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This study assessed the influences of different lifestyle on mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression and established a decision tree prediction model to analyse their predictive significance on MCI progression incidence. From October 2015 to February 2020,330 patients with MCI were recruited, and demographic and lifestyle information collected. They were followed up for 19.04 ± 10.227 months. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination Scale every 6 months, and they were divided into MCI stable group and MCI progression group. The Kaplan Meier survival analysis showed an overall cohort survival rate of 33.2%; the annual conversion rate of MCI progression was 20%. Physical exercise, social engagement, high-fat diet, age, napping, and tea drinking were decision tree prediction model nodes. Hobbies were the most important factor for predicting MCI progression. The MCI progression probability rates were: with hobbies 26.829% (44 cases), without hobbies 57.831% (96 cases); for those withot hobbies, with physical exercise 43.077% (28 cases) without physical exercise 72.340% (68 cases); for those without hobbies with physical exercise and social engagement 20.000% (4 cases), without social engagement 53.333% (24 cases); for those without hobbies, physical exercises and social engagement and with nap habits 48.485% (16 cases), without nap habits 66.667% (8 cases). The decision tree prediction model AUC for predicting the MCI progression receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.737 (95% confidence interval: 0.685-0.785) (75.71% sensitivity, 71.75% specificity, P < 0.001. Hobbies, physical exercise, social engagement, napping, and drinking tea can help prevent MCI progression, while a high-fat diet may exacerbate MCI progression. In this study the rule with the lowest MCI progress probability for those who had hobbies, high-fat diet, and social engagement. And the decision tree model had good prediction efficiency.

Background Psoriasis is an immune-mediated disease characterised by chronically elevated pro-inflammatory cytokine levels, leading to aberrant keratinocyte proliferation and differentiation. Although certain clinical phenotypes, such as plaque psoriasis, are well defined, it is currently unclear whether there are molecular subtypes that might impact on prognosis or treatment outcomes. Results We present a pipeline for patient stratification through a comprehensive analysis of gene expression in paired lesional and non-lesional psoriatic tissue samples, compared with controls, to establish differences in RNA expression patterns across all tissue types. Ensembles of decision tree predictors were employed to cluster psoriatic samples on the basis of gene expression patterns and reveal gene expression signatures that best discriminate molecular disease subtypes. This multi-stage procedure was applied to several published psoriasis studies and a comparison of gene expression patterns across datasets was performed. Conclusion Overall, classification of psoriasis gene expression patterns revealed distinct molecular sub-groups within the clinical phenotype of plaque psoriasis. Enrichment for TGFb and ErbB signaling pathways, noted in one of the two psoriasis subgroups, suggested that this group may be more amenable to therapies targeting these pathways. Our study highlights the potential biological relevance of using ensemble decision tree predictors to determine molecular disease subtypes, in what may initially appear to be a homogenous clinical group. The R code used in this paper is available upon request.

The Eastern inland of Syria has a Mediterranean climate in the north and a tropical desert climate in the south, which results in a dry south and wet north climate feature, especially in winter. The circulation dynamics analysis of 16 winter strong precipitation events shows that the key system is the dry and warm front cyclone. In most cases (81–100% of the 16 cases), the moisture content in the northern part of the cyclone is higher than that in the southern part (influenced by the Mediterranean climate zone). The humidity in the middle layer is higher than that near the surface (uplifting of the dry warm front), and the thickness of the wet layer and the vertical ascending layer obviously expands upward (as shown by the satellite cloud top reflection). These characteristics lead to the moisture thermodynamic instability in the eastern part of the cyclone (dry and warm air at low level and wet and cold air at upper level). The cyclone flow transports momentum to the local humid layer of the Mediterranean climate belt and then causes unstable conditions and strong rainfall. Considering the limitations of the Syrian ground station network, the NCEP/CFSR global reanalysis data and MODIS aqua-3 cloud parameter data are used to build a multi-source factor index of winter precipitation from 2002 to 2016. A decision tree prediction model is then established and the factors index is constructed into tree shapes by the nodes and branches through calculating rules of information entropy. The suitable tree shape models are adjusted and selected by an automated training and testing process. The forecast model can classify rainfall with a forecast accuracy of more than 90% for strong rainfall over 30 mm.

Predicting pillar stability is a vital task in hard rock mines as pillar instability can cause large-scale collapse hazards. However, it is challenging because the pillar stability is affected by many factors. With the accumulation of pillar stability cases, machine learning (ML) has shown great potential to predict pillar stability. This study aims to predict hard rock pillar stability using gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithms. First, 236 cases with five indicators were collected from seven hard rock mines. Afterwards, the hyperparameters of each model were tuned using a five-fold cross validation (CV) approach. Based on the optimal hyperparameters configuration, prediction models were constructed using training set (70% of the data). Finally, the test set (30% of the data) was adopted to evaluate the performance of each model. The precision, recall, and F1 indexes were utilized to analyze prediction results of each level, and the accuracy and their macro average values were used to assess the overall prediction performance. Based on the sensitivity analysis of indicators, the relative importance of each indicator was obtained. In addition, the safety factor approach and other ML algorithms were adopted as comparisons. The results showed that GBDT, XGBoost, and LightGBM algorithms achieved a better comprehensive performance, and their prediction accuracies were 0.8310, 0.8310, and 0.8169, respectively. The average pillar stress and ratio of pillar width to pillar height had the most important influences on prediction results. The proposed methodology can provide a reliable reference for pillar design and stability risk management.

Decision Trees (DTs) are predictive models in supervised learning, known not only for their unquestionable utility in a wide range of applications but also for their interpretability and robustness. Research on the subject is still going strong after almost 60 years since its original inception, and in the last decade, several researchers have tackled key matters in the field. Although many great surveys have been published in the past, there is a gap since none covers the last decade of the field as a whole. This paper proposes a review of the main recent advances in DT research, focusing on three major goals of a predictive learner: issues regarding the fitting of training data, generalization, and interpretability. Moreover, by organizing several topics that have been previously analyzed in isolation, this survey attempts to provide an overview of the field, its key concerns, and future trends, serving as a good entry point for both researchers and newcomers to the machine learning community.

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduction of the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods contributed highly in the advancement of prediction systems providing better performance and cost-effective solutions. Due to the vast benefits and potential of ML, its popularity dramatically increased among hydrologists. Researchers through introducing novel ML methods and hybridizing of the existing ones aim at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and to give insight into the most suitable models. In this paper, the literature where ML models were benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed are particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview on the various ML algorithms used in the field. The performance comparison of ML models presents an in-depth understanding of the different techniques within the framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As a result, this paper introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization are reported as the most effective strategies for the improvement of ML methods. This survey can be used as a guideline for hydrologists as well as climate scientists in choosing the proper ML method according to the prediction task.

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy diagnosed in women worldwide. The prevalence and incidence of breast cancer is increasing every year; therefore, early diagnosis along with suitable relapse detection is an important strategy for prognosis improvement. This study aimed to compare different machine algorithms to select the best model for predicting breast cancer recurrence. The prediction model was developed by using eleven different machine learning (ML) algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector classification (SVC), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), decision tree, multilayer perceptron (MLP), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), Gaussian naive Bayes (GaussianNB), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), to predict breast cancer recurrence. The area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and F1 score were used to evaluate the performance of the prognostic model. Based on performance, the optimal ML was selected, and feature importance was ranked by Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values. Compared to the other 10 algorithms, the results showed that the AdaBoost algorithm had the best prediction performance for successfully predicting breast cancer recurrence and was adopted in the establishment of the prediction model. Moreover, CA125, CEA, Fbg, and tumor diameter were found to be the most important features in our dataset to predict breast cancer recurrence. More importantly, our study is the first to use the SHAP method to improve the interpretability of clinicians to predict the recurrence model of breast cancer based on the AdaBoost algorithm. The AdaBoost algorithm offers a clinical decision support model and successfully identifies the recurrence of breast cancer.

Climate change poses significant challenges to global food security by altering precipitation patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, and floods. These phenomena directly affect agricultural productivity, leading to lower crop yields and economic losses for farmers. This study leverages Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques to predict crop yields and assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture, providing a novel approach to understanding complex interactions between climatic and agronomic factors. Using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), the study identifies temperature as the most critical factor influencing crop yields, with notable interactions observed between rainfall patterns and macronutrient levels. Advanced regression models, including Decision Tree Regressor, Random Forest Regressor, and LightGBM Regressor, achieved exceptional predictive performance, with R² scores reaching 0.92, mean squared errors as low as 0.02, and mean absolute errors of 0.015. Additionally, XAI techniques such as SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) enhanced the interpretability of the predictions, offering actionable insights into the relative importance of key features. These insights inform strategies for agricultural decision-making and climate adaptation. By integrating AI-driven predictions with XAI-based interpretability, this research presents a robust and transparent framework for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture, emphasizing its potential for scalable application in precision farming and policy development.

Reliable and accurate prediction model capturing the changes in solar radiation is essential in the power generation and renewable carbon-free energy industry. Malaysia has immense potential to develop such an industry due to its location in the equatorial zone and its climatic characteristics with high solar energy resources. However, solar energy accounts for only 2–4.6% of total energy utilization. Recently, in developed countries, various prediction models based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied to predict solar radiation. In this study, one of the most recent AI algorithms, namely, boosted decision tree regression (BDTR) model, was applied to predict the changes in solar radiation based on collected data in Malaysia. The proposed model then compared with other conventional regression algorithms, such as linear regression and neural network. Two different normalization techniques (Gaussian normalizer binning normalizer), splitting size, and different input parameters were investigated to enhance the accuracy of the models. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis were introduced to validate the accuracy of the proposed model. The results revealed that BDTR outperformed other algorithms with a high level of accuracy. The funding of this study could be used as a reliable tool by engineers to improve the renewable energy sector in Malaysia and provide alternative sustainable energy resources.

When a tunnel boring machine (TBM) is applied to the tunnel constructed in the mixed-face ground, the ground conditions ahead of tunnel face have a key impact on the operation performance and safety. Aiming to establish an automatic prediction model for geological conditions based on the operational data of TBM, the first step is to conduct clustering analysis using Canopy and K-means algorithms to recognize ground types based on geological data. Then, the ground type obtained by clustering analysis and corresponding operational parameters of tunneling machine are combined to construct a sample set. The outlier detection and synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) were used to preprocess the sample set. To obtain the best prediction effect, three different classifiers were applied for the model selection. By comparing the prediction performance of these three classifiers models, the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model with accuracy of 0.804 shows the best performance as the geological prediction model. The test results of the prediction model show a low sensitivity when training set is small (set as 20%). The analysis of the importance of the model inputs showed that among the six machine parameters used in this study, the total thrust force, penetration rate and ratio of thrust to torque, are the three most influential inputs on the ground condition prediction results. Hence, the proposed prediction procedure can be applied to characterized and predicted ground conditions to ensure the safety and efficiency of tunneling.HighlightsClustering algorithms are used to distinguish the geological types of tunneling faces.A GBDT-based recognize model for geological conditions in TBMs tunneling process is developed.The proposed model is examined by different sizes of training sets for testing sensibility.The importance analysis of TBM operational parameters is conducted.