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Portfolio construction for today's markets : a practitioner's guide to the essentials of asset allocation
For most of the past 50 years the simplest asset allocation solution was often the best. A balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds provided the investor with good returns. Unfortunately, this approach is not likely to work as well in the future. Interest rates are close to historic lows, equity valuations and bond prices appear stretched, and global economic growth has slowed. Investors need a new asset allocation solution. In 'Portfolio Construction for Today's Markets,' BlackRock Portfolio Manager and investment expert Russ Koesterich addresses this problem by describing the step-by-step approach to building a portfolio consistent with investor goals and suited to today's market environment.
Book
Pricing Model Performance and the Two-Pass Cross-Sectional Regression Methodology
Over the years, many asset pricing studies have employed the sample cross-sectional regression (CSR) R² as a measure of model performance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this statistic and develop associated model comparison tests, taking into account the impact of model misspecification on the variability of the CSR estimates. We encounter several examples of large R² differences that are not statistically significant. A version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (CAPM) exhibits the best overall performance, followed by the Fama-French three-factor model. Interestingly, the performance of prominent consumption CAPMs is sensitive to variations in experimental design.
Journal Article
Intermediary Asset Pricing
We model the dynamics of risk premia during crises in asset markets where the marginal investor is a financial intermediary. Intermediaries face an equity capital constraint. Risk premia rise when the constraint binds, reflecting the capital scarcity. The calibrated model matches the nonlinearity of risk premia during crises and the speed of reversion in risk premia from a crisis back to precrisis levels. We evaluate the effect of three government policies: reducing intermediaries borrowing costs, injecting equity capital, and purchasing distressed assets. Injecting equity capital is particularly effective because it alleviates the equity capital constraint that drives the model's crisis.
Journal Article
Portfolio Choice with Illiquid Assets
We present a model of optimal allocation to liquid and illiquid assets, where illiquidity risk results from the restriction that an asset cannot be traded for intervals of uncertain duration. Illiquidity risk leads to increased and state-dependent risk aversion and reduces the allocation to both liquid and illiquid risky assets. Uncertainty about the length of the illiquidity interval, as opposed to a deterministic nontrading interval, is a primary determinant of the cost of illiquidity. We allow market liquidity to vary from “normal” periods, when all assets are fully liquid, to “illiquidity crises,” when some assets can only be traded infrequently. The possibility of a liquidity crisis leads to limited arbitrage in normal times. Investors are willing to forgo 2% of their wealth to hedge against illiquidity crises occurring once every 10 years.
This paper was accepted by Itay Goldstein, finance.
Journal Article
Rollover Risk and Market Freezes
The debt capacity of an asset is the maximum amount that can be borrowed using the asset as collateral. We model a sudden collapse in the debt capacity of good collateral. We assume short-term debt that must be frequently rolled over, a small transaction cost of selling collateral in the event of default, and a small probability of meeting a buy-to-hold investor. We then show that a small change in the asset's fundamental value can be associated with a catastrophic drop in the debt capacity, the kind of market freeze observed during the crisis of 2007 to 2008.
Journal Article
Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management
We consider a model where investors can invest directly or search for an asset manager, information about assets is costly, and managers charge an endogenous fee. The efficiency of asset prices is linked to the efficiency of the asset management market: if investors can find managers more easily, more money is allocated to active management, fees are lower, and asset prices are more efficient. Informed managers outperform after fees, uninformed managers underperform, while the average manager's performance depends on the number of \"noise allocators.\" Small investors should remain uninformed, but large and sophisticated investors benefit from searching for informed active managers since their search cost is low relative to capital. Hence, managers with larger and more sophisticated investors are expected to outperform.
Journal Article