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Institutional trust and misinformation in the response to the 2018–19 Ebola outbreak in North Kivu, DR Congo: a population-based survey
The current outbreak of Ebola in eastern DR Congo, beginning in 2018, emerged in a complex and violent political and security environment. Community-level prevention and outbreak control measures appear to be dependent on public trust in relevant authorities and information, but little scholarship has explored these issues. We aimed to investigate the role of trust and misinformation on individual preventive behaviours during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD).
We surveyed 961 adults between Sept 1 and Sept 16, 2018. We used a multistage sampling design in Beni and Butembo in North Kivu, DR Congo. Of 412 avenues and cells (the lowest administrative structures; 99 in Beni and 313 in Butembo), we randomly selected 30 in each city. In each avenue or cell, 16 households were selected using the WHO Expanded Programme on Immunization's random walk approach. In each household, one adult (aged ≥18 years) was randomly selected for interview. Standardised questionnaires were administered by experienced interviewers. We used multivariate models to examine the intermediate variables of interest, including institutional trust and belief in selected misinformation, with outcomes of interest related to EVD prevention behaviours.
Among 961 respondents, 349 (31·9%, 95% CI 27·4–36·9) trusted that local authorities represent their interest. Belief in misinformation was widespread, with 230 (25·5%, 21·7–29·6) respondents believing that the Ebola outbreak was not real. Low institutional trust and belief in misinformation were associated with a decreased likelihood of adopting preventive behaviours, including acceptance of Ebola vaccines (odds ratio 0·22, 95% CI 0·21–0·22, and 1·40, 1·39–1·42) and seeking formal health care (0·06, 0·05–0·06, and 1·16, 1·15–1·17).
The findings underscore the practical implications of mistrust and misinformation for outbreak control. These factors are associated with low compliance with messages of social and behavioural change and refusal to seek formal medical care or accept vaccines, which in turn increases the risk of spread of EVD.
The Harvard Humanitarian Initiative Innovation Fund.
Journal Article
Crisis averted : the hidden science of fighting outbreaks
\"A fascinating window into the secret life of epidemiology, weaving together stories of triumph and tragedy, with a boots-on-the-ground perspective on how we can avert the next public health crisis There are few visible markers of the accomplishments of public health. If epidemiologists do their jobs, nothing happens. An outbreak does not grow into an epidemic. A child does not go hungry. A would-be smoker never lights up. These achievements are rarely noticed or celebrated, but Caitlin Rivers lives for such victories. By making sure that things don't happen, she and legions of scientists, practitioners, and policymakers change the course of history. We have many of the tools and experiences needed to prevent the next crisis, but countless challenges remain, including constantly emerging pathogens, the rapid growth of biotechnology, and the inconsistent cycles of funding for government organizations like the CDC. Progress can be slow, even with the next pandemic potentially right around the corner, but the unsung heroes in public health remain focused on their missions. Crisis Averted is their story-from the eradication of smallpox in the 20th century to today's safeguards against extraterrestrial germs. By taking a candid look at how we solve problems in public health, Caitlin Rivers illuminates the role of epidemiology in all our lives and lays out the case for what can be accomplished, given sufficient vision, leadership, and resources. Crisis Averted is an inspiring and galvanizing clarion call for us to work together towards a healthier, more resilient future\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Stories in the Time of Cholera
Cholera, although it can kill an adult through dehydration in half a day, is easily treated. Yet in 1992-93, some five hundred people died from cholera in the Orinoco Delta of eastern Venezuela. In some communities, a third of the adults died in a single night, as anthropologist Charles Briggs and Clara Mantini-Briggs, a Venezuelan public health physician, reveal in their frontline report. Why, they ask in this moving and thought-provoking account, did so many die near the end of the twentieth century from a bacterial infection associated with the premodern past? It was evident that the number of deaths resulted not only from inadequacies in medical services but also from the failure of public health officials to inform residents that cholera was likely to arrive. Less evident were the ways that scientists, officials, and politicians connected representations of infectious diseases with images of social inequality. In Venezuela, cholera was racialized as officials used anthropological notions of \"culture\" in deflecting blame away from their institutions and onto the victims themselves. The disease, the space of the Orinoco Delta, and the \"indigenous ethnic group\" who suffered cholera all came to seem somehow synonymous. One of the major threats to people's health worldwide is this deadly cycle of passing the blame. Carefully documenting how stigma, stories, and statistics circulate across borders, this first-rate ethnography demonstrates that the process undermines all the efforts of physicians and public health officials and at the same time contributes catastrophically to epidemics not only of cholera but also of tuberculosis, malaria, AIDS, and other killers. The authors have harnessed their own outrage over what took place during the epidemic and its aftermath in order to make clear the political and human stakes involved in the circulation of narratives, resources, and germs.
eBook
The episodic resurgence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 virus
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 activity has intensified globally since 2021, increasingly causing mass mortality in wild birds and poultry and incidental infections in mammals
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–
3
. However, the ecological and virological properties that underscore future mitigation strategies still remain unclear. Using epidemiological, spatial and genomic approaches, we demonstrate changes in the origins of resurgent HPAI H5 and reveal significant shifts in virus ecology and evolution. Outbreak data show key resurgent events in 2016–2017 and 2020–2021, contributing to the emergence and panzootic spread of H5N1 in 2021–2022. Genomic analysis reveals that the 2016–2017 epizootics originated in Asia, where HPAI H5 reservoirs are endemic. In 2020–2021, 2.3.4.4b H5N8 viruses emerged in African poultry, featuring mutations altering
HA
structure and receptor binding. In 2021–2022, a new H5N1 virus evolved through reassortment in wild birds in Europe, undergoing further reassortment with low-pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic birds during global dissemination. These results highlight a shift in the HPAI H5 epicentre beyond Asia and indicate that increasing persistence of HPAI H5 in wild birds is facilitating geographic and host range expansion, accelerating dispersion velocity and increasing reassortment potential. As earlier outbreaks of H5N1 and H5N8 were caused by more stable genomic constellations, these recent changes reflect adaptation across the domestic-bird–wild-bird interface. Elimination strategies in domestic birds therefore remain a high priority to limit future epizootics.
Recent resurgences of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses have different origins and virus ecologies as their epicentres shift and viruses evolve, with changes indicating increased adaptation among domestic birds.
Journal Article
The next pandemic : on the front lines against humankind's gravest dangers
\"Throughout history, humankind's biggest killers have been infectious diseases: the black death, the Spanish flu, and AIDS alone account for over one hundred million deaths. We ignore this reality most of the time, but when a new threat--ebola, SARS, zika--seems imminent, we send our best and bravest doctors to contain it. People like Dr. Ali S. Khan\"--Amazon.com.
Book
Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea
We describe the epidemiology of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in a call center in South Korea. We obtained information on demographic characteristics by using standardized epidemiologic investigation forms. We performed descriptive analyses and reported the results as frequencies and proportions for categoric variables. Of 1,143 persons who were tested for COVID-19, a total of 97 (8.5%, 95% CI 7.0%-10.3%) had confirmed cases. Of these, 94 were working in an 11th-floor call center with 216 employees, translating to an attack rate of 43.5% (95% CI 36.9%-50.4%). The household secondary attack rate among symptomatic case-patients was 16.2% (95% CI 11.6%- 22.0%). Of the 97 persons with confirmed COVID-19, only 4 (1.9%) remained asymptomatic within 14 days of quarantine, and none of their household contacts acquired secondary infections. Extensive contact tracing, testing all contacts, and early quarantine blocked further transmission and might be effective for containing rapid outbreaks in crowded work settings.
Journal Article