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Forests provide important ecosystem services, and protected areas around the world are intended to reduce human disturbance on forests. The question is how forest cover is changing in different parts of the world, why some areas are more frequently disturbed, and if protected areas are effective in limiting anthropogenic forest disturbance. The Carpathians are Eastern Europe's largest contiguous forest ecosystem and are a hotspot of biodiversity. Eastern Europe has undergone dramatic changes in political and socioeconomic structures since 1990, when socialistic state economies transitioned toward market economies. However, the effects of the political and economic transition on Carpathian forests remain largely unknown. Our goals were to compare post-socialist forest disturbance and to assess the effectiveness of protected areas in the border triangle of Poland, Slovakia, and Ukraine, to better understand the role of broadscale political and socioeconomic factors. Forest disturbances were assessed using the forest disturbance index derived from Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+ images from 1978 to 2000. Our results showed increased harvesting in all three countries (up to 1.8 times) in 1988-1994, right after the system change. Forest disturbance rates differed markedly among countries (disturbance rates in Ukraine were 4.5 times higher than in Poland, and those in Slovakia were 4.3 times higher than in Poland), and in Ukraine, harvests tended to occur at higher elevations. Forest fragmentation increased in all three countries but experienced a stronger increase in Slovakia and Ukraine (~5% decrease in core forest) than in Poland. Protected areas were most effective in Poland and in Slovakia, where harvesting rates dropped markedly (by nearly an order of magnitude in Slovakia) after protected areas were designated. In Ukraine, harvesting rates inside and outside protected areas did not differ appreciably, and harvests were widespread immediately before the designation of protected areas. In summary, the socioeconomic changes in Eastern Europe that occurred since 1990 had strong effects on forest disturbance. Differences in disturbance rates among countries appear to be most closely related to broadscale socioeconomic conditions, forest management practices, forest policies, and the strength of institutions. We suggest that such factors may be equally important in other regions of the world.

Key Message Forest attribute maps generated using national forest inventory and remote sensing data can be used to quantify forest attributes (i.e., growing stock volume, basal area) affected by disturbance events (like bark-beetle induced damage) through small area estimation techniques. Our results showed that mature stands were more sensitive to bark-beetle infestation than younger ones. Context Recurrent drought episodes in Europe weakened trees and promoted biotic disturbances such as bark-beetle outbreaks, heavily affecting spruce ( Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and fir stands (Abies alba Mill.). While remote sensing data make it possible to assess and monitor the spatial extent of outbreaks, the assessment of the actual impact on forest attributes is still lacking. Aims We propose a small area estimation approach to assess the amount of forest attributes impacted in outbreak areas during the period 2021–2022 using forest attribute maps. Methods We produced forest attribute maps using National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots, and auxiliary data from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Sentinel-2, acquired in 2021. The maps were generated using a general k-nearest neighbour model for all forest species (general model) and a model specific to spruce and fir only (specific model). Small estimation domains, defined as bark-beetle outbreak areas, were obtained from an independent source using time series of Sentinel-2 data (2018–2022). Small area estimations were generated using bootstrapped model-predictions with reliability assessment. Results In total, 1137 ha of forest area was affected by bark-beetle outbreaks during 2021–2022, corresponding to 494,000 m 3 (general model) and 505,000 m 3 (specific model) of growing stock volume, respectively. The associated errors were 2.2% for the general model and 2.6% for the specific model. In the specific model, the estimated mean growing stock volume in outbreak areas for 2021 and 2022 was 441.5 m 3 ha⁻ 1 , which was 64.5 m 3 ha⁻ 1 higher than the estimated mean volume of spruce and fir for the whole area (377 m 3 ha⁻ 1 ). This suggests that mature stands were more sensitive to infestation. Conclusion Regular updates to forest attribute maps, possibly every third year using photogrammetric methods, could improve monitoring of forest attributes impacted by disturbances such as drought and bark-beetle outbreaks and contribute to forest decision making and planning.

Mature forests provide important wildlife habitat and support critical ecosystem functions globally. Within the dry conifer forests of the western United States, past management and fire exclusion have contributed to forest conditions that are susceptible to increasingly severe wildfire and drought. We evaluated declines in conifer forest cover in the southern Sierra Nevada of California during a decade of record disturbance by using spatially comprehensive forest structure estimates, wildfire perimeter data, and the eDaRT forest disturbance tracking algorithm. Primarily due to the combination of wildfires, drought, and drought-associated beetle epidemics, 30% of the region’s conifer forest extent transitioned to nonforest vegetation during 2011–2020. In total, 50% of mature forest habitat and 85% of high density mature forests either transitioned to lower density forest or nonforest vegetation types. California spotted owl protected activity centers (PAC) experienced greater canopy cover decline (49% of 2011 cover) than non-PAC areas (42% decline). Areas with high initial canopy cover and without tall trees were most vulnerable to canopy cover declines, likely explaining the disproportionate declines of mature forest habitat and within PACs. Drought and beetle attack caused greater cumulative declines than areas where drought and wildfire mortality overlapped, and both types of natural disturbance far outpaced declines attributable to mechanical activities. Drought mortality that disproportionately affects large conifers is particularly problematic to mature forest specialist species reliant on large trees. However, patches of degraded forests within wildfire perimeters were larger with greater core area than those outside burned areas, and remnant forest habitats were more fragmented within burned perimeters than those affected by drought and beetle mortality alone. The percentage of mature forest that survived and potentially benefited from lower severity wildfire increased over time as the total extent of mature forest declined. These areas provide some opportunity for improved resilience to future disturbances, but strategic management interventions are likely also necessary to mitigate worsening mega-disturbances. Remaining dry mature forest habitat in California may be susceptible to complete loss in the coming decades without a rapid transition from a conservation paradigm that attempts to maintain static conditions to one that manages for sustainable disturbance dynamics.

Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by continuing climate change and increasing disturbance activity, but how forest dynamics will respond remains highly uncertain. Here, we argue that a short time window after disturbance (i.e., a discrete event that disrupts prevailing ecosystem structure and composition and releases resources) is pivotal for future forest development. Trees that establish during this reorganization phase can shape forest structure and composition for centuries, providing operational early indications of forest change. While forest change has been fruitfully studied through a lens of resilience, profound ecological changes can be masked by a resilience versus regime shift dichotomy. We present a framework for characterizing the full spectrum of change after disturbance, analyzing forest reorganization along dimensions of forest structure (number, size, and spatial arrangement of trees) and composition (identity and diversity of tree species). We propose four major pathways through which forest cover can persist but reorganize following disturbance: resilience (no change in structure and composition), restructuring (structure changes but composition does not), reassembly (composition changes but structure does not), and replacement (structure and composition both change). Regime shifts occur when vegetation structure and composition are altered so profoundly that the emerging trajectory leads to nonforest. We identify fundamental processes underpinning forest reorganization which, if disrupted, deflect ecosystems away from resilience. To understand and predict forest reorganization, assessing these processes and the traits modulating them is crucial. A new wave of experiments, measurements, and models emphasizing the reorganization phase will further the capacity to anticipate future forest dynamics.

Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001–2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes. Climate change may impact forest disturbances, though local variability is high. Here, Sommerfeld et al. show that disturbance patterns across the temperate biome vary with agents and tree traits, yet large disturbances are consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions.

Large projected increases in forest disturbance pose a major threat to future wood fiber supply and carbon sequestration in the cold-limited, Canadian boreal forest ecosystem. Given the large sensitivity of tree growth to temperature, warming-induced increases in forest productivity have the potential to reduce these threats, but research efforts to date have yielded contradictory results attributed to limited data availability, methodological biases, and regional variability in forest dynamics. Here, we apply a machine learning algorithm to an unprecedented network of over 1 million tree growth records (1958 to 2018) from 20,089 permanent sample plots distributed across both Canada and the United States, spanning a 16.5 °C climatic gradient. Fitted models were then used to project the near-term (2050 s time period) growth of the six most abundant tree species in the Canadian boreal forest. Our results reveal a large, positive effect of increasing thermal energy on tree growth for most of the target species, leading to 20.5 to 22.7% projected gains in growth with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains, which peak in the colder and wetter regions of the boreal forest, suggests that warming-induced growth increases should no longer be considered marginal but may in fact significantly offset some of the negative impacts of projected increases in drought and wildfire on wood supply and carbon sequestration and have major implications on ecological forecasts and the global economy.

A humid tropical forest disturbance alert using Sentinel-1 radar data is presented for the Congo Basin. Radar satellite signals can penetrate through clouds, allowing Sentinel-1 to provide gap-free observations for the tropics consistently every 6-12 days at 10 m spatial scale. In the densely cloud covered Congo Basin, this represents a major advantage for the rapid detection of small-scale forest disturbances such as subsistence agriculture and selective logging. Alerts were detected with latest available Sentinel-1 images and results are presented from January 2019 to July 2020. We mapped 4 million disturbance events during this period, totalling 1.4 million ha with nearly 80% of events smaller than 0.5 ha. Monthly distribution of alert totals varied widely across the Congo Basin countries and can be linked to regional differences in wet and dry season cycles, with more forest disturbances in the dry season. Results indicated high user's and producer's accuracies and the rapid confirmation of alerts within a few weeks. Our disturbance alerts provide confident detection of events larger than or equal to 0.2 ha but do not include smaller events, which suggests that disturbance rates in the Congo Basin are even higher than presented in this study. The new alert product can help to better study the forest dynamics in the Congo Basin with improved spatial and temporal detail and near real-time detections, and highlights the value of dense Sentinel-1 time series data for large-area tropical forest monitoring. The research contributes to the Global Forest Watch initiative in providing timely and accurate information to support a wide range of stakeholders in sustainable forest management and law enforcement. The alerts are available via the https://www.globalforestwatch.org and http://radd-alert.wur.nl.

Forest degradation affects forest structure, composition and diversity, carbon stocks, functionality and ecosystem processes. It is known to contribute significantly to global carbon emissions, but there is uncertainty about the relative size of these emissions. This is largely because while deforestation, or long-term forest clearance, has been successfully monitored using remote sensing (RS) technology, there are more difficulties in using RS to quantify forest degradation, in which the area remains as forest, but with an altered structure, composition and function. A major challenge in estimating emissions from forest degradation is that in addition to identifying the areas affected, the amount of biomass loss over time in a given area must be estimated. Contributory challenges to mapping, monitoring and quantifying forest degradation include the complexity of the concept of degradation, limitations in the spatial and temporal resolution of RS sensors, and the inherent complexity of detecting degradation caused by different disturbance processes and forest uses. We take the innovative approach of dividing the studies reviewed by the specific type of forest disturbance that is being monitored (selective logging, fires, shifting cultivation and fuelwood extraction etc.), since these different activities will result in different signatures in the canopy and thus may determine the type of RS technology that may best be applied.

Context Growing evidence suggests that climate change could substantially alter forest disturbances. Interactions between individual disturbance agents are a major component of disturbance regimes, yet how interactions contribute to their climate sensitivity remains largely unknown. Objectives Here, our aim was to assess the climate sensitivity of disturbance interactions, focusing on wind and bark beetle disturbances. Methods We developed a process-based model of bark beetle disturbance, integrated into the dynamic forest landscape model iLand (already including a detailed model of wind disturbance). We evaluated the integrated model against observations from three wind events and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak, affecting 530.2 ha (3.8 %) of a mountain forest landscape in Austria between 2007 and 2014. Subsequently, we conducted a factorial experiment determining the effect of changes in climate variables on the area disturbed by wind and bark beetles separately and in combination. Results iLand was well able to reproduce observations with regard to area, temporal sequence, and spatial pattern of disturbance. The observed disturbance dynamics was strongly driven by interactions, with 64.3 % of the area disturbed attributed to interaction effects. A +4 °C warming increased the disturbed area by +264.7 % and the area-weighted mean patch size by +1794.3 %. Interactions were found to have a ten times higher sensitivity to temperature changes than main effects, considerably amplifying the climate sensitivity of the disturbance regime. Conclusions Disturbance interactions are a key component of the forest disturbance regime. Neglecting interaction effects can lead to a substantial underestimation of the climate change sensitivity of disturbance regimes.

Abstract Abstract In coniferous western forests, recent widespread tree mortality provided opportunities to test the long-held theory that forest cover loss increases water yield. We reviewed 78 studies of hydrologic response to standing-replacing (severe wildfire, harvest) or nonstand-replacing (drought, insects, low-severity wildfire) disturbances, and reassessed the question: Does water yield or snowpack increase after forest disturbance? Collective results indicate that postdisturbance streamflow and snowpack may increase, not change, or even decrease, and illuminate factors that may help improve predictability of hydrologic response to disturbance. Contrary to the expectation that tree mortality reduces evapotranspiration, making more water available as runoff, postdisturbance evapotranspiration sometimes increased—particularly following nonstand-replacing disturbance—because of (a) increased evaporation resulting from higher subcanopy radiation, and (b) increased transpiration resulting from rapid postdisturbance growth. Postdisturbance hydrologic response depends on vegetation structure, climate, and topography, and new hypotheses continue to be formulated and tested in this rapidly evolving discipline.