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The past decade has brought an increasing recognition to the importance of pension systems to the economic stability of nations and the security of their aging populations. During this time, the World Bank has taken a leading role in addressing this challenge through its support for pension reforms around the world. Old-Age Income Support in the 21st Century attempts to explain current policy thinking and update the World Bank’s perspective on pension reform. The Bank has been involved in pension reforms in nearly 60 countries, and the demand for its support continues to grow. This book incorporates lessons learned from recent Bank experiences and research that have significantly increased knowledge and insight regarding how best to proceed in the future. The book has a comprehensive introduction and two main parts. Part I presents the conceptual underpinnings for the Bank’s thinking on pension systems and reforms, including structure of Bank lending in this area. Part II highlights key design and implementation issues where it signals areas of confidence and areas for further research and experience, and includes a section on regional reform experiences, including Latin American and Europe and Central Asia. This book will be of interest to Bank clients, the international community, and anyone interested in pension systems and reform.

China is at a critical juncture in its economic transition. A comprehensive reform of its pension and social security systems is an essential element of a strategy aimed toward achieving a harmonious society and sustainable development. Among policy makers, a widely held view is that the approach to pension provision and reform efforts piloted over the last 10-15 years is insufficient to enable China's economy and population to realize its development objectives in the years ahead. This volume suggests a national pension system that no longer distinguishes along urban and rural locational or hukou lines yet takes account of the diverse nature of employment relations and capacity of individuals to make contributions. This volume is organized as follows: the main text outlines this vision, focusing on summarizing the key features of a proposed long-term pension system. It first examines key trends motivating the need for reform then outlines the proposed three-pillar design and the rationale behind the design choices. It then moves on to examine financing options. The text continues by discussing institutional reform issues, and the final section concludes. The six appendixes provide additional analytical detail supporting the findings in the main text. The pension system design can play an important role in supporting or constraining such economic and demographic transitions: 1) fragmentation and lack of portability of rights hinder labor market efficiency and contribute to coverage gaps; 2) multiple schemes for salaried workers, civil servants, and, in some areas, migrants similarly impact labor markets; 3) legacy costs that are largely financed through current pension contributions weaken incentives for compliance and accurate wage reporting; 4) very limited risk pooling and interurban resource transfers limit the insurance function of the urban pension system and create spatial disparities in old-age income protection; 5) low retirement ages affect incentives and benefits and undermine fiscal sustainability; and 6) relatively low returns on individual accounts result in replacement rates significantly less than anticipated while at the macro level, are likely to inhibit wider efforts to stimulate higher domestic consumption.

Purpose: The objective of this work is to highlight the various reform measures to be undertaken in order to ensure the sustainability of general pension schemes, in particular those aimed at promoting the partial capitalization of pensions in Algeria.   Theoretical framework: Like most countries in the world, the Algerian pension system, which is managed on a PAYG basis, is currently facing major funding problems. Indeed, despite the measures taken to reduce its financial deficit, the latter has persisted since 2013 and has been estimated at almost 2.7 billion USD at the end of 2022. In fact, if measures to lay the foundations for sustained growth, which creates jobs (with improved inclusion in social security), are taken by the government, the system could regain its balance in the short and medium term. However, the problem of population ageing, which could occur in a few decades, reminds the urgent need for structural reforms.   Design/Methodology/Approach: The design of the study is descriptive and analytical. Data for this study were collected from official Algerian sources, namely the NRF and the NOS, while content analysis was conducted by interpreting these data.   Findings: The results of this study show that the Algerian public authorities have taken many measures in recent years to fill the deficit in the pension system, of which the repeal at the end of 2016 of the early and unconditional age pensions with possibility of maintaining the activity until the age of 65, the establishment of the NPRF in 2006, the introduction of additional revenue from customs duties applied to goods import operations from 2020, and the introduction of the NSSF in 2021. Nevertheless, this would in no way escape the insolvency of the pension scheme, hence the need for a structural reform that targets in addition to parametric changes, the introduction of a capitalization dose complementing the current pension system (supplementary pension) for its rebalancing in the short, medium and long term.   Conclusion: the availability of substantial oil revenues may downplay the importance of the financial problems facing the Algerian pension system and their impact on budget stability (according to the NRF, the fund’s deficit stood at 376 billion DZD in 2022 and could reach 1.200 billion DZD in 2030), whereas this oil boom should be used to finance the transition by adopting a partially funded pension scheme. At the same time, this would require more efforts to boost the stock market in order to create an environment conducive to the establishment and development of this funded pillar.

All countries in the former transition economies of Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe have undertaken public pension reforms of varying depth and orientation, often with the support of the World Bank. Although the reformed public pension schemes provide broad benefit adequacy, in most cases additional measures are needed to achieve fiscal sustainability in an aging society. 'Adequacy of Retirement Income after Pension Reforms in Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe: Eight Country Studies' assesses the benefit adequacy of the reformed pension systems for eight countries—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia—to identify policy gaps and options. The authors identify the motivations for reform against the backdrop of the trend toward multi-pillar arrangements, document key provisions, and compare them in the context of the World Bank's five-pillar paradigm for pension reform. They then evaluate the sustainability and adequacy of reformed pension systems and provide recommendations to address gaps and take advantage of opportunities for further reforms. The case studies and summary suggest the following broad policy conclusions: • Fiscal sustainability has improved in most study countries, but few are fully prepared for the inevitability of population aging. • The linkage between contributions and benefits has been strengthened, and pension system designs are better suited to market conditions • Levels of income replacement are generally adequate for all but some categories of workers (including those with intermittent formal sector employment or low lifetime wages), and addressing their needs requires initiatives that go beyond pension policy. • Further reforms should focus on extending labor force participation by the elderly to avoid benefit cuts that could undermine adequacy and very high contribution rates that could discourage formal sector employment. • More decisive financial market reforms are needed for funded provisions to deliver on the expectations of participants and keep funded pensions safe. This book will be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and everyone interested in the topic of pensions in the region, and beyond.

This paper stems from the observation that there are two worldwide trends, pension reform and population ageing, and asks whether the two may be related. Exploring the cases of pension reform in different countries, we find that, although they are very different, the cases share a common characteristic: they shift risks away from workers towards those who are retired. Furthermore, population ageing, by increasing the weight of the elderly relative to working generations, raises the price of intergenerational risk sharing. Combining these findings, we argue and show formally that pension reform can be seen as a welfare-best response to population ageing.

Funded pensions have become a key focus in strategies to ensure supplementary income during retirement. This paper explores two distinct approaches for estimating replacement rates: a deep learning model and a Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). Using synthetic datasets for training, the deep learning model delivered accurate replacement rate predictions when benchmarked against exact solutions. On the other hand, the FIS approach, which leverages expert insights and practical experience, produced encouraging results but revealed opportunities for refining the definitions of intervals and linguistic categories. To bridge the strengths of both approaches, we introduce a conceptual integration using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), providing a multi-criteria decision-support framework that combines predictive accuracy from neural networks with the interpretability of fuzzy systems. The findings emphasize the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) methods, including neural networks and fuzzy logic, in advancing pension planning. While these techniques remain underutilized in this area, they hold significant promise for developing decision-support systems, particularly in big data contexts. Such systems can offer initial replacement rate estimates, serving as valuable inputs for experts during the decision-making process. Additionally, the paper suggests future research into multi-criteria decision analysis to improve decision-making within multi-pillar pension frameworks.

Early in the twenty-first century, the Baltic states reformed their retirement pension systems by introducing funded pensions (second and third pillars) alongside the existing pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system. These reforms aimed to diversify and potentially increase retirees' income and reduce the fiscal strain on public finances. This study evaluates the impact of the second pension pillar on individual incomes at retirement in the Baltic states, comparing benefits (additional retirement income) and costs (reductions in PAYG pensions and deferred consumption). The analysis considers low, medium and high-risk investment scenarios, finding positive outcomes for most participants in Lithuania and Estonia, but unprofitable ones in Latvia.

Formal pension systems are an important means of reducing poverty among the aged. In recent years, however, pension reform has become a pressing matter, as demographic aging, poor administration, early retirement, and unaffordable benefits have strained pension balances and overall public finances.Pension systems have become a source of macroeconomic instability, a constraint to economic growth, and an ineffective and/or inequitable provider of retirement income.

The individual account-based but unfunded approach to mandated public pension systems is a reform benchmark for all pension schemes, promising fair and financially sustainable benefits. Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes originated in Italy and Sweden in the 1990s, were then adopted by Latvia, Norway, and Poland, envisaged but not implemented in various other countries, such as Egypt and Russia, and remain under discussion in many nations around the world, such as China and France. In its complete form, the approach also comprises budget-financed basic income provisions and mandated or voluntary funded provisions. Volume 1 of this book offers an assessment of countries that were early adopters before addressing key aspects of policy implementation and design review, including how best to combine basic income provisions with an NDC scheme, how to deal with heterogeneity in longevity, and how to adjust NDC scheme design and labor market policies to deliver on reform expectations. Volume 2 addresses a second set of issues, including the gender pension gap and what family policies can do about it within the NDC framework, labor market issues and administrative challenges of NDC schemes and how countries are coping, the role of communication in these pension schemes, the complexity of cross-border pension taxation, and much more. Progress and Challenges of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes is the third in a series of books analyzing the progress, challenges, and adjustment options of this reform revolution for mandated public pension systems. ‘Pension reform is a major issue in many countries. The development of the nonfinancial defined contribution pension plan in the 90’s was a major advance in pension design. By reporting actual country experiences and exploring properties of plan designs, this latest collection of essays is a valuable contribution, well worth reading.’ Peter Diamond Professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 2010 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences ‘A highly stimulating publication for policy makers and researchers alike. It pushes the analytical frontier for policy challenges that all public pension schemes are confronted with but that the nonfinancial defined contribution approach promises to handle best.’ Noriyuki Takayama President, Research Institute for Policies on Pension and Aging, Tokyo, and professor emeritus, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo ‘In a changing world where pensions are more than ever linked to labor markets, communication tools, and flexibility considerations, this anthology provides a unique up-to-date analysis of nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes. By mixing international experiences and theoretical studies, it demonstrates the high adaptability of such pension schemes to changing social challenges.’ Pierre Devolder Professor of Finance and Actuarial Sciences, Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium

The individual account-based but unfunded approach to mandated public pension systems is a reform benchmark for all pension schemes, promising fair and financially sustainable benefits. Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes originated in Italy and Sweden in the 1990s, were then adopted by Latvia, Norway, and Poland, envisaged but not implemented in various other countries, such as Egypt and Russia, and remain under discussion in many nations around the world, such as China and France. In its complete form, the approach also comprises budget-financed basic income provisions and mandated or voluntary funded provisions. Volume 1 of this book offers an assessment of countries that were early adopters before addressing key aspects of policy implementation and design review, including how best to combine basic income provisions with an NDC scheme, how to deal with heterogeneity in longevity, and how to adjust NDC scheme design and labor market policies to deliver on reform expectations. Volume 2 addresses a second set of issues, including the gender pension gap and what family policies can do about it within the NDC framework, labor market issues and administrative challenges of NDC schemes and how countries are coping, the role of communication in these pension schemes, the complexity of cross-border pension taxation, and much more. Progress and Challenges of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes is the third in a series of books analyzing the progress, challenges, and adjustment options of this reform revolution for mandated public pension systems. ‘Pension reform is a major issue in many countries. The development of the nonfinancial defined contribution pension plan in the 90’s was a major advance in pension design. By reporting actual country experiences and exploring properties of plan designs, this latest collection of essays is a valuable contribution, well worth reading.’ Peter Diamond Professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 2010 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences ‘A highly stimulating publication for policy makers and researchers alike. It pushes the analytical frontier for policy challenges that all public pension schemes are confronted with but that the nonfinancial defined contribution approach promises to handle best.’ Noriyuki Takayama President, Research Institute for Policies on Pension and Aging, Tokyo, and professor emeritus, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo ‘In a changing world where pensions are more than ever linked to labor markets, communication tools, and flexibility considerations, this anthology provides a unique up-to-date analysis of nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes. By mixing international experiences and theoretical studies, it demonstrates the high adaptability of such pension schemes to changing social challenges.’ Pierre Devolder Professor of Finance and Actuarial Sciences, Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium