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"Voter turnout"
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Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945
Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based on experience in their first few elections. Elections that do not stimulate high turnout among young adults leave a 'footprint' of low turnout in the age structure of the electorate as many individuals who were new at those elections fail to vote at subsequent elections. Elections that stimulate high turnout leave a high turnout footprint. So a country's turnout history provides a baseline for current turnout that is largely set, except for young adults. This baseline shifts as older generations leave the electorate and as changes in political and institutional circumstances affect the turnout of new generations. Among the changes that have affected turnout in recent years, the lowering of the voting age in most established democracies has been particularly important in creating a low turnout footprint that has grown with each election.
eBook
Examining voter turnout using multiscale geographically weighted regression: The case of Slovakia
Voter turnout is an essential aspect of elections and often reflects the attitude of a country’s population towards democracy and politics. Therefore, examining the distribution of voter turnout and determining the factors that influence whether or not people will vote is crucial. This study aims to find significant factors that underlie the different levels of electoral participation across regions in Slovakia during the 2020 parliamentary elections. In this interpretation, special attention is paid to the ability of the main theories of voter turnout to explain the behaviour of Slovak voters. The primary analytical tool is multiscale geographically weighted regression, which represents an advanced local regression modelling variant. The results indicate that the multiscale geographically weighted regression is superior to the global ordinary least square model in virtually all aspects. Voter turnout is generally higher in economically and socially prosperous localities and regions, which is in line with the societal modernisation theory. Additionally, factors connected to mobilisation theory and the concept of ‘left behind places’ also proved to be valuable. However, in other cases, such as with the share of retirees and potential habitual voting, the outcomes were not overly convincing, and further research is required.
Journal Article
Voter Turnout
This book develops and empirically tests a social theory of political participation. It overturns prior understandings of why some people (such as college-degree holders, churchgoers and citizens in national rather than local elections) vote more often than others. The book shows that the standard demographic variables are not proxies for variation in the individual costs and benefits of participation, but for systematic variation in the patterns of social ties between potential voters. Potential voters who move in larger social circles, particularly those including politicians and other mobilizing actors, have more access to the flurry of electoral activity prodding citizens to vote and increasing political discussion. Treating voting as a socially defined practice instead of as an individual choice over personal payoffs, a social theory of participation is derived from a mathematical model with behavioral foundations that is empirically calibrated and tested using multiple methods and data sources.
eBook
Determinants of voter turnout in Nsukka Council of Enugu State, South Eastern Nigeria
Voting is becoming of significance in Nigeria, as in many other countries in Africa. Although Nigerian electoral politics has attracted full attention from scholars, there is little research on the factors that determine voter turnout in the country at the local level, especially the South-East geopolitical zone (GPZ). This paper is a stepwise logistic regression analysis of the determinants of voting in Nsukka council in Enugu State, South-East GPZ of Nigeria. The results show that age (0.230), education (0.532), marital status (1.355), political trust (1.309) and partisanship (˗0.570) are significant predictors of voter turnout. The effect of age, education, marital status and political trust on voting is positive and statistically significant, but partisanship has a statistically significant negative relationship with voting (p<0.01). The paper highlights the importance of local level geographical differentials in the factors influencing voting in Nigeria.
Journal Article
The Role of IPSAS Application in Meeting Voters Yearnings
Research Question- How does the IPSAS application affect Accountability and government effectiveness in Nigeria? Motivation- Inadequate disclosure of public account information has made a mess of public resources management regarding accountability and government effectiveness, necessitating rational actions for minimising cover-up of unethical practices in government. This study employs Tawiah (2022); Schmidthuber et al. (2022) to tailor IPSAS and governance concepts. It creates unique constructs of voters' turnout rates to measure government effectiveness and buttress Accountability. Idea- This study examines governance status based on public support through the voters' election turnout. It anchors the research variables on the institutional and theoretical framework of IPSAS and public responses to government effectiveness Data- It analyses 1999 to 2020, a 22-year-time series data covering before and after the IPSAS application; obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators data bank and the National Assembly Federal Republic of Nigeria resources. Tools- It uses descriptive, ordinary least square regression, correlation statistical, and econometric analyses. Findings- During IPSAS application period, Accountability improves while government effectiveness declines. Whereas, during GAAP period, Government accountability progresses while Presidential and House of Representatives elections negatively influence the government's effectiveness. Hence, the Voters' turnout dwindled. Contributions- A unique methodology involving voters, political parties, officeholders, foreign direct investors and gross domestic products in studying government financial reporting standards. Combination of two regimes of GAAP and IPSAS to demonstrate deeper analyses of accounting standards and public performance evaluation. Evidences that the hidden economic problems associated with resource misallocation are aggravated during the IPSAS period.
Journal Article
Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models
Difference-in-differences (DID) is commonly used for causal inference in time-series cross-sectional data. It requires the assumption that the average outcomes of treated and control units would have followed parallel paths in the absence of treatment. In this paper, we propose a method that not only relaxes this often-violated assumption, but also unifies the synthetic control method (Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller 2010) with linear fixed effects models under a simple framework, of which DID is a special case. It imputes counterfactuals for each treated unit using control group information based on a linear interactive fixed effects model that incorporates unit-specific intercepts interacted with time-varying coefficients. This method has several advantages. First, it allows the treatment to be correlated with unobserved unit and time heterogeneities under reasonable modeling assumptions. Second, it generalizes the synthetic control method to the case of multiple treated units and variable treatment periods, and improves efficiency and interpretability. Third, with a built-in cross-validation procedure, it avoids specification searches and thus is easy to implement. An empirical example of Election Day Registration and voter turnout in the United States is provided.
Journal Article