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\"In a near future where climate change has severely affected weather and agriculture, the North End of an unnamed city has long been abandoned in favor of the neighboring South End. Aside from the scavengers steadily stripping the empty city to its bones, only a few thousand people remain, content to live quietly among the crumbling metropolis. Many, like the narrator, are there to try to escape the demons of their past. He spends his time observing and recording the decay around him, attempting to bury memories of what he has lost. But it eventually becomes clear that things are unraveling elsewhere as well, as strangers, violent and desperate alike, begin to appear in the North End, spreading word of social and political deterioration in the South End and beyond. Faced with a growing disruption to his isolated life, the narrator discovers within himself a surprising need to resist losing the home he has created in this empty place. He and the rest of the citizens of the North End must choose whether to face outsiders as invaders or welcome them as neighbors\"-- Provided by publisher.

Using the novel kilometer‐scale global storm‐resolving model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory eXperimental System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (X‐SHiELD), we investigate the impact of a 4 K increase in sea surface temperatures on Northern Hemisphere midlatitude cyclones, during the January 2020–January 2022 period. X‐SHiELD simulations reveal a poleward shift in cyclone tracks under warming, consistent with CMIP projections. However, X‐SHiELD's high resolution and explicit deep convection allowed for a detailed analysis of the warm and cold sectors, which are instead typically underrepresented in traditional CMIP models. Instead, compositing the 100 most intense midlatitude cyclones in the North Atlantic, we find that the warm sector exhibits statistically significant increases in wind speed and precipitation of up to 15% locally per degree of warming, while changes in the cold sector are less pronounced. This study demonstrates X‐SHiELD's potential to provide a realistic‐looking perspective into the evolving risks posed by midlatitude cyclones in a warming climate. Plain Language Summary In this study, we use a cutting‐edge global storm‐resolving model called Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory eXperimental System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (X‐SHiELD) to understand how intense storms, known as midlatitude cyclones, might change as the climate warms. Specifically, we examine how a 4°$4{}^{\\circ}$ C increase in sea surface temperatures affects these storms in the Northern Hemisphere over a 2‐year period. Our simulations show that the tracks of midlatitude cyclones tend to shift toward the poles as temperatures rise, which is consistent with previous climate model projections. What makes this study unique is the use of X‐SHiELD, a high‐resolution storm‐resolving model that can simulate both the warm and cold parts of these cyclones in far greater detail than traditional models. This allows us to observe changes that other models miss. For example, we find that the warm parts of the cyclones experience much stronger winds and heavier rainfall, with increases by up to 15% locally in wind speeds and in rainfall for every degree of warming. These findings suggest that as the climate warms, midlatitude cyclones will pose greater risks, especially from their warm sectors, and highlighting the importance of storm‐resolving models like X‐SHiELD. Key Points Using kilometer‐scale eXperimental System for High‐resolution prediction on Earth‐to‐Local Domains (X‐SHiELD) we capture fine details of warm and cold sectors of midlatitude cyclones, underrepresented in CMIP models Under +4K warming, X‐SHiELD simulations show a poleward shift in midlatitude cyclone tracks consistent with CMIP projections The warm sector of extreme cyclones intensifies with wind speeds and precipitation increasing by up to 15% per degree of warming

The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset was analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over six South Asian countries during the twenty-first century. The CMIP6 model simulations reveal biases in annual mean temperature and precipitation over South Asia in the present climate. In the historical period, the median of the CMIP6 model ensemble systematically underestimates the annual mean temperature for all the South Asian countries, while a mixed behavior is shown in the case of precipitation. In the future climate, the CMIP6 models display higher sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions over South Asia compared with the CMIP5 models. The multimodel ensemble from 27 CMIP6 models projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South Asia during the twenty-first century under three future scenarios. The projected temperature shows a large increase (over 6 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario) over the northwestern parts of South Asia, comprising the complex Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges. Any large increase in the mean temperature over this region will most likely result in a faster rate of glacier melting. By the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean temperature (uncertainty range) over South Asia is projected to increase by 1.2 (0.7–2.1) °C, 2.1 (1.5–3.3) °C, and 4.3 (3.2–6.6) °C under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the present (1995–2014) climate. The warming over South Asia is also continuous on the seasonal time scale. The CMIP6 models projected higher warming in the winter season than in the summer over South Asia, which if verified will have repercussions for snow/ice accumulations as well as winter cropping patterns. The annual mean precipitation is also projected to increase over South Asia during the twenty-first century under all scenarios. The rate of change in the projected annual mean precipitation varies considerably between the South Asian countries. By the end of the twenty-first century, the country-averaged annual mean precipitation (uncertainty range) is projected to increase by 17.1 (2.2–49.1)% in Bangladesh, 18.9 (−4.9 to 72)% in Bhutan, 27.3 (5.3–160.5)% in India, 19.5 (−5.9 to 95.6)% in Nepal, 26.4 (6.4–159.7)% in Pakistan, and 25.1 (−8.5 to 61.0)% in Sri Lanka under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The seasonal precipitation projections also shows large variability. The projected winter precipitation reveals a robust increase over the western Himalayas, with a corresponding decrease over the eastern Himalayas. On the other hand, the summer precipitation shows a robust increase over most of the South Asia region, with the largest increase over the arid region of southern Pakistan and adjacent areas of India, under the high-emission scenario. The results presented in this study give detailed insights into CMIP6 model performance over the South Asia region, which could be extended further to develop adaptation strategies, and may act as a guideline document for climate change related policymaking in the region.

As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of intermodel differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere, leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and better quantifications are needed to improve precipitation predictions. Here, the authors introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections.

Climate change and human activities have profoundly affected the world with extreme precipitation, heat waves, water scarcity, frequent floods and intense droughts. It is acknowledged that climate change will persist and perhaps intensify in the future, and it is thus meaningful to explore the quantitative impacts of these changes on hydrological regimes. The Jiulong River basin serves as an important watershed on the southeast coast of China. However, future hydrological changes under the combined impacts of climate change and land use change have been barely investigated. In this study, the climate outputs from five general circulation models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were corrected and spatially downscaled by a statistical downscaling method combining quantile mapping and machine learning. The future high-resolution land use maps were projected by the CA–Markov model with land use changes from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) as constraints. The future dynamic vegetation process was projected by the Biome-GBC model, and then, the future hydrological process under four representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (RCP–SSP) combined scenarios was simulated by a distributed hydrological model. Based on the copula method, the flood frequency and corresponding return periods were derived. The results demonstrated that future precipitation and air temperature would continue to rise, and future land use changes would have different developing pathways determined by the designs in various SSP–RCPs. Under the combined impacts of climate and land use change, the total available water resources will increase due to increasing precipitation, and the high flow and low flow will both increase at three stations under the four SSP–RCPs. The annual 1-day maximum discharge is projected to increase by 67–133% in the last decade of the 21st century, and the annual 7-day minimum discharge is projected to increase by 19–39%. The flood frequency analysis showed that the Jiulong River basin would face more frequent floods in the future. By the end of the 21st century, the station-average frequency of a historical 100-year flood will increase by 122% under the most optimistic scenario (SSP126) and increase by 213% under the scenario of greatest regional rivalry (SSP370). We demonstrated that climate change would be the major cause for the increase in future high flows and that land use change would dominate future changes in low flows. Finally, we recommend integrated and sustainable water management systems to tackle future challenges in this coastal basin.

As a contribution to an EU project which dealt with the effects of climate change, air pollution impacts and ecosystems, two different atmospheric chemical transport models were used to simulate the depositions of acidifying and eutrophying pollutants over Europe for the period 1900-2050. Given the unavoidable uncertainties in the historical inputs to these simulations (emissions, meteorology), we generated a new and unique data-set for the purposes of model evaluation; comprising data from the European Air Chemistry Network (EACN) in operation from 1955 to early 1980s and more recent data from the EMEP monitoring network. The two models showed similar and reasonable skills in reproducing both the EACN and EMEP observational data although the MATCH model consistently simulates higher concentrations and depositions than the EMEP model. To further assess the models' ability to reproduce the long-term trend in sulphur and nitrogen deposition we compared modelled concentrations of major ions in precipitation with data extracted from a glacier in the European Alps. While, the shape and timing of the nss-sulphate data agrees reasonably, the ice core data indicate persistently high nitrogen concentrations of oxidised and reduced nitrogen after the 1980s which does not correspond to the model simulations or data from Western Europe in the EMEP monitoring network. This study concludes that nss-sulphate deposition to Europe was already clearly elevated in the year 1900, but has now (mid-2010s) decreased to about 70% of what it was at the beginning of the last century. The deposition of oxidised nitrogen to Europe peaked during the 1980s but has since decreased to half of its maximum value; still it is 3-4 times higher than in the year 1900. The annual deposition of reduced nitrogen to Europe is currently more than two times as high as the conditions in the year 1900.

This study investigates future changes of Global Monsoon (GM) under anthropogenic global warming using 20 coupled models that participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) by comparing two runs: the historical run for 1850–2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006–2100. A metrics for evaluation of models’ performance on GM is designed to document performance for 1980–2005 and best four models are selected. The four best models’ multi-model ensemble (B4MME) projects the following changes in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario. (1) Monsoon domain will not change appreciably but land monsoon domain over Asia tends to expand westward by 10.6 %. (2) The annual mean and range of GM precipitation and the percentage of local summer rainfall will all amplify at a significant level over most of the global region, both over land and over ocean. (3) There will be a more prominent northern-southern hemispheric asymmetry and eastern-western hemispheric asymmetry. (4) Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon onset will be advanced and withdrawal will be delayed. (5) Changes in monsoon precipitation exhibits huge differences between the NH and the Southern hemisphere (SH). The NH monsoon precipitation will increase significantly due to increase in temperature difference between the NH and SH, significant enhancement of the Hadley circulation, and atmospheric moistening, against stabilization of troposphere. There is a slight decrease of the Walker circulation but not significant against the inter-model spread. There are important differences between the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 results which are discussed in detail.

Diverse characteristics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events challenge the traditional view of tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere systems. The probability of a transition from one type of event to another is influenced by multiple factors of which many are projected to change. Here we assess the likelihood of ENSO transitions in observations and climate models, including a distinction between events that peak in the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP). We find that the initial ENSO state influences the likelihood of certain transitions and that some transitions are not physically possible or stochastically likely. For example, transitions to CP events are more likely than EP events except from a neutral state. We also find that El Niños tend to occur as singular events compared to La Niñas. While consecutive El Niño and La Niña events of EP type are possible, opposing EP events do not occur in succession. We identify several transitions likely driven by internal dynamical processes including neutral conditions to El Niño, CP El Niño to another El Niño, EP El Niño to CP La Niña, CP La Niña to CP El Niño and La Niña, and EP La Niña to neutral and CP El Niño. Projections of future transitions show an increased probability of transitions to CP El Niño events while transitions to EP La Niña events become less frequent under a high-emissions scenario. Accordingly, transitions to these events become more and less likely, respectively. We also find changes in the likelihood of specific transitions in a warming world: consecutive CP El Niño events become more likely while EP El Niño events become less likely to transition into CP La Niña events. These changes are expected to occur as early as 2050 with some changes to be accelerated by the end of the 21st century.