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Climate models are important tools for investigating how the climate might change in the future, however recent observations have suggested that these models are unable to capture the overturning in subpolar North Atlantic correctly, casting doubt on their projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we compare the overturning and surface water mass transformation in a set of CMIP6 models with observational estimates. There is generally a good agreement, particularly in the recent conclusion from observations that the mean overturning in the east (particularly in the Iceland and Irminger seas) is stronger than that in the Labrador Sea. The overturning in the Labrador Sea is mostly found to be small, but has a strong relationship with salinity: fresh models have weak overturning and saline models have stronger mean overturning and stronger relationships of the Labrador Sea overturning variability with the AMOC further south.We also find that the overturning reconstructed from surface flux driven water mass transformation is a good indicator of the actual overturning, though mixing can modify variability and shift signals to different density classes.

In this paper we present the analytical derivation of a local water mass transformation (WMT) framework for an individual water column. We exactly formulate the mapping of the governing equations from geopotential coordinates to an arbitrary tracer space. Unique definitions for the local effective vertical diasurface fluxes are given. In tracer space we derive new relations between the local diatracer fluxes and the mixing per tracer class. The key relation between the effective vertical diatracer velocity and the mixing per tracer class directly formulates how the overturning circulation is linked to local tracer variance dissipation. Horizontal integration of the governing equations in tracer space and the relations between the diatracer quantities finally recovers the well-known integral WMT formulations.

For decades oceanographers have understood the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to be primarily driven by changes in the production of deep-water formation in the subpolar and subarctic North Atlantic. Indeed, current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of an AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century based on climate models are attributed to the inhibition of deep convection in the North Atlantic. However, observational evidence for this linkage has been elusive: there has been no clear demonstration of AMOC variability in response to changes in deep-water formation. The motivation for understanding this linkage is compelling, since the overturning circulation has been shown to sequester heat and anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Furthermore, AMOC variability is expected to impact this sequestration as well as have consequences for regional and global climates through its effect on the poleward transport of warm water. Motivated by the need for a mechanistic understanding of the AMOC, an international community has assembled an observing system, Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), to provide a continuous record of the transbasin fluxes of heat, mass, and freshwater, and to link that record to convective activity and water mass transformation at high latitudes. OSNAP, in conjunction with the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) at 26°N and other observational elements, will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC and an understanding of what drives its variability. The OSNAP observing system was fully deployed in the summer of 2014, and the first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.

Over 90% of the buildup of additional heat in the Earth system over recent decades is contained in the ocean. Since 2006, new observational programs have revealed heterogeneous patterns of ocean heat content change. It is unclear how much of this heterogeneity is due to heat being added to and mixed within the ocean leading to material changes in water mass properties or is due to changes in circulation that redistribute existing water masses. Here we present a novel diagnosis of the “material” and “redistributed” contributions to regional heat content change between 2006 and 2017 that is based on a new “minimum transformation method” informed by both water mass transformation and optimal transportation theory. We show that material warming has large spatial coherence. The material change tends to be smaller than the redistributed change at any geographical location; however, it sums globally to the net warming of the ocean, whereas the redistributed component sums, by design, to zero. Material warming is robust over the time period of this analysis, whereas the redistributed signal only emerges from the variability in a few regions. In the North Atlantic Ocean, water mass changes indicate substantial material warming while redistribution cools the subpolar region as a result of a slowdown in the meridional overturning circulation. Warming in the Southern Ocean is explained by material warming and by anomalous southward heat transport of 118 ± 50 TW through redistribution. Our results suggest that near-term projections of ocean heat content change and therefore sea level change will hinge on understanding and predicting changes in ocean redistribution.

A significant portion (∼2.1 Sv, 1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) of deep water penetrates into the Philippine Sea through the Yap‐Mariana Junction, the sole passage of the Philippine Sea below 4,000 m, and is then upwelled into shallower layers, closing regional overturning circulation. Yet, the structure and variability of this diapycnal upwelling remain poorly understood. Here, we report on a fine‐resolution hydrographic observation conducted at the most significant topographic feature in the Philippine Sea, the Kyushu‐Palau Ridge (KPR). Enhanced mixing up to O(10−2) m2 s−1 near the KPR is manifested, indicating the presence of substantial upwelling herein. Besides, the ridge‐related topography contributes more deep‐water mass transformation than abyssal basins in the Philippine Sea. This study highlights the significant role of rough bathymetry features in generating diapycnal upwelling in the North Pacific. Plain Language Summary In the North Pacific, a significant portion of deep water from the Antarctic enters the Philippine Sea below 4,000 m, where it is upwelled into shallower layers, closing regional overturning circulation. However, where the deep water gains buoyancy in the deep Philippine Sea required to upwell into shallower layers remains largely unknown, rendering our understanding of the western Pacific overturning circulation incomplete. To fill this gap, we conducted observations at two transects over the Kyushu‐Palau Ridge (KPR), the most significant topographic feature in the Philippine Sea. Based on this observational program, we reveal the mixing structure down to the bottom across the KPR and estimate the deep water transformation in the deep Philippine Sea. This study illuminates the role of ridge‐related topography in driving diapycnal upwelling in the deep ocean and improves our understanding of the deep circulation in the North Pacific Ocean. Key Points A three‐dimensional distribution of diapycnal mixing over the Kyushu‐Palau Ridge is presented The spatially variable of mixing across the Kyushu‐Palau Ridge results in varying vertical velocities The Kyushu‐Palau Ridge contributes more deep‐water mass transformation than abyssal basins in the Philippine Sea

Using observationally based hydrographic and eddy diffusivity datasets, a volume budget analysis is performed to identify the main mechanisms governing the spatial and seasonal variability of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) within the density range γ n = (27.25–27.7) kg m −3 in the Southern Ocean. The subduction rates and water mass transformation rates by mesoscale and small-scale turbulent mixing are estimated. First, Ekman pumping upwells the dense variety of AAIW into the mixed layer south of the Polar Front, which can be advected northward by Ekman transport into the subduction regions of lighter-variety AAIW and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). The subduction of light AAIW occurs mainly by lateral advection in the southeast Pacific and Drake Passage as well as eddy-induced flow between the Subantarctic and Polar Fronts. The circumpolar-integrated total subduction yields from −5 to 19 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) of AAIW volume loss. Second, the diapycnal transport from subducted SAMW into the AAIW layer is predominantly by mesoscale mixing (2–13 Sv) near the Subantarctic Front and vertical mixing in the South Pacific, while AAIW is further replenished by transformation from Upper Circumpolar Deep Water by vertical mixing (1–10 Sv). Last, 3–14 Sv of AAIW are exported out of the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that the distribution of AAIW is set by its formation due to subduction and mixing, and its circulation eastward along the ACC and northward into the subtropical gyres. The volume budget analysis reveals strong seasonal variability in the rate of subduction, vertical mixing, and volume transport driving volume change within the AAIW layer. The nonzero volume budget residual suggests that more observations are needed to better constrain the estimate of geostrophic flow and mesoscale and small-scale mixing diffusivities.

Water mass transformation in the Nordic Seas and the associated overflow of dense waters across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) acts to maintain the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Here, we use ocean and atmospheric reanalysis to assess the temporal variability in the Nordic Seas overturning circulation between 1950 and 2020 and its relation to surface buoyancy forcing. We find that variable surface-forced transformation of Atlantic waters in the eastern Nordic Seas can explain variations in overflow transport across the GSR. The production of dense water masses in the Greenland and Iceland Seas is of minor importance to overflow variability. The Nordic Seas overturning circulation shows pronounced multidecadal variability that is in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) index, but no long-term trend. As the AMV is currently transitioning into its negative phase, the next decades could see a decreased overflow from the Nordic Seas.

Hydrographic measurements from ships, autonomous profiling floats, and instrumented seals over the period 1986–2016 are used to examine the temporal variability in open-ocean convection in the Greenland Sea during winter. This process replenishes the deep ocean with oxygen and is central to maintaining its thermohaline properties. The deepest and densest mixed layers in the Greenland Sea were located within its cyclonic gyre and exhibited large interannual variability. Beginning in winter 1994, a transition to deeper (>500 m) mixed layers took place. This resulted in the formation of a new, less dense class of intermediate water that has since become the main product of convection in the Greenland Sea. In the preceding winters, convection was limited to <300-m depth, despite strong atmospheric forcing. Sensitivity studies, performed with a one-dimensional mixed layer model, suggest that the deeper convection was primarily the result of reduced water-column stability. While anomalously fresh conditions that increased the stability of the upper part of the water column had previously inhibited convection, the transition to deeper mixed layers was associated with increased near-surface salinities. Our analysis further suggests that the volume of the new class of intermediate water has expanded in line with generally increased depths of convection over the past 10–15 years. The mean export of this water mass from the Greenland Sea gyre from 1994 to present was estimated to be 0.9 ± 0.7 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10^6 m^3 s^−1), although rates in excess of 1.5 Sv occurred in summers following winters with deep convection.

We diagnose the ocean’s residual overturning circulation of the Arabian Gulf in a high-resolution model and interpret it in terms of water-mass transformation processes mediated by air–sea buoyancy fluxes and interior mixing. We attempt to rationalize the complex three-dimensional flow in terms of the superposition of a zonal (roughly along axis) and meridional (transverse) overturning pattern. Rates of overturning and the seasonal cycle of air–sea fluxes sustaining them are quantified and ranked in order of importance. Air–sea fluxes dominate the budget so that, at zero order, the magnitude and sense of the overturning circulation can be inferred from air–sea fluxes, with interior mixing playing a lesser role. We find that wintertime latent heat fluxes dominate the water-mass transformation rate in the interior waters of the Gulf leading to a diapycnal volume flux directed toward higher densities. In the zonal overturning cell, fluid is drawn in from the Sea of Oman through the Strait of Hormuz, transformed, and exits the Strait near the southern and bottom boundaries. Along the southern margin of the Gulf, evaporation plays an important role in the meridional overturning pattern inducing sinking there.

We investigate how the ocean responds to 10-yr persistent surface heat flux forcing over the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) associated with the observed winter NAO in three CMIP6-class coupled models. The experiments reveal a broadly consistent ocean response to the imposed NAO forcing. Positive NAO forcing produces anomalously dense water masses in the SPNA, increasing the southward lower (denser) limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in density coordinates. The southward propagation of the anomalous dense water generates a zonal pressure gradient overlying the models’ North Atlantic Current that enhances the upper (lighter) limb of the density-space AMOC, increasing the heat and salt transport into the SPNA. However, the amplitude of the thermohaline process response differs substantially between the models. Intriguingly, the anomalous dense-water formation is not primarily driven directly by the imposed flux anomalies, but rather dominated by changes in isopycnal outcropping area and associated changes in surface water mass transformation (WMT) due to the background surface heat fluxes. The forcing initially alters the outcropping area in dense-water formation regions, but WMT due to the background surface heat fluxes through anomalous outcropping area decisively controls the total dense-water formation response and can explain the intermodel amplitude difference. Our study suggests that coupled models can simulate consistent mechanisms and spatial patterns of decadal SPNA variability when forced with the same anomalous buoyancy fluxes, but the amplitude of the response depends on the background states of the models.