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Wang, H.; Li, W.; Zuo, C.; Dong, J.; Li, C.; Xu, H.; Liu, Q., and Pan, S., 2020. Saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River estuary (China): Variation characteristics and cause analysis. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(6), 1145–1153. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The characteristics and influence factors of saltwater intrusions in the Pearl River Estuary were analyzed with tide gauge observation data, sea-level rise impact investigation data, and discharge data. The results show that (1) Seasonal variations in saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River estuary are obvious. Intrusion usually begins in September–October and ends in March–April of the following year. More saltwater is present in January, February, and October, which all had more than 10 events in the last 10 years. The number of saltwater intrusions fluctuated during 2009–2018, with the highest number of 14 in 2010 and the lowest of 2 in 2015. The annual saltwater intrusion duration increased obviously during 2015–2018 and lasted 171 days in 2018. (2) The integrated influence factor of sea level and discharge is closely related to frequency and duration of saltwater occurrence, with correlation coefficients of 0.7 and 0.5, respectively (95% confidence). From January to March, the Pearl River is in the dry season, and the integrated influence factor of sea level and discharge is positive, corresponding to more saltwater intrusions. From April to August, the seasonal sea level is low and discharge is high, resulting in a negative integrated influence factor of sea level and discharge and nearly no saltwater intrusion. From September to December, the seasonal sea level is high and the discharge is low. The integrated influence factor of sea level and discharge is higher than 1, corresponding to the high occurrence of saltwater intrusions. (3) Astronomical high tides mostly occur during return tides. The combination of astronomical tides and storm surges aggravates saltwater intrusions and their influence. (4) Countermeasures, including saltwater monitoring and forecasting, river basin management, and water conservation, are suggested to effectively address saltwater intrusion.

The extreme values of high tides are generally caused by a combination of astronomical and meteorological causes, as well as by the conformation of the sea basin. One place where the extreme values of the tide have a considerable practical interest is the city of Venice. The MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) system was created to protect Venice from flooding caused by the highest tides. Proper operation of the protection system requires an adequate forecast model of the highest tides, which is able to provide reliable forecasts even some days in advance. Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) neural networks are particularly effective in predicting time series of hydrological quantities. In this work, the effectiveness of two distinct NARX-based models was demonstrated in predicting the extreme values of high tides in Venice. The first model requires as input values the astronomical tide, barometric pressure, wind speed, and direction, as well as previously observed sea level values. The second model instead takes, as input values, the astronomical tide and the previously observed sea level values, which implicitly take into account the weather conditions. Both models proved capable of predicting the extreme values of high tides with great accuracy, even greater than that of the models currently used.

Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation (Z*MHW), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z*MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z*MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z*MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z*MHW and Z*MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z*MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z*MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

In the Casablanca-Mohammedia corridor (Morocco), flooding episodes have happened frequently over the past 20 years, damaging coastal settlements through overtopping and overflowing processes. In this context, a realistic assessment of the flood risk on this coastline is required. For this, the marine water level variations were computed by combining the involved variables (astronomical tide, storm surge, wave run-up, and sea level rise) during energetic events. They were compared with the seafront altitude to delineate the maximum spatial extent of flooded areas for the current and future (2100) time horizons. These variables were obtained through numerical and empirical modeling using topobathymetry, tide gauge, wind, and reanalysis data for wave and atmospheric pressure. Statistical methods were used to determine trends and distributions, including linear regression and the GEV model. Our approach was validated by comparing the estimated results of the total water level with the observations made in situ during previous events. Results show that flooding occurs mainly at high tides. The run-up is the largest contributor to total water level during energetic events (45–60% in structure defense areas against ~ 35% in natural areas). Currently, the floodable area for all of Casablanca-Mohammedia's coastline (109 km 2 ) is estimated to be ~ 23.5 km 2 , of which ~ 13.9 km 2 is urban. This area would grow by 10.87% and 20.9% by 2100, respectively. The most vulnerable zones are Mohammedia, Ain Sbâa, and Merzeg quarters, as well as Tamaris beaches. The touristic quarters of Ain Diab and the promenades on either side of the Hassan II Mosque are also vulnerable and can be dangerous for pedestrians. This study is crowned by the proposal of numerous necessary protection and adaptation measures, considering the specificities of the sections characterizing this coastline.

One of the manifests of air-sea interactions is the change in sea level due to meteorological forcing through wind stress and atmospheric pressure. When meteorological conditions conducive to water level increase coincide with high tides during spring tides, the sea level may rise higher than expected and pose a flood risk to coastal low-lying areas. In Hong Kong, specifically when the northeast monsoon coincides with the higher spring tides in late autumn and winter, and sometimes even compounded by the storm surge brought by late-season tropical cyclones (TCs), the result may be coastal flooding or sea inundation. Aiming at forecasting such sea level anomalies on the scale of hours and days with local tide gauges using a flexible and computationally efficient method, this study adapts a data-driven method based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) regression of non-uniformly lagged regional wind field from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) to capture the effects from synoptic weather evolution patterns, excluding the effect of TCs. Local atmospheric pressure and winds are also included in the predictors of the regression model. Verification results show good performance in general. Hindcast using ECMWF forecasts as input reveals that the reduction of mean absolute error (MAE) by adding the anomaly forecast to the existing predicted astronomical tide was as high as 30% in February on average over the whole range of water levels, as well as that compared against the Delft3D forecast in a strong northeast monsoon case. The EOF method generally outperformed the persistence method in forecasting water level anomaly for a lead time of more than 6 h. The performance was even better particularly for high water levels, making it suitable to serve as a forecast reference tool for providing high water level alerts to relevant emergency response agencies to tackle the risk of coastal inundation in non-TC situations and an estimate of the anomaly contribution from the northeast monsoon under its combined effect with TC. The model is capable of improving water level forecasts up to a week ahead, despite the general decreasing model performance with increasing lead time due to less accurate input from model forecasts at a longer range. Some cases show that the model successfully predicted both positive and negative anomalies with a magnitude similar to observations up to 5 to 7 days in advance.

Coastal flooding in the northern Yucatán Peninsula is mainly associated with storm surge events triggered by high-pressure cold front systems. This study evaluates the hydrodynamic processes of the Chelem lagoon, Mexico and the flooding threat from cold fronts for the neighbouring town of Progreso. A 30-year water-level hindcast (excluding wave set-up) was performed because of the lack of long-term tide gauge records. In order to assess the relative contribution from wave set-up and residual and astronomical tides to total flooding, the two worst storm scenarios in terms of maximum residual tide (Event A) and maximum water level (Event B) were simulated. Numerical results suggest that during Event A the wave set-up contribution reaches 0.35 at the coast and 0.17 m inside the lagoon, and these values are smaller for Event B (0.30 and 0.14 m, respectively). Results of the effect of the tidal phase on wave set-up and residual sea level show that (i) the wave set-up contribution increases during ebb tide and decreases during flood tide at the Chelem inlet, (ii) the residual tide is larger (smaller) near low (high) or receding (rising) tide, and (iii) maximum flooding occurs when the storm peak coincides with rising or high tide. The numerical results confirm the important role of wave set-up on the assessment of coastal flooding in micro-tidal coastal environments.

The interaction between waves, surges, and astronomical tides can lead to high coastal total water level (TWL), which can in turn trigger coastal flooding. Here, a high-resolution (1.5 km) simulation from a UK-focused regional coupled environmental prediction system is used to investigate the extreme events of winter 2013/4 around the UK and Irish coasts. The aim is to analyse the spatial distribution of coastal TWL and its components during this period by assessing (1) the relative contribution of different TWL components around the coast; (2) how extreme waves, surges, and tide interacted and if they occurred simultaneously; and (3) if this has implications in defining the severity of coastal hazard conditions. The TWL components' coastal distribution in winter 2013/4 was not constant in space, impacting differently over different regions. High (>90th percentile) waves and high surges occurred simultaneously at any tidal stage, including high tide (7.7 % of cases), but more often over the flood tide. During periods of high flood risk, a hazard proxy, defined as the sum of the sea surface height and half the significant wave height, at least doubled from average over three-quarters of the coast. These results have important implications for the risk management sector.

In this study, monsoon-induced surge during high tides at the Southeast coast of Vietnam was analyzed based on the observed tide data at the Vung Tau station in the period between 1997—2016. Specifically, the surge was determined by removing the astronomical tide from the observed total water level. The two-dimensional Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS 2D) was applied to simulate the surge induced by monsoons during spring tide. The surge observations showed that the change of peak surge did not follow a clear trend, of either an increase or decrease, over time. A peak surge of over 40 cm appeared mainly in October and November, although the peak of the astronomical tide was higher in December. ROMS 2D was validated with the observational data, and the model could sufficiently reproduce the wind-induced surge during high tides. This study therefor ere commends for ROMS 2D to be used in operational forecasts in this area.

Severe tropical cyclone (TC) Debbie made landfall on the northern Queensland coast of Australia on 27 March 2017 after crossing the Great Barrier Reef as a slow-moving Category 4 system. Groups from industry, government and academia collected coastal hazard and impact data before, during and after the event and shared these data to produce a holistic picture of TC Debbie at the coast. Results showed the still water level exceeded the highest astronomical tide by almost a metre. Waves added a further 16 % to water levels along the open coast, and were probably unprecedented for this area since monitoring began. In most places, coastal barriers were not breached and as a result there was net offshore sand transport. If landfall had occurred 2 h earlier with the high tide, widespread inundation and overwash would have ensued. This paper provides a case study of effective cross-sector data sharing in a natural hazard context. It advocates for a shared information platform for coastal extremes in Australia to help improve the understanding and prediction of TC-related coastal hazards in the future.

A dry general circulation model is used to investigate how coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the extratropical tropospheric circulation depends on the latitude of the tropospheric jet. The tropospheric response to an identical stratospheric vortex configuration is shown to be strongest for a jet centered near 40° and weaker for jets near either 30° or 50° by more than a factor of 3. Stratosphere-focused mechanisms based on stratospheric potential vorticity inversion, eddy phase speed, and planetary wave reflection, as well as arguments based on tropospheric eddy heat flux and zonal length scale, appear to be incapable of explaining the differences in the magnitude of the jet shift. In contrast, arguments based purely on tropospheric variability involving the strength of eddy–zonal mean flow feedbacks and jet persistence, and related changes in the synoptic eddy momentum flux, appear to explain this effect. The dependence of coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere on tropospheric jet latitude found here is consistent with 1) the observed variability in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific and 2) the trend in the Southern Hemisphere as projected by comprehensive models.