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Freshwater ecosystems provide vital services, yet are facing increasing risks from global change. In particular, lake thermal dynamics have been altered around the world as a result of climate change, necessitating a predictive understanding of how climate will continue to alter lakes in the future as well as the associated uncertainty in these predictions. Numerous sources of uncertainty affect projections of future lake conditions but few are quantified, limiting the use of lake modeling projections as management tools. To quantify and evaluate the effects of two potentially important sources of uncertainty, lake model selection uncertainty and climate model selection uncertainty, we developed ensemble projections of lake thermal dynamics for a dimictic lake in New Hampshire, USA (Lake Sunapee). Our ensemble projections used four different climate models as inputs to five vertical one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic lake models under three different climate change scenarios to simulate thermal metrics from 2006 to 2099. We found that almost all the lake thermal metrics modeled (surface water temperature, bottom water temperature, Schmidt stability, stratification duration, and ice cover, but not thermocline depth) are projected to change over the next century. Importantly, we found that the dominant source of uncertainty varied among the thermal metrics, as thermal metrics associated with the surface waters (surface water temperature, total ice duration) were driven primarily by climate model selection uncertainty, while metrics associated with deeper depths (bottom water temperature, stratification duration) were dominated by lake model selection uncertainty. Consequently, our results indicate that researchers generating projections of lake bottom water metrics should prioritize including multiple lake models for best capturing projection uncertainty, while those focusing on lake surface metrics should prioritize including multiple climate models. Overall, our ensemble modeling study reveals important information on how climate change will affect lake thermal properties, and also provides some of the first analyses on how climate model selection uncertainty and lake model selection uncertainty interact to affect projections of future lake dynamics.

Physiological studies focus on the responses of cells, tissues and individuals to stressors, usually in laboratory situations. Conservation and management, on the other hand, focus on populations. The field of conservation physiology addresses the question of how abiotic drivers of physiological responses at the level of the individual alter requirements for successful conservation and management of populations. To achieve this, impacts of physiological effects at the individual level need to be scaled to impacts on population dynamics, which requires consideration of ecology. Successfully realizing the potential of conservation physiology requires interdisciplinary studies incorporating physiology and ecology, and requires that a constructive dialogue develops between these traditionally disparate fields. To encourage this dialogue, we consider the increasingly explicit incorporation of physiology into ecological models applied to marine fish conservation and management. Conservation physiology is further challenged as the physiology of an individual revealed under laboratory conditions is unlikely to reflect realized responses to the complex variable stressors to which it is exposed in the wild. Telemetry technology offers the capability to record an animal's behaviour while simultaneously recording environmental variables to which it is exposed. We consider how the emerging insights from telemetry can strengthen the incorporation of physiology into ecology.

Summary When the rate of photosynthesis is greatly diminished, such as during severe drought, extreme temperature or low light, it seems advantageous for plants to close stomata and completely halt water loss. However, water loss continues through the cuticle and incompletely closed stomata, together constituting the leaf minimum conductance (gmin). In this review, we critically evaluate the sources of variation in gmin, quantitatively compare various methods for its estimation, and illustrate the role of gmin in models of leaf gas exchange. A literature compilation of gmin as measured by the weight loss of detached leaves is presented, which shows much variation in this trait, which is not clearly related to species groups, climate of origin or leaf type. Much evidence points to the idea that gmin is highly responsive to the growing conditions of the plant, including soil water availability, temperature and air humidity – as we further demonstrate with two case studies. We pay special attention to the role of the minimum conductance in the Ball–Berry model of stomatal conductance, and caution against the usual regression-based method for its estimation. The synthesis presented here provides guidelines for the use of gmin in ecosystem models, and points to clear research gaps for this drought tolerance trait.

Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a nearterm, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.

Climate change and resource exploitation have been shown to modify the importance of bottom-up and top-down forces in ecosystems. However, the resulting pattern of trophic control in complex food webs is an emergent property of the system and thus unintuitive. We develop a statistical nondeterministic model, capable of modeling complex patterns of trophic control for the heavily impacted North Sea ecosystem. The model is driven solely by fishing mortality and climatic variables and based on time-series data covering >40 y for six plankton and eight fish groups along with one bird group (>20 y). Simulations show the outstanding importance of top-down exploitation pressure for the dynamics of fish populations. Whereas fishing effects on predators indirectly altered plankton abundance, bottom-up climatic processes dominate plankton dynamics. Importantly, we show planktivorous fish to have a central role in the North Sea food web initiating complex cascading effects across and between trophic levels. Our linked model integrates bottom-up and top-down effects and is able to simulate complex long-term changes in ecosystem components under a combination of stressor scenarios. Our results suggest that in marine ecosystems, pathways for bottom-up and top-down forces are not necessarily mutually exclusive and together can lead to the emergence of complex patterns of control.

The microfossil record demonstrates the presence of eukaryotic organisms in the marine ecosystem by about 1,700 million years ago (Ma). Despite this, steranes, a biomarker indicator of eukaryotic organisms, do not appear in the rock record until about 780 Ma in what is known as the “rise of algae.” Before this, it is argued that eukaryotes were minor ecosystem members, with prokaryotes dominating both primary production and ecosystem dynamics. In this view, the rise of algae was possibly sparked by increased nutrient availability supplying the higher nutrient requirements of eukaryotic algae. Here, we challenge this view. We use a size-based ecosystem model to show that the size distribution of preserved eukaryotic microfossils from 1,700 Ma and onward required an active eukaryote ecosystem complete with phototrophy, osmotrophy, phagotrophy, and mixotrophy. Model results suggest that eukaryotes accounted for one-half or more of the living biomass, with eukaryotic algae contributing to about one-half of total marine primary production. These ecosystems lived with deep-water phosphate levels of at least 10% of modern levels. The general lack of steranes in the pre–780-Ma rock record could be a result of poor preservation.

Background The dynamics of phosphorus (P) in the environment is important for regulating nutrient cycles in natural and managed ecosystems and an integral part in assessing biological resilience against environmental change. Organic P (Po) compounds play key roles in biological and ecosystems function in the terrestrial environment being critical to cell function, growth and reproduction. Scope We asked a group of experts to consider the global issues associated with Po in the terrestrial environment, methodological strengths and weaknesses, benefits to be gained from understanding the Po cycle, and to set priorities for Po research. Conclusions We identified seven key opportunities for Po research including: the need for integrated, quality controlled and functionally based methodologies; assessment of stoichiometry with other elements in organic matter; understanding the dynamics of Po in natural and managed systems; the role of microorganisms in controlling Po cycles; the implications of nanoparticles in the environment and the need for better modelling and communication of the research. Each priority is discussed and a statement of intent for the Po research community is made that highlights there are key contributions to be made toward understanding biogeochemical cycles, dynamics and function of natural ecosystems and the management of agricultural systems.

In recent years, considerable efforts have been made to restore turbid, phytoplankton-dominated shallow lakes to a clear-water state with high coverage of submerged macrophytes. Various dynamic lake models with simplified physical representations of vertical gradients, such as PCLake, have been used to predict external nutrient load thresholds for such nonlinear regime shifts. However, recent observational studies have questioned the concept of regime shifts by emphasizing that gradual changes are more common than sudden shifts. We investigated if regime shifts would be more gradual if the models account for depth-dependent heterogeneity of the system by including the possibility of vertical gradients in the water column and sediment layers for the entire depth. Hence, bifurcation analysis was undertaken using the 1D hydrodynamic model GOTM, accounting for vertical gradients, coupled to the aquatic ecosystem model PCLake, which is implemented in the framework for aquatic biogeochemical modeling (FABM). First, the model was calibrated and validated against a comprehensive data set covering two consecutive 7-yr periods from Lake Hinge, a shallow, eutrophic Danish lake. The autocalibration program Auto-Calibration Python (ACPy) was applied to achieve a more comprehensive adjustment of model parameters. The model simulations showed excellent agreement with observed data for water temperature, total nitrogen, and nitrate and good agreement for ammonium, total phosphorus, phosphate, and chlorophyll a concentrations. Zooplankton and macrophyte coverage were adequately simulated for the purpose of this study, and in general the GOTM-FABM-PCLake model simulations performed well compared with other model studies. In contrast to previous model studies ignoring depth heterogeneity, our bifurcation analysis revealed that the spatial extent and depth limitation of macrophytes as well as phytoplankton chlorophyll-a responded more gradually over time to a reduction in the external phosphorus load, albeit some hysteresis effects still appeared. In a management perspective, our study emphasizes the need to include depth heterogeneity in the model structure to more correctly determine at which external nutrient load a given lake changes ecosystem state to a clear-water condition.

Funding for this research was provided by NSF DEB EF-1340270 and the Climate Mitigation Initiative at the Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University. SL acknowledges financial support from the China Scholarship Council (CSC). VRD acknowledges funding from Ramón y Cajal fellowship (RYC-2012-10970). BTW was supported by the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments-Tropics, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. DJC acknowledges funding from the National Science Centre, Poland (NN309 713340). WRLA was supported in part by NSF DEB 1714972.

As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.