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Seizing power : the strategic logic of military coups
How coups happen and why half of them fail. While coups drive a majority of regime changes and are responsible for the overthrow of many democratic governments, there has been very little empirical work on the subject. Seizing Power develops a new theory of coup dynamics and outcomes, drawing on 300 hours of interviews with coup participants and an original dataset of 471 coup attempts worldwide from 1950 to 2000. Naunihal Singh delivers a concise and empirical evaluation, arguing that understanding the dynamics of military factions is essential to predicting the success or failure of coups. Singh draws on an aspect of game theory known as a coordination game to explain coup dynamics. He finds a strong correlation between successful coups and the ability of military actors to project control and the inevitability of success. Examining Ghana's multiple coups and the 1991 coup attempt in the USSR, Singh shows how military actors project an image of impending victory that is often more powerful than the reality on the ground. In addition, Singh also identifies three distinct types of coup dynamics, each with a different probability of success, based on where within the organization each coup originated: coups from top military officers, coups from the middle ranks, and mutinous coups from low-level soldiers.
eBook
Independent Mexico
In mid-nineteenth-century Mexico, garrisons, town councils, state legislatures, and an array of political actors, groups, and communities began aggressively petitioning the government at both local and national levels to address their grievances. Often viewed as a revolt or a coup d'état, thesepronunciamientoswere actually a complex form of insurrectionary action that relied first on the proclamation and circulation of a plan that listed the petitioners' demands and then on endorsement by copycat pronunciamientos that forced the authorities, be they national or regional, to the negotiating table.
InIndependent Mexico, Will Fowler provides a comprehensive overview of the pronunciamiento practice following the Plan of Iguala. This fourth and final installment in, and culmination of, a larger exploration of the pronunciamiento highlights the extent to which this model of political contestation evolved. The result of more than three decades of pronunciamiento politics was the bloody Civil War of the Reforma (1858-60) and the ensuing French Intervention (1862-67). Given the frequency and importance of the pronunciamiento, this book is also a concise political history of independent Mexico.
eBook
Erdoوgan's 'new' Turkey : attempted coup d'âetat and the acceleration of political crisis
\"Demonstrating how Turkey's politics developed, the book focuses on the causes and consequences of the failed coup d'âetat on 15 July 2016. The momentous event and its aftermath challenges us to ask to what extent the coup was the cause of Turkey's present crisis, or simply an accelerant of trends already in motion and thus a catalyst for the realization of Erdoوgan's latent authoritarian impulses. Bringing together approaches from politics and sociology to history and anthropology, the chapters shed much-needed light on these crucial questions. They offer scholars and non-specialists alike a comprehensive overview of the implications of the attempt and its aftermath in the fields of religion, democracy, the Kurds, the state, resistance and more besides. Its effects have been felt in almost every aspect of Turkish society from religion to politics, yet it came at a time when Turkey was already experiencing significant social and political turmoil under the increasingly authoritarian leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoوgan. Readers interested in contemporary politics, Turkish and Middle Eastern studies will find the volume useful, as they ponder other cases in this era of democratic retrenchment and global turmoil\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Myanmar in Crisis
Myanmar in Crisis brings together scholars from across the social sciences to analyse the dual crises of COVID-19 and the 2021 military coup. All of the essays address one of four themes around the concept of crisis: society in crisis, a state in crisis, an economy in crisis, and international relations in crisis. Several authors examine the contested nature of state authority in the post-coup revolutionary context, including the emergence of new governance dynamics; others discuss heterogenous forms of resistance and the potential for building a more inclusive, just, and tolerant society in the future of Myanmar. The volume also explores the economic crisis caused by the pandemic and the coup and its devastating effects on people's lives and livelihoods: the authors provide a deep dive into the impacts of restrictive COVID-19 prevention measures on local communities, the growing livelihoods crisis since the coup, and the impacts of both crises on foreign trade and investment. Scaling up from that local perspective, the book also looks at Myanmar's history of foreign relations, the response of the international community to the coup and the challenges faced by foreign governments and regional bodies in navigating the deteriorating political situation. Held together, the volume highlights the ongoing state of crisis in Myanmar, its impact on society and the possibilities for recovery and reform, amidst a powerful new revolutionary movement. Beyond providing crucial insights to Southeast Asian area specialists, the book offers deep insights into the way that multiple crises interact, amplify one another, and open up possibilities for hope amidst tragedy.
eBook
Determinants of the Attempting and Outcome of Coups d'état
Previous studies have attested to leaders \"coup-proofing\" their regimes by reducing the ability or disposition of their armies to seek their removal. The following article tests the utility of these efforts. \"Structural\" coup-proofing such as counterbalancing is expected to reduce the ability to organize a coup plot by creating substantial coordination obstacles to soldiers. Coup-proofing by spoiling militaries with organizational resources is expected to reduce the willingness to intervene. However, increased organizational resources are expected to increase the army's capabilities, thereby increasing the likelihood of a coup's success. The theory is empirically tested using a selection model with a global sample from 1961 to 2000. Findings suggest that both coup-proofing strategies are effective deterrents of coup activity and, more generally, that characteristics of the military appear to be far more important than economic influences on coups.
Journal Article
Pretext for Mass Murder
In the early morning hours of October 1, 1965, a group calling itself the September 30th Movement kidnapped and executed six generals of the Indonesian army, including its highest commander. The group claimed that it was attempting to preempt a coup, but it was quickly defeated as the senior surviving general, Haji Mohammad Suharto, drove the movement’s partisans out of Jakarta. Riding the crest of mass violence, Suharto blamed the Communist Party of Indonesia for masterminding the movement and used the emergency as a pretext for gradually eroding President Sukarno’s powers and installing himself as a ruler. Imprisoning and killing hundreds of thousands of alleged communists over the next year, Suharto remade the events of October 1, 1965 into the central event of modern Indonesian history and the cornerstone of his thirty-two-year dictatorship.
Despite its importance as a trigger for one of the twentieth century’s worst cases of mass violence, the September 30th Movement has remained shrouded in uncertainty. Who actually masterminded it? What did they hope to achieve? Why did they fail so miserably? And what was the movement’s connection to international Cold War politics? In
Pretext for Mass Murder , John Roosa draws on a wealth of new primary source material to suggest a solution to the mystery behind the movement and the enabling myth of Suharto’s repressive regime. His book is a remarkable feat of historical investigation.
Finalist, Social Sciences Book Award, the International Convention of Asian Scholars
eBook