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Purpose Geopolitical risks (GPR) and increase in equity market volatility due to health pandemics have great implications on assets prices around the world. Many empirical studies have focused on the effects of these risks on different financial assets. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this related literature by examining the dynamic effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–induced equity market volatility on regional and global house price indexes. Design/methodology/approach This paper explores the asymmetric effects of infectious diseases and GPRs on house prices across different market conditions using the quantile regression approach. This technique enables us to examine the nonlinear asymmetric effects of GPRs and infectious diseases on both global and regional house price indexes using daily data from January 1, 2011, to June 3, 2022. It focuses on both the effects of a composite measure of GPR as well as the disaggregated effects of threats and acts (war) on the real estate markets under different market conditions. Findings The main findings of this study demonstrates that the effects of geopolitical and infectious diseases–related risks vary differently across regional real estate markets and the nature of the GPR. In particular, the effects of geopolitical threats are stronger than those of geopolitical acts, especially for the European, Asia-Pacific and North American regions during bullish market periods. Except for the effects of geopolitical threats during real estate market downturns, the African real estate market appears to be insulated from the effects of GPRs across all market conditions. Also, the authors show that infectious diseases increase losses in real estate investments when the market condition is bearish for all markets and could extend toward the normal market period for the North American, Asia-Pacific and European markets. However, across all the market conditions, the effects of the composite index of GPRs are not significant for the Asia-Pacific and European regional markets. Results are mixed for the remaining markets, especially for the global market. Whereas during bearish market periods, the effect is positive, it becomes negative when the market condition become normal and insignificant when it becomes bullish. For the North American and African regional markets, the effect is positive under the bearish market state. Originality/value Increase in equity market volatility due to infectious diseases as well as conflicts and tensions among major powers, including potential risks of financial instability, all lead to significant increase in shocks to financial markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the asymmetric and comparative effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–related equity market volatility on real estate investments across different regions and market conditions. Because of the complexity of these risks and policy shifts, and the characteristics and heterogeneity of different regional financial markets, the impacts of shock from these risks are intuitively diverse, with practical implications for portfolio management.

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between the fear index and initial public offering (IPO) aftermarket liquidity in ASEAN during the bearish time, the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach This study uses random effect panel regression analysis using two proxies of IPO aftermarket liquidity, namely, volume and turnover, on data of 90 IPO companies in the ASEAN-5 countries over four study periods: 30, 60, 90 and 100 days, after their IPOs. Findings The results indicate that the COVID-19 fear index significantly affects liquidity for all periods. The fear index decreases the stock aftermarket liquidity of ASEAN-5 IPO companies. The findings are consistent with additional tests. Originality/value This study initiates research during the COVID-19 pandemic in ASEAN-5 countries. Furthermore, while the other studies examine the stock performance of existing listed companies, this study focuses exclusively on the liquidity of companies that went public through IPOs in 2020.

The purpose of this research is to analyze and obtain empirical evidence knowing the exact time to be predicted determining the reversal date of the JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) price and Gold prices can use the method of Astrology, Fibonacci, Astronacci. The method used in this research is descriptive and explanatory methods. Descriptive method is used to make steps Astrology, Fibonacci, and Astronacci methods to find the reversal date of the JCI and the price of Gold in the future. While the explanatory method is used to apply Astrology, Fibonacci, and Astronacci methods using historical data (in 2008-2017), JCI and Gold prices. Data used in this study for 1 decade is January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2017. Based on the three methods, the reversal opportunity of both the JCI and the highest Gold price using the Astronacci method rather than astrology or Fibonacci alone.

Prior work shows that both short sales and put options contain information about future stock prices. In this study, we compare the return predictability in short sales to the return predictability in put options. The motivation for this comparison is based on the theoretical argument that informed traders can choose between short sales and put options when establishing short positions in a particular stocks. Results in this paper suggest that the underperformance of stocks with high short-selling activity is approximately four times larger than the underperformance of stocks with high put-option activity. While stocks that are most likely to face binding short-sale constraints drive the underperformance caused by put-option activity, we still find that short sales are generally more informative about future prices.

This paper investigates whether inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading can predict future negative underlying index returns. Using inverse ETF’s turnover rates and price volatilities to represent trading activities, this paper discovers that inverse ETF trading is significantly and positively related to future index returns and infers that the trading of inverse ETFs may not reflect informed pessimistic trading and cannot convey a bearish signal to the market. The trading activities in inverse ETFs do provide information about future index returns, yet what they reflect may be a lagging or less-informed bearish signal

This study investigates the systematic risks in two different market periods (the bearish and the bullish) in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and examines whether there is a systematic risk difference in the two market periods. The data used in this research is the daily closing stock price data of selected stocks and the daily closing of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) during the period January 2, 2014, through March 31, 2016, with data obtained from Bloomberg. The sampling method used was a purposive sampling method with the criteria: never done a stock split, never suspended, and traded actively during the observation period, in order to avoid bias. A total of 26 stocks were found which fulfilled these criteria. The results showed that there is no difference between the bull and bear beta. Also there is no difference between the overall period and either the bull or the bear beta. The findings imply that investors and portfolio managers could use an all period beta as their systematic risk proxy.

Born in 1905 in New York City, Kahn grew up in a working‐class household headed by parents who had emigrated from Poland and Russia. After graduating from DeWitt Clinton High School, Kahn went to the City College of New York to study liberal arts. Kahn's bearish outlook further developed after he read about the early‐1920s Florida real estate boom, in which house prices easily doubled in a matter of weeks, and speculators were leveraging heavily by putting down just 10 percent of the property price in cash. Discussing the investment strategy he has applied throughout his career, Kahn said: “Net‐net stocks were easy to find inthe early days. All I had to do was to look over annual reports and study balance sheets.\" Kahn believed that Wall Street has always been a poor judge of value.\" Kahn believed that Wall Street has always been a poor judge of value.

Continuation patterns indicate a high degree of likelihood that the price will continue moving in its current direction. Triangles, flags, and pennants are common examples of continuation patterns. After a period of trending, a market will undergo a period of “consolidation”. On occasions, these consolidations form specific shapes and patterns known as “continuation patterns”. A bearish descending triangle is an inverted version of the ascending triangle; here, the bears demonstrate their superior firepower by pushing the price to a series of lower highs. During flag and pennant patterns, the price makes a sharp directional move and then consolidates the move by “resting”. A bullish wedge, also referred to as a falling wedge, is a continuation pattern that slopes downward, in the opposite direction of a prior bullish trend. A bearish wedge, also known as a rising wedge, is a continuation pattern move that slopes upward, in the opposite direction of a bearish trend.

Should you buy stocks that perform best when they follow the market trend or go against it? Research shows that stocks which close higher when the market drops at least 1% tend to outperform over the long term. Stocks that close lower when the market jumps upward under perform. This chapter discusses the behavior of stocks that move with and against the market trend and highlights the performance differences to help traders improve their stock selections.