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Accurate prediction of an individual’s phenotype from their DNA sequence is one of the great promises of genomics and precision medicine. We extend a powerful individual-level data Bayesian multiple regression model (BayesR) to one that utilises summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), SBayesR. In simulation and cross-validation using 12 real traits and 1.1 million variants on 350,000 individuals from the UK Biobank, SBayesR improves prediction accuracy relative to commonly used state-of-the-art summary statistics methods at a fraction of the computational resources. Furthermore, using summary statistics for variants from the largest GWAS meta-analysis ( n ≈ 700, 000) on height and BMI, we show that on average across traits and two independent data sets that SBayesR improves prediction R 2 by 5.2% relative to LDpred and by 26.5% relative to clumping and p  value thresholding. Various approaches are being used for polygenic prediction including Bayesian multiple regression methods that require access to individual-level genotype data. Here, the authors extend BayesR to utilise GWAS summary statistics (SBayesR) and show that it outperforms other summary statistic-based methods.

Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous genetic loci for spirometic measures of pulmonary function, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)), and its ratio to forced vital capacity (FEV(1)/FVC). Given that cigarette smoking adversely affects pulmonary function, we conducted genome-wide joint meta-analyses (JMA) of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and SNP-by-smoking (ever-smoking or pack-years) associations on FEV(1) and FEV(1)/FVC across 19 studies (total N = 50,047). We identified three novel loci not previously associated with pulmonary function. SNPs in or near DNER (smallest P(JMA = )5.00×10(-11)), HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DQA2 (smallest P(JMA = )4.35×10(-9)), and KCNJ2 and SOX9 (smallest P(JMA = )1.28×10(-8)) were associated with FEV(1)/FVC or FEV(1) in meta-analysis models including SNP main effects, smoking main effects, and SNP-by-smoking (ever-smoking or pack-years) interaction. The HLA region has been widely implicated for autoimmune and lung phenotypes, unlike the other novel loci, which have not been widely implicated. We evaluated DNER, KCNJ2, and SOX9 and found them to be expressed in human lung tissue. DNER and SOX9 further showed evidence of differential expression in human airway epithelium in smokers compared to non-smokers. Our findings demonstrated that joint testing of SNP and SNP-by-environment interaction identified novel loci associated with complex traits that are missed when considering only the genetic main effects.

Background A polymorphism (rs35705950) 3 kb upstream of MUC5B, the gene encoding Mucin 5 subtype B, has been shown to be associated with familial and sporadic idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We set out to verify whether this variant is also a risk factor for fibrotic lung disease in other settings and to confirm the published findings in a UK Caucasian IPF population. Methods Caucasian UK healthy controls (n=416) and patients with IPF (n=110), sarcoidosis (n=180) and systemic sclerosis (SSc) (n=440) were genotyped to test for association. The SSc and sarcoidosis cohorts were subdivided according to the presence or absence of fibrotic lung disease. To assess correlation with disease progression, time to decline in forced vital capacity and/or lung carbon monoxide transfer factor was used in the IPF and SSc groups, while a persistent decline at 4 years since baseline was evaluated in patients with sarcoidosis. Results A significant association of the MUC5B promoter single nucleotide polymorphism with IPF (p=2.04×10–17; OR 4.90, 95% CI 3.42 to 7.03) was confirmed in this UK population. The MUC5B variant was not a risk factor for lung fibrosis in patients with SSc or sarcoidosis and did not predict more rapidly progressive lung disease in any of the groups. Rather, a trend for a longer time to decline in forced vital capacity was observed in patients with IPF. Conclusions We confirm the MUC5B variant association with IPF. We did not observe an association with lung fibrosis in the context of SSc or sarcoidosis, potentially highlighting fundamental differences in genetic susceptibility, although the limited subgroup numbers do not allow a definitive exclusion of an association.

Stephanie London, Martin Tobin and colleagues report meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for forced vital capacity (FVC), a spirometric measure of pulmonary function that reflects lung volume. They identify six regions newly associated with FVC and demonstrate that candidate genes at these loci are expressed in lung tissue and primary lung cells. Forced vital capacity (FVC), a spirometric measure of pulmonary function, reflects lung volume and is used to diagnose and monitor lung diseases. We performed genome-wide association study meta-analysis of FVC in 52,253 individuals from 26 studies and followed up the top associations in 32,917 additional individuals of European ancestry. We found six new regions associated at genome-wide significance ( P < 5 × 10 −8 ) with FVC in or near EFEMP1 , BMP6 , MIR129-2 – HSD17B12 , PRDM11 , WWOX and KCNJ2 . Two loci previously associated with spirometric measures ( GSTCD and PTCH1 ) were related to FVC. Newly implicated regions were followed up in samples from African-American, Korean, Chinese and Hispanic individuals. We detected transcripts for all six newly implicated genes in human lung tissue. The new loci may inform mechanisms involved in lung development and the pathogenesis of restrictive lung disease.

Abstract Rationale Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified loci influencing lung function, but fewer genes influencing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are known. Objectives Perform meta-analyses of GWAS for airflow obstruction, a key pathophysiologic characteristic of COPD assessed by spirometry, in population-based cohorts examining all participants, ever smokers, never smokers, asthma-free participants, and more severe cases. Methods Fifteen cohorts were studied for discovery (3,368 affected; 29,507 unaffected), and a population-based family study and a meta-analysis of case-control studies were used for replication and regional follow-up (3,837 cases; 4,479 control subjects). Airflow obstruction was defined as FEV1 and its ratio to FVC (FEV1/FVC) both less than their respective lower limits of normal as determined by published reference equations. Measurements and Main Results The discovery meta-analyses identified one region on chromosome 15q25.1 meeting genome-wide significance in ever smokers that includes AGPHD1, IREB2, and CHRNA5/CHRNA3 genes. The region was also modestly associated among never smokers. Gene expression studies confirmed the presence of CHRNA5/3 in lung, airway smooth muscle, and bronchial epithelial cells. A single-nucleotide polymorphism in HTR4, a gene previously related to FEV1/FVC, achieved genome-wide statistical significance in combined meta-analysis. Top single-nucleotide polymorphisms in ADAM19, RARB, PPAP2B, and ADAMTS19 were nominally replicated in the COPD meta-analysis. Conclusions These results suggest an important role for the CHRNA5/3 region as a genetic risk factor for airflow obstruction that may be independent of smoking and implicate the HTR4 gene in the etiology of airflow obstruction.

BackgroundThe association between lower adult lung function and increased cardiovascular comorbidity has not been adequately explained. We investigated whether shared developmental signalling pathways, critical to lung development and repair, could partly explain it.MethodsIn UK Biobank (UKB), we performed pairwise colocalisation analysis of variants in 55 lung development genes associated with adult forced vital capacity (FVC) or forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/FVC, to see if these are also associated with coronary heart disease (CHD), blood pressure (systolic, diastolic, hypertension), pulse pressure, Arterial Stiffness index and carotid intima-media thickness. For CHD, we meta-analysed data from UKB and the CARDIoGRAM consortium.ResultsWe found that 12 of the 55 genes shared the same variant between one (or more) lung function trait and one (or more) cardiovascular trait (H4colocalisation). The direction of effects was always in keeping with our hypothesis (lower lung function–higher cardiovascular risk) for FVC, but not always for FEV1/FVC. The seven signals for hypertension and CHD all replicated nominally in the FinnGen study, while replication was poor in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study. In addition, we found a further 10 genes where genetic associations with lung function and cardiovascular traits were within the same gene but involved different variants (H3 colocalisation). Interestingly, six of all 22 genes (H4 and H3 colocalisation) were novel for cardiovascular traits; four replicated in FinnGen, three in CKB.ConclusionLung function and cardiovascular traits have shared developmental pathways that may partly explain why lower lung function, especially FVC, is associated with increased cardiovascular risk.

Self-reported race or ethnic group is used to determine reference standards in the prediction of lung function. This study suggests that the inclusion of genetic measures of African ancestry may improve predictions of lung function. Studies investigating the clinical usefulness of genetic markers of ancestry in determining the severity of pulmonary disease seem to be warranted. The use of racial or ethnic classification in medical practice and research has been the subject of debate. 1 – 3 Race and ethnicity are complex constructs incorporating social, cultural, and genetic factors. Currently, pulmonary-function testing is one of the few clinical applications in which self-reported race or ethnic group is used to define a normal range for a test outcome. Normative equations of lung function have been developed by testing large populations categorized on the basis of self-reported race or ethnic group. 4 However, many populations are racially admixed, and self-identified racial and ethnic categories are crude descriptors of individual genetic ancestry. . . .

Abstract Rationale Previous studies of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have suggested that genetic factors play an important role in the development of disease. However, single-nucleotide polymorphisms that are associated with COPD in genome-wide association studies have been shown to account for only a small percentage of the genetic variance in phenotypes of COPD, such as spirometry and imaging variables. These phenotypes are highly predictive of disease, and family studies have shown that spirometric phenotypes are heritable. Objectives To assess the heritability and coheritability of four major COPD-related phenotypes (measurements of FEV1, FEV1/FVC, percent emphysema, and percent gas trapping), and COPD affection status in smokers of non-Hispanic white and African American descent using a population design. Methods Single-nucleotide polymorphisms from genome-wide association studies chips were used to calculate the relatedness of pairs of individuals and a mixed model was adopted to estimate genetic variance and covariance. Measurements and Main Results In the non-Hispanic whites, estimated heritabilities of FEV1 and FEV1/FVC were both about 37%, consistent with estimates in the literature from family-based studies. For chest computed tomography scan phenotypes, estimated heritabilities were both close to 25%. Heritability of COPD affection status was estimated as 37.7% in both populations. Conclusions This study suggests that a large portion of the genetic risk of COPD is yet to be discovered and gives rationale for additional genetic studies of COPD. The estimates of coheritability (genetic covariance) for pairs of the phenotypes suggest considerable overlap of causal genetic loci.

Background A previous case–control study of 100 individuals found that short telomere length was associated with a 28-fold increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Objectives To test the hypothesis that short telomere length is associated with reduced lung function and an increased risk of COPD. Methods Observational study of 46 396 individuals from the Danish general population. Measurements Leucocyte telomere length and spirometry were measured. COPD was defined using either fixed forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio <0.70 as suggested by the Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) or FEV1/FVC below the lower limit of normal (LLN). Results Telomere length decreased significantly with increasing age (p<10−300). FEV1, FVC and FEV1/FVC decreased with decreasing telomere length quartiles (p trend: 5×10−51, 5×10−35 and 6×10−137, respectively), but the associations attenuated after age and multivariable adjustment. The risk of COPD increased with decreasing telomere length quartile (p trend: p=7×10−92 for GOLD; p=8×10−44 for FEV1/FVC below LLN), but associations also attenuated after adjustment. Unadjusted and multivariable adjusted OR for shortest versus longest telomere length quartiles were 2.06 (95% CI 1.91 to 2.22) and 1.15 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.25) for GOLD and 1.73 (95% CI 1.60 to 1.88) and 1.19 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.30) for FEV1/FVC below LLN, respectively. Per 1000 base pairs decrease in telomere length, the multivariable adjusted OR was 1.07 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.10) for GOLD and 1.07 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.11) for FEV1/FVC below LLN. Conclusions Short telomere length is associated with decreased lung function and with increased risk of COPD, but the associations are markedly attenuated after adjustment. Our data support a modest correlation between telomere length and the lung function indices examined.

Abstract Rationale Genomic loci are associated with FEV1 or the ratio of FEV1 to FVC in population samples, but their association with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not yet been proven, nor have their combined effects on lung function and COPD been studied. Objectives To test association with COPD of variants at five loci (TNS1, GSTCD, HTR4, AGER, and THSD4) and to evaluate joint effects on lung function and COPD of these single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and variants at the previously reported locus near HHIP. Methods By sampling from 12 population-based studies (n = 31,422), we obtained genotype data on 3,284 COPD case subjects and 17,538 control subjects for sentinel SNPs in TNS1, GSTCD, HTR4, AGER, and THSD4. In 24,648 individuals (including 2,890 COPD case subjects and 13,862 control subjects), we additionally obtained genotypes for rs12504628 near HHIP. Each allele associated with lung function decline at these six SNPs contributed to a risk score. We studied the association of the risk score to lung function and COPD. Measurements and Main Results Association with COPD was significant for three loci (TNS1, GSTCD, and HTR4) and the previously reported HHIP locus, and suggestive and directionally consistent for AGER and TSHD4. Compared with the baseline group (7 risk alleles), carrying 10–12 risk alleles was associated with a reduction in FEV1 (β = –72.21 ml, P = 3.90 × 10−4) and FEV1/FVC (β = –1.53%, P = 6.35 × 10−6), and with COPD (odds ratio = 1.63, P = 1.46 × 10−5). Conclusions Variants in TNS1, GSTCD, and HTR4 are associated with COPD. Our highest risk score category was associated with a 1.6-fold higher COPD risk than the population average score.