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This study examines constituent year effect (CYE) and race performance among junior alpine skiers in the World Championships. In various junior age cohorts competing together, variation in skiing performance can be expected not only due to practice load and experience but also due to inter-individual differences in physical and psychological maturation. Within a one-year cohort, this effect has been referred to as the birth month effect or the relative age effect (RAE). In cohorts with multiple age bands, the effect is termed the constituent year effect (CYE). The CYE works in principle as the RAE but can function as a magnifying lens of the development within a larger multi-year cohort. The results of the current study indicate that CYEs are present among junior alpine skier performance in the junior World Championships. The magnitude of the constituent year effect is greater in speed events (i.e., downhill and super-G) than in technical events (i.e., slalom and giant slalom), and greater among male skiers compared to female skiers. The findings are discussed in relation to previous research on relative age effects more generally and within the sport context specifically.

1. The outcomes of restoration efforts are contingent on the specifics of the restoration practices utilized, but also on uncontrolled contingencies such as site effects and year effects. Although restoration practitioners have long been aware that the successes of their projects vary from site to site and from year to year, there have been few direct experimental tests of these contingencies. 2. We established grassland restoration plots identically across three sites in northern California, in each of four establishment years (for 12 site-year combinations). 3. The resulting plant communities differed significantly across sites and across establishment years. As a consequence of these community differences, there were 'forb years' and 'grass years', although these sometimes differed among sites. Multivariate analysis identified mean annual temperature and total precipitation as likely drivers of some of these differences. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results not only confirm the idiosyncratic nature of the results of restoration efforts (and ecological experiments in general) but also demonstrate that some of this variation can potentially be related to measurable environmental conditions. Understanding the drivers of this variability can ultimately aid restoration practitioners by allowing them to focus restoration efforts on years and sites most likely to yield desired outcomes.

Environmental conditions that vary from year to year can be strong drivers of ecological dynamics, including the composition of newly assembled communities. However, ecologists often chalk such dynamics up to “noise” in ecological experiments. Our lack of attention to such “year effects” hampers our understanding of contingencies in ecological assembly mechanisms and limits the generalizability of research findings. Here, we provide examples from published research demonstrating the importance of year effects during community assembly across study systems. We further quantify these year effects with two case studies—a grassland restoration experiment and a study of postfire conifer recruitment—finding that the effects of initiation year on community composition can dictate community as much, if not more, than the effects of experimental treatments or site. The evidence strongly suggests that year effects are pervasive and profound, and that year effects early in community assembly can drive strong and enduring divergence in community structure and function. Explicit attention to year effects in ecological research serves to illuminate basic ecological principles, allowing for better understanding of contingencies in ecology. These dynamics also have strong implications for applied ecological research, offering new insights into ecological restoration as well as future climate change.

The toxins produced by Aspergillus flavus can significantly inhibit the use of maize. As a result of climate change, toxin production is a problem not only in tropical and subtropical areas but in an increasing number of European countries, including Hungary. The effect of meteorological factors and irrigation on mould colonization and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) mycotoxin production by A. flavus were investigated in natural conditions, as well as the inoculation with a toxigenic isolate in a complex field experiment for three years. As a result of irrigation, the occurrence of fungi increased, and toxin production decreased. The mould count of fungi and toxin accumulation showed differences during the examined growing seasons. The highest AFB1 content was found in 2021. The main environmental factors in predicting mould count were temperature (Tavg, Tmax ≥ 30 °C, Tmax ≥ 32 °C, Tmax ≥ 35 °C) and atmospheric drought (RHmin ≤ 40%). Toxin production was determined by extremely high daily maximum temperatures (Tmax ≥ 35 °C). At natural contamination, the effect of Tmax ≥ 35 °C on AFB1 was maximal (r = 0.560–0.569) in the R4 stage. In the case of artificial inoculation, correlations with environmental factors were stronger (r = 0.665–0.834) during the R2–R6 stages.

Summary The outcomes of ecological restoration are notoriously unpredictable, but we have no general predictive understanding of this contingency. Management decisions can have strong effects on restoration outcomes, but in other cases may be overwhelmed by site characteristics (e.g. soil conditions), landscape context (e.g. abundance of similar habitat) or historical factors (e.g. priority effects). However, we generally cannot predict which of these four classes of drivers will affect restoration outcomes. Disparate aspects of restoration outcomes (e.g. species richness, beta diversity and community composition) and their unique responses further complicate our understanding. Finally, these four classes of drivers might differentially affect subsets of the restored community, where, for example, management might shape the abundance and distribution of species of the target community, while other species are more contingent on site, landscape or historical factors. Here, we used variation partitioning to compare the relative importance of management, site, landscape and historical factors for determining the plant community outcomes of 27 prairie restorations in south‐west Michigan. We found that management, especially the composition, diversity and density of seed mixes applied, and history, especially site age, were the most important drivers of prairie restoration species richness, beta diversity and composition. Site and landscape factors were only rarely important for restoration outcomes. Finally, we found that comparing the unique responses of sown and non‐sown species typically increased our understanding of the dynamics contributing to community‐wide restoration outcomes. Synthesis and applications. This is, to our knowledge, the first quantitative comparison of how four major classes of drivers determine the outcome of restoration. Historical legacies and management decisions, but generally not landscape context or local site conditions, shaped plant communities at restored sites. These findings represent an important step towards developing a more predictive framework for understanding contingency in restoration outcomes. This is, to our knowledge, the first quantitative comparison of how four major classes of drivers determine the outcome of restoration. Historical legacies and management decisions, but generally not landscape context or local site conditions, shaped plant communities at restored sites. These findings represent an important step towards developing a more predictive framework for understanding contingency in restoration outcomes. Editor's Choice

A central issue in claims reserving is the modelling of appropriate dependence structures. Most classical models cannot cope with this task. We define a multivariate log-normal model that allows to model both, dependence between different sub-portfolios and dependence within sub-portfolios such as claims inflation. In this model we derive closed form solutions for claims reserves and the corresponding prediction uncertainty.

Plant community assembly outcomes can be contingent upon establishment year (year effects) due to variations in the environment. Stochastic events such as interannual variability in climate, particularly in the first year of community assembly, contribute to unpredictable community outcomes over the short term, but less is known about whether year effects produce transient or persistent states on a decadal timescale. To test for short-term (5-year) and persistent (decadal) effects of establishment year climate on community assembly outcomes, we restored prairie in an agricultural field using the same methods in four different years (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) that captured a wide range of initial (planting) year climate conditions. Species composition was measured for 5 years in all four restored prairies and for 9 and 11 years in the two oldest restored prairies established under average precipitation and extreme drought conditions. The composition of the four assembled communities showed large and significant differences in the first year of restoration, followed by dynamic change over time along a similar trajectory due to a temporary flush of annual volunteer species. Sown perennial species eventually came to dominate all communities, but communities remained distinct from each other in year five. Precipitation in June and July of the establishment year explained short-term coarse community metrics (i.e., species richness and grass/forb cover), with wet establishment years resulting in a higher cover of grasses and dry establishment years resulting in a higher cover of forbs in restored communities. Short-term differences in community composition, species richness, and grass/forb cover in restorations established under average precipitation and drought conditions persisted for 9–11 years, with low interannual variability in the composition of each prairie over the long term, indicating persistently different states on a decadal timescale. Thus, year effects resulting from stochastic variation in climate can have decadal effects on community assembly outcomes.

Research summary: This study employs longitudinal multilevel modeling to re-examine the relative importance of business unit, corporation, industry, and year effects on business unit performance. Total variance in performance is partitioned into stable variance and dynamic variance. Sources of these two parts of variance are explored. Empirical results indicate that (1) stable effects of corporation-industry interaction are substantially important, but were unequally confounded with stable effects of business unit, corporation, and industry in results of previous studies; (2) stable effects of corporation, industry, and corporation-industry interaction, taken together, are of similar relative magnitude to stable effects of business unit; and (3) random and nonlinear year effects are very important in explaining dynamic variance. These findings extend our theoretical and empirical understanding of performance variability. Managerial summary: Whether stable or changing, business units themselves, corporate-parents, and industries influence business unit operations. This article investigates the relative effects of these factors on business unit performance. Although the traditional wisdom is that business unit is critical, this research finds that corporate-parent, industry, and interactions between these, taken together, are as influential as business unit. Specifically, interactions between corporate-parent and industry are important for over-time average business unit performance, indicating that a given corporate-parent unevenly influences its business units in different industries and that a particular industry unevenly influences business units within itself from different corporate-parents. This study also demonstrates that changes in business unit, corporate-parent, and industry are important drivers of over-time volatility of business unit performance and that effects of these changes differ.

Relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning depend on the processes structuring community assembly. However, predicting biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships based on community assembly remains challenging because assembly outcomes are often contingent on history and the consequences of history for ecosystem functions are poorly understood. In a grassland restoration experiment, we isolated the role of history for the relationships between plant biodiversity and multiple ecosystem functions by initiating assembly in three different years, while controlling for all other aspects of community assembly. We found that two aspects of assembly history—establishment year and succession—altered species and trait community trajectories, which in turn altered net primary productivity, decomposition rates, and floral resources. Moreover, history altered BEF relationships (which ranged from positive to negative), both within and across functions, by modifying the causal pathways linking species identity, traits, diversity, and ecosystem functions. Our results show that the interplay of deterministic succession and environmental stochasticity during establishment mediate historical contingencies that cause variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions, even under otherwise identical assembly conditions. An explicit attention to history is needed to understand why biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships vary in natural ecosystems: a critical question at the intersection of fundamental theory and applications to environmental change biology and ecosystem restoration.

The phenol content of vegetable oil and its antioxidant activity are of primary interest for human health. Oilseed species are considered important sources of these compounds with medicinal effects on a large scale. Total phenol content (TPC) and antioxidant activity (AA) of safflower oil were previously studied. Nevertheless, there is no report on genotypic differences and antiaging activity of safflower oil. The aim of this study was to determine the TPC, diphenyl-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), and antiaging activity on three respective accessions from Syria, France, and Algeria of seed oil of safflower grown under semi-arid conditions during 3 consecutive years (2015, 2016, and 2017). The results showed that phenol content as well as antioxidant and antiaging activity varied according to both genotype and years. In 2017, the mean value of TPC in oil seed was two times higher than in 2015 and 2016. Moreover, accessions presented different TPC values depending on the year. The highest antioxidant activity was observed among accessions in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016. As expected, a positive correlation was found between TPC and antioxidant activity. The inhibition in the collagenase assay was between 47% and 72.1% compared to the positive control (83.1%), while inhibition in the elastase assay of TPC ranged from 32.2% to 70.3%, with the positive control being 75.8%. These results highlight the interest of safflower oil as a source of phenols with valuable antioxidant and antiaging activity, and uses for cosmetics.