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3,378 result(s) for "changement du climat"
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Generation dread : finding purpose in an age of eco-anxiety
\"An impassioned generational perspective on how to stay sane amid climate disruption. Climate and environment-related fears and anxieties are on the rise everywhere. As with any type of stress, eco-anxiety can lead to lead to burnout, avoidance, or a disturbance of daily functioning. In Generation Dread, Britt Wray seamlessly merges scientific knowledge with emotional insight to show how these intense feelings are a healthy response to the troubled state of the world. The first crucial step toward becoming an engaged steward of the planet is connecting with our climate emotions, seeing them as a sign of humanity, and learning how to live with them. We have to face and value eco-anxiety, Wray argues, before we can conquer the deeply ingrained, widespread reactions of denial and disavowal that have led humanity to this alarming period of ecological decline. It's not a level playing field when it comes to our vulnerability to the climate crisis, she notes, but as the situation worsens, we are all on the field--and unlocking deep stores of compassion and care is more important than ever. Weaving in insights from climate-aware therapists, critical perspectives on race and privilege in this crisis, ideas about the future of mental health innovation, and creative coping strategies, Generation Dread brilliantly illuminates how we can learn from the past, from our own emotions, and from each other to survive--and even thrive--in a changing world.\"-- Provided by publisher.
The role of international drivers on UK scenarios of a low-carbon society
An integrated set of low-carbon society (LCS) scenarios for the UK were analysed using the UK MARKAL Macro (M-M) model. A $100/tCO 2 carbon price scenario was compared with long-term LCS scenarios with a domestic 80% CO 2 reduction target. As M-M is a national-level model, a set of five international drivers were investigated, and grouped under Annex I consensus and Global consensus assumption sets. For economy-wide results the inclusion of international aviation and potential large-scale purchases of CO 2 permits (when available) are most important. For sectoral implications, all international drivers considered here are important; for example in divergent overall size and configuration of the UK electricity sector. The carbon price scenario and set of 80% LCS targets scenarios give GDP losses rising from 0.36% to a range of 1.64-2.21% in 2050. This steep cost convexity in deep CO 2 reductions represents increasing efforts to decarbonize the UK energy system, and the further impact of key international drivers. This illustrative analysis demonstrates that UK policy makers should be cognisant of, and flexible with respect to, international strategies on LCS and emission reduction targets.
Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá
Recognizing the threat from climate change that is facing and will face agroecosystems is the first step in determining adaptation to climate change. One way is through Global Climate Models (GCMs), but their spatial resolution is not best suited for making decisions locally, further reducing scale, seen as a way to resolve the resolution problem, has not yielded the expected results. This study puts forth an exercise in which we study the climatic time series of precipitation and temperature to determine if there are effects of climate change on one of the most important national agricultural areas, using the Mann-Kendall analysis to determine the existence of statistically significant trends, i.e. signs of change in the variables analyzed. It was found that the variable that presents the most significant trends is the average maximum temperature, while precipitation and average minimum temperature do not. Key words: mathematical models, climate observations, temperature, mountain farming. Reconocer la amenaza climática a la que se enfrentan y se enfrentaran los agroecosistemas es el primer paso para determinar las medidas de adaptación frente al cambio climático. Una forma de hacerlo es a través de los Modelos Climáticos Globales (MCG), sin embargo la resolución espacial de éstos no es la más indicada para tomar decisiones a escala local; además, la reducción de escala, vista como una forma de mejorar el problema de resolución, no ha dado los resultados esperados. Se plantea un ejercicio en el que se estudian las series de tiempo climáticas de precipitación y temperatura para determinar si hay efectos del cambio climático en una de las zonas agropecuarias de mayor importancia a nivel nacional. Se plantea el análisis de Mann-Kendall para determinar la existencia de tendencias estadísticamente significativas, es decir señales de cambio en las variables analizadas. Se encontró que la variable que presenta tendencias más significativas es la temperatura máxima media, mientras que la precipitación y la temperatura mínima media no. Palabras clave: modelos matemáticos, observaciones del clima, temperatura, agricultura de montaña.
A global perspective to achieve a low-carbon society (LCS): scenario analysis with the ETSAP-TIAM model
Global warming caused by an increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) from human activities is threatening the natural and human environment by extinction of species, sea-level rise, and change in the availability of water or increased frequency of extreme weather events. Within the UK-Japan Low Carbon Society (LCS) project, the global, technology-rich ETSAP-TIAM model has been applied to analyse, by means of a scenario analysis, strategies to realize deep GHG emission reductions on a global level. The scenario analysis shows that, without any explicit abatement efforts, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are estimated to double by the middle of this century compared with the year 2000. With CO 2 abatement measures being equivalent to a CO 2 price of up to $100/t in 2050, CO 2 emissions can be reduced by 23% relative to levels in 2000. Further efforts to halve CO 2 emissions in 2050 relative to 2000 levels can be achieved in a future energy system characterized (besides efficiency improvements and increased use of renewables, especially biomass) by an almost entirely decarbonized power generation sector (through carbon capture and storage power plants, renewable technologies and nuclear power), which provides electricity as the major final energy carrier to the end-use sectors. Since the majority of the emission reductions occur in the present developing countries, cooperation between developed and developing countries in the implementation of these measures is indispensable in order to realize these ambitious reduction targets.
Deforestation, biomass and carbon finance in Amazonia
Biomass dynamics in Amazonia are quantified and the value that carbon finance could deliver from slowing deforestation is assessed. Above-ground forest biomass in the Legal Amazon shrank from 90 Pg to 76 Pg between 1978 and 2004. An average decrease of 0.64 Pg (standard error 0.38 Pg) per year was estimated for primary and econdary vegetation. For an improved, spatially and temporally explicit estimation, a time series of remote-sensing results and a model of secondary forest area and age distribution was combined with a large-scale forest-growth model. The observed trend of biomass decline is continuous and defines a baseline that the avoidance of deforestation could be measured against. Based on scenario calculations, the emission reductions from slightly reduced deforestation rates could be valued in the range of €1 billion annually. Carbon finance for reducing emissions from deforestation ('avoided deforestation'), which is being discussed as an additional mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, has the potential to alter the economic logic driving forest conversion.
Analyse des tendances séculaires de l'évolution de la pluviosité dans les zones steppiques de l'Algérie
Description du sujet. L'Afrique du Nord, notamment l'Algérie, représente l’une des régions les plus défavorisées en termes de ressources hydriques. Dans le contexte du réchauffement climatique, il est important de comprendre et de situer l'évolution séculaire de la pluviométrie dans les régions steppiques arides en raison des répercussions potentielles sur le bilan hydrique. Objectifs. Cette étude vise à répondre aux trois objectifs de travail suivants : évaluer la fiabilité des données climatiques du Climate Research Unit (CRU, Université d’East Anglia) en les comparant avec celles de l'Office National de la Météorologie (ONM, Algérie), vérifier la présence d'une tendance à l'assèchement dans les régions steppiques ainsi que l'existence d'un gradient d'assèchement en fonction de la longitude. Méthode. Cette étude examine des séries statistiques maillées du CRU portées à une résolution spatiale de 0,5º x 0,5º (50 km x 50 km) remontant au début du vingtième siècle. Elles sont agrégées au niveau d'entités administratives, les wilayas, comprenant cinq stations dans la région occidentale, quatre stations dans la région Centre-Est ainsi que quatre stations distinctes dans la région orientale. Les données s'étendent de 1901 à 2021 et concernent 13 entités administratives provenant de l’ONM et du CRU. Les tendances ont été étudiées par les tests de Mann Kendall affinés par la méthode de Sen et le coefficient de corrélation paramétrique. Les ruptures d’homogénéité ont également été examinées.Résultats. La plupart des stations algériennes du Centre et de l'Est ne montrent aucune tendance à l'assèchement à long terme. En revanche, une telle tendance est nettement observable dans la région occidentale et augmente au fil du temps selon un gradient longitudinal de l'est vers l'ouest, ce qui corrobore les résultats rapportés dans des études antérieures. Enfin, certaines stations, qui correspondent à des entités administratives, révèlent des ruptures d’homogénéité différenciées. Conclusions. Les tendances de la pluviométrie sur le long terme montrent des dynamiques différentes d’une région à l’autre soulignant la nécessité d'une gestion efficace des ressources hydriques. Analysis of secular trends in rainfall evolution in the steppe zones of AlgeriaDescription of the subject. North Africa, particularly Algeria, is one of the most disadvantaged regions in terms of water resources. In the context of climate change, it is crucial to understand and contextualize the long-term evolution of rainfall in arid steppe regions due to the potential repercussions on the water balance.Objectives. This study aims to address the following three objectives: assess the reliability of climate data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU, University of East Anglia) by comparing them with data from the Algerian National Meteorological Office (ONM); investigate the presence of a drying trend in the steppe regions as well as determine whether a longitudinal gradient of increasing aridity exists, as suggested by previous studies.Method. This study analyzes gridded statistical series from the CRU, with a spatial resolution of 0.5º x 0.5º (50 km x 50 km), dating back to the early 20th century. The data are aggregated at the level of administrative entities (wilayas), including five stations in the western region, four in the Central-East, and four distinct stations in the eastern region. The datasets span from 1901 to 2021 and are sourced from both the ONM and the CRU. Trends were examined using the Mann-Kendall test refined by Sen’s slope estimator, as well as the parametric correlation coefficient. Breaks in homogeneity were also analyzed.Results. Most stations in Central and Eastern Algeria do not show any significant long-term drying trends. In contrast, such a trend is clearly observable in the western region and becomes more pronounced over time, following a longitudinal gradient from east to west. This confirms findings reported in previous studies. Additionally, some stations, corresponding to specific administrative entities, exhibit differentiated breaks in data homogeneity.Conclusions. Long-term rainfall trends reveal differentiated dynamics across regions, highlighting the need for effective water resource management.
Stocks de carbone des agroforêts de cacaoyers et de caféiers dans les savanes humides du Cameroun
Description du sujet. Les agroforêts à base de cacaoyers et de caféiers occupent une place importante dans le paysage agricole des savanes humides mais leur rôle face aux changements climatiques demeure peu reconnu. Pourtant, le programme REDD+ (Réduction des Émissions dues à la Déforestation et à la Dégradation des forêts) reconnaît le rôle important de l'agroforesterie.
Paradigmes et scénarios de transition des systèmes alimentaires pour la neutralité carbone
L’agriculture et l’alimentation doivent relever de nombreux défis environnementaux et sanitaires. Le développement de scénarios prospectifs est une approche pour concevoir et évaluer des stratégies y répondant. Nous comparons ici sept scénarios ayant en commun l’objectif de neutralité carbone en 2050. Ces scénarios diffèrent cependant pour l’utilisation des terres, les pratiques agricoles et les régimes alimentaires. Nous montrons qu’ils mobilisent différemment les services écosystémiques, l’économie circulaire, la sobriété et les technologies. Les enjeux de santé humaine et de biodiversité ne sont pas toujours considérés explicitement. Notre analyse permet de distinguer les scénarios basés sur des changements sociétaux, tels que la baisse de la consommation de produits animaux, de ceux misant plutôt sur des paris technologiques. Agriculture and food face many environmental and health challenges. The development of prospective scenarios is an approach to designing and evaluating strategies to meet these challenges. Here, we compare seven scenarios that share the common goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. However, these scenarios differ in terms of land use, agricultural practices and diets. We show that they mobilize ecosystem services, circular economy, sobriety, and technologies in different ways. Human health and biodiversity issues are not always explicitly considered. Our analysis allows us to distinguish scenarios based on societal changes, such as a decrease in meat consumption, from those relying more on technological bets.
La climatologie est morte!; vive la climatologie!; reflexiones sobre el cambio climático
Este trabajo expone la necesidad de una definición de clima aceptada por la comunidad científica como paso previo a la noción de cambio climático. Se exponen y comentan distintos conceptos de clima, desde los orígenes griegos de la palabra, en los que se destaca la variabilidad natural, que debiera extenderse igualmente al cambio climático. Dicha variabilidad no está delimitada, por lo que arrastra su indefinición al cambio climático. [fr] Ce travail veut poser l'accent sur la nécessité d'une définition acceptée par la communauté des scientifiques du climat, qui peut être basée sur le concept du climat. On a résumé des différentes définitions, qui commencent avec les grèques classiques, où le climat a une haute variabilité naturelle qu'on doit trouver aussi dans le concept derivé du changement climatique. Si la variabilité naturelle du climat n'est pas clarifiée, le changement du climat le sera moins.