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result(s) for
"anthropogenic effect"
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High exposure of global tree diversity to human pressure
Safeguarding Earth’s tree diversity is a conservation priority due to the importance of trees for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services such as carbon sequestration. Here, we improve the foundation for effective conservation of global tree diversity by analyzing a recently developed database of tree species covering 46,752 species. We quantify range protection and anthropogenic pressures for each species and develop conservation priorities across taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity dimensions. We also assess the effectiveness of several influential proposed conservation prioritization frameworks to protect the top 17% and top 50% of tree priority areas. We find that an average of 50.2% of a tree species’ range occurs in 110-km grid cells without any protected areas (PAs), with 6,377 small-range tree species fully unprotected, and that 83% of tree species experience nonnegligible human pressure across their range on average. Protecting high-priority areas for the top 17% and 50% priority thresholds would increase the average protected proportion of each tree species’ range to 65.5% and 82.6%, respectively, leaving many fewer species (2,151 and 2,010) completely unprotected. The priority areas identified for trees match well to the Global 200 Ecoregions framework, revealing that priority areas for trees would in large part also optimize protection for terrestrial biodiversity overall. Based on range estimates for >46,000 tree species, our findings show that a large proportion of tree species receive limited protection by current PAs and are under substantial human pressure. Improved protection of biodiversity overall would also strongly benefit global tree diversity.
Journal Article
The geochemistry and isotopic compositions of the Nakdong River, Korea: weathering and anthropogenic effects
The Nakdong River is the longest river in South Korea, and flows through various geological terrains with different land use characteristics; therefore, the geochemistry of its water is expected to be influenced by many factors. In this work, the geochemical characteristics of the Nakdong River were examined, and its chemical compositions, δD, δ
18
O, and δ
13
C
DIC
values, and
87
Sr/
86
Sr ratios were determined to investigate the geological and anthropogenic effects on the geochemistry of the Nakdong River water. The obtained concentrations of major ions were strongly affected by both the anthropogenic activity and weathering of the rocks. With increasing the flow distance, the ion concentrations slightly increased; and after the inflow of the Kumho River, which was the largest tributary running through Daegu (the fourth largest city in South Korea), the concentrations of Na and SO
4
ions abruptly increased and decreased again, suggesting the existence of strong anthropogenic effects caused by sewage treatment plants and dyeing industrial complex. Other activities such as agricultural ones also increased the NO
3
concentration. In July, the high precipitation level from tropical cyclones and downpours decreased the ion concentrations as well as the δD and δ
18
O values. The δ
13
C
DIC
magnitudes showed that the dissolved inorganic carbon mainly originated from mineral weathering upstream, while the oxidation of soil organic materials influenced by agricultural activity became more important downstream. The
87
Sr/
86
Sr ratios revealed that in the upstream regions, the weathering of granite and gneiss complex was dominant, while in the downstream regions, the weathering of sedimentary rocks became more important. The weathering and anthropogenic effects on the river water chemistry were also demonstrated using statistical analysis, which revealed that the water geochemistry was mostly influenced by the anthropogenic sources, including industrial complex, represented by Na, Cl, and SO
4
. The obtained results show that, as compared to the geochemistry of the Han River (which is also a major river in Korea), the geochemistry of the Nakdong River is more influenced by anthropogenic activities (including agriculture and the industrial complex) due to the different land use.
Journal Article
Trend of Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China and Associated Large-Scale Climate Variability over the Last 100 Years
Using the reconstructed continuous and homogenized surface air temperature (SAT) series for 16 cities across eastern China (where the greatest industrial developments in China have taken place) back to the nineteenth century, the authors examine linear trends of SAT. The regional-mean SAT over eastern China shows a warming trend of 1.52°C (100 yr)−1during 1909–2010. It mainly occurred in the past 4 decades and this agrees well with the variability in another SAT series developed from a much denser station network (over 400 sites) across this part of China since 1951. This study collects population data for 245 sites (from these 400+ locations) and split these into five equally sized groups based on population size. Comparison of these five groups across different durations from 30 to 60 yr in length indicates that differences in population only account for between 9% and 24% of the warming since 1951. To show that a larger urbanization impact is very unlikely, the study additionally determines how much can be explained by some large-scale climate indices. Anomalies of large-scale climate indices such as the tropical Indian Ocean SST and the Siberian atmospheric circulation systems account for at least 80% of the total warming trends.
Journal Article
Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States
Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex “Gigafire” occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50%of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.
Journal Article
Review of life-cycle based methods for absolute environmental sustainability assessment and their applications
In many regions and at the planetary scale, human pressures on the environment exceed levels that natural systems can sustain. These pressures are caused by networks of human activities, which often extend across countries and continents due to global trade. This has led to an increasing requirement for methods that enable absolute environmental sustainability assessment (AESA) of anthropogenic systems and which have a basis in life cycle assessment (LCA). Such methods enable the comparison of environmental impacts of products, companies, nations, etc, with an assigned share of environmental carrying capacity for various impact categories. This study is the first systematic review of LCA-based AESA methods and their applications. After developing a framework for LCA-based AESA methods, we identified 45 relevant studies through an initial survey, database searches and citation analysis. We characterized these studies according to their intended application, impact categories, basis of carrying capacity estimates, spatial differentiation of environmental model and principles for assigning carrying capacity. We then characterized all method applications and synthesized their results. Based on this assessment, we present recommendations to practitioners on the selection and use of existing LCA-based AESA methods, as well as ways to perform assessments and communicate results to decision-makers. Furthermore, we identify future research priorities intended to extend coverage of all components of the proposed method framework, improve modeling and increase the applicability of methods.
Journal Article
2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years
Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere summer
1
,
2
, 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record
3
,
4
–
5
. However, contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is challenging because the sparse meteorological records from the nineteenth century tend to overestimate temperatures
6
. Here we combine observed and reconstructed June–August surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical summer over the past 2,000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than ca. 0.4 °C. Comparison of the 2023 June–August warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in
ce
536 shows a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93 °C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse-gases-induced warming trend
7
that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event
8
, this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.
Observations and a reconstruction of the June–August surface air temperatures show that 2023 was the warmest summer over the past 2,000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than 0.5 °Cs.
Journal Article
Anthropogenic pressures and life history predict trajectories of seagrass meadow extent at a global scale
Seagrass meadows are threatened by multiple pressures, jeopardizing the many benefits they provide to humanity and biodiversity, including climate regulation and food provision through fisheries production. Conservation of seagrass requires identification of the main pressures contributing to loss and the regions most at risk of ongoing loss. Here, we model trajectories of seagrass change at the global scale and show they are related to multiple anthropogenic pressures but that trajectories vary widely with seagrass life-history strategies. Rapidly declining trajectories of seagrass meadow extent (>25% loss from 2000 to 2010) were most strongly associated with high pressures from destructive demersal fishing and poor water quality. Conversely, seagrass meadow extent was more likely to be increasing when these two pressures were low. Meadows dominated by seagrasses with persistent life-history strategies tended to have slowly changing or stable trajectories, while those with opportunistic species were more variable, with a higher probability of either rapidly declining or rapidly increasing. Global predictions of regions most at risk for decline show high-risk areas in Europe, North America, Japan, and southeast Asia, including places where comprehensive long-term monitoring data are lacking. Our results highlight where seagrass loss may be occurring unnoticed and where urgent conservation interventions are required to reverse loss and sustain their essential services.
Journal Article
Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012. A question of interest across many disciplines concerns the extent to which such extreme events can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. First, a detection and attribution analysis is performed for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period. The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE. Although focus is placed on the 2012 event, the results are generalized to extreme events of other magnitudes, including both past and potential future extremes. Several ensembles of model responses are used, including two single-model large ensembles. Using several different metrics to define the events in question, it is shown that an extreme SIE minimum of the magnitude seen in 2012 is consistent with a scenario including anthropogenic influence and is extremely unlikely in a scenario excluding anthropogenic influence. Hence, the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum provides a counterexample to the often-quoted idea that individual extreme events cannot be attributed to human influence.
Journal Article
Priority areas to protect mangroves and maximise ecosystem services
Anthropogenic activities threaten global biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, area-based conservation efforts typically target biodiversity protection whilst minimising conflict with economic activities, failing to consider ecosystem services. Here we identify priority areas that maximise both the protection of mangrove biodiversity and their ecosystem services. We reveal that despite 13.5% of the mangrove distribution being currently strictly protected, all mangrove species are not adequately represented and many areas that provide disproportionally large ecosystem services are missed. Optimising the placement of future conservation efforts to protect 30% of global mangroves potentially safeguards an additional 16.3 billion USD of coastal property value, 6.1 million people, 1173.1 Tg C, and 50.7 million fisher days yr
−1
. Our findings suggest that there is a pressing need for including ecosystem services in protected area design and that strategic prioritisation and coordination of mangrove conservation could provide substantial benefits to human wellbeing.
Mangroves provide ecosystem services but are threatened by anthropogenic activities. This study identifies priority areas that maximise the protection of mangrove biodiversity and ecosystem services. The authors show that biodiversity can be protected whilst maximising ecosystem benefits, with little or no increase in the protected area required.
Journal Article