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Weather forecasts and climate projections of precipitation phase and type in winter storms are challenging due to the complicated underlying microphysical and dynamical processes. In the Canadian numerical weather prediction model, explicit freezing rain (FR) at the surface is often overestimated during the winter season for situations in which snow is observed. For a case study simulated using this model with the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme, the secondary ice production (SIP) process has a major impact on the surface precipitation type. Parameterized SIP substantially reduces FR due to increased collection of supercooled drops with ice particles formed by rime splintering. Hindcast simulations of 40 winter cases show that these results are systematic, and the decreased frequency of FR leads to improved forecast skill relative to observations. Thus, accounting for SIP in the model is critical for accurately simulating precipitation types. Plain Language Summary Several types of winter precipitation, including snow, freezing rain (FR) and ice pellets (IP), are associated with hazards such as injuries from people falling, disruption of electrical supply, and breakdown of transportation networks due to the accumulation of ice on surfaces. Forecasts of precipitation type using weather prediction models, as well as projections for a warmer climate, are challenging because of the complicated physical processes involved. In this article, it is shown that the component of the numerical model that is used to represent clouds and precipitation in the Canadian high‐resolution weather forecast system overestimates FR at the expense of snow. This problem is mitigated when the additional process of secondary ice production (here, the generation of new ice particles from collisions of existing ice and supercooled drops) is included in the model. The presence of numerous small ice particles formed by this process decreases the amount of FR and improves forecast skill scores for 40 historic winter cases. Thus, accounting for this process in weather and climate models is important for accurately simulating FR, IP and snow. Key Points Secondary ice production (SIP) substantially impacts precipitation phase and type in winter storms Inclusion of SIP reduces excessive freezing rain (FR) in numerical simulations Forecast metrics for FR in 40 winter cases are improved when SIP is included in a weather model

As the dominant mode of low‐frequency atmospheric variability in extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) exerts strong impacts on East Asian climate, with the positive AO leading to increased South China winter precipitation (SCWP). Here, we find that such AO–SCWP relationship is nonstationary and controlled by the remote Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Especially, the relationship between positive AO and SCWP is significantly weakened during the warm phase of AMO. Observational analyses and idealized Atlantic pacemaker simulations indicate that warm AMO forcing is accompanied by a teleconnection wave train extending eastward from the North Atlantic to West Pacific and the western North Pacific sea surface temperature warming, which together induce northerly wind anomalies over South China by enhancing the land–ocean pressure gradient. Such climate background state changes associated with the warm AMO prohibit the positive AO induced water vapor transport to South China, thereby weakening the AO–SCWP relationship. Plain Language Summary The prominent interannual variability of South China winter precipitation (SCWP) often causes severe snow storms and frozen disasters. As the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is documented to exert strong impacts on SCWP. However, the AO–SCWP relationship exhibits nonstationary features with prominent interdecadal fluctuations. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may modulate the interannual AO–SCWP relationship. The warm AMO forcing is accompanied by northerly wind anomalies over South China, which prohibit the positive AO induced water vapor transport to South China, thereby weakening the AO–SCWP relationship. This study advances our understanding of winter precipitation variability in East Asia and provides new insights into the global climate impacts of AMO. Key Points The influence of AO on South China winter precipitation (SCWP) is found to be nonstationary and modulated by the remote AMO The warm AMO drives northerly wind anomalies over Eastern China through teleconnection wave train and western North Pacific SST warming The AMO related climate mean state changes influence the AO induced water vapor transport to South China, modulating AO–SCWP relationship

The boreal winter precipitation variability over East Asia and the western North Pacific is often attributed to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study investigates the independent impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on winter precipitation anomalies over East Asia and the western North Pacific. It is revealed that anomalous EAWM is accompanied by a south-north dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies in the above regions. During strong EAWM years, the enhanced northeasterly winds induce anomalous convergence and divergence over the tropical and subtropical regions, respectively, leading to anomalous ascent and above-normal precipitation over the southern South China Sea-Philippine Sea and anomalous descent and below-normal precipitation over eastern China-subtropical western North Pacific. Opposite convergence, vertical motion and precipitation anomalies are induced in the above regions during weak EAWM years. In the observations, both ENSO and EAWM contribute to the south-north dipole precipitation anomaly pattern with a larger contribution from ENSO and EAWM for the tropical and subtropical precipitation anomalies, respectively. Atmospheric model experiments with climatological annually varying sea surface temperature forcing confirm the independent role of the EAWM in the formation of the south-north dipole precipitation anomaly pattern. A moisture budget diagnosis shows that the dynamic effect associated with vertical motion is dominant in the formation of the above precipitation anomaly pattern in both the observations and model simulations. The horizontal moisture transport has an additional contribution to the formation of subtropical precipitation anomalies.

The winter precipitation over South China (SCWP) can exert great impacts on the local ecosystem and human livelihood. Previous studies suggested that the inter-annual variability of SCWP can be affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the Northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWPAC). The present study investigates the role of the India–Burma Trough (IBT) in mediating the teleconnection between ENSO and the SCWP. During the El Niño mature winter, the slowdown of Walker circulation is evident over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The low-level easterly wind anomaly is pronounced from the warm pool to the western TIO, which turns into the westerly wind anomaly over the northern TIO basin and then enhances IBT. Meanwhile, the Kelvin wave in the upper troposphere stimulated by El Niño propagates eastward toward Indian Ocean and induces the tropospheric warming over TIO. The resultant increase of the meridional temperature gradient leads to the southward shift of the westerly jet stream which favors the strengthening of IBT and the increase of SCWP. It is further shown that the IBT change is unclear in La Niña. This nonlinear feature can be largely attributed to the asymmetry in both ENSO amplitude and ENSO-related circulation anomalies. The present findings highlight the role of IBT, in addition to the well-known NWPAC, in bridging ENSO and SCWP.

This study documents an interdecadal change in the interannual relationship between Northeast China’s winter precipitation (NECWP) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans in the 1990s. It is revealed that the NECWP shows a significant simultaneous correlation with the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic (SST_Atlantic)/tropical Indian Ocean (SST_Indian) during 1996–2013/1961–1990. Generally, the NECWP anomaly is concurrent with apparent Eurasian wave pattern during 1961–1990 whereas anomalous Okhotsk high and East Asia trough during 1996–2013. It is found that, before the 1990s, the warming SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean could stimulate the Eurasian wave pattern via inducing significant anomalous upper-level convergence over the northern Europe, which tends to favor a positive NECWP anomaly. During 1996–2013, the SST_Indian-NECWP connection is disrupted. Instead, the North Atlantic tri-polar SST anomaly pattern exerts a dominant impact on the NECWP through triggering a stationary Rossby wave that originates from the North Atlantic and propagates eastward to Northeast Asia and further modulates the Okhotsk high and East Asia trough. Further analyses indicate that the weakened connection between the tropical SST_Indian anomalies and the northern Ferrell circulation likely contributes to the weakening of the NECWP–SST_Indian relationship after the 1990s. However, the eastward shift and the enlarged anomalous magnitudes of the North Atlantic Oscillation might favor the strengthening of the NECWP–SST_Atlantic relationship after the mid-1990s. It is therefore suggested that the strengthened variability of the SST_Atlantic anomalies after the 1990s might partially contribute to the intensification of the interannual variability of the NECWP.

Snow is an essential meteorological variable and an indicator of the changing climate. Its variations, particularly in snow depth and snow water equivalent, result mainly from changes in winter precipitation and air temperature. Recently, these conditions have been thoroughly investigated worldwide, revealing a general prevailing decline in precipitation and increasing tendencies in air temperatures. However, no systematic or up-to-date studies for Bulgaria exist. The main goal of the current project is to fill this national knowledge gap in the snow conditions in our mountains. For that purpose, we used 31 stations with altitudes ranging from 527 to 2925 m a.s.l. for the period between 1961 and 2020, covering two significant reference climatic periods. We extracted data about snow cover maximums, mean air temperatures, and precipitation amounts for the whole winter season in mountainous regions from October to April; however, we mainly present the results for the three winter months: December, January, and February. Most of the stations do not demonstrate any significant trends for snow depth maximums, except for the three lower stations in central west Bulgaria, which show significant increases. On the opposite end of the scale, two of the highest stations demonstrated notable decreases. The time series for the precipitation amounts are also predominantly indefinite. Significant decreasing trends can be found at the highest three alpine stations. The change in the mean seasonal air temperature is predominantly positive—17 of the stations show positive trends, and for 12, the increases are significant. The altitude of the strongest seasonal temperature rise lies between 1000 and 1700 m. Finally, due to the obvious nonlinearity of some of the time series, we decided to check for change points and a nonlinear approach to fit the data. This analysis demonstrates general changes in the investigated characteristics from the beginning of the 1970s to the middle of the 1980s.

Climate-change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has been addressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model developed from the reanalysis of SLP and gridded precipitation GPCC data, has been applied to SLP outputs from 20 CGMS of CMIP5, both from the present climate (1971–2000) and for the future (2071–2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SD model shows a suitable performance over large regions, presenting a strong bias only in small areas characterized by very dry climate conditions or poor data coverage. The difference in percentage between the projected SD precipitation and the simulated SD precipitation for present climate, ranges from moderate to intense changes in rainfall (positive or negative, depending on the region and the SD GCM model considered), as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. The disparity in the GCMs outputs seems to be the major source of uncertainty in the projected changes, while the scenario considered appears less decisive. Mexico and eastern Brazil are the areas showing the most coherent decreases between SD GCMs, while northwestern and southeastern South America show consistently significant increases. This coherence is corroborated by the results of the ensemble mean which projects positive changes from 10°N towards the south, with exceptions such as eastern Brazil, northern Chile and some smaller areas, such as the center of Colombia, while projected negative changes are the majority found in the northernmost part.

We established a tree-ring width series from one Yunnan Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga forrestii) stand near the Mingyong glacier terminus of Meili Snow Mountain, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Correlation analyses indicated that radial growth of Yunnan Douglas firs is largely controlled by variations in winter (November–March) precipitation. The precipitation reconstruction model accounts for 37% of the actual precipitation variance during the common period 1954–2012. Spatial correlations with the gridded precipitation data reveal that the winter precipitation reconstruction represents regional precipitation changes over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. By comparing our results with other regional tree-ring records, a distinctive amount of common dry and humid periods were found. Our winter precipitation reconstruction shows profound similarities with Salween river streamflow signals as well as regional glacial activity. Cross-wavelet analysis reveals solar and ENSO influences on precipitation and streamflow variations in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Higher precipitation is expected over most of the world’s continents under climate change, except for a few specific regions where models project robust declines. Among these, the Mediterranean stands out as a result of the magnitude and significance of its winter precipitation decline. Locally, up to 40% of winter precipitation could be lost, setting strong limits on water resources that will constrain the ability of the region to develop and grow food, affecting millions of already water-stressed people and threatening the stability of this tense and complex area. To this day, however, a theory explaining the special nature of this region as a climate change hot spot is still lacking. Regional circulation changes, dominated by the development of a strong anomalous ridge, are thought to drive the winter precipitation decline, but their origins and potential contributions to regional hydroclimate change remain elusive. Here, we show how wintertime Mediterranean circulation trends can be seen as the combined response to two independent forcings: robust changes in large-scale, upper-tropospheric flow and the reduction in the regional land–sea temperature gradient that is characteristic of this region. In addition, we discuss how the circulation change can account for the magnitude and spatial structure of the drying. Our findings pave the way for better understanding and improved modeling of the future Mediterranean hydroclimate.

Mediterranean-type climates are defined by temperate, wet winters, and hot or warm dry summers and exist at the western edges of five continents in locations determined by the geography of winter storm tracks and summer subtropical anticyclones. The climatology, variability, and long-term changes in winter precipitation in Mediterranean-type climates, and the mechanisms for model-projected near-term future change, are analyzed. Despite commonalities in terms of location in the context of planetary-scale dynamics, the causes of variability are distinct across the regions. Internal atmospheric variability is the dominant source of winter precipitation variability in all Mediterranean-type climate regions, but only in the Mediterranean is this clearly related to annular mode variability. Ocean forcing of variability is a notable influence only for California and Chile. As a consequence, potential predictability of winter precipitation variability in the regions is low. In all regions, the trend in winter precipitation since 1901 is similar to that which arises as a response to changes in external forcing in the models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. All Mediterranean-type climate regions, except in North America, have dried and the models project further drying over coming decades. In the Northern Hemisphere, dynamical processes are responsible: development of a winter ridge over the Mediterranean that suppresses precipitation and of a trough west of the North American west coast that shifts the Pacific storm track equatorward. In the Southern Hemisphere, mixed dynamic–thermodynamic changes are important that place a minimum in vertically integrated water vapor change at the coast and enhance zonal dry advection into Mediterranean-type climate regions inland.