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In the context of climate warming, the rising risk of flash droughts in Central Asia (CA) remains inadequately understood in terms of their specific impacts on diverse regional ecosystems. Hence, this study employs the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and the rate of soil moisture (SM) intensification to identify varying evaporative demand flash droughts (EDFD) and SM flash droughts (SMFD) in CA. It analyzed spatiotemporal patterns and trends of eco-hydrological factors (e.g., SM, potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (AET), gross primary productivity (GPP), and water use efficiency (WUE)), explored the characteristics of flash droughts, and examined the differential responses of WUE to flash droughts across different terrestrial ecosystems in CA. The findings indicated that: (1) SM was notably higher in the western and southeastern CA, with a significant upward trend in the northwestern and central-eastern CA. GPP and WUE significantly increased in central-eastern and southwestern CA ( p  < 0.05). (2) High-intensity EDFD and SMFD events (e.g., EDFD_95 and EDFD_98) frequently occurred in the northern and southeastern CA, with averaging more than 30 occurrences and durations typically extending beyond 2 pentads. (3) In central, western, and southwestern CA, GPP increased following weaker flash droughts but decreased after more severe ones. Agricultural areas showed heightened sensitivity to these changes. However, WUE generally improved with increasing flash drought intensity. WUE of cropland in CA had the highest sensitivity to flash drought. Understanding the responses of diverse ecosystems to flash droughts is essential for the sustainable management of ecological and water resource systems. Highlights WUE, like GPP, increased significantly in central, eastern, and southwestern CA. GPP in agricultural areas was more sensitive to flash drought. WUE increased with flash drought intensity, greatest increase seen in cropland.

Flash droughts, characterized by their abrupt onset and rapid intensification, are predicted to increase in frequency and severity under global warming. Understanding the incidence and progression of a flash drought and its impact on maize growth is crucial for maize production to withstand flash drought events. This study used the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) method to evaluate the incidence of summer drought in Liaoning during the period 1961–2020. It examined the incidence and characteristics of summer flash droughts in Liaoning Province in the period of 1961–2020 and evaluated the factors responsible and the impact on maize during the critical development period. The ratio of the number of stations recording a disaster to total number of stations (IOC) curve, i.e., the ratio of the number of stations recording disasters and total stations, for summer flash droughts in Liaoning showed an upward trend during the period of 1961–2020, with large-scale, regional, and local flash droughts occurring in 8, 10, and 31 years, respectively. Summer flash droughts in Liaoning were mainly in the extreme drought category and ranged in frequency from 10% to 20% in most areas. Before the flash drought occurrence in three typical years (1989, 1997, and 2018), a precipitation deficit without large-scale high-temperature events was observed, and the cumulative water deficit caused the flash drought. Regional or large-scale high-temperature events were often accompanied by flash droughts, and the drought intensified rapidly, owing to the influence of heat waves and water deficits. Summer flash droughts caused a reduction in total primary productivity (GPP) of maize by more than 20% in most areas in the three typical years. The yield reduction rate in 1989, 1997, and 2018, was 27.6%, 26.4%, and 5%, respectively. The degree of decline in maize productivity and yield was associated with the onset and duration of the flash drought. The atmospheric conditions of summer flash droughts were characterized by high-pressure anomalies and atmospheric subsidence, which were unconducive for precipitation but conducive to flash drought occurrence. The continuous high-pressure anomaly promoted the maintenance of the flash drought.

Western United States wildfire increases have been generally attributed to warming temperatures, either through effects on winter snowpack or summer evaporation. However, near-surface air temperature and evaporative demand are strongly influenced by moisture availability and these interactions and their role in regulating fire activity have never been fully explored. Here we show that previously unnoted declines in summer precipitation from 1979 to 2016 across 31–45% of the forested areas in the western United States are strongly associated with burned area variations. The number of wetting rain days (WRD; days with precipitation ≥2.54 mm) during the fire season partially regulated the temperature and subsequent vapor pressure deficit (VPD) previously implicated as a primary driver of annual wildfire area burned. We use path analysis to decompose the relative influence of declining snowpack, rising temperatures, and declining precipitation on observed fire activity increases. After accounting for interactions, the net effect of WRD anomalies on wildfire area burned was more than 2.5 times greater than the net effect of VPD, and both the WRD and VPD effects were substantially greater than the influence of winter snowpack. These results suggest that precipitation during the fire season exerts the strongest control on burned area either directly through its wetting effects or indirectly through feedbacks to VPD. If these trends persist, decreases in summer precipitation and the associated summertime aridity increases would lead to more burned area across the western United States with farreaching ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

As climate change drives increased drought in many forested regions, mechanistic understanding of the factors conferring drought tolerance in trees is increasingly important. The dendrochronological record provides a window through which we can understand how tree size and traits shape growth responses to droughts. We analyzed tree-ring records for 12 species in a broadleaf deciduous forest in Virginia (USA) to test hypotheses for how tree height, microenvironment characteristics, and species’ traits shaped drought responses across the three strongest regional droughts over a 60-yr period. Drought tolerance (resistance, recovery, and resilience) decreased with tree height, which was strongly correlated with exposure to higher solar radiation and evaporative demand. The potentially greater rooting volume of larger trees did not confer a resistance advantage, but marginally increased recovery and resilience, in sites with low topographic wetness index. Drought tolerance was greater among species whose leaves lost turgor (wilted) at more negative water potentials and experienced less shrinkage upon desiccation. The tree-ring record reveals that tree height and leaf drought tolerance traits influenced growth responses during and after significant droughts in the meteorological record. As climate change-induced droughts intensify, tall trees with drought-sensitive leaves will be most vulnerable to immediate and longer-term growth reductions.

Irrigation is an important adaptation to reduce crop yield loss due to water stress from both soil water deficit (low soil moisture) and atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit, VPD). Traditionally, irrigation has primarily focused on soil water deficit. Observational evidence demonstrates that stomatal conductance is co-regulated by soil moisture and VPD from water supply and demand aspects. Here we use a validated hydraulically-driven ecosystem model to reproduce the co-regulation pattern. Specifically, we propose a plant-centric irrigation scheme considering water supply-demand dynamics (SDD), and compare it with soil-moisture-based irrigation scheme (management allowable depletion, MAD) for continuous maize cropping systems in Nebraska, United States. We find that, under current climate conditions, the plant-centric SDD irrigation scheme combining soil moisture and VPD, could significantly reduce irrigation water use (−24.0%) while maintaining crop yields, and increase economic profits (+11.2%) and irrigation water productivity (+25.2%) compared with MAD, thus SDD could significantly improve water sustainability. Irrigation is the most important use of water. A newly developed irrigation management scheme leads to a significant reduction in water use and increase in economic gains while maintaining crop yields, presenting opportunities for real-world impacts under current and future climate conditions.

Flash droughts can be distinguished by rapid intensification from near-normal soil moisture to drought conditions in a matter of weeks. Here, we provide the first characterisation of a climatology of flash drought across Australia using a suite of indices. The experiment is designed to capture a range of conditions related to drought: evaporative demand describes the atmospheric demand for moisture from the surface; precipitation, the supply of moisture from the atmosphere to the surface; and evaporative stress, the supply of moisture from the surface relative to the demand from the atmosphere. We show that regardless of the definition, flash droughts occur in all seasons. They can terminate as rapidly as they start, but in some cases can last many months, resulting in a seasonal-scale drought. We show that flash-drought variability and its prevalence can be related to phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, highlighting scope for seasonal-scale prediction. Using a case study in southeast Australia, we show that monitoring precipitation is less useful for capturing the onset of flash drought as it occurs. Instead, indices like the Evaporative Demand Drought Index and Evaporative Stress Index are more useful for monitoring flash-drought development.

The 2010 western Russian heatwave was characterized by historically high surface temperatures that led to devastating impacts on the environment, economy, and society. Recent studies have attributed a quasi-stationary upper level ridge, sensible heat advection, and land-atmosphere temperature coupling as the primary components for the development of the heatwave event. The results in this study reveal that rapid drought intensification occurred prior to the extreme atmospheric conditions associated with the heatwave. The flash drought event developed from a lack of rainfall coupled with enhanced evaporative demand and resulted in rapid desiccation of the land surface. The region that underwent rapid drought intensification acted to prime the land-atmosphere interactions necessary to supplement the excessive surface temperatures experienced during the heatwave event. This area also provided a source region for the advection of warm, dry air to promote heatwave development downwind of the flash drought location. As such, the hydrometeorological extremes associated with the precursor flash drought and heatwave resulted in cascading impacts that severely affected ecosystems, agriculture, and human health. Given the findings from this research, we conclude that flash drought impacts should be expanded beyond vegetative and agricultural applications and should be viewed as a possible precursor and direct forcing for heatwave events and associated impacts.

Three consecutive dry summers in western Europe (2018–2019–2020) had widespread negative impacts on society and ecosystems, and started societal debate on (changing) drought vulnerability and adaptation measures. We investigate the occurrence of multi-year droughts in the Rhine basin, with a focus on event probability in the present and in future warmer climates. Additionally, we investigate the temporally compounding physical drivers of multi-year drought events. A combination of multiple reanalysis datasets and multi-model large ensemble climate model simulations was used to provide a robust analysis of the statistics and physical processes of these rare events. We identify two types of multi-year drought events (consecutive meteorological summer droughts and long-duration hydrological droughts), and show that these occur on average about twice in a 30 year period in the present climate, though natural variability is large (zero to five events can occur in a single 30 year period). Projected decreases in summer precipitation and increases in atmospheric evaporative demand, lead to a doubling of event probability at 1  ∘ C additional global warming relative to present-day and an increase in the average length of events. Consecutive meteorological summer droughts are forced by two, seemingly independent, summers of lower than normal precipitation and higher than normal evaporative demand. The soil moisture response to this temporally compound meteorological forcing has a clear multi-year imprint, resulting in a relatively larger reduction of soil moisture content in the second year of drought, and potentially more severe drought impacts. Long-duration hydrological droughts start with a severe summer drought followed by lingering meteorologically dry conditions. This limits and slows down the hydrological recovery of soil moisture content, leading to long-lasting drought conditions. This initial exploration provides avenues for further investigation of multi-year drought hazard and vulnerability in the region, which is advised given the projected trends and vulnerability of society and ecosystems.

This article developed and implemented a new methodology for calculating the standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI) globally based on the log-logistic distribution to fit the evaporation deficit (ED), the difference between actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and atmospheric evaporative demand (AED). Our findings demonstrate that, regardless of the AED dataset used, a log-logistic distribution most optimally fitted the ED time series. As such, in many regions across the terrestrial globe, the SEDI is insensitive to the AED method used for calculation, with the exception of winter months and boreal regions. The SEDI showed significant correlations (p < 0.05) with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) across a wide range of regions, particularly for short (<3 month) SPEI time scales. This work provides a robust approach for calculating spatially and temporally comparable SEDI estimates, regardless of the climate region and land surface conditions, and it assesses the performance and the applicability of the SEDI to quantify drought severity across varying crop and natural vegetation areas.

Following advances in genetics, genomics, and phenotyping, trait selection in breeding is limited by our ability to understand interactions within the plant and with the environment, and to identify traits of most relevance to the target population of environments. We propose an integrated approach that combines insights from crop modelling, physiology, genetics, and breeding to characterize traits valuable for yield gain in the target population of environments, develop relevant high-throughput phenotyping platforms, and identify genetic controls and their value in production environments. This paper uses transpiration efficiency (biomass produced per unit of water used) as an example of a complex trait of interest to illustrate how the approach can guide modelling, phenotyping, and selection in a breeding programme. We believe that this approach, by integrating insights from diverse disciplines, can increase the resource use efficiency of breeding programmes for improving yield gains in target populations of environments.