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Portugal is by far the country most affected by wildfires in Mediterranean Europe. The increase in frequency and severity of extreme years in the last two decades calls for a better understanding of the role played by climate variability and climate change. Using data covering a period of 44 years (1980–2023), it is shown that the distribution of annual burned area in Portugal follows a Rayleigh distribution whose logarithm of the scale parameter depends linearly on Cumulative Daily Severity Rate (CDSR). Defined for each year as the sum of the mean Daily Severity Rate over Portugal from 1 January to 31 December, CDSR is a measure of the dryness of dead fuels as induced by atmospheric conditions. Changes along the years of the modeled average explain 56% of the interannual variability of the annual burned area. When comparing the model for 30-year subperiods 1980–2009 and 1994–2023, large decreases are observed in return periods of annual burned area amounts, from 35% for amounts greater than 120 thousand hectares up to 49% for amounts greater than 200 thousand hectares. The proposed model is a useful tool for fire management under present and future climate conditions.

Burned area is a critical input to biomass burning carbon emissions algorithms and for understanding variability in fire activity due to climate change. This study presents the spatial and temporal patterns of wildland fires in the Mongolian Plateau (MP) using Collection 6 NASA MCD64A1 500 m global Burned Area product from 2001 to 2021. Both inter- and intra-annual fire trends and variations in two subregions, Mongolia and China’s Inner Mongolia, were analyzed. The results indicated that an average area of 1.3 × 104 km2 was consumed by fire per year in the MP. The fire season has two peaks: spring (March, April, and May) and autumn (September, October, and December). The profiles of the burnt area for each subregion exhibit distinct seasonality. The majority of wildfires occurred in the northeastern and southwestern regions of the MP, on the border between Mongolia and China. There were 2.7 × 104 km2 of land burned by wildfires in the MP from 2001 to 2021, 57% of which occurred in spring. Dornod aimag (province) of Mongolia is the most fire-prone region, accounting for 51% of the total burned area in the MP, followed by Hulunbuir, at 17%, Sukhbaatar, at 9%, and Khentii at 8%. The changing patterns of spatiotemporal patterns of fire in the MP were analyzed by using a spatiotemporal cube analysis tool, ArcGIS Pro 3.0.2. The results suggested that fires showed a decreasing trend overall in the MP from 2001 to 2021. Fires in the southern region of Dornod aimag and eastern parts of Great Xing’an Mountain showed a sporadic increasing trend. Therefore, these areas should be priorities for future fire protection for both Mongolia and China.

Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire. This article is part of themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.

The monitoring of burned areas can easily be performed using satellite multispectral images: several indices are available in the literature for highlighting the differences between healthy vegetation areas and burned areas, in consideration of their different signatures. However, these indices may have limitations determined, for example, by the presence of clouds or water bodies that produce false alarms. To avoid these inaccuracies and optimize the results, this work proposes a new index for detecting burned areas named Normalized Burn Ratio Plus (NBR+), based on the involvement of Sentinel-2 bands. The efficiency of this index is verified by comparing it with five other existing indices, all applied on an area with a surface of about 500 km2 and covering the north-eastern part of Sicily (Italy). To achieve this aim, both a uni-temporal approach (single date image) and a bi-temporal approach (two date images) are adopted. The maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) is applied to each resulting index map to define the threshold separating burned pixels from non-burned ones. To evaluate the efficiency of the indices, confusion matrices are constructed and compared with each other. The NBR+ shows excellent results, especially because it excludes a large part of the areas incorrectly classified as burned by other indices, despite being clouds or water bodies.

Fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are an important issue globally. To understand the change of WUI, we develop a 9 km worldwide unified wildland-urban interface database for 2001–2020 with Random Forest models and satellite data. We find that WUI has been increasing in all populated continents from 2001 to 2020 and the global relative increase is 24%, with the largest relative increase (∼59%) over Africa. Global total fire counts decrease by 10% from 2005 to 2020, whereas the WUI fraction of fire counts increases by 23%. The global total burned area decreases by 22% from 2005 to 2020, whereas the WUI fraction of burned area increases by 35%. These are mainly due to the expansion of WUI area. On all the populated continents, the WUI fractions of fire counts are higher than the WUI fractions of burned area, implying that WUI fires tend to have smaller sizes than wildland fires. We also project future WUI changes for the years 2030 and 2040, together with the projection of future fire burned area under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). The projected global WUI fraction (excluding Antarctica and the oceans) is 5.9% in 2040 compared to 4.8% in 2020. The global WUI fraction of burned area is projected to increase from now to 2040 under most scenarios analyzed in this study, unless the WUI area stays at the 2020 level together with the projected burned area under SSP4-4.5. This study is a first step to understanding the changes of WUI fires at the global scale and demonstrates a growing importance of WUI fires. The global multi-year WUI and WUI fire datasets developed in this study can facilitate future work quantifying the impacts of WUI fires on air quality and climate.

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is an invasive grass pervasive across the Intermountain Western US and linked to major increases in fire frequency. Despite widespread ecological impacts associated with cheatgrass, we lack a spatially extensive model of cheatgrass invasion in the Intermountain West. Here, we leverage satellite phenology predictors and thousands of field surveys of cheatgrass abundance to create regional models of cheatgrass distribution and percent cover. We compare cheatgrass presence to fire probability, fire seasonality and ignition source. Regional models of percent cover had low predictive power (34% of variance explained), but distribution models based on a threshold of 15% cover to differentiate high abundance from low abundance had an overall accuracy of 74%. Cheatgrass achieves ≥ 15% cover over 210,000 km2 (31%) of the Intermountain West. These lands were twice as likely to burn as those with low abundance, and four times more likely to burn multiple times between 2000 and 2015. Fire probability increased rapidly at low cheatgrass cover (1–5%) but remained similar at higher cover, suggesting that even small amounts of cheatgrass in an ecosystem can increase fire risk. Abundant cheatgrass was also associated with a 10 days earlier fire seasonality and interacted strongly with anthropogenic ignitions. Fire in cheatgrass was particularly associated with human activity, suggesting that increased awareness of fire danger in invaded areas could reduce risk. This study suggests that cheatgrass is much more spatially extensive and abundant than previously documented and that invasion greatly increases fire frequency, even at low percent cover.

Wildfire is an integral part of the Earth system, but at the same time it can pose serious threats to human society and to certain types of terrestrial ecosystems. Meteorological conditions are a key driver of wildfire activity and extent, which led to the emergence of the use of fire danger indices that depend solely on weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a widely used fire danger index of this kind. Here, we evaluate how well the FWI, its components, and the climate variables from which it is derived, correlate with observation-based burned area (BA) for a variety of world regions. We use a novel technique, according to which monthly BA are grouped by size for each Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) pyrographic region. We find strong correlations of BA anomalies with the FWI anomalies, as well as with the underlying deviations from their climatologies for the four climate variables from which FWI is estimated, namely, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind. We quantify the relative sensitivity of the observed BA to each of the four climate variables, finding that this relationship strongly depends on the pyrographic region and land type. Our results indicate that the BA anomalies strongly correlate with FWI anomalies at a GFED region scale, compared to the strength of the correlation with individual climate variables. Additionally, among the individual climate variables that comprise the FWI, relative humidity and temperature are the most influential factors that affect the observed BA. Our results support the use of the composite fire danger index FWI, as well as its sub-indices, the Build-Up Index (BUI) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI), comparing to single climate variables, since they are found to correlate better with the observed forest or non-forest BA, for the most regions across the globe.

Fire is a significant agent of landscape transformation on Earth, and a dynamic and ephemeral process that is challenging to map. Difficulties include the seasonality of native vegetation in areas affected by fire, the high levels of spectral heterogeneity due to the spatial and temporal variability of the burned areas, distinct persistence of the fire signal, increase in cloud and smoke cover surrounding burned areas, and difficulty in detecting understory fire signals. To produce a large-scale time-series of burned area, a robust number of observations and a more efficient sampling strategy is needed. In order to overcome these challenges, we used a novel strategy based on a machine-learning algorithm to map monthly burned areas from 1985 to 2020 using Landsat-based annual quality mosaics retrieved from minimum NBR values. The annual mosaics integrated year-round observations of burned and unburned spectral data (i.e., RED, NIR, SWIR-1, and SWIR-2), and used them to train a Deep Neural Network model, which resulted in annual maps of areas burned by land use type for all six Brazilian biomes. The annual dataset was used to retrieve the frequency of the burned area, while the date on which the minimum NBR was captured in a year, was used to reconstruct 36 years of monthly burned area. Results of this effort indicated that 19.6% (1.6 million km2) of the Brazilian territory was burned from 1985 to 2020, with 61% of this area burned at least once. Most of the burning (83%) occurred between July and October. The Amazon and Cerrado, together, accounted for 85% of the area burned at least once in Brazil. Native vegetation was the land cover most affected by fire, representing 65% of the burned area, while the remaining 35% burned in areas dominated by anthropogenic land uses, mainly pasture. This novel dataset is crucial for understanding the spatial and long-term temporal dynamics of fire regimes that are fundamental for designing appropriate public policies for reducing and controlling fires in Brazil.

Wildfires are major natural disasters negatively affecting human safety, natural ecosystems, and wildlife. Timely and accurate estimation of wildfire burn areas is particularly important for post-fire management and decision making. In this regard, Remote Sensing (RS) images are great resources due to their wide coverage, high spatial and temporal resolution, and low cost. In this study, Australian areas affected by wildfire were estimated using Sentinel-2 imagery and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. To this end, a framework based on change analysis was implemented in two main phases: (1) producing the binary map of burned areas (i.e., burned vs. unburned); (2) estimating burned areas of different Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) types. The first phase was implemented in five main steps: (i) preprocessing, (ii) spectral and spatial feature extraction for pre-fire and post-fire analyses; (iii) prediction of burned areas based on a change detection by differencing the pre-fire and post-fire datasets; (iv) feature selection; and (v) binary mapping of burned areas based on the selected features by the classifiers. The second phase was defining the types of LULC classes over the burned areas using the global MODIS land cover product (MCD12Q1). Based on the test datasets, the proposed framework showed high potential in detecting burned areas with an overall accuracy (OA) and kappa coefficient (KC) of 91.02% and 0.82, respectively. It was also observed that the greatest burned area among different LULC classes was related to evergreen needle leaf forests with burning rate of over 25 (%). Finally, the results of this study were in good agreement with the Landsat burned products.

Biomass burning is a global phenomenon and systematic burned area mapping is of increasing importance for science and applications. With high spatial resolution and novelty in band design, the recently launched Sentinel-2A satellite provides a new opportunity for moderate spatial resolution burned area mapping. This study examines the performance of the Sentinel-2A Multi Spectral Instrument (MSI) bands and derived spectral indices to differentiate between unburned and burned areas. For this purpose, five pairs of pre-fire and post-fire top of atmosphere (TOA reflectance) and atmospherically corrected (surface reflectance) images were studied. The pixel values of locations that were unburned in the first image and burned in the second image, as well as the values of locations that were unburned in both images which served as a control, were compared and the discrimination of individual bands and spectral indices were evaluated using parametric (transformed divergence) and non-parametric (decision tree) approaches. Based on the results, the most suitable MSI bands to detect burned areas are the 20 m near-infrared, short wave infrared and red-edge bands, while the performance of the spectral indices varied with location. The atmospheric correction only significantly influenced the separability of the visible wavelength bands. The results provide insights that are useful for developing Sentinel-2 burned area mapping algorithms.