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Implementation of wildfire- and climate-adaptation strategies in seasonally dry forests of western North America is impeded by numerous constraints and uncertainties. After more than a century of resource and land use change, some question the need for proactive management, particularly given novel social, ecological, and climatic conditions. To address this question, we first provide a framework for assessing changes in landscape conditions and fire regimes. Using this framework, we then evaluate evidence of change in contemporary conditions relative to those maintained by active fire regimes, i.e., those uninterrupted by a century or more of human-induced fire exclusion. The cumulative results of more than a century of research document a persistent and substantial fire deficit and widespread alterations to ecological structures and functions. These changes are not necessarily apparent at all spatial scales or in all dimensions of fire regimes and forest and nonforest conditions. Nonetheless, loss of the once abundant influence of low- and moderate-severity fires suggests that even the least fire-prone ecosystems may be affected by alteration of the surrounding landscape and, consequently, ecosystem functions. Vegetation spatial patterns in fire-excluded forested landscapes no longer reflect the heterogeneity maintained by interacting fires of active fire regimes. Live and dead vegetation (surface and canopy fuels) is generally more abundant and continuous than before European colonization. As a result, current conditions are more vulnerable to the direct and indirect effects of seasonal and episodic increases in drought and fire, especially under a rapidly warming climate. Long-term fire exclusion and contemporaneous social-ecological influences continue to extensively modify seasonally dry forested landscapes. Management that realigns or adapts fire-excluded conditions to seasonal and episodic increases in drought and fire can moderate ecosystem transitions as forests and human communities adapt to changing climatic and disturbance regimes. As adaptation strategies are developed, evaluated, and implemented, objective scientific evaluation of ongoing research and monitoring can aid differentiation of warranted and unwarranted uncertainties.

Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.

Indigenous land stewardship and mixed-severity fire regimes both promote landscape heterogeneity, and the relationship between them is an emerging area of research. In our study, we reconstructed the historical fire regime of Ne Sextsine, a 5900-ha dry, Douglas fir–dominated forest in the traditional territory of the T’exelc (Williams Lake First Nation) in British Columbia, Canada. Between 1550 and 1982 CE, we found median fire intervals of 18 years at the plot level and 4 years at the study-site level. Ne Sextsine was characterized by an historical mixed-severity fire regime, dominated by frequent, low-severity fires as indicated by fire scars, with infrequent, mixed-severity fires indicated by cohorts. Differentiating low- from mixedseverity plots over time was key to understanding the drivers of the fire regime at Ne Sextsine. Low-severity plots were coincident with areas of highest use by the T’exelc, including winter village sites, summer fishing camps, and travel corridors. The high fire frequency in low-severity plots ceased in the 1870s, following the smallpox epidemic, the forced relocation of Indigenous peoples into small reserves, and the prohibition of Indigenous burning. In contrast, the mixed-severity plots were coincident with areas where forest resources, such as deer or certain berry species, were important. The high fire frequency in the mixed-severity plots continued until the 1920s when industrial-scale grazing and logging began, facilitated by the establishment of a nearby railway. T’exelc oral histories and archeological evidence at Ne Sextsine speak to varied land stewardship, reflected in the spatiotemporal complexity of low- and mixed-severity fire plots. Across Ne Sextsine, 63% of cohorts established and persisted in the absence of fire after colonial impacts beginning in the 1860s, resulting in a dense, homogeneous landscape that no longer supports T’exelc values and is more likely to burn at uncharacteristic high severities. This nuanced understanding of the Indigenous contribution to a mixed-severity fire regime is critical for advancing proactive fire mitigation that is ecoculturally relevant and guided by Indigenous expertise.

Dendroecological studies of historical tree recruitment patterns suggest mixed‐severity fire effects are common in Douglas‐fir/western hemlock forests of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA, but empirical studies linking observed fire severity to tree regeneration response are needed to expand our understanding into the functional role of fire in this forest type. Recent increases in mixed‐severity fires offered this opportunity, so we quantified the abundance, spatial distribution, species richness, and community composition of regenerating trees across a mixed‐severity fire gradient (unburned–high‐severity fire) 10 and 22 yr post‐fire, and use our results to inform a discussion of fire's functional role in western Oregon Cascades Douglas‐fir forests. Regeneration abundance was unimodal across the fire severity gradient such that the greatest mean abundance followed moderate‐severity fire (25–75% basal area mortality). Similarly, the greatest number of species was present within the most 25‐m2 regeneration quadrants (most extensive distribution) following moderate‐severity fire, relative to any other fire severity class. On average, species richness also exhibited a unimodal distribution across the severity gradient, increasing by 100% in stands that experienced moderate‐severity fire relative to unburned forests or following high‐severity fire, as predicted by the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis. Several distinct regeneration communities emerged across the fire severity gradient, including early seral tree communities indicative of those observed in initial and relay floristics successional models for this forest type. Most significantly, moderate‐severity fire alters successional trajectories and facilitates the establishment of a more diverse tree regeneration community than observed following low‐ or high‐severity fire. These communities are reflective of the diverse overstory communities commonly encountered throughout this forest type. The emergence of these diverse forests is unlikely to develop or persist in the absence of moderate‐severity fire effects, and may be perpetuated longer by recurring moderate‐severity fire relative to experiencing stand replacing fire. Therefore, moderate‐severity fire may be the most functionally important fire effect in Douglas‐fir forests and should be better represented in successional models and more prominent in ecologically based fire and forest management.

Ecological disturbance regimes across the globe are being altered via direct and indirect human influences. Biodiversity loss at multiple scales can be a direct outcome of these shifts. Fire, especially in dry forests, is an ecological disturbance that is experiencing dramatic changes due to climate change, fire suppression, increased human population in fire‐prone areas, and alterations to vegetation composition and structure. Dry western conifer forests that historically experienced frequent, low‐severity fires are now increasingly burning at high severity. Relatively little work has been done looking at the effects of this novel disturbance type on affected plant communities, and little is known about how these impacts change over time. To fill in these knowledge gaps, we examined a fire that burned in a yellow pine and mixed conifer forest in the central Sierra Nevada in California, USA. We sampled at five time steps across the nine years following the fire (1, 3, 5, 8, and 9 years postfire). We found a generally unimodal relationship between fire severity and plant alpha and gamma diversity, but found that areas that burned at high severity supported progressively lower plant diversity as time since fire increased. Similarly, beta diversity decreased drastically through time for the high‐severity areas, while remaining more static in the other severity classes. The combination of these findings indicates that significant floristic homogenization can result from high‐severity fire in this ecosystem type. We also saw consistently lower diversity in unburned areas in comparison to area burned at low and moderate severity, underlining that both lack of fire and high‐severity fire can have negative impacts on postfire plant diversity. Unburned areas that experienced forest thinning after the first sample year saw an increase in plant diversity over time, suggesting that some—but not all—of the effects of fire on plant diversity can be approximated through forest management.

Southwestern ponderosa pine forests are vulnerable to fire-driven conversion in a warming and drying climate, yet little is known about what kinds of ecological communities may replace them. To characterize postfire vegetation trajectories and their environmental determinants, plant assemblages (361 sample plots including 229 vascular plant species, surveyed in 2017) were sampled within eight burns that occurred between 2000 and 2003. I used nonmetric multidimensional scaling, k-means clustering, principal component analysis, and random forest models to assess relationships between vegetation pattern, topographic and landscape factors, and gridded climate data. I describe seven postfire community types, including regenerating forests of ponderosa pine, aspen, and mixed conifers, shrub-dominated communities of Gambel oak and mixed species, and herb-dominated communities of native bunchgrasses and mixtures of ruderal, native, and nonnative species. Forest recovery was generally associated with cooler, mesic sites in proximity to forested refugia; shifts toward scrub and grassland types were most common in warmer, dryer locations distant from forested refugia. Under future climate scenarios, models project decreases in postfire forest recovery and increases in nonforest vegetation. However, forest to nonforest conversion was partially offset under a scenario of reduced burn severity and increased retention of forested refugia, highlighting important management opportunities. Burning trends in the southwestern United States suggest that postfire vegetation will occupy a growing landscape fraction, compelling renewed management focus on these areas and paradigm shifts that accommodate ecological change. I illustrate how management decisions around resisting, accepting, or directing change could be informed by an understanding of processes and patterns of postfire community variation and likely future trajectories.

Aim Fire can strongly influence ecosystem function, and human activities are disrupting fire activity at the global scale. Ecological theory and a growing body of literature suggest that a mixed severity fire regime promotes biodiversity in western North America. Some researchers advocate the use of pyrodiversity (i.e. heterogeneity in aspects of the fire regime such as time since fire or severity) as a conservation index to be maximized. Others caution against this approach arguing that the index oversimplifies fire–biodiversity interactions across trophic, spatial and temporal scales. We evaluated the effects of several landscape‐scale pyrodiversity indices, and their severity and time‐since‐fire components, on species richness of forest carnivores. Location Northern California, United States. Methods We gathered data on fire history and mammal occurrence from camera trap surveys at 1,451 sites across Northern California public and private forestlands during 2009–2018. We used these data to model the effects of fire severity diversity, and its components (i.e. low, moderate and high severity wildfires), on carnivore richness at short (10 years) and longer (25 years) timeframes. We repeated the modelling using a measure of time‐since‐fire diversity and its components (<10 years, 10–20 years, 20–30 years, 30–40 years, 40–100 years). We used Bayesian multispecies occupancy modelling to correct for imperfect measurement of species richness. Results We found that carnivore richness was highest at locations with intermediate fire severity diversity (0.46, 90%CI: 0.40–0.52) calculated using Simpson's Measure of Evenness (range: 0–1) for the 10‐year timeframe, and the results were almost identical yet less precise for the longer timeframe. When we separated fire severity diversity into its components, we found that carnivore richness was highest at locations where 17% (90%CI: 4–20) of the landscape had experienced low severity burns over the past decade. In contrast, we found no association between time‐since‐fire diversity and carnivore richness, however, an intermediate amount of one of the components (e.g., the total amount of fire in the past 10 years) was positively associated with carnivore richness. Our results are consistent with a mixed severity fire regime wherein there is a greater extent of low severity than high severity fire. Main conclusions Overall our results suggest that carnivores would benefit from landscapes managed for greater, but not maximal, fire severity diversity. Our results also suggest that prescribed, low severity burns may provide ecological services to wildlife not otherwise provided by silviculture in a managed forest landscape.

The frequency, extent, and severity of wildfire strongly influence the structure and function of ecosystems. Mixed‐severity fire regimes are the most complex and least understood fire regimes, and variability of fire severity can occur at fine spatial and temporal scales, depending on previous disturbance history, topography, fuel continuity, vegetation type, and weather. During high fire weather in 2013, a complex of mixed‐severity wildfires burned across multiple ownerships within the Klamath‐Siskiyou ecoregion of southwestern Oregon where northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) demographics were studied since 1990. A year prior to these wildfires, high‐resolution, remotely sensed forest structural information derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data was acquired for an area that fully covered the extent of these fires. To quantify wildfire impact on northern spotted owl nesting/roosting habitat, we fit a relative habitat suitability model based on pre‐fire locations used for nesting and roosting, and forest structure variables developed from 2012 lidar data. Our pre‐fire habitat suitability model predicted nesting/roosting locations well, and variable response functions followed known resource selection patterns. These forests had typical characteristics of old‐growth forest, with high density of large live trees, high canopy cover, and complex structure in canopy height. We projected the pre‐fire model onto lidar data collected two months post‐fire to produce a post‐fire suitability map, which indicated that >93% of pre‐fire habitat that burned at high severity was no longer suitable forest for nesting and roosting. We also quantified the probability that pre‐fire nesting/roosting habitat would burn at each severity class (unburned/low, low, moderate, high). Pre‐fire nesting/roosting habitat had lower probability of burning at moderate or high severity compared to other forest types under high burning conditions. Our results indicate that northern spotted owl habitat can buffer the negative effects of climate change by enhancing biodiversity and resistance to high‐severity fires, which are predicted to increase in frequency and extent with climate change. Within this region, protecting large blocks of old forests could be an integral component of management plans that successfully maintain variability of forests in this mixed‐ownership and mixed‐severity fire regime landscape and enhance conservation of many species.

Aim: Wildfire is often considered more severe now than historically in dry forests of the western United States. Tree-ring reconstructions, which suggest that historical dry forests were park-like with large, old trees maintained by low-severity fires, are from small, scattered studies. To overcome this limitation, we developed spatially comprehensive reconstructions across 927,000 ha in four landscapes, using a new method based on land surveys from c. 1880. Location: Dry forests of the western United States. Methods: We reconstructed forest structure for four large dry-forest landscapes using forest descriptions and tree data from historical land surveys. Using multiple elements of historical forest structure from this study along with corroborating information from tree-ring studies, we were able to interpret past forest dynamics. Hypotheses concerning historical structure and dynamics were then tested. Results: These reconstructions show that dry forests were structurally variable, containing from 20 to over 1000 trees ha -1 and some dense understoreys of shrubs and small trees. Park-like stands of large trees maintained by low-severity fire predominated only in parts of the study landscapes. Only 3, 12, 40 and 62% of the four landscapes fit a low-severity fire model; 38—97% had evidence of higher-severity (mixed- and high-severity) fire. Some large modern wildfires (e.g. Rodeo-Chediski), perceived as catastrophic, had fire severity congruent with historical variability. Main conclusions: Spatially extensive reconstructions from the late 1800s show that these forests were structurally variable, including areas of dense forests and understorey trees and shrubs, and fires varied in severity, including 15—65% high-severity fire. A set of laws, policies and initiatives that aim to uniformly reduce fuels and fire severity is likely to move many of these forests outside their historical range of variability with adverse effects on biological diversity. Macroscale survey-based reconstructions and palaeoecological studies reveal that higher-severity fires were and are a part of the normal dynamics of dry forests.