Explore the vast range of titles available.

Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2–7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0]), and household air pollution from solid fuels (4·3% [3·4–5·3]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8–9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 6·8% [5·5–8·0]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4–6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, Andean Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, most of Latin America, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Young people aged 10–24 years represent 27% of the world's population. Although important health problems and risk factors for disease in later life emerge in these years, the contribution to the global burden of disease is unknown. We describe the global burden of disease arising in young people and the contribution of risk factors to that burden. We used data from WHO's 2004 Global Burden of Disease study. Cause-specific disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for young people aged 10–24 years were estimated by WHO region on the basis of available data for incidence, prevalence, severity, and mortality. WHO member states were classified into low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries, and into WHO regions. We estimated DALYs attributable to specific global health risk factors using the comparative risk assessment method. DALYs were divided into years of life lost because of premature mortality (YLLs) and years lost because of disability (YLDs), and are presented for regions by sex and by 5-year age groups. The total number of incident DALYs in those aged 10–24 years was about 236 million, representing 15·5% of total DALYs for all age groups. Africa had the highest rate of DALYs for this age group, which was 2·5 times greater than in high-income countries (208 vs 82 DALYs per 1000 population). Across regions, DALY rates were 12% higher in girls than in boys between 15 and 19 years (137 vs 153). Worldwide, the three main causes of YLDs for 10–24-year-olds were neuropsychiatric disorders (45%), unintentional injuries (12%), and infectious and parasitic diseases (10%). The main risk factors for incident DALYs in 10–24-year-olds were alcohol (7% of DALYs), unsafe sex (4%), iron deficiency (3%), lack of contraception (2%), and illicit drug use (2%). The health of young people has been largely neglected in global public health because this age group is perceived as healthy. However, opportunities for prevention of disease and injury in this age group are not fully exploited. The findings from this study suggest that adolescent health would benefit from increased public health attention. None.

Exposure to second-hand smoke is common in many countries but the magnitude of the problem worldwide is poorly described. We aimed to estimate the worldwide exposure to second-hand smoke and its burden of disease in children and adult non-smokers in 2004. The burden of disease from second-hand smoke was estimated as deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for children and adult non-smokers. The calculations were based on disease-specific relative risk estimates and area-specific estimates of the proportion of people exposed to second-hand smoke, by comparative risk assessment methods, with data from 192 countries during 2004. Worldwide, 40% of children, 33% of male non-smokers, and 35% of female non-smokers were exposed to second-hand smoke in 2004. This exposure was estimated to have caused 379 000 deaths from ischaemic heart disease, 165 000 from lower respiratory infections, 36 900 from asthma, and 21 400 from lung cancer. 603 000 deaths were attributable to second-hand smoke in 2004, which was about 1·0% of worldwide mortality. 47% of deaths from second-hand smoke occurred in women, 28% in children, and 26% in men. DALYs lost because of exposure to second-hand smoke amounted to 10·9 million, which was about 0·7% of total worldwide burden of diseases in DALYs in 2004. 61% of DALYs were in children. The largest disease burdens were from lower respiratory infections in children younger than 5 years (5 939 000), ischaemic heart disease in adults (2 836 000), and asthma in adults (1 246 000) and children (651 000). These estimates of worldwide burden of disease attributable to second-hand smoke suggest that substantial health gains could be made by extending effective public health and clinical interventions to reduce passive smoking worldwide. Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure–the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index–on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0–42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2–55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Acute myocardial infarction is triggered by various factors, such as physical exertion, stressful events, heavy meals, or increases in air pollution. However, the importance and relevance of each trigger are uncertain. We compared triggers of myocardial infarction at an individual and population level. We searched PubMed and the Web of Science citation databases to identify studies of triggers of non-fatal myocardial infarction to calculate population attributable fractions (PAF). When feasible, we did a meta-regression analysis for studies of the same trigger. Of the epidemiologic studies reviewed, 36 provided sufficient details to be considered. In the studied populations, the exposure prevalence for triggers in the relevant control time window ranged from 0·04% for cocaine use to 100% for air pollution. The reported odds ratios (OR) ranged from 1·05 to 23·7. Ranking triggers from the highest to the lowest OR resulted in the following order: use of cocaine, heavy meal, smoking of marijuana, negative emotions, physical exertion, positive emotions, anger, sexual activity, traffic exposure, respiratory infections, coffee consumption, air pollution (based on a difference of 30 μg/m 3 in particulate matter with a diameter <10 μm [PM 10]). Taking into account the OR and the prevalences of exposure, the highest PAF was estimated for traffic exposure (7·4%), followed by physical exertion (6·2%), alcohol (5·0%), coffee (5·0%), a difference of 30 μg/m 3 in PM 10 (4·8%), negative emotions (3·9%), anger (3·1%), heavy meal (2·7%), positive emotions (2·4%), sexual activity (2·2%), cocaine use (0·9%), marijuana smoking (0·8%) and respiratory infections (0·6%). In view of both the magnitude of the risk and the prevalence in the population, air pollution is an important trigger of myocardial infarction, it is of similar magnitude (PAF 5–7%) as other well accepted triggers such as physical exertion, alcohol, and coffee. Our work shows that ever-present small risks might have considerable public health relevance. The research on air pollution and health at Hasselt University is supported by a grant from the Flemish Scientific Fund ( FWO, Krediet aan navorsers/G.0873.11), tUL-impulse financing, and bijzonder onderzoeksfonds (BOF) and at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven by the sustainable development programme of BELSPO (Belgian Science Policy).

PurposeWhile the consumption of ultra-processed foods is steadily increasing, there is a growing interest in more sustainable diets that would include more plant protein. We aimed to study associations between the degree of food processing, patterns of protein intake, diet quality and cardiometabolic risk.MethodsUsing the NOVA classification, we assessed the proportion of energy from unprocessed/minimally processed foods (MPFp), processed foods (PFp) and ultra-processed foods (UPFp) in the diets of 1774 adults (18–79 years) from the latest cross-sectional French national survey (INCA3, 2014–2015). We studied the associations between MPFp, PFp and UPFp with protein intakes, diet quality (using the PANDiet scoring system, the global (PDI), healthful (hPDI) and unhealthful (uPDI) plant-based diet indices) and risk of cardiometabolic death (using the EpiDiet model).ResultsMPFp was positively associated with animal protein intake and plant protein diversity, whereas PFp was positively associated with plant protein intake and negatively with plant protein diversity. The PANDiet was positively associated with MPFp (β = 0.14, P < 0.0001) but negatively with UPFp (β = − 0.05, P < 0.0001). These associations were modified by adjustment for protein intakes and plant protein diversity. As estimated with comparative risk assessment modeling between extreme tertiles of intake, mortality from cardiometabolic diseases would be decreased with higher MPFp (e.g. by 31% for ischemic heart diseases) and increased with higher UPFp (by 42%) and PFp (by 11%).ConclusionsIn the French population, in contrast with UPFp, higher MPFp was associated with higher animal protein intake, better plant protein diversity, higher diet quality and markedly lower cardiometabolic risk.

Purpose Regional and national data on leukemia’s burden provide a better comprehension of leukemia’s trends and are vital for policy-makers for better allocation of the resources. This study reports the burden of leukemia, and the attributed burden to its risk factors in 21 countries and territories of the North Africa and Middle East. Methods Data from cancer registration, scientific literature, survey, and reports were the input to estimate the burden of leukemia. In addition, the burden of attributable risk factors with evidence of causation with leukemia was calculated using the comparative risk assessment framework. All measures are reported as counts and rates divided by sex and specific age groups. Results In 2019, there were 39,297 (95% uncertainty interval: 32,617–45,056) incident cases of leukemia with an age-standardized rate (ASR) of 7.8 (6.5–8.8) per 100,000 in the region. There were also 25,143 (21,109–28,826) deaths and 1,011,555 (822,537–1,173,621) DALYs attributed to Leukemia with an ASR of 5.4 (4.6–6.1) per 100,000 and 183.4 (150.7–211.2) per 100,000, respectively. Years of life lost (YLLs) (179.4 [147.2–206.7]) were accountable for the major part of DALYs. All count measures increased, while all the ASRs decreased during 1990–2019. The Syrian Arab Republic, Qatar, and Afghanistan had the highest ASR incidence, mortality, and DALYs rate in 2019. Incidence, DALYs, and prevalence rates were higher in males of all age groups except under five, and the highest rates were observed in +75 age group. Four major risk factors for leukemia were smoking, high body mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and formaldehyde. Conclusion Despite the reduction in age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality, the burden of leukemia has increased steadily, due to population growth and aging. Notable variations exist between age-standardized rates in region’s countries.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important contributor to morbidity and mortality from noncommunicable diseases. We aimed to examine the longitudinal trajectories in risk factors, estimate their impact on CKD burden in China from 1991 to 2011, and project trends in the next 20 years.Methods: We used data from a cohort of the China Health and Nutrition Survey and applied the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the number of CKD events attributable to all non-optimal levels of each risk factors.Results: In 2011, current smoking was the leading individual attributable factor for CKD burden in China responsible for 7.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.5–8.3) million CKD cases with a population-attributable fraction of 8.7% (95% CI, 6.0–11.6), while the rates of smoking have reduced and may have mitigated the increase in CKD. High triglyceride (TG) and high systolic blood pressure (SBP) were the leading metabolic risk factors responsible for 6.8 (95% CI, 6.4–7.1) million and 5.8 (95% CI, 5.5–6.1) million CKD-attributable cases, respectively. Additionally, the number of CKD cases associated with high body mass index (BMI), high diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high plasma glucose, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was 5.4 (95% CI, 5.1–5.6), 3.9 (95% CI, 3.7–4.1), 3.0 (95% CI, 2.8–3.1) and 2.6 (95% CI, 2.5–2.8) million, respectively.Conclusions: Current smoking, high TG, and high SBP were the top three risk factors that contributed to CKD burden in China. Increased BMI, DBP, plasma glucose, and decreased HDL-C were also associated with the increase in CKD burden.

ObjectivesThe contribution of occupational exposures to the cancer burden can be estimated using population-attributable fractions, which is of great importance for policy making. This paper reviews occupational carcinogens, and presents the most relevant risk relations to cancer in high-income countries using France as an example, to provide a framework for national estimation of cancer burden attributable to occupational exposure.MethodsOccupational exposures that should be included in cancer burden studies were evaluated using multiple criteria: classified as carcinogenic or probably carcinogenic by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Monographs volumes 1–114, being a primary occupational exposure, historical and current presence of the exposure in France and the availability of exposure and risk relation data. Relative risk estimates were obtained from published systematic reviews and from the IARC Monographs.ResultsOf the 118 group 1 and 75 group 2A carcinogens, 37 exposures and 73 exposure-cancer site pairs were relevant. Lung cancer was associated with the most occupational carcinogenic exposures (namely, 18), followed by bladder cancer and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Ionising radiation was associated with the highest number of cancer sites (namely, 20), followed by asbestos and working in the rubber manufacturing industry. Asbestos, bis(chloromethyl)ether, nickel and wood dust had the strongest effect on cancer, with relative risks above 5.ConclusionsA large number of occupational exposures continues to impact the burden of cancer in high-income countries such as France. Information on types of exposures, affected jobs, industries and cancer sites affected is key for prioritising policy and prevention initiatives.

Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.