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Climate shifts over this century are widely expected to alter the structure and functioning of temperate plant communities. However, long-term climate experiments in natural vegetation are rare and largely confined to systems with the capacity for rapid compositional change. In unproductive, grazed grassland at Buxton in northern England (U.K.), one of the longest running experimental manipulations of temperature and rainfall reveals vegetation highly resistant to climate shifts maintained over 13 yr. Here we document this resistance in the form of: (i) constancy in the relative abundance of growth forms and maintained dominance by long-lived, slow-growing grasses, sedges, and small forbs; (ii) immediate but minor shifts in the abundance of several species that have remained stable over the course of the experiment; (iii) no change in productivity in response to climate treatments with the exception of reduction from chronic summer drought; and (iv) only minor species losses in response to drought and winter heating. Overall, compositional changes induced by 13-yr exposure to climate regime change were less than short-term fluctuations in species abundances driven by interannual climate fluctuations. The lack of progressive compositional change, coupled with the long-term historical persistence of unproductive grasslands in northern England, suggests the community at Buxton possesses a stabilizing capacity that leads to long-term persistence of dominant species. Unproductive ecosystems provide a refuge for many threatened plants and animals and perform a diversity of ecosystem services. Our results support the view that changing land use and overexploitation rather than climate change per se constitute the primary threats to these fragile ecosystems.

Summary Plant–plant interactions may critically modify the impact of climate change on plant communities. However, the magnitude and even direction of potential future interactions remains highly debated, especially for water‐limited ecosystems. Predictions range from increasing facilitation to increasing competition with future aridification. The different methodologies used for assessing plant–plant interactions under changing environmental conditions may affect the outcome but they are not equally represented in the literature. Mechanistic experimental manipulations are rare compared with correlative approaches that infer future patterns from current observations along spatial climatic gradients. Here, we utilize a unique climatic gradient in combination with a large‐scale, long‐term experiment to test whether predictions about plant–plant interactions yield similar results when using experimental manipulations, spatial gradients or temporal variation. We assessed shrub–annual interactions in three different sites along a natural rainfall gradient (spatial) during 9 years of varying rainfall (temporal) and 8 years of dry and wet manipulations of ambient rainfall (experimental) that closely mimicked regional climate scenarios. The results were fundamentally different among all three approaches. Experimental water manipulations hardly altered shrub effects on annual plant communities for the assessed fitness parameters biomass and survival. Along the spatial gradient, shrub effects shifted from clearly negative to mildly facilitative towards drier sites, whereas temporal variation showed the opposite trend: more negative shrub effects in drier years. Based on our experimental approach, we conclude that shrub–annual interaction will remain similar under climate change. In contrast, the commonly applied space‐for‐time approach based on spatial gradients would have suggested increasing facilitative effects with climate change. We discuss potential mechanisms governing the differences among the three approaches. Our study highlights the critical importance of long‐term experimental manipulations for evaluating climate change impacts. Correlative approaches, for example along spatial or temporal gradients, may be misleading and overestimate the response of plant–plant interactions to climate change. Lay Summary

With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals’ persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.

High-elevation ecosystems will experience increasing periods of above-average warmth and altered precipitation changes because of climate change. This causes uncertainties for community properties such as productivity and biodiversity. Increasing temperature may increase productivity by increasing growing season length and metabolic rate or decrease productivity by causing drought stress. Competitive outcomes between species may change with altered climatic conditions, causing shifts in community composition. This study investigates the resistance of aboveground biomass and plant community composition of montane and alpine grassland ecosystems to abruptly altered temperature and precipitation conditions. Intact plant-soil communities were translocated downslope spanning an elevational gradient of 2,090 m in the European Alps. We hypothesize that increasing temperature leads to (1) increased aboveground biomass in the absence of precipitation deficits, (2) decreased species richness, and (3) shifts in plant community composition. After one year of exposure to their new environment, aboveground biomass changes appeared to be dependent on precipitation regimes, whereas species richness declined consistently with changed climatic conditions. No deterministic shift in community composition was found. Abrupt changes in climatic conditions can lead to rapid responses of community properties, indicating that these high-elevation communities may have low initial resistance to future heat waves and droughts.

Peatlands are ecosystems for which carbon budget relies strongly on the meteorological and hydrological conditions. Here, using a manipulative field experiment, we measured ecosystem respiration (R ECO ) over two years (2013–2014) in a poor fen in Poland to estimate the carbon emission in a changing climate. The experiment consisted of warming (open-top chambers - OTC) and water table manipulation. The application of OTC increased the mean values of daily maximum air temperature by approx. 1.1–1.8 °C. Warming or the increased water table depth separately resulted in an increase in ecosystem respiration by approx. 0.1 μmol CO 2 m −2  s −1 and 0.3 μmol CO 2 m −2  s −1 , respectively. However, our results show also the additive nature of warming and water table drawdown impact on daily R ECO during the studied years (2013–0.80 μmol CO 2 m −2  s −1 and 2014–1.16 μmol CO 2 m −2  s −1 ). With the natural dry period event which occurred in 2014, the seasonal R ECO increased by approx. 0.2 μmol CO 2 m −2  s −1 as compared to the previous year. Projected global warming will therefore significantly enhance C loss from poor fens in this region of Europe.

Aim How climate change will alter plant functional group composition is a critical question given the well‐recognized effects of plant functional groups on ecosystem services. While climate can have direct effects on different functional groups, indirect effects mediated through changes in biotic interactions have the potential to amplify or counteract direct climatic effects. As a result, identifying the underlying causes for climate effects on plant communities is important to conservation and restoration initiatives. Location Western Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington), USA. Methods Utilizing a 3‐year experiment in three prairie sites across a 520‐km latitudinal climate gradient, we manipulated temperature and precipitation and recorded plant cover at the peak of each growing season. We used structural equation models to examine how abiotic drivers (i.e. temperature, moisture and soil nitrogen) controlled functional group cover, and how these groups in turn determined overall plant diversity. Results Warming increased the cover of introduced annual species, causing subsequent declines in other functional groups and diversity. While we found direct effects of temperature and moisture on extant vegetation (i.e. native annuals, native perennials and introduced perennials), these effects were typically amplified by introduced annuals. Competition for moisture and light or space, rather than nitrogen, were critical mechanisms of community change in this seasonally water‐limited Mediterranean‐climate system. Diversity declines were driven by reductions in native annual cover and increasing dominance by introduced annuals. Main conclusions A shift towards increasing introduced annual dominance in this system may be akin to that previously experienced in California grasslands, resulting in the “Californication” of Pacific Northwest prairies. Such a phenomenon may challenge local land managers in their efforts to maintain species‐rich and functionally diverse prairie ecosystems in the future.

Abstract With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer‐than‐ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha , a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals’ persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.

Plant phenology will likely shift with climate change, but how temperature and/or moisture regimes will control phenological responses is not well understood. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climate ecosystems where the warmest temperatures and greatest moisture availability are seasonally asynchronous. We examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels to four climate treatments (control, warming, drought, and warming plus additional precipitation) embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient within the Pacific Northwest, USA. At the population level, we monitored flowering and abundances in spring 2017 of eight range‐restricted focal species planted both within and north of their current ranges. At the community level, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured from fall 2016 to summer 2018 to estimate peak live biomass, senescence, seasonal patterns, and growing season length. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than our moisture manipulations on phenology at both the population and community levels. Warming advanced flowering regardless of whether a species was within or beyond its current range. Importantly, many of our focal species had low abundances, particularly in the south, suggesting that establishment, in addition to phenological shifts, may be a strong constraint on their future viability. At the community level, warming advanced the date of peak biomass regardless of site or year. The date of senescence advanced regardless of year for the southern and central sites but only in 2018 for the northern site. Growing season length contracted due to warming at the southern and central sites (~3 weeks) but was unaffected at the northern site. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may exert strong influence on the timing of a variety of plant phenological events, especially those events that occur when temperature is most limiting, even in seasonally water‐limited Mediterranean ecosystems. We conducted a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA, and examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than moisture and considerably advanced the timing of several phenological events. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may heavily influence plant phenology, even in seasonally water‐limited Mediterranean ecosystems.

• Climate manipulation experiments are of key importance in identifying possible responses of plant communities and ecosystems to climate change. Experiments for warming the air under sunlit conditions are carried out in (partial) enclosures. These inevitably alter the energy balance inside, potentially altering tissue temperatures which affect metabolism and growth. • Using an empirically validated energy balance model, we investigate effects of two widely used warming methods, climate‐controlled glasshouses and passively warmed open‐top chambers (OTCs), on leaf temperatures. The model applies standard energy balance formulas, supplemented with data on optical properties of glasshouse materials and wind conditions inside OTCs. • Results show that the different radiation environment inside glasshouses did not produce large leaf temperature deviations compared with outside. Poor glasshouse design with significant radiation blockage by the structure or with insufficient ventilation did affect tissue temperatures more significantly. The drastic wind speed reduction inside OTCs approximately doubled the actual (canopy) warming compared with earlier reported increases in air temperature provided by this technique – an effect that was inflated if the plants’ stomates closed. • These results demonstrate that leaf temperatures were higher than previously considered in OTCs but not in climate‐controlled glasshouses.

The semiarid, northern Mongolian steppe, which still supports pastoral nomads who have used the steppe for millennia, has experienced an average 1.7°C temperature rise over the past 40 years. Continuing climate change is likely to affect flowering phenology and flower numbers with potentially important consequences for plant community composition, ecosystem services, and herder livelihoods. Over the growing seasons of 2009 and 2010, we examined flowering responses to climate manipulation using open-top passive warming chambers (OTCs) at two locations on a south-facing slope: one on the moister, cooler lower slope and the other on the drier, warmer upper slope, where a watering treatment was added in a factorial design with warming. Canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) revealed that OTCs reduced flower production and delayed peak flowering in graminoids as a whole but only affected forbs on the upper slope, where peak flowering was also delayed. OTCs affected flowering phenology in seven of eight species, which were examined individually, either by altering the time of peak flowering and/or the onset and/or cessation of flowering, as revealed by survival analysis. In 2010, which was the drier year, OTCs reduced flower production in two grasses but increased production in an annual forb found only on the upper slope. The particular effects of OTCs on phenology, and whether they caused an extension or contraction of the flowering season, differed among species, and often depended on year, or slope, or watering treatment; however, a relatively strong pattern emerged for 2010 when four species showed a contraction of the flowering season in OTCs. Watering increased flower production in two species in 2010, but slope location more often affected flowering phenology than did watering. Our results show the importance of taking landscape-scale variation into account in climate change studies and also contrasted with those of several studies set in cold, but wetter systems, where warming often causes greater or accelerated flower production. In cold, water-limited systems like the Mongolian steppe, warming may reduce flower numbers or the length of the flowering season by adding to water stress more than it relieves cold stress.