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464 result(s) for "gradient boosting machines regression"
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Machine Learning-Based Forecasting Active Power Loss in Distribution Systems
This paper presents an ensemble learning approach to predict the active power losses during the allocation and sizing of distributed generation (DG) units in power distribution networks. The forecast model incorporates the Gradient Boosting Machine Regression (GBMR) to estimate DG location, bus voltages, DG size, and active losses without conventional power flow calculations. The results demonstrate that the suggested estimations of power losses and DG sizing are effective, practical, and adaptable for power system management. The accuracy of the proposed model has been validated using key performance metrics and tested on the standard IEEE 33 bus system. In the case of fixed load, the GBMR outperforms other machine learning techniques with the R-squared 0.9997, with a very low mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) (0.2216%) and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.0673 in predicting active power losses. This approach is promising in enabling grid operators to effectively manage DG unit integration of distributed energy resources from precise and reliable estimates of the power loss.
An evaluation of machine-learning for predicting phenotype: studies in yeast, rice, and wheat
In phenotype prediction the physical characteristics of an organism are predicted from knowledge of its genotype and environment. Such studies, often called genome-wide association studies, are of the highest societal importance, as they are of central importance to medicine, crop-breeding, etc. We investigated three phenotype prediction problems: one simple and clean (yeast), and the other two complex and real-world (rice and wheat). We compared standard machine learning methods; elastic net, ridge regression, lasso regression, random forest, gradient boosting machines (GBM), and support vector machines (SVM), with two state-of-the-art classical statistical genetics methods; genomic BLUP and a two-step sequential method based on linear regression. Additionally, using the clean yeast data, we investigated how performance varied with the complexity of the biological mechanism, the amount of observational noise, the number of examples, the amount of missing data, and the use of different data representations. We found that for almost all the phenotypes considered, standard machine learning methods outperformed the methods from classical statistical genetics. On the yeast problem, the most successful method was GBM, followed by lasso regression, and the two statistical genetics methods; with greater mechanistic complexity GBM was best, while in simpler cases lasso was superior. In the wheat and rice studies the best two methods were SVM and BLUP. The most robust method in the presence of noise, missing data, etc. was random forests. The classical statistical genetics method of genomic BLUP was found to perform well on problems where there was population structure. This suggests that standard machine learning methods need to be refined to include population structure information when this is present. We conclude that the application of machine learning methods to phenotype prediction problems holds great promise, but that determining which methods is likely to perform well on any given problem is elusive and non-trivial.
A boosting ensemble learning based hybrid light gradient boosting machine and extreme gradient boosting model for predicting house prices
The implementation of tree‐ensemble models has become increasingly essential in solving classification and prediction problems. Boosting ensemble techniques have been widely used as individual machine learning algorithms in predicting house prices. One of the techniques is LGBM algorithm that employs leaf wise growth strategy, reduces loss and improves accuracy during training which results in overfitting. However, XGBoost algorithm uses level wise growth strategy which takes time to compute resulting in higher computation time. Nevertheless, XGBoost has a regularization parameter, implements column sampling and weight reduction on new trees which combats overfitting. This study focuses on developing a hybrid LGBM and XGBoost model in order to prevent overfitting through minimizing variance whilst improving accuracy. Bayesian hyperparameter optimization technique is implemented on the base learners in order to find the best combination of hyperparameters. This resulted in reduced variance (overfitting) in the hybrid model since the regularization parameter values were optimized. The hybrid model is compared to LGBM, XGBoost, Adaboost and GBM algorithms to evaluate its performance in giving accurate house price predictions using MSE, MAE and MAPE evaluation metrics. The hybrid LGBM and XGBoost model outperformed the other models with MSE, MAE and MAPE of 0.193, 0.285, and 0.156 respectively. The article proposes an integration of advanced ML algorithms, LGBM and XGBoost techniques in predicting house prices. The proposed model is compared to individual boosting ensemble learning algorithms to evaluate its performance. The hybrid LGBM and XGBoost model has better performance accuracy results in predicting house prices compared to the individual models.
Ensemble Voting Regression Based on Machine Learning for Predicting Medical Waste: A Case from Turkey
Predicting medical waste (MW) properly is vital for an effective waste management system (WMS), but it is difficult because of inadequate data and various factors that impact MW. This study’s primary objective was to develop an ensemble voting regression algorithm based on machine learning (ML) algorithms such as random forests (RFs), gradient boosting machines (GBMs), and adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) to predict the MW for Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey. This was the first study to use ML algorithms to predict MW, to our knowledge. First, three ML algorithms were developed based on official data. To compare their performances, performance measures such as mean absolute deviation (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R-squared) were calculated. Among the standalone ML models, RF achieved the best performance. Then, these base models were used to construct the proposed ensemble voting regression (VR) model utilizing weighted averages according to the base models’ performances. The proposed model outperformed three baseline models, with the lowest RMSE (843.70). This study gives an effective tool to practitioners and decision-makers for planning and constructing medical waste management systems by predicting the MW quantity.
Prediction of Ecofriendly Concrete Compressive Strength Using Gradient Boosting Regression Tree Combined with GridSearchCV Hyperparameter-Optimization Techniques
A crucial factor in the efficient design of concrete sustainable buildings is the compressive strength (Cs) of eco-friendly concrete. In this work, a hybrid model of Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT) with grid search cross-validation (GridSearchCV) optimization technique was used to predict the compressive strength, which allowed us to increase the precision of the prediction models. In addition, to build the proposed models, 164 experiments on eco-friendly concrete compressive strength were gathered for previous researches. The dataset included the water/binder ratio (W/B), curing time (age), the recycled aggregate percentage from the total aggregate in the mixture (RA%), ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBFS) material percentage from the total binder used in the mixture (GGBFS%), and superplasticizer (kg). The root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) between the observed and forecast strengths were used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictive models. The obtained results indicated that—when compared to the default GBRT model—the GridSearchCV approach can capture more hyperparameters for the GBRT prediction model. Furthermore, the robustness and generalization of the GSC-GBRT model produced notable results, with RMSE and R2 values (for the testing phase) of 2.3214 and 0.9612, respectively. The outcomes proved that the suggested GSC-GBRT model is advantageous. Additionally, the significance and contribution of the input factors that affect the compressive strength were explained using the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) approach.
Optimizing sepsis mortality prediction using hybrid federated learning and explainable AI framework
Sepsis is a life-threatening condition resulting from a dysregulated host response to infection, frequently leading to organ failure and high mortality in hospital settings. Early identification of sepsis is critical for reducing mortality; however, conventional diagnostic approaches often fail to capture complex clinical patterns at an early stage. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) have demonstrated potential for improving predictive accuracy while supporting clinical interpretability. Nevertheless, concerns related to data privacy and model transparency continue to limit real-world clinical adoption. To address these challenges, this study proposes a hybrid framework that integrates federated learning with ensemble-based machine learning models and explainable AI techniques for sepsis mortality prediction. The framework employs Random Forest, LightGBM, XGBoost, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression models, trained in a decentralized manner to preserve patient data privacy. Model interpretability is enhanced using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), enabling transparent and clinician-oriented decision support. The proposed framework is evaluated using standard performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC–AUC), in both centralized and federated settings. Experimental results demonstrate that ensemble models, particularly Random Forest and gradient boosting methods, achieve high predictive performance while maintaining robustness in a federated environment. The findings indicate that combining FL with XAI enables accurate, privacy-preserving, and interpretable sepsis mortality prediction, supporting reliable clinical decision-making and potential deployment in real-time intensive care unit applications.
Forecasting mid-price movement of Bitcoin futures using machine learning
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, investors face challenges in understanding price dynamics across assets. This paper explores the performance of the various type of machine learning algorithms (MLAs) to predict mid-price movement for Bitcoin futures prices. We use high-frequency intraday data to evaluate the relative forecasting performances across various time frequencies, ranging between 5 and 60-min. Our findings show that the average classification accuracy for five out of the six MLAs is consistently above the 50% threshold, indicating that MLAs outperform benchmark models such as ARIMA and random walk in forecasting Bitcoin futures prices. This highlights the importance and relevance of MLAs to produce accurate forecasts for bitcoin futures prices during the COVID-19 turmoil.
Prediction of geometry deviations in additive manufactured parts: comparison of linear regression with machine learning algorithms
Dimensional accuracy in additive manufacturing (AM) is still an issue compared with the tolerances for injection molding. In order to make AM suitable for the medical, aerospace, and automotive industries, geometry variations should be controlled and managed with a tight tolerance range. In the previously published article, the authors used statistical analysis to develop linear models for the prediction of dimensional features of laser-sintered specimens. Two identical builds with the same material, process, and build parameters were produced, resulting in 434 samples for mechanical testing (ISO 527-2 1BA). The developed linear models had low accuracy, and therefore needed an application of more advanced data analysis techniques. In this work, machine learning techniques are applied for the same data, and results are compared with the previously reported linear models. The linear regression model is the best for width. Multilayer perceptron and gradient boost regressor models have outperformed other for thickness and length. The recommendations on how the developed models can be used in the future are proposed.
Unveiling the potential of machine learning approaches in predicting the emergence of stroke at its onset: a predicting framework
A stroke is a dangerous, life-threatening disease that mostly affects people over 65, but an unhealthy diet is also contributing to the development of strokes at younger ages. Strokes can be treated successfully if they are identified early enough, and suitable therapies are available. The purpose of this study is to develop a stroke prediction model that will improve stroke prediction effectiveness as well as accuracy. Predicting whether someone is suffering from a stroke or not can be accomplished with this proposed machine learning algorithm. In this research, various machine learning techniques are evaluated for predicting stroke on the healthcare stroke dataset. The feature selection algorithms used here are gradient boosting and random forest, and classifiers include the decision tree classifier, Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier, logistic regression classifier, gradient boosting classifier, random forest classifier, K neighbors classifier, and Xtreme gradient boosting classifier. In this process, different machine-learning approaches are employed to test predictive methods on different data samples. As a result obtained from the different methods applied, and the comparison of different classification models, the random forest model offers an accuracy rate of 98%.
Interpretable machine learning algorithms reveal gut microbiome features associated with atopic dermatitis
The \"gut-skin axis\" has been proposed to play an important role in the development and symptoms of atopic dermatitis. Therefore, we have constructed an interpretable machine learning framework to quantitatively screen key gut flora. The 16S rRNA dataset, after applying the centered log-ratio transformation, was analyzed using five different machine learning models: random forest, light gradient boosting machine, extreme gradient boosting, support vector machine with radial kernel, and logistic regression. Interpretable machine learning methods, such as SHAP values, were used to identify significant features associated with atopic dermatitis. Random forest performed better than the other \"tree\" models in the validation partitions. The SHAP global dependency plot indicated that ranked as the strongest predictive factor across all prediction horizons, although the SHAP values for some features were still higher in support vector machine and logistic regression models. The SHAP partial dependency plot for \"tree\" models showed that the best segmentation point for was further from the origin compared to other features in the respective models, quantitatively reflecting differences in gut microbiota. Machine learning models combined with SHAP could be used to quantitatively screen key gut flora in atopic dermatitis patients, providing doctors with an intuitive understanding of 16S rRNA sequencing data to support precision medicine in care and recovery.