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The accelerated growth of the global economy has given rise to a multitude of environmental concerns that demand immediate attention. At this juncture, the total global carbon emissions are exhibiting a gradual increase. China, the United States, India, Russia, and Japan represent the top five countries in terms of global carbon emissions, collectively accounting for approximately 60% of the global total. Of these, China’s carbon emissions are the highest in the world, representing over 30% of the global total. As urbanization accelerates, the carbon emissions from urban agglomerations constitute a substantial share of the nation’s total emissions, rendering the carbon emissions of urban clusters a critical issue. In the context of China’s urban agglomerations, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, due to factors such as industrial structure, accounts for a relatively high proportion of carbon emissions, approximately 11% of the national total. The future trajectory of carbon emissions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region will significantly impact the high-quality development of the entire urban cluster. Consequently, research on carbon emissions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is of vital importance. This paper takes the carbon emissions of the power industry in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region as the research subject, analyzes its carbon emissions status, and builds a multi-regional input–output model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region based on the input–output tables and carbon emissions data of each province. This study explores the key influencing factors of carbon emissions from the power industry in this region from 2012 to 2017 and analyzes the carbon emissions transfer and structural evolution from the perspective of the region and the industry to clarify the carbon reduction responsibilities of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and provide references and recommendations for the formulation of regional collaborative emission reduction policies. The results show that the direct carbon emissions from the power industry in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region account for a higher proportion compared to the indirect carbon emissions it generates by driving other industries. Industries with relatively high indirect carbon emissions in the key path include coal mining and selection, equipment manufacturing, transportation, services, etc. The capital input process from Tianjin and Hebei to Beijing is accompanied by a relatively high carbon transfer. Promoting the widespread adoption of carbon emission reduction technologies will have an effective suppressive effect on carbon emissions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, especially in Hebei; Beijing and Tianjin should pay attention to the stimulating effect of increased final demand on carbon emissions; the transfer of carbon emissions between regions and industries shows a downward trend as the power sector undergoes transformation.

Achieving carbon emission reductions in the residential building sector while maintaining economic growth represents a global challenge, particularly in rapidly developing regions with internal disparities. This study examines Jiangsu Province in eastern China—a economic hub with north-south development gradients—to develop an integrated framework for differentiated carbon reduction pathways. The methodology combines spatial autocorrelation analysis, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition, system dynamics modeling, and Tapio decoupling analysis to examine urban residential building emissions across three regions from 2016–2022. Results reveal significant spatial clustering of emissions (Moran’s I peaking at 0.735), with energy consumption per unit area as the dominant driver across all regions (contributing 147.61%, 131.60%, and 147.51% respectively). Scenario analysis demonstrates that energy efficiency policies can reduce emissions by 10.1% while maintaining 99.2% of economic performance, enabling carbon peak achievement by 2030. However, less developed northern regions emerge as binding constraints, requiring technology investments. Decoupling analysis identifies region-specific optimal pathways: conventional development for advanced regions, balanced approaches for transitional areas, and subsidies for lagging regions. These findings challenge assumptions about environment-economy trade-offs and provide a replicable framework for designing differentiated climate policies in heterogeneous territories, offering insights for similar regions worldwide navigating the transition to sustainable development.

In response to global warming, China has formulated the “double carbon” strategic goals of peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality before 2060. The problem of rural carbon emissions is often ignored due to underdeveloped industries and services. In this paper, the carbon emission pathways in the rural areas of Guangdong Province are investigated. Since energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions, the factor analysis was used to analyze the main factors affecting rural household energy consumption and agricultural production energy consumption. Multiple linear regression was conducted to predict the rural energy consumption demand in Guangdong. Furthermore, the current situation and development trend of rural energy supply, demand and consumption structure, and the potential of renewable energy development were considered to predict carbon emissions in the rural areas of Guangdong. Moreover, the carbon emission pathways in the rural areas of Guangdong were discussed under two scenarios: the base scenario and the radical model.

In order to achieve the ‘dual carbon’ goal, based on the DEMATEL-ISM model, 19 main factors affecting the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings were preliminarily identified from five dimensions, including government decision-making, technical environment, social economy, energy consumption, and market supply and demand. The logical relationship, hierarchical structure, and importance between the factors were clarified, and finally, the four influencing factors were determined. According to the causal feedback relationship between the above four factors in the system flow from 2010 to 2030, eight different control scenarios were proposed, and the impact and change trend of each control scenario on the reduction of carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings were analyzed. The research results show that the key factors for carbon emissions from prefabricated buildings include 14 outcome factors and 5 cause factors, and that the causal factors are key drivers. They are the standard specification system, the incremental cost of prefabricated buildings, investment in scientific and technological innovation, and the level of prefabricated integrated technology. The key factors were structurally stratified from the essential level to the superficial level in four tiers. The first tier of the standard specification system is the surface causal factor affecting carbon emissions from prefabricated buildings. Investment in scientific and technological innovation in the second and third tiers, and the level of prefabricated integrated technology are the causes of the transition. The incremental cost of prefabricated buildings at the fourth level is the essential causal factor. Finally, based on the data related to carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings in Yunnan, China, and verified in eight regulatory scenarios, the results of the study can effectively reveal the carbon emission reduction transmission path of prefabricated buildings, which can provide a reference for the development of prefabricated buildings and carbon emission reduction strategies.

The Chinese government has made a strategic decision to reach ‘carbon neutrality’ before 2060. China’s terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink is currently offsetting 7–15% of national anthropogenic emissions and has received widespread attention regarding its role in the ‘carbon neutrality’ strategy. We provide perspectives on this question by inferring from the fundamental principles of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycles. We first elucidate the basic ecological theory that, over the long-term succession of ecosystem without regenerative disturbances, the carbon sink of a given ecosystem will inevitably approach zero as the ecosystem reaches its equilibrium state or climax. In this sense, we argue that the currently observed global terrestrial carbon sink largely emerges from the processes of carbon uptake and release of ecosystem responding to environmental changes and, as such, the carbon sink is never an intrinsic ecosystem function. We further elaborate on the long-term effects of atmospheric CO 2 changes and afforestation on China’s terrestrial carbon sink: the enhancement of the terrestrial carbon sink by the CO 2 fertilization effect will diminish as the growth of the atmospheric CO 2 slows down, or completely stops, depending on international efforts to combat climate change, and carbon sinks induced by ecological engineering, such as afforestation, will also decline as forest ecosystems become mature and reach their late-successional stage. We conclude that terrestrial ecosystems have nonetheless an important role to play to gain time for industrial emission reduction during the implementation of the ‘carbon neutrality’ strategy. In addition, science-based ecological engineering measures including afforestation and forest management could be used to elongate the time of ecosystem carbon sink service. We propose that the terrestrial carbon sink pathway should be optimized, by addressing the questions of ‘when’ and ‘where’ to plan afforestation projects, in order to effectively strengthen the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink and maximize its contribution to the realization of the ‘carbon neutrality’ strategy.

Significance Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our times. Human activities, like fossil-fuel burning, result in emissions of radiation-modifying substances that have a detectable, either warming or cooling, influence on our climate. Some, like soot (black carbon), are very short lived, whereas others, like carbon dioxide (CO ₂), are very persistent and remain in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia. Importantly, these substances are often emitted by common sources. As climate policy is looking at options to limit emissions of all these substances, understanding their linkages becomes extremely important. Our study disentangles these linkages and therewith helps to avoid crucial misconceptions: Measures reducing short-lived climate forcers are complementary to CO ₂ mitigation, but neglecting linkages leads to overestimating their climate benefits. Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO ₂. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO ₂–SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO ₂–SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO ₂ mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO ₂–SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO ₂ mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO ₂ mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change.

The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750–2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005–2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ‘best-estimate’ global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO 2 emissions), leading to CO 2 concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21 st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.

Climate change has emerged as one of the most important environmental issues worldwide. As the world’s biggest developing country, China is participating in combating climate change by promoting a low carbon economy within the context of global warming. This paper summarizes the pathways of China’s low carbon economy including the aspects of energy, industry, low carbon cities, circular economy and low carbon technology, afforestation and carbon sink, the carbon emission trading market and carbon emission reduction targets. There are many achievements in the implementation of low carbon policies. For example, carbon emission intensity has been reduced drastically along with the optimizing of energy and industry structure and a nationwide carbon trading market for electricity industry has been established. However, some problems remain, such as the weakness of public participation, the ineffectiveness of unified policies for certain regions and the absence of long-term planning for low carbon cities development. Therefore, we propose some policy recommendations for the future low carbon economy development in China. Firstly, comprehensive and long-term planning should be involved in all the low carbon economy pathways. Secondly, to coordinate the relationship between central and local governments and narrow the gap between poor and rich regions, different strategies of carbon emission performance assessment should be applied for different regions. Thirdly, enterprises should cooperate with scientific research institutions to explored low carbon technologies. Finally, relevant institutions should be regulated to realize comprehensive low carbon transition through reasonable and feasible low carbon pathways in China. These policy recommendations will provide new perspectives for China’s future low carbon economy development and guide practices for combating climate change.

International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and-unlike the IAMs themselves-we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.