection of NPMM-forced ocean Rossby waves off the western boundary in boreal summer, and (4) A Gill-like atmospheric response associated with anomalous deep convection in boreal summer and fall. The South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) also significantly modulates ENSO, and its interactions with the NPMM may contribute to ENSO diversity. Together, the NPMM and SPMM are also important components of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability; however, future research is needed to improve understanding on these timescales.
Summary
Since 1950, the boreal spring NPMM skillfully predicts about 15–30% of observed winter ENSO variability. Improving simulated NPMM-ENSO relationships in forecast models may reduce ENSO forecasting error. Recent studies have begun to explore the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the NPMM-ENSO relationship; however, the results are inconclusive.
Journal Article
Understanding the Role of Ocean Dynamics in Midlatitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability Using a Simple Stochastic Climate Model
In a recent paper, we argued that ocean dynamics increase the variability of midlatitude sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on monthly to interannual time scales, but act to damp lower-frequency SST variability over broad midlatitude regions. Here, we use two configurations of a simple stochastic climate model to provide new insights into this important aspect of climate variability. The simplest configuration includes the forcing and damping of SST variability by observed surface heat fluxes only, and the more complex configuration includes forcing and damping by ocean processes, which are estimated indirectly from monthly observations. It is found that the simple model driven only by the observed surface heat fluxes generally produces midlatitude SST power spectra that are too red compared to observations. Including ocean processes in the model reduces this discrepancy by whitening the midlatitude SST spectra. In particular, ocean processes generally increase the SST variance on <2-yr time scales and decrease it on >2-yr time scales. This happens because oceanic forcing increases the midlatitude SST variance across many time scales, but oceanic damping outweighs oceanic forcing on >2-yr time scales, particularly away from the western boundary currents. The whitening of midlatitude SST variability by ocean processes also operates in NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM). That is, midlatitude SST spectra are generally redder when the same atmospheric model is coupled to a slab rather than dynamically active ocean model. Overall, the results suggest that forcing and damping by ocean processes play essential roles in driving midlatitude SST variability.
Journal Article
Model‐Dependent Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Modulations on North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Decadal Prediction
Previous studies suggested that Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) modulations on pan‐Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability and prediction are model‐dependent. These results were mainly based on SST forcing experiments in which AMV‐related Atlantic SST anomalies were prescribed. However, the AMV itself is also model‐dependent, but its influences on the Pacific remain unclear. Here, we use multi‐model fully coupled experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with observations, to study the model‐dependent AMV trans‐basin effects. We found that AMV strength is a key factor: Stronger (Weaker) model AMV than observations overestimates (underestimates) SST response and decadal prediction skills, mainly in the North Pacific. The reason is that stronger positive phased AMV, for example, leads to higher sea level pressure anomalies over the North Pacific, which lifts sea surface height and deepens thermocline to warm SST. Our study highlights the necessity to improve simulations of AMV strength. Plain Language Summary Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) decadal variability and prediction are important for economy and environment. The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) was thought to significantly influence Pacific SST variability and prediction. However, the results of previous studies were model‐dependent. In this paper, we use fully coupled experiments of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to study what contributes to the model dependency. We found that the strength of the AMV is a key factor influencing AMV trans‐basin modulations on SST variability and decadal prediction, mainly in the North Pacific Ocean. The related mechanisms are discussed. Our paper sheds light on the way to improve North Pacific SST decadal prediction. Key Points Climate models show a strong inter‐model spread of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) strength Models with stronger (weaker) AMV than observations overestimate (underestimate) North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response and decadal prediction The North Pacific SST response is primarily forced by AMV‐induced wind stress curl and ocean dynamics
Journal Article