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6 result(s) for "bayesian foragers"
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The characteristic time-scale of perceived information for decision-making
Animals are often required to make decisions about their use of current resources while minimising travel costs and risks due to uncertainty about the forthcoming resources. Passive soaring birds utilise warm rising‐air columns (thermals) to climb up and obtain potential energy for flying across large areas. However, the utilisation of such inconsistent natural resources may be challenging for soaring‐gliding birds and involve a set of decisions to maintain efficient flight. To assess which temporal scales of previous experience with environmental inputs best predicted thermal‐climbing departure decisions of soaring birds, we used movement data from Eurasian griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus) tracked by GPS transmitters. We applied Cox proportional hazard regression and a model selection approach to identify thermal‐climbing departure decisions and to compare a range of temporal scales. Our findings support the use of current and recent (short‐term; last 20 min) experiences, compared to longer term, past experiences, in predicting the time until departure from thermals. The models supported decision rules that integrated information originating from different temporal scales, implying a tendency to depart from a thermal later when the current climb rate was higher than experienced recently and vice versa. In addition, climb rates in thermals revealed significant autocorrelation over short time‐scales (shorter than 30 min). The correspondence between thermals' characteristics and the factors that best predicted thermal‐climbing departure decisions presumably reflects optimal decisions individuals make to handle their dynamic environment and to reduce movement‐related costs of such a basic activity for soaring‐gliding birds. A plain language summary is available for this article. Plain Language Summary
Movement of foraging Tundra Swans explained by spatial pattern in cryptic food densities
We tested whether Tundra Swans use information on the spatial distribution of cryptic food items (belowground Sago pondweed tubers) to shape their movement paths. In a continuous environment, swans create their own food patches by digging craters, which they exploit in several feeding bouts. Series of short (<1 m) intra-patch movements alternate with longer inter-patch movements (>1 m). Tuber biomass densities showed a positive spatial auto-correlation at a short distance (<3 m), but not at a larger distance (3-8 m). Based on the spatial pattern of the food distribution (which is assumed to be pre-harvest information for the swan) and the energy costs and benefits for different food densities at various distances, we calculated the optimal length of an inter-patch movement. A swan that moves to the patch with the highest gain rate was predicted to move to the adjacent patch (at 1 m) if the food density in the current patch had been high (>25 g/m⁲) and to a more distant patch (at 7-8 m) if the food density in the current patch had been low (<25 g/m⁲). This prediction was tested by measuring the response of swans to manipulated tuber densities. In accordance with our predictions, swans moved a long distance (>3 m) from a low-density patch and a short distance (<3 m) from a high-density patch. The quantitative agreement between prediction and observation was greater for swans feeding in pairs than for solitary swans. The result of this movement strategy is that swans visit high-density patches at a higher frequency than on offer and, consequently, achieve a 38% higher long-term gain rate. Swans also take advantage of spatial variance in food abundance by regulating the time in patches, staying longer and consuming more food from rich than from poor patches. We can conclude that the shape of the foraging path is a reflection of the spatial pattern in the distribution of tuber densities and can be understood from an optimal foraging perspective.
Does information sharing promote group foraging?
Individuals may join groups for several reasons, one of which is the possibility of sharing information about the quality of a foraging area. Sharing information in a patch-foraging scenario gives each group member an opportunity to make a more accurate estimate of the quality of the patch. In this paper we present a mathematical model in which we study the effect of group size on patch-leaving policy and per capita intake rate. In the model, group members share information equally in a random search for food. Food is distributed in patches according to a negative binomial distribution. A prediction from our model is that, the larger the group, the earlier each group member should leave the current patch. We also find that the benefit from enhanced exchange of information does not exceed the cost of sharing food with group members. The per capita intake rate decreases as the group size increases. Therefore, animals should only form groups when other factors outweigh the costs, which is easiest to achieve when the travelling time is short.
Twigs date the second Holocene transgression in southwestern Norway
Marine flooding events occasionally interrupted the everyday lives of prehistoric coastal populations. Identification of such events are important for studies of past population dynamics and adaptive strategies. However, short-term events are rarely identified in the geological record, which puts a severe limit on our archaeological interpretive framework. This paper explores the temporality of the second Holocene transgression in southwestern Norway (ca. 3500 BCE) and works under the hypothesis that it was not a slow geological process but rather one or multiple short-term events. A Bayesian approach is used to analyze multidisciplinary time series data collected from sites located in Norway and Shetland. The resulting chronological model supports the hypothesis that the second Holocene transgression in southwestern Norway was a rapid flooding event that occurred in the period 3445–3395 BCE (Early Neolithic II). It is also suggested, but not argued conclusively, that this flooding event could correspond to the Garth tsunami, a paleotsunami named after Garth Loch in Shetland. Considering the potential impact of such a flooding event on the everyday lives of local foragers who dwelled in southwestern Norway, it is anticipated that this study could form a starting point for future case studies.
Foraging in a dynamic environment: Response of four sympatric sub-Antarctic albatross species to interannual environmental variability
Seasonal and annual climate variations are linked to fluctuations in the abundance and distribution of resources, posing a significant challenge to animals that need to adjust their foraging behavior accordingly. Particularly during adverse conditions, and while energetically constrained when breeding, animals ideally need to be flexible in their foraging behavior. Such behavioral plasticity may separate \"winners\" from \"los-ers\" in light of rapid environmental changes due to climate change. Here, the foraging behavior of four sub-Antarctic albatross species was investigated from 2015/16 to 2017/18, a period characterized by pronounced environmental variability. Over three breeding seasons on Marion Island, Prince Edward Archipelago, incubating wandering (WA, Diomedea exulans; n = 45), grey-headed (GHA, Thalassarche chrysostoma; n = 26), sooty (SA, Phoebetria fusca; n = 23), and light-mantled (LMSA, P. palpebrata; n = 22) albatrosses were tracked with GPS loggers. The response of birds to environmental variability was investigated by quantifying interannual changes in their foraging behavior along two axes: spatial distribution, using kernel density analysis, and foraging habitat preference, using generalized additive mixed models and Bayesian mixed models. All four species were shown to respond behaviorally to environmental variability, but with substantial differences in their foraging strategies. WA was most general in its habitat use defined by sea surface height, eddy kinetic energy, wind speed, ocean floor slope, and sea-level anomaly, with individuals foraging in a range of habitats. In contrast, the three smaller albatrosses exploited two main foraging habitats, with habitat use varying between years. Generalist habitat use by WA and interannually variable use of habitats by GHA, SA, and LMSA would likely offer these species some resilience to predicted changes in climate such as warming seas and strengthening of westerly winds. However, future investigations need to consider other life-history stages coupled with demographic studies, to better understand the link between behavioral plasticity and population responses.
High predation on small populations: avian predation on imperiled salmonids
Generalist predators can contribute to extinction risk of imperiled prey populations even through incidental predation. Quantifying predation on small populations is important to manage their recovery, however predation is often challenging to observe directly. Recovery of prey tags at predator colonies can indirectly provide minimum estimates of predation, however overall predation rates often remain unquantifiable because an unknown proportion of tags are deposited off-colony. Here, we estimated overall predation rates on threatened wild juvenile steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) by generalist adult Western Gulls ( Larus occidentalis ) in six central California (USA) watersheds. We estimated predation rates by gulls from the recapture of PIT (passive integrated transponder) tags that were originally inserted into steelhead and were subsequently deposited at a Western Gull breeding colony, Año Nuevo Island (ANI). We combined three independent datasets to isolate different processes: (1) the probability a tagged steelhead was consumed during predation, (2) the probability a consumed tag was transported to ANI, and (3) the probability a transported tag was detected at ANI. Together, these datasets parameterized a hierarchical Bayesian model to quantify overall predation rates while accounting for tag loss between when prey were tagged and subsequent tag detection at ANI. Results from the model suggest that low recovery rates of PIT tags from steelhead at ANI were mostly driven by low probabilities of transportation (≤0.167) of consumed tags to ANI. Low transportation probabilities equate to high per-capita probabilities of predation (≥0.306/yr) at the three watersheds in closest proximity to ANI, whereas predation rates were uncertain at watersheds farther from ANI due to very low transportation rates. This study provides the first overall estimate of Western Gull predation rates on threatened wild juvenile steelhead and suggests gull predation on salmonids is a larger source of mortality than was previously estimated from minimum predation rates. This study thus represents an important example of high rates of incidental predation by a generalist consumer on an imperiled prey and provides a quantitative framework to inform robust estimates of predation rates on small populations that can be applied to other systems where direct observation of predation is not feasible.