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Ahyperbolic discounting model of labour supply and welfare participation with heterogeneous time preference parameters is estimated. Exclusion restrictions are constructed from variations in behaviour induced by time limits in a welfare reform experiment. We find that most individuals are time-inconsistent, and they exhibit varying degrees of present bias and perception of the commitment problem. Introducing a welfare component to the tax system can make individuals worse off by aggravating the commitment problem. Certain dynamic policy interventions carry sizeable commitment-related work incentives; for instance, a dynamic sanction triggered by past employment can be preferred by some individuals as a commitment device.

This paper studies whether media cues can motivate interest in reporting suspected unauthorized immigrants to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Using web search data and automated content analysis of cable news transcripts, we examine the role of media coverage on searches for how to report immigrants to ICE and searches about immigrant crime and welfare dependency. We find significant and persistent increases in news segments on crime by after Trump's inauguration, accompanied by a sharp increase in searches for how to report immigrants. We find a strong association between daily reporting searches and immigration and crime coverage. Using searches during broadcasts of presidential speeches, we isolate the specific effect of anti-immigrant media coverage on searches for how to report immigrants to ICE. The findings indicate that the media's choices regarding the coverage of immigrants can have a strong impact on the public's interest in behaviour that directly harms immigrants.

Background In this study we investigated the health-related rehabilitation trajectories of young Norwegian adults between 2004–2019. The study period is interesting because it overlaps with an extensive welfare system reform that occurred in Norway between 2006–2011. In parallel with the reform there was a substantial increase in health-related welfare dependency among young people due to mental health conditions. To better understand this group, we addressed three questions: 1) what were the most typical health-related rehabilitation trajectories for young Norwegians aged 23–27 between 2004–2019, 2) did the trajectories and composition of health-related benefit recipients change overtime and 3) in parallel with the welfare reform, do we see improved labour market outcomes in our study population? Methods Using high-quality Norwegian registry data, we established four cohorts of Norwegian health-related rehabilitation benefit recipients aged 23–27 in either 2004 (cohort 1), 2008 (cohort 2), 2011 (cohort 3) or 2014 (cohort 4). The follow-up period for each cohort was six years. We used sequence and cluster analyses to identify typical health-related rehabilitation trajectories. In addition, descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were used to scrutinise the relationship between trajectory types, sociodemographic characteristics and cohort membership. Results The majority follow trajectories consisting of welfare dependency, unemployment and unstable, low-income work. Both the trajectories and composition of the study population changed across cohorts. Over the observation period there was a 1) three-fold increase in the proportion following a trajectory ending in permanent disability benefits, 2) nine-fold increase in the proportion following trajectories characterised by long periods of health-related rehabilitation, 3) five-fold decrease in the share following unemployment occupational handicap trajectories 4) 6.9% increase in the proportion of early school leavers and 5) 8.9% decrease in the share with disabled parents. Conclusion Our study population is a vulnerable group with suboptimal mental health, functioning and employment outcomes. In conjunction with the welfare reform, we witnessed a significant drop in use of work-related benefits, accompanied by a substantial increase in uptake of health-related rehabilitation- and disability benefits. Thus, it appears that rather than improving employment outcomes, welfare policy changes have created a new problem by steering a greater proportion into disability benefits.

Reducing social assistance dependency is high on the political agenda; labour market and social exclusion of youth, in particular, has been considered worrisome. With these policy objectives and societal considerations in mind we set to study the association between health problems, with a specific focus on mental health, and the duration of social assistance receipt among young adults in Finland. Our analyses are based on rich register data encompassing the total population in the metropolitan area of Finland from 2005 to 2016. We follow a cohort of new social assistance recipients (n=36,728) aged 18–34 for a maximum of 60 months using Cox proportional hazard model. The results show a strong association between mental health problems and duration of social assistance receipt. The association was the strongest among those aged 18–24. Some differences in the strength of the association were found for different psychiatric diagnoses. On the other hand, somatic diagnoses were only weakly associated with duration of social assistance receipt. Mental health problems appear to be an important obstacle for exiting social assistance and this should be taken into account when governments aim to decrease welfare dependency and reform the last-resort financial aid.

Can corrective information change citizens’ misperceptions about immigrants and subsequently lead to favorable immigration opinions? While prior studies from the USA document how corrections about the size of minority populations fail to change citizens’ immigration-related opinions, they do not examine how other facts that speak to immigrants’ cultural or economic dependency rates can influence immigration policy opinions. To extend earlier work, we conducted a large-scale survey experiment fielded to a nationally representative sample of Danes. We randomly expose participants to information about non-Western immigrants’ (1) welfare dependency rate, (2) crime rate, and (3) proportion of the total population. We find that participants update their factual beliefs in light of correct information, but reinterpret the information in a highly selective fashion, ultimately failing to change their policy preferences.

\"Many developed countries are currently considering a move toward subsidized, widely accessible child care or preschool. However, studies on how large-scale provision of child care affects child development are scarce, and focused on short-run outcomes. We analyze a large-scale expansion of subsidized child care in Norway, addressing the impact on children's long-run outcomes. Our precise and robust difference-in-differences estimates show that subsidized child care had strong positive effects on children's educational attainment and labor market participation, and also reduced welfare dependency. Subsample analyses indicate that girls and children with low-educated mothers benefit the most from child care.\" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: Evaluation; anwendungsorientiert; empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Längsschnitt. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1967 bis 2006.

Contemporary welfare policies in many Western countries limit public assistance for the long-term unemployed and spur rapid movement into the labour market. These policies have substantially changed the trade-offs of employment and welfare-use behaviour, making employment far more attractive than welfare dependency. Despite this new reality, many welfare recipients circulate in and out of the welfare system and the low-wage labour market or become disconnected from both work and welfare. Drawing on longitudinal administrative data of single Israeli mothers who received Income Support Benefit in 2003, this study focuses on the role of structural factors, including local labour market conditions and local availability of subsidised child-care, in explaining the intensity of welfare receipt over a 51-month period. The results indicate notable diversity in welfare-use accumulation. Some mothers were classified as short- to mid-termer recipients while others showed a much more intensive use, and about a third were classified as chronically dependent. Local labour market conditions and their change over time played an important part in explaining welfare accumulation, while local child-care availability had no effect. Implications for policy are discussed.

Health and social scientists have documented the hospital revolving-door problem, the concentration of crime, and long-term welfare dependence. Have these distinct fields identified the same citizens? Using administrative databases linked to 1.7 million New Zealanders, we quantified and monetized inequality in distributions of health and social problems and tested whether they aggregate within individuals. Marked inequality was observed: Gini coefficients equalled 0.96 for criminal convictions, 0.91 for public-hospital nights, 0.86 for welfare benefits, 0.74 for prescription-drug fills and 0.54 for injury-insurance claims. Marked aggregation was uncovered: a small population segment accounted for a disproportionate share of use-events and costs across multiple sectors. These findings were replicated in 2.3 million Danes. We then integrated the New Zealand databases with the four-decade-long Dunedin Study. The high-need/high-cost population segment experienced early-life factors that reduce workforce readiness, including low education and poor mental health. In midlife they reported low life satisfaction. Investing in young people’s education and training potential could reduce health and social inequalities and enhance population wellbeing. Using administrative data on 4 million citizens from two nations, Richmond-Rakerd et al. find that multiple health and social problems cluster in a population segment with low workforce readiness, including low education and poor early-life mental health.

It is unclear how the recurrence of major depression in adolescence affects later life outcomes. To examine the associations between the frequency of major depression at ages 16-21 and later outcomes, both before and after controlling for potentially confounding factors. Data were gathered from a 25-year longitudinal study of a birth cohort of New Zealand children (n=982). Outcome measures included DSM-IV symptom criteria for major depression and anxiety disorders, suicidal ideation and attempted suicide, achieving university degree or other tertiary education qualification, welfare dependence and unemployment, and income at ages 21-25 years. There were significant (P<0.05) associations between the frequency of depression at ages 16-21 years and all outcome measures. After adjustment for confounding factors, the association between frequency of depression and all mental health outcomes, and welfare dependence and unemployment, remained significant (P<0.05). The frequency of depression in adolescence and young adulthood is associated with adverse mental health and economic outcomes in early adulthood.

Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, includ ing Kenya, have intro duced free/subsidized secondary education. This paper exam ines the role of these free/subsidized education policies on teenage motherhood. To identify the causal effect, I exploit the tim ing of a national reform in Kenya that eliminated/subsidized secondary school fees using a difference-in-difference estimation design. Using the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), I estimate that the likelihood of teenage mother hood decreased by approximately 5 percentage points after the policy’s implementation. This study reiterates that the teenage period is crucial in terms of developing human capital through formal schooling. In most developing countries, parents often determine and fund human capital, which makes household wealth/income a critical factor in human capital accumulation and its intergenerational process. I also highlight positive externalities from educational-centered policies, such as long-term economic growth, poverty reduction, and reduction of social welfare dependency.