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Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.

Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?

Aim The accurate mapping of forest carbon stocks is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle, for assessing emissions from deforestation, and for rational land-use planning. Remote sensing (RS) is currently the key tool for this purpose, but RS does not estimate vegetation biomass directly, and thus may miss significant spatial variations in forest structure. We test the stated accuracy of pantropical carbon maps using a large independent field dataset.Location Tropical forests of the Amazon basin. The permanent archive of the field plot data can be accessed at: http://dx.doi.org.bases-doc.univ-lorraine.fr/10.5521/FORESTPLOTS.NET/2014_1Methods Two recent pantropical RS maps of vegetation carbon are compared to a unique ground-plot dataset, involving tree measurements in 413 large inventory plots located in nine countries. The RS maps were compared directly to field plots, and kriging of the field data was used to allow area-based comparisons.Results The two RS carbon maps fail to capture the main gradient in Amazon forest carbon detected using 413 ground plots, from the densely wooded tall forests of the north-east, to the light-wooded, shorter forests of the south-west. The differences between plots and RS maps far exceed the uncertainties given in these studies, with whole regions over-or under-estimated by > 25%, whereas regional uncertainties for the maps were reported to be < 5%.Main conclusions Pantropical biomass maps are widely used by governments and by projects aiming to reduce deforestation using carbon offsets, but may have significant regional biases. Carbon-mapping techniques must be revised to account for the known ecological variation in tree wood density and allometry to create maps suitable for carbon accounting. The use of single relationships between tree canopy height and above-ground biomass inevitably yields large, spatially correlated errors. This presents a significant challenge to both the forest conservation and remote sensing communities, because neither wood density nor species assemblages can be reliably mapped from space.

Landscape heterogeneity represents two aspects of landscape simplification: (i) compositional heterogeneity (diversity of habitat types); and (ii) configurational heterogeneity (number, size and arrangement of habitat patches), both with different ecological implications for community composition. We examined how independent gradients of compositional and configurational landscape heterogeneity, at eight spatial scales, shape taxonomic and functional composition of butterfly communities in 91 managed grasslands across Germany. We used landscape metrics that were calculated from functional maps based on habitat preferences of individual species during different life stages. The relative effects of compositional and configurational landscape heterogeneity were compared with those of local land‐use intensity on butterfly taxonomic diversity, community composition and functional diversity of traits related to body size, feeding breadth and migratory tendency. As expected, compositional heterogeneity had strong positive effects on taxonomic diversity, while configurational heterogeneity had strong positive effects on trait dominance within the community. When landscapes had smaller mean patch size and greater boundary area, communities were dominated by species with more specialized larval feeding, decreased forewing length and limited migratory tendency. The positive effects of increased configurational landscape heterogeneity outweighed the negative effects of local land‐use intensity on larval‐feeding specialization, at all spatial scales, highlighting its importance for specialists of all dispersal capabilities. Synthesis and applications. We show that landscapes with high compositional heterogeneity support communities with greater taxonomic diversity, while landscapes with high configurational heterogeneity support communities that include vulnerable species (feeding specialists with larger body size, sedentary nature and more negatively affected by local management intensity). A decline in functional community composition can lead to functional homogenization, affecting the viability of the ecosystems by decreasing the variability in their responses to disturbance and altering their functioning. A landscape management for grasslands that promotes the maintenance of small patch sizes and a diversity of land uses in the surrounding landscape (within 250–1000 m) is recommended for the conservation of diverse butterfly communities. These strategies could also benefit government programmes such as the EU 2020 Biodiversity Strategy in their efforts to reduce the loss of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes.

The Dark Target aerosol algorithm was developed to exploit the information content available from the observations of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), to better characterize the global aerosol system. The algorithm is based on measurements of the light scattered by aerosols toward a space-borne sensor against the backdrop of relatively dark Earth scenes, thus giving rise to the name “Dark Target”. Development required nearly a decade of research that included application of MODIS airborne simulators to provide test beds for proto-algorithms and analysis of existing data to form realistic assumptions to constrain surface reflectance and aerosol optical properties. This research in itself played a significant role in expanding our understanding of aerosol properties, even before Terra MODIS launch. Contributing to that understanding were the observations and retrievals of the growing Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) of sun-sky radiometers, which has walked hand-in-hand with MODIS and the development of other aerosol algorithms, providing validation of the satellite-retrieved products after launch. The MODIS Dark Target products prompted advances in Earth science and applications across subdisciplines such as climate, transport of aerosols, air quality, and data assimilation systems. Then, as the Terra and Aqua MODIS sensors aged, the challenge was to monitor the effects of calibration drifts on the aerosol products and to differentiate physical trends in the aerosol system from artefacts introduced by instrument characterization. Our intention is to continue to adapt and apply the well-vetted Dark Target algorithms to new instruments, including both polar-orbiting and geosynchronous sensors. The goal is to produce an uninterrupted time series of an aerosol climate data record that begins at the dawn of the 21st century and continues indefinitely into the future.

Spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) estimation from satellite-measured top of atmosphere (TOA) reflectances is challenging because of the complicated TOA-AOD relationship and a nexus of land surface and atmospheric state variations. This task is usually undertaken using a physical model to provide a first estimate of the TOA reflectances which are then optimized by comparison with the satellite data. Recently developed deep neural network (DNN) models provide a powerful tool to represent the complicated relationship statistically. This study presents a methodology based on DNN to estimate AOD using Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) TOA observations. A year (2017) of AHI TOA observations over the Himawari-8 full disk collocated in space and time with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD data were used to derive a total of 14,154 training and validation samples. The TOA reflectance in all six AHI solar bands, three TOA reflectance ratios derived based on the dark-target assumptions, sun-sensor geometry, and auxiliary data are used as predictors to estimate AOD at 500 nm. The DNN AOD is validated by separating training and validation samples using random k-fold cross-validation and using AERONET site-specific leave-one-station-out validation, and is compared with a random forest regression estimator and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AOD. The DNN AOD shows high accuracy: (1) RMSE = 0.094, R2 = 0.915 for k-fold cross-validation, and (2) RMSE = 0.172, R2 = 0.730 for leave-one-station-out validation. The k-fold cross-validation overestimates the DNN accuracy as the training and validation samples may come from the same AHI pixel location. The leave-one-station-out validation reflects the accuracy for large-area applications where there are no training samples for the pixel location to be estimated. The DNN AOD has better accuracy than the random forest AOD and JMA AOD. In addition, the contribution of the dark-target derived TOA ratio predictors is examined and confirmed, and the sensitivity to the DNN structure is discussed.

Purpose In order to train new professionals and researchers in the area, among other purposes, it is necessary to have knowledge about the operationalization of life cycle tools. The objective of this study is to formulate a proposal for conducting environmental life cycle costing (ELCC) from the approach of this content in the scientific literature. Methods To this end, we developed a review with the analysis of studies that performed the tool in various productive contexts, between 2008 and 2022, published in journals indexed in the Web of Science. The application of keywords defined for the search allowed the retrieval of 4007 documents. Non-peer-reviewed journal articles, conference papers, review articles, editorial materials, meeting abstracts, letters, and book chapters were excluded. The abstracts and methodologies were also read to further exclude articles that were not classified using the ELCC. With the application of these procedures, we obtained 133 articles, which were analyzed in detail. Results and discussion A proposal for conducting the ELCC was formulated to guide the execution of the tool. This was composed of procedures, challenges, and opportunities. The main procedures identified included the delimitation of a perspective, goal, scope, internal and external cost categories, application of economic indicators, and uncertainty analysis. The main identified challenges refer to the ELCC execution reproducibility, the difficulty in standardizing cost categories, and the limited vision regarding the tool use. The opportunities mapped out encompass the exploration of the thirty-two gaps pointed out for ten research segments, emphasis on the service sector, government programs, creation of databases, and approach to ELCC concepts in educational training. Conclusions and recommendations The proposal made it possible to systematize knowledge from the way ELCC has been conducted in the last decades in different segments. In the practical field, this study serves to guide researchers, professionals, or students who wish to use the tool to achieve professional goals. Future research can also refine and explore the proposed structure, as well as the identified gaps and other opportunities.

Artificial intelligence is widely applied to estimate ground-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from satellite data by constructing the relationship between the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and the surface PM2.5 concentration. However, aerosol size properties, such as the fine mode fraction (FMF), are rarely considered in satellite-based PM2.5 modeling, especially in machine learning models. This study investigated the linear and non-linear relationships between fine mode AOT (fAOT) and PM2.5 over five AERONET stations in China (Beijing, Baotou, Taihu, Xianghe, and Xuzhou) using AERONET fAOT and 5-year (2015–2019) ground-level PM2.5 data. Results showed that the fAOT separated by the FMF (fAOT = AOT × FMF) had significant linear and non-linear relationships with surface PM2.5. Then, the Himawari-8 V3.0 and V2.1 FMF and AOT (FMF&AOT-PM2.5) data were tested as input to a deep learning model and four classical machine learning models. The results showed that FMF&AOT-PM2.5 performed better than AOT (AOT-PM2.5) in modelling PM2.5 estimations. The FMF was then applied in satellite-based PM2.5 retrieval over China during 2020, and FMF&AOT-PM2.5 was found to have a better agreement with ground-level PM2.5 than AOT-PM2.5 on dust and haze days. The better linear correlation between PM2.5 and fAOT on both haze and dust days (dust days: R = 0.82; haze days: R = 0.56) compared to AOT (dust days: R = 0.72; haze days: R = 0.52) partly contributed to the superior accuracy of FMF&AOT-PM2.5. This study demonstrates the importance of including the FMF to improve PM2.5 estimations and emphasizes the need for a more accurate FMF product that enables superior PM2.5 retrieval.

PRISMA is the Italian Space Agency’s first proof-of-concept hyperspectral mission launched in March 2019. The present work aims to evaluate the accuracy of PRISMA’s standard Level 2d (L2d) products in visible and near-infrared (NIR) spectral regions over water bodies. For this assessment, an analytical comparison was performed with in situ water reflectance available through the ocean color component of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET-OC). In total, 109 cloud-free images over 20 inland and coastal water sites worldwide were available for the match-up analysis, covering a period of three years. The quality of L2d products was further evaluated as a function of ancillary parameters, such as the trophic state of the water, aerosol optical depth (AOD), observation and illumination geometry, and the distance from the coastline (DC). The results showed significant levels of uncertainty in the L2d reflectance products, with median symmetric accuracies (MdSA) varying from 33% in the green to more than 100% in the blue and NIR bands, with higher median uncertainties in oligotrophic waters (MdSA of 85% for the entire spectral range) than in meso-eutrophic (MdSA of 46%) where spectral shapes were retained adequately. Slight variations in the statistical agreement were then noted depending on AOD values, observation and illumination geometry, and DC. Overall, the results indicate that water-specific atmospheric correction algorithms should be developed and tested to fully exploit PRISMA data as a precursor for future operational hyperspectral missions as the standard L2d products are mostly intended for terrestrial applications.

Accurate estimation of fine particulate matter with diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) at a high spatiotemporal resolution is crucial for the evaluation of its health effects. Previous studies face multiple challenges including limited ground measurements and availability of spatiotemporal covariates. Although the multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) retrieves satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) at a high spatiotemporal resolution, massive non-random missingness considerably limits its application in PM2.5 estimation. Here, a deep learning approach, i.e., bootstrap aggregating (bagging) of autoencoder-based residual deep networks, was developed to make robust imputation of MAIAC AOD and further estimate PM2.5 at a high spatial (1 km) and temporal (daily) resolution. The base model consisted of autoencoder-based residual networks where residual connections were introduced to improve learning performance. Bagging of residual networks was used to generate ensemble predictions for better accuracy and uncertainty estimates. As a case study, the proposed approach was applied to impute daily satellite AOD and subsequently estimate daily PM2.5 in the Jing-Jin-Ji metropolitan region of China in 2015. The presented approach achieved competitive performance in AOD imputation (mean test R2: 0.96; mean test RMSE: 0.06) and PM2.5 estimation (test R2: 0.90; test RMSE: 22.3 μg/m3). In the additional independent tests using ground AERONET AOD and PM2.5 measurements at the monitoring station of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, this approach achieved high R2 (0.82–0.97). Compared with the state-of-the-art machine learning method, XGBoost, the proposed approach generated more reasonable spatial variation for predicted PM2.5 surfaces. Publically available covariates used included meteorology, MERRA2 PBLH and AOD, coordinates, and elevation. Other covariates such as cloud fractions or land-use were not used due to unavailability. The results of validation and independent testing demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in exposure assessment of PM2.5 using satellite AOD having massive missing values.