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"Wohlstand"
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Not working : where have all the good jobs gone?
Don't trust low unemployment numbers as proof that the labor market is doing fine - it isn't. Not Working is about those who can't find full-time work at a decent wage - the underemployed - and how their plight is contributing to widespread despair, a worsening drug epidemic, and the unchecked rise of right-wing populism. In this revelatory and outspoken book, David Blanchflower draws on his acclaimed work in the economics of labor and well-being to explain why today's postrecession economy is vastly different from what came before. He calls out our leaders and policymakers for failing to see the Great Recession coming, and for their continued failure to address one of the most unacknowledged social catastrophes of our time. Blanchflower shows how many workers are underemployed or have simply given up trying to find a well-paying job, how wage growth has not returned to prerecession levels despite rosy employment indicators, and how general prosperity has not returned since the crash of 2008. Standard economic measures are often blind to these forgotten workers, which is why Blanchflower practices the \"economics of walking about \" -seeing for himself how ordinary people are faring under the recovery, and taking seriously what they say and do. Not Working is his candid report on how the young and the less skilled are among the worst casualties of underemployment, how immigrants are taking the blame, and how the epidemic of unhappiness and self-destruction will continue to spread unless we deal with it.
Book
THE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF OIL WEALTH ON DEVELOPMENT
We estimate the long-run effects of oil wealth on development by exploiting spatial variation in sedimentary basins—areas where petroleum can potentially form. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that oil production impedes democracy and fiscal capacity development, increases corruption, and raises GDP per capita without significantly harming the non-resource sectors of the economy. We find no evidence that oil production increases internal armed conflict, coup attempts, or political purges. In several specifications failure to account for endogeneity leads to substantial underestimation of the adverse effects of oil, suggesting that countries with higher-quality political institutions and greater fiscal capacity disproportionately select into oil production.
Journal Article
Et Tu, Brute? Wealth Inequality and the Political Economy of Authoritarian Replacement
What motivates elite factions to seek to replace an authoritarian incumbent? In this article, I provide a political economy theory of authoritarian replacement. I argue that high wealth inequality fosters authoritarian replacement, but that the effect is conditional on overall wealth being low. At low wealth, elite factions have an incentive to control the state to appropriate income. As wealth grows, elites shift their focus toward securing their wealth and thus prioritize finding credible commitments and stability within authoritarianism. I test these hypotheses using data from 1960 to 2008 and employ multistate survival analysis. A case study of Trujillo’s rise in the Dominican Republic illustrates the mechanisms of the theory. The evidence supports the main theoretical expectation that replacement is more likely when the level of wealth is low but wealth inequality is high.
Journal Article
On the heterogeneous trade and welfare effects of GATT/WTO membership
We quantify the effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries over the period 1980–2016, we find that the average partial equilibrium impact of GATT/WTO membership on trade among member countries is large, positive, and significant. We contribute to the literature by estimating country-specific estimates and find them to vary widely across the countries in our sample with poorer members benefitting more. Using these estimates, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members. We show that countries not experiencing positive trade effects from joining GATT/WTO can still gain in terms of welfare, due to lower import prices and higher export demand.
Journal Article
Autarkie und Selbstbestimmung
Die tschechische Energiepolitik steht vor großen Herausforderungen. Heimische Braunkohle spielt nach wie vor eine große Rolle bei der Energieversorgung. Bei der Suche nach Alternativen bis zum endgültigen Kohleausstieg im Jahr 2038 setzt Tschechien vor allem auf die Kernkraft. Dies spiegelt einen breiten gesellschaftlichen Konsens. Hinter diesem steht eine Abwägung der Prinzipien Versorgungssicherheit, Wirtschaftlichkeit und ökologische Nachhaltigkeit. Erneuerbare Energien haben im Binnenland Tschechien nur ein begrenztes Potential und sind wegen eines teuren Fördermodells in Misskredit geraten. Importiertes Erdgas wird als Brückentechnologie an Bedeutung gewinnen, sein Einsatz soll aber aus sicherheitspolitischen Gründen nicht übermäßig wachsen.
Czech energy policy faces major challenges. Domestic lignite still plays a major role in the country’s energy supply. In the search for alternatives before the final phaseout of coal in 2038, the Czech Republic is betting above all on nuclear energy. This reflects a broad social consensus. Behind this lies careful deliberations on such principles as security of supply, economic efficiency, and ecological sustainability. Renewable sources of energy have only limited potential in the Czech interior, and these have fallen into disrepute due to an expensive model of subsidies. Imported natural gas will gain in importance as a bridging technology, but its use should not grow unduly for reasons of security policy.
Journal Article
Place and Prosperity
There are few more powerful questions than, \"Where are you from\" or \"Where do you live?\" People feel intensely connected to cities as places and to other people who feel that same connection.In order to understand place - and understand human settlements generally - it is important to understand that places are not created by accident.
eBook
Economic support ratios and the demographic dividend in Europe
Support ratios and dependency ratios are widely used as indicators for measuring the effects of population ageing on economic development. Both of these indicators use fixed age limits to distinguish between the working and the dependent populations. We apply age-specific profiles of consumption and labour income instead of using arbitrary age limits. Based on these age-specific characteristics, the authors have study the impact of changes in the age structure on the economy. In addition to looking at the compositional effect of age structure changes, they also consider savings/wealth effects. The National Transfer Accounts (NTA) offer researchers a new method for comprehensively analysing economic flows across age groups. The development of the \"NTA support ratio\" for 2010-2050 indicates that the compositional effect of the changing population structure on economic development will range from -11% for the UK to -25% for Slovenia, which exceed the values of the conventional support ratio. The positive saving/wealth effect is almost negligible for the countries studied, except for the UK, Germany, and Spain.
Journal Article
Wealth and Welfare: Do Private and Public Safety Nets Compensate for Asset Poverty?
Economic shocks test the resilience of families around the world. Lockdowns, extended periods of unemployment, and inflation challenge the capabilities of private households to maintain their living standards whilst keeping their budgets in balance. Asset poverty is a concept invoked frequently to measure the capacity of private households to mitigate income loss by relying exclusively on their savings. In contrast to conventional asset poverty measures, we quantify the combined cushioning effect of private and public safety nets. Highlighting the importance of public safety nets and familial networks, this article devises a modified concept of asset poverty: Rather than purely simulating a household’s asset decumulation without replacement income, the modified indicator accounts for replacement income in a static setting. The empirical assessment of modified asset poverty in Europe and America combines harmonised microdata on household finances with simulations of institutional rules set by social insurance systems. Our results reveal how differences in social relations and institutional rules shape cross‐country variation in the vulnerability of private households. We find that, in contrast to the US, where the asset poverty of families is particularly low, households in most European countries are less vulnerable because generous social security systems coexist with low private assets. However, in some European countries, benefit generosity decreases the longer income losses last, exposing time dynamics in vulnerability. Complementing social insurance mechanisms, in countries such as Greece, households are more likely to receive financial support from family or friends. Cross‐national heterogeneity in vulnerability suggests that a shock may have different implications across countries.
Journal Article
Divested : inequality in the age of finance
Divested documents how the ascendance of finance is a fundamental cause of economic inequality in the United States. This wide-ranging and comprehensive account demonstrates the many ways financial sector has reshaped the economy, leaving the average American adrift in a world driven by the maximization of financial profit.
eBook