Explore the vast range of titles available.

With permafrost warming, the observed discharge of the Kolyma River in northeastern Siberia decreased between 1930s and 2000; however, the underlying mechanism is not well understood. To understand the hydrological changes in the Kolyma River, it is important to analyze the long-term hydrometeorological features, along with the changes in the active layer thickness. A coupled hydrological and biogeochemical model was used to analyze the hydrological changes due to permafrost warming during 1979–2012, and the simulated results were validated with satellite-based products and in situ observational records. The increase in the active layer thickness by permafrost warming suppressed the summer discharge contrary to the increased summer precipitation. This suggests that the increased terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) contributed to increased evapotranspiration, which likely reduced soil water stress to plants. As soil freeze–thaw processes in permafrost areas serve as factors of climate memory, we identified a two-year lag between precipitation and evapotranspiration via TWSA. The present results will expand our understanding of future Arctic changes and can be applied to Arctic adaptation measures.

Active layer thickness (ALT) is a critical metric for monitoring permafrost. How soil moisture influences ALT depends on two competing hypotheses: (a) increased soil moisture increases the latent heat of fusion for thaw, resulting in shallower active layers, and (b) increased soil moisture increases soil thermal conductivity, resulting in deeper active layers. To investigate their relative influence on thaw depth, we analyzed the Field Measurements of Soil Moisture and Active Layer Thickness (SMALT) in Alaska and Canada dataset, consisting of thousands of measurements of thaw depth and soil moisture collected at dozens of sites across Alaska and Canada as part of NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). As bulk volumetric water content (VWC) integrated over the entire active layer increases, ALT decreases, supporting the latent heat hypothesis. However, as VWC in the top 12 cm of soil increases, ALT increases, supporting the thermal conductivity hypothesis. Regional temperature variations determine the baseline thaw depth while precipitation may influence the sensitivity of ALT to changes in VWC. Soil latent heat dominates over thermal conductivity in determining ALT, and the effect of bulk VWC on ALT appears consistent across sites.

The changing thermal state of permafrost is an important indicator of climate change in northern high latitude ecosystems. The seasonally thawed soil active layer thickness (ALT) overlying permafrost may be deepening as a consequence of enhanced polar warming and widespread permafrost thaw in northern permafrost regions (NPRs). The associated increase in ALT may have cascading effects on ecological and hydrological processes that impact climate feedback. However, past NPR studies have only provided a limited understanding of the spatially continuous patterns and trends of ALT due to a lack of long-term high spatial resolution ALT data across the NPR. Using a suite of observational biophysical variables and machine learning (ML) techniques trained with available in situ ALT network measurements ( n = 2966 site-years), we produced annual estimates of ALT at 1 km resolution over the NPR from 2003 to 2020. Our ML-derived ALT dataset showed high accuracy ( R 2 = 0.97) and low bias when compared with in situ ALT observations. We found the ALT distribution to be most strongly affected by local soil properties, followed by topographic elevation and land surface temperatures. Pair-wise site-level evaluation between our data-driven ALT with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring data indicated that about 80% of sites had a deepening ALT trend from 2003 to 2020. Based on our long-term gridded ALT data, about 65% of the NPR showed a deepening ALT trend, while the entire NPR showed a mean deepening trend of 0.11 ± 0.35 cm yr −1 [25%–75% quantile: (−0.035, 0.204) cm yr −1 ]. The estimated ALT trends were also sensitive to fire disturbance. Our new gridded ALT product provides an observationally constrained, updated understanding of the progression of thawing and the thermal state of permafrost in the NPR, as well as the underlying environmental drivers of these trends.

Permafrost stability is significantly influenced by the thermal buffering effects of snow and active-layer peat soils. In the warm season, peat soils act as a barrier to downward heat transfer mainly due to their low thermal conductivity. In the cold season, the snowpack serves as a thermal insulator, retarding the release of heat from the soil to the atmosphere. Currently, many global land models overestimate permafrost soil temperature and active layer thickness (ALT), partially due to inaccurate representations of soil organic matter (SOM) density profiles and snow thermal insulation. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of SOM and snow schemes on ALT simulations at pan-Arctic permafrost sites using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). We conducted simulations at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites across the pan-Arctic domain. We improved ELM-simulated site-level ALT using a knowledge-based hierarchical optimization procedure and examined the effects of precipitation-phase partitioning methods (PPMs), snow compaction schemes, and snow thermal conductivity schemes on simulated snow depth, soil temperature, ALT, and CO2 fluxes. Results showed that the optimized ELM significantly improved agreement with observed ALT (e.g. RMSE decreased from 0.83 m to 0.15 m). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that snow-related schemes significantly impact simulated snow thermal insulation levels, soil temperature, and ALT. For example, one of the commonly used snow thermal conductivity schemes (quadratic Sturm or SturmQua) generally produced warmer soil temperatures and larger ALT compared to the other two tested schemes. The SturmQua scheme also amplified the model’s sensitivity to PPMs and predicted deeper ALTs than the other two snow schemes under both current and future climates. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing snow-related processes and peat soils in land models to enhance permafrost dynamics simulations.

High-latitude and altitude cold regions are affected by climate warming and permafrost degradation. One of the major concerns associated with degrading permafrost is thaw subsidence (TS) due to melting of excess ground ice and associated thaw consolidation. Field observations, remote sensing, and numerical modeling are used to measure and estimate the extent and rates of TS across broad spatial and temporal scales. Our new data synthesis effort from diverse permafrost regions of North America and Eurasia, confirms widespread TS across the panarctic permafrost domain with rates of up to 2 cm yr−1 in the areas with low ice content and more than 3 cm yr−1 in regions with ice-rich permafrost. Areas with human activities or areas affected by wildfires exhibited higher subsidence rates. Our findings suggest that permafrost landscapes are undergoing geomorphic change that is impacting hydrology, ecosystems, and human infrastructure. The development of a systematic TS monitoring is urgently needed to deliver consistent and continuous exchange of data across different permafrost regions. Integration of coordinated field observations, remote sensing, and modeling of TS across a range of scales would contribute to better understanding of rapidly changing permafrost environments and resulting climate feedbacks.

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T SOIL ) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T SOIL , active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T SOIL . Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.

Whilst permafrost change is widely concerned in the context of global warming, lack of observations becomes one of major limitations for conducting large‐scale and long‐term permafrost change research. Reanalysis/assimilation data in theory can make up for the lack of observations, but how they characterize permafrost extent and active layer thickness remains unclear. Here, we investigate the near‐surface permafrost extent and active layer thickness characterized by seven reanalysis/assimilation datasets (CFSR, MERRA‐2, ERA5, ERA5‐Land, GLDAS‐CLSMv20, GLDAS‐CLSMv21, and GLDAS‐Noah). Results indicate that most of reanalysis/assimilation data have limited abilities in characterizing near‐surface permafrost extent and active layer thickness. GLDAS‐CLSMv20 is overall optimal in terms of comprehensive performance in characterizing both present‐day near‐surface permafrost extent and active layer thickness change. The GLDAS‐CLSMv20 indicates that near‐surface permafrost extent decreases by −0.69 × 106 km2 decade−1 and active layer deepens by 0.06 m decade−1 from 1979 to 2014. Change in active layer is significantly correlated to air temperature, precipitation, and downward longwave radiation in summer, but the correlations show regional differences. Our study implies an imperative to advance reanalysis/assimilation data's abilities to reproduce permafrost, especially for reanalysis data. Most of reanalysis/assimilation datasets have limited abilities in characterizing near‐surface permafrost extent and active layer thickness, leaving a great room for improvement. GLDAS‐CLSMv20 is overall optimal in terms of comprehensive performance in characterizing both present‐day near‐surface permafrost extent and active layer thickness change. Change in active layer thickness is significantly correlated to air temperature, precipitation, and downward longwave radiation in summer, but presenting regional differences.

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has responded to remarkable climate warming with dramatic permafrost degradation over the past few decades. Previous studies have mostly focused on permafrost responses to rising air temperature, while the effects of accompanying increases in precipitation remain contentious and largely unknown. In this study, a distributed process-based model was applied to quantify the impacts of increased precipitation on permafrost thermal regimes in a warming climate by employing model experiments in the source region of Yellow River (SRYR) on the eastern QTP. The results showed that the active layer thickness (ALT) of permafrost increased by 0.25 m during 2010–2019 compared to 2000 across the SRYR, which was primarily driven by climate warming. In contrast, the increased annual precipitation played a relatively limited role and just slightly mitigated active layer thickening by 0.03 m. Intriguingly, increased precipitation in the cold and warm seasons exerted opposite effects on permafrost across the SRYR. The increased precipitation in the cold season mainly promoted ALT increases, while the increased precipitation in the warm season mitigated ALT increases. In ∼81.0% of the permafrost across the SRYR, the cooling effects of warm season wetting outweighed the warming effects of cold season wetting; while at the transition zone where permafrost was unstable and degrading to seasonally frozen ground, the warming effects of cold season wetting played a relatively larger role which contributed to permafrost degradation. This study explored the physical mechanisms of permafrost thermal responses to climate wetting, thus providing a better understanding of permafrost change in a warmer and wetter climate on the QTP.

The active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions regulates hydrological cycles, water sustainability, and ecosystem functions in the cryosphere and is extremely sensitive to climate change. Previous studies often focused on the impacts of rising temperature on the ALT, while the roles of soil water content and soil granularity have rarely been investigated. Here, we incorporate alterations of soil water contents in soil thermal properties across various soil granularities and assess spatiotemporal ALT dynamics on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The regional average ALT on the QTP is projected to be nearly 4 m by 2100. Our results indicate that soil wetting decelerates the active layer thickening in response to warming, while latent heat exerts stronger control on ALTs than thermal conductivity does. Under similar warming conditions, active layers thicken faster in coarse soils than in fine soils. An important ramification of this study is that neglecting soil wetting may cause overestimations of active layer thickening on the QTP.

The extent of wildfires in tundra ecosystems has dramatically increased since the turn of the 21st century due to climate change and the resulting amplified Arctic warming. We simultaneously studied the recovery of vegetation, subsurface soil moisture, and active layer thickness (ALT) post-fire in the permafrost-underlain uplands of the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta in southwestern Alaska to understand the interaction between these factors and their potential implications. We used a space-for-time substitution methodology with 2017 Landsat 8 imagery and synthetic aperture radar products, along with 2016 field data, to analyze tundra recovery trajectories in areas burned from 1953 to 2017. We found that spectral indices describing vegetation greenness and surface albedo in burned areas approached the unburned baseline within a decade post-fire, but ecological succession takes decades. ALT was higher in burned areas compared to unburned areas initially after the fire but negatively correlated with soil moisture. Soil moisture was significantly higher in burned areas than in unburned areas. Water table depth (WTD) was 10 cm shallower in burned areas, consistent with 10 cm of the surface organic layer burned off during fire. Soil moisture and WTD did not recover in the 46 years covered by this study and appear linked to the long recovery time of the organic layer.