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Ash fall layers and vitroclastic-carrying sediments distributed throughout the entire Permian stratigraphic range of the Parana Basin (Brazil and Uruguay) occur in the Tubarao Supergroup (Rio Bonito Formation) and the Passa Dois Group (Irati, Estrada Nova/Teresina, Corumbatai, and Rio do Rasto Formations), which constitute the Gondwana 1 Supersequence. U-Pb zircon ages, acquired by SHRIMP and isotope-dissolution thermal ionization mass spectrometer (ID-TIMS) from tuffs within the Mangrullo and Yaguari Formations of Uruguay, are compatible with a correlation with the Irati and parts of the Teresina and Rio do Rasto Formations, respectively, of Brazil. U-Pb zircon ages suggest maximum depositional ages for the samples: (1) Rio Bonito Formation: ages ranging from 295.8±3.1 to 304.0±5.6 Ma (Asselian, lowermost Permian), consistent with the age range of the Protohaploxypinus goraiensis subzone; (2) Irati Formation: ages ranging from 279.9±4.8 to 280.0±3.0 Ma (Artinskian, Middle Permian), consistent with the occurrence of species of the Lueckisporites virkkiae zone; (3) Rio do Rasto Formation: ages ranging from 266.7±5.4 to 274.6±6.3 Ma (Wordian to Roadian, Middle Permian). All the SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages are consistent with their superimposition order in the stratigraphy, the latest revisions to the Permian timescale (International Commission of Stratigraphy, 2018 version), and the most recent appraisals of biostratigraphic data. The ID-TIMS U-Pb zircon ages from the Corumbatai Formation suggest that U-Pb ages may be >10% younger than interpreted biostratigraphic ages.

Volcanic ash fall-out represents a serious hazard for air and road traffic. The forecasting models used to predict its time–space evolution require information about the core characteristics of volcanic particles, such as their granulometry. Typically, such information is gained by the spot direct observation of the ash collected at the ground or by using expensive instrumentation. In this paper, a vision-based methodology aimed at the estimation of ash granulometry is presented. A dedicated image processing paradigm was developed and implemented in LabVIEW™. The methodology was validated experimentally using digital reference images resembling different operating conditions. The outcome of the assessment procedure was very encouraging, showing an accuracy of the image processing algorithm of 1.76%.

In the event of a major volcanic eruption in the Korean Peninsula and other neighboring countries, there is a potential for widespread damage due to volcanic ash fallout, affecting various sectors across the country. Our study focuses on analyzing the importance and interconnectedness of different areas to develop effective volcanic ash risk assessment techniques and damage mitigation measures. We classified the areas susceptible to volcanic ash damage and analyzed the risks and interconnections of each sector using the analytic network process (ANP). We categorized the damage caused by volcanic ash into three major groups—human, facility, and industrial damage. Through a preliminary review, we identified 21 influence relationships among sectors affected by volcanic ash, which were incorporated into the ANP analysis. We designed an analytical network structure model to reflect the classification and correlation of damage areas, along with constructing a network syntax. Expert surveys were conducted to analyze importance and correlation using the SuperDecisions software. Transportation facilities, such as aviation, ships and ports, and infrastructure facilities, including electricity, broadcasting and telecommunications, were identified as high-risk areas. Hence, prioritizing these sectors in the development of volcanic ash risk assessment and mitigation technologies is crucial. In terms of interconnectivity, the electricity sector exhibited a ripple effect on all other areas. Medical facilities were particularly susceptible to influences from damage to roads, water supply, and electricity. The identification of volcanic ash risk facility sectors in this study is expected to contribute to establishing a comprehensive mid-to-long term strategy for volcano disaster prevention.

Every now and again Earth experiences tremendous explosive volcanic eruptions, considerably bigger than the largest witnessed in historic times. Those yielding more than 450km3 of magma have been called super-eruptions. The record of such eruptions is incomplete; the most recent known example occurred 26000 years ago. It is more likely that the Earth will next experience a super-eruption than an impact from a large meteorite greater than 1km in diameter. Depending on where the volcano is located, the effects will be felt globally or at least by a whole hemisphere. Large areas will be devastated by pyroclastic flow deposits, and the more widely dispersed ash falls will be laid down over continent-sized areas. The most widespread effects will be derived from volcanic gases, sulphur gases being particularly important. This gas is converted into sulphuric acid aerosols in the stratosphere and layers of aerosol can cover the global atmosphere within a few weeks to months. These remain for several years and affect atmospheric circulation causing surface temperature to fall in many regions. Effects include temporary reductions in light levels and severe and unseasonable weather (including cool summers and colder-than-normal winters). Some aspects of the understanding and prediction of super-eruptions are problematic because they are well outside modern experience. Our global society is now very different to that affected by past, modest-sized volcanic activity and is highly vulnerable to catastrophic damage of infrastructure by natural disasters. Major disruption of services that society depends upon can be expected for periods of months to, perhaps, years after the next very large explosive eruption and the cost to global financial markets will be high and sustained.

Statistical emulators are a key tool for rapidly producing probabilistic hazard analysis of geophysical processes. Given output data computed for a relatively small number of parameter inputs, an emulator interpolates the data, providing the expected value of the output at untried inputs and an estimate of error at that point. In this work, we propose to fit Gaussian Process emulators to the output from a volcanic ash transport model, Ash3d. Our goal is to predict the simulated volcanic ash thickness from Ash3d at a location of interest using the emulator. Our approach is motivated by two challenges to fitting emulators—characterizing the input wind field and interactions between that wind field and variable grain sizes. We resolve these challenges by using physical knowledge on tephra dispersal. We propose new physically motivated variables as inputs and use normalized output as the response for fitting the emulator. Subsetting based on the initial conditions is also critical in our emulator construction. Simulation studies characterize the accuracy and efficiency of our emulator construction and also reveal its current limitations. Our work represents the first emulator construction for volcanic ash transport models with considerations of the simulated physical process.

Plant communities of the geologic past can be reconstructed with high fidelity only if they were preserved in place in an instant in time. Here we report such a flora from an early Permian (ca. 298 Ma) ash-fall tuff in Inner Mongolia, a time interval and area where such information is filling a large gap of knowledge. About 1,000 m2 of forest growing on peat could be reconstructed based on the actual location of individual plants. Tree ferns formed a lower canopy and either Cordaites, a coniferophyte, or Sigillaria, a lycopsid, were present as taller trees. Noeggerathiales, an enigmatic and extinct spore-bearing plant group of small trees, is represented by three species that have been found as nearly complete specimens and are presented in reconstructions in their plant community. Landscape heterogenity is apparent, including one site where Noeggerathiales are dominant. This peat-forming flora is also taxonomically distinct from those growing on clastic soils in the same area and during the same time interval. This Permian flora demonstrates both similarities and differences to floras of the same age in Europe and North America and confirms the distinct character of the Cathaysian floral realm. Therefore, this flora will serve as a baseline for the study of other fossil floras in East Asia and the early Permian globally that will be needed for a better understanding of paleoclimate evolution through time.

Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfall-induced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity-Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.

The 2015 eruption of Hakone volcano was a very small phreatic eruption, with total erupted ash estimated to be in the order of only 102 m3 and ballistic blocks reaching less than 30 m from the vent. Precursors, however, had been recognized at least 2 months before the eruption and mitigation measures were taken by the local governments well in advance. In this paper, the course of precursors, the eruption and the post-eruptive volcanic activity are reviewed, and a preliminary model for the magma-hydrothermal process that caused the unrest and eruption is proposed. Also, mitigation measures taken during the unrest and eruption are summarized and discussed. The first precursors observed were an inflation of the deep source and deep low-frequency earthquakes in early April 2015; an earthquake swarm then started in late April. On May 3, steam wells in Owakudani, the largest fumarolic area on the volcano, started to blowout. Seismicity reached its maximum in mid-May and gradually decreased; however, at 7:32 local time on June 29, a shallow open crack was formed just beneath Owakudani as inferred from sudden tilt change and InSAR analysis. The same day mud flows and/or debris flows likely started before 11:00 and ash emission began at about 12:30. The volcanic unrest and the eruption of 2015 can be interpreted as a pressure increase in the hydrothermal system, which was triggered by magma replenishment to a deep magma chamber. Such a pressure increase was also inferred from the 2001 unrest and other minor unrests of Hakone volcano during the twenty-first century. In fact, monitoring of repeated periods of unrest enabled alerting prior to the 2015 eruption. However, since open crack formation seems to occur haphazardly, eruption prediction remains impossible and evacuation in the early phase of volcanic unrest is the only way to mitigate volcanic hazard.

Zircon U-Pb geochronology was applied to investigate the provenance, depositional ages, and paleogeography of the southwestern Gondwana in detrital and ash fall sediments from Carboniferous to Jurassic succession of the southern Paraná Basin. Four detrital age populations suggest provenance from local and distal sources located to the south, southeast, and southwest: (i) Archean to Paleoproterozoic zircons from the Rio de La Plata Craton, Nico Peres and Taquarembó terranes; (ii) Grenvillian zircons from the basement of the Gondwanides and Namaqua–Natal belts; (iii) Neoproterozoic grains from the Don Feliciano Belt; and (iv) Phanerozoic populations from Paleozoic orogenic belts and related foreland systems in Argentina, as well as eroded units of the Paraná Basin. The paleogeographic reconstruction indicates an evolution in three distinct stages: (1) a gulf open to the Panthalassa Ocean during the Carboniferous; (2) an epicontinental sea with the rise of the Gondwanides Orogeny during the Permian; and (3) continental deposits controlled by an intra-plate graben system during the Triassic. Permian–Triassic volcanogenic zircons provide constrained maximum depositional ages and attested persistent volcanism, related to the Choiyoi magmatism and effects of the climate change episodes. During the Triassic, the extensional graben system recorded the uplift of the basement through regional northwest and northeast fault systems, and the recycling of Permian zircons, modifying source-to-sink relationships.

Incorporating the influence of soil layering and local variability into the parameterizations of physics-based numerical models for distributed landslide susceptibility assessments remains a challenge. Typical applications employ substantial simplifications including homogeneous soil units and soil-hydraulic properties assigned based only on average textural classifications; the potential impact of these assumptions is usually disregarded. We present a multi-scale approach for parameterizing the distributed Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model that accounts for site-specific spatial variations in both soil thickness and complex layering properties by defining homogeneous soil properties that vary spatially for each model grid cell. These effective properties allow TRIGRS to accurately simulate the timing and distribution of slope failures without any modification of the model structure. We implemented this approach for the carbonate ridge of Sarno Mountains (southern Italy) whose slopes are mantled by complex layered soils of pyroclastic origin. The urbanized foot slopes enveloping these mountains are among the most landslide-prone areas of Italy and have been subjected to repeated occurrences of damaging and deadly rainfall-induced flow-type shallow landslides. At this scope, a primary local-scale application of TRIGRS was calibrated on physics-based rainfall thresholds, previously determined by a coupled VS2D (version 1.3) hydrological modeling and slope stability analysis. Subsequently, by taking into account the spatial distribution of soil thickness and vertical heterogeneity of soil hydrological and mechanical properties, a distributed assessment of landslide hazard was carried out by means of TRIGRS. The combination of these approaches led to the spatial assessment of landslide hazard under different hypothetical rainfall intensities and antecedent hydrological conditions. This approach to parameterizing TRIGRS can be adapted to other spatially variable soil layering and thickness to improve hazard assessments.