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Most studies of the political economy of money focus on the laws protecting central banks from government interference; this book turns to the overlooked people who actually make monetary policy decisions. Using formal theory and statistical evidence from dozens of central banks across the developed and developing worlds, this book shows that monetary policy agents are not all the same. Molded by specific professional and sectoral backgrounds and driven by career concerns, central bankers with different career trajectories choose predictably different monetary policies. These differences undermine the widespread belief that central bank independence is a neutral solution for macroeconomic management. Instead, through careful selection and retention of central bankers, partisan governments can and do influence monetary policy - preserving a political trade-off between inflation and real economic performance even in an age of legally independent central banks.

Priests of Prosperityexplores the unsung revolutionary campaign to transform postcommunist central banks from command-economy cash cows into Western-style monetary guardians. Juliet Johnson conducted more than 160 interviews in seventeen countries with central bankers, international assistance providers, policymakers, and private-sector finance professionals over the course of fifteen years. She argues that a powerful transnational central banking community concentrated in Western Europe and North America integrated postcommunist central bankers into its network, shaped their ideas about the role of central banks, and helped them develop modern tools of central banking. Johnson's detailed comparative studies of central bank development in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan take readers from the birth of the campaign in the late 1980s to the challenges faced by central bankers after the global financial crisis. As the comfortable certainties of the past collapse around them, today's central bankers in the postcommunist world and beyond find themselves torn between allegiance to their transnational community and its principles on the one hand and their increasingly complex and politicized national roles on the other.Priests of Prosperitywill appeal to a diverse audience of scholars in political science, finance, economics, geography, and sociology as well as to central bankers and other policymakers interested in the future of international finance, global governance, and economic development.

We show that negative policy rates affect the supply of bank credit in a novel way. Banks are reluctant to pass on negative rates to depositors, which increases the funding cost of highdeposit banks, and reduces their net worth, relative to low-deposit banks. As a consequence, the introduction of negative policy rates by the European Central Bank in mid-2014 leads to more risk-taking and less lending by euro-area banks with a greater reliance on deposit funding. Our results suggest that negative rates are less accommodative and could pose a risk to financial stability, if lending is done by high-deposit banks.

Launched in Summer 2012, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program indirectly recapitalized European banks through its positive impact on periphery sovereign bonds. However, the stability reestablished in the banking sector did not fully translate into economic growth. We document zombie lending by banks that remained weakly capitalized even post-OMT. In turn, firms receiving loans used these funds not to undertake real economic activity, such as employment and investment, but to build cash reserves. Creditworthy firms in industries with a high zombie firm prevalence significantly suffered from this credit misallocation, which further slowed the economic recovery.

How does transparency, a key feature of central bank design, affect monetary policy makers’ deliberations? Theory predicts a positive discipline effect and negative conformity effect. We empirically explore these effects using a natural experiment in the Federal Open Market Committee in 1993 and computational linguistics algorithms. We first find large changes in communication patterns after transparency. We then propose a difference-in-differences approach inspired by the career concerns literature, and find evidence for both effects. Finally, we construct an influence measure that suggests the discipline effect dominates.

This book provides a uniquely comprehensive and detailed analysis of central banks within the G-20. It discusses their policies and functions in detail. Central banks use monetary policy to manage economic fluctuations and achieve price stability. Monetary policy is the control of the quantity of money available in an economy and the channels by which new money is supplied. Monetary policy is implemented either (i) through interest rate policy, whereby the central bank influences financial conditions by setting, or closely controlling, a short-term rate and by steering expectations about the interest rate forward, or (ii) through balance sheet policy, whereby the central bank influences financial conditions beyond the short-term rate by adjusting its balance sheet. Inflation targeting has emerged as the leading framework for monetary policy. Since the 1990s, the role of the interest rate has increased, and many countries are using inflation targeting to achieve the aims of their monetary policy. Central banks around the globe, and within the G-20, have introduced explicit inflation targets. Though a central bank cannot directly control inflation, or the factors that determine inflation, it does have the tools needed to directly affect a group of nominal variables, that in turn have an impact on the determinants of inflation. Moreover, most major central banks have adopted unconventional monetary policies to stabilize financial conditions, boost economic activity, and maintain price stability. Last but not least, financial and monetary policies have become increasingly international, involving trade-offs between domestic and foreign interests. The response to cross-border financial crises requires the close cooperation of multiple jurisdictions. The book is a key reference text for researchers, teachers and students in banking, economic policy, and government worldwide.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to gain some insight into central bank digital currency research by reviewing the recent advances in central bank digital currency (CBDC) research in a way that would help researchers, policy makers and practitioners to take a closer look at CBDC.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a systematic literature review methodology.FindingsThe review shows a general consensus that a CBDC is a liability of the central bank and it has cash-like attributes. The review also presents the motivation and benefits of issuing a CBDC such as the need to increase financial inclusion, the need to improve the conduct of monetary policy and to foster efficient digital payments. The review also shows that many central banks are researching the potential to issue CBDCs due to its many benefits. However, a number of studies have called for caution against over-optimism about the potential benefits of CBDC due to the limiting nature of CBDC design and its inability to meet multiple competing goals. Suggested areas for future research are identified such as the need to find the optimal CBDC design that meets all competing objectives, the need for empirical evidence on the effect of CBDC on the cost of credit and financial stability, and the need to find a balance between limiting the CBDC holdings of users and allowing users to hold as much CBDC as they want, and there is a need to undertake country-specific and regional case studies of CBDC design.Originality/valueThis review paper offers new areas for further research in central bank digital currencies.

This article assesses the impact of Quantitative Easing and other unconventional monetary policies followed by central banks in the wake of the financial crisis that began in 2007. We consider the implications of theoretical models for the effectiveness of asset purchases and look at the evidence from a range of empirical studies. We also provide an overview of the contributions of the other articles in this Feature.

In this study, we examined the influence of users’ experiences with the unified payments interface (UPI) system on the usage behavior of central bank digital currency (CBDC) in India. Our research developed a novel conceptual framework that investigated the relationships between technology, cognitive factors, and behavioral intentions towards CBDC use. The framework integrated UPI usage experience as a moderator within existing models of behavioral intentions and use behaviors. We collected data through a survey conducted in major Indian cities during the pilot launch of CBDC. By utilizing a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM), we analyzed the proposed model and the relationships between the constructs. Our findings revealed the significant impact of hedonic motivation and performance expectancy on users’ behavioral intentions towards CBDC. Social influence also played a significant role in CBDC usage. Furthermore, we identified that prior UPI usage negatively moderated the relationship between performance expectancy and behavioral intention, as well as the relationship between social influence and use behavior. However, prior UPI usage did not significantly moderate the relationships between perceived risk, hedonic motivation, behavioral intention, and use behavior. These findings contribute to our understanding of the factors influencing CBDC adoption and usage behavior in India.

The recent surge in inflation has led to an increase in research by academic economists into various aspects of central banking: in particular, central bank communication and trust in central banks. In addition, the move towards introducing Central Bank Digital Currency has increased the need for research in this area. This Special Issue of the National Institute Economic Review brings together some of this recent research and includes contributions from academic and policy-oriented researchers and leading experts on these recent developments in central banking research.