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Population-level adaptation to spatial variation in factors such as climate and soils is critical for climate-vulnerability assessments, restoration seeding, and other ecological applications in species management, and the underlying information is typically based on common-garden studies that are short duration. Here, we show >20 yr were required for adaptive differences to emerge among 13 populations of a widespread shrub (sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata ssp wyomingensis) collected from around the western United States and planted into common gardens. Additionally, >10 yr were required for greater survival of local populations, that is, local adaptation, to become evident. Variation in survival was best explained by the combination of populations’ home ecoregion combined with grouping of minimum temperature and aridity. Additional reductions in survival were explained by ungrouped (i.e., continuous) measures of garden-to-population-origin separation in geographic distance (5% decrease in survival per 100 km increase in separation; R² = 0.22) and especially in minimum temperature in younger plants (−4% per + °C difference, R² = 0.56 vs. 0.29 in the 14th vs. 27th post-planting years, respectively). Longer-term common garden studies are needed. While we await them, uncertainty in adaptive variation resulting from short-term observations could be quantitatively estimated and reported with seed-transfer guidelines to reduce risks of introducing maladapted provenances in restoration.

Aim Population ecologists often focus on changes in the distribution and abundance of wildlife species, which are useful for trend analyses and status assessments. However, rarely are these responses evaluated simultaneously for a single species, despite their unique contributions to fully assess a species' viability. For example, focusing solely on total abundance can mask important losses in overall distribution within a metapopulation structure that may contribute to long‐term population instability that results from the extirpation of small peripheral populations. Location Bi‐State region of Nevada and California, USA. Methods We simultaneously evaluated changes in population abundance and distribution for greater sage‐grouse (hereafter sage‐grouse; Centrocercus urophasianus) within the Bi‐State Distinct Population Segment (DPS), a genetically distinct and isolated population straddling the border of Nevada and California. We combined population counts, demographic data, and information on space use from marked individuals to evaluate changes in population distribution and abundance over three time periods that corresponded to the three most recent population nadirs (1995–2019, 2002–2019 and 2008–2019). Results The Bi‐State DPS exhibited evidence of 1.2%–2.5% declines annually, over the short/medium‐term (1995–2019; λ̂ λ̂ = 0.987, 95% CRI: 0.970–0.999), short‐term (2002–2019; λ̂ λ̂ = 0.975, 95% CRI: 0.963–0.985) and recent‐term (2008–2019; λ̂ λ̂ = 0.988, 95% CRI: 0.973–1.001). Since 1995, the spatial distribution of sage‐grouse abundance in the Bi‐State DPS shifted amongst subpopulations, with peripheral subpopulations suffering the largest declines. Main Conclusions Gains in abundance and distribution amongst expanding subpopulations did not offset losses in the remaining subpopulations, with a net loss in occupied distribution of 156 km2 since 1995. Reductions in spatial distribution could have implications for metapopulation persistence as peripheral populations become more vulnerable to stochastic events, which would not have been apparent from the evaluation of overall metapopulation abundance on its own.

Despite decades of field research on greater sage-grouse, range-wide demographic data have yet to be synthesized into a sensitivity analysis to guide management actions. We reviewed range-wide demographic rates for greater sage-grouse from 1938 to 2011 and used data from 50 studies to parameterize a 2-stage, female-based population matrix model. We conducted life-stage simulation analyses to determine the proportion of variation in population growth rate (λ) accounted for by each vital rate, and we calculated analytical sensitivity, elasticity, and variance-stabilized sensitivity to identify the contribution of each vital rate to λ. As expected for an upland game bird, greater sage-grouse showed marked annual and geographic variation in several vital rates. Three rates were demonstrably important for population growth: female survival, chick survival, and nest success. Female survival and chick survival, in that order, had the most influence on λ per unit change in vital rates. However, nest success explained more of the variation in λ than did the survival rates. In lieu of quantitative data on specific mortality factors driving local populations, we recommend that management efforts for greater sage-grouse first focus on increasing female survival by restoring large, intact sagebrush-steppe landscapes, reducing persistent sources of human-caused mortality, and eliminating anthropogenic habitat features that subsidize species that prey on juvenile, yearling, and adult females. Our analysis also supports efforts to increase chick survival and nest success by eliminating anthropogenic habitat features that subsidize chick and nest predators, and by managing shrub, forb, and grass cover, height, and composition to meet local brood-rearing and nesting habitat guidelines. We caution that habitat management to increase chick survival and nest success should not reduce the cover or height of sagebrush below that required for female survival in other seasons (e.g., fall, winter). The success or failure of management actions for sage-grouse should be assessed by measuring changes in vital rates over long time periods to avoid confounding with natural, annual variation.

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016–2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016–2019 relative to the 1973–1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have been subject to long-term and continuing declines in population and habitat since European settlement of western North America. Increased wildfire activity constitutes a primary threat to the species in western portions of their range, with documented declines in wildfire-affected populations. Following a 187,000-ha wildfire in southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, USA, we used global positioning system (GPS) telemetry to monitor nest initiation, nest survival, nesting habitat, and adult survival of female sage-grouse during 2013 and 2014. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to estimate daily nest survival and monthly adult survival in relation to temporal patterns, physiological characteristics of females, and habitat and land-cover characteristics. We assessed habitat characteristics using geographic information system (GIS)-derived measures of post-fire habitat condition and land cover. Nest initiation rate following the fire was comparable to that observed in unaltered habitat. We observed nesting rates of 90% and 100% during 2013 and 2014, respectively, and renesting rates of 23% and 57% during the same years. Daily nest survival was consistently low in comparison to rates observed in concurrent studies in the region, for first nests during both years, and for second nests during 2013, but survival markedly increased for second nests during 2014. Sage-grouse generally did not leave the fire perimeter to nest, with 64% and 73% of nests located in the fire boundary during 2013 and 2014, respectively. Approximately 27% of nests were located in burned habitat during 2013, and 20% of nests in 2014 were located in burned habitat. Adult survival varied by month, and although patterns of monthly survival were similar between years, monthly survival rates were significantly reduced from the beginning of the study through the end of the first post-fire growing season. Our results indicate that sage-grouse continue to use fire-affected habitat in the years immediately following wildfire and sage-grouse experienced lower nest survival and adult female survival than other populations during the same period.

The umbrella species concept, wherein multiple species are indirectly protected under the umbrella of a reserve created for one, is intended to enhance conservation efficiency. Although appealing in theory and common in practice, empirical tests of the concept have been scarce. We used a real-world, semi-protected reserve established to protect a high-profile umbrella species (greater sage-grouse [Centrocercus urophasianus]) to investigate 2 potential mechanisms underlying the concept’s successful application: reserve size and species similarity. We estimated how much habitat protection the established reserve provided to 52 species of conservation concern associated with vegetation communities where greater sage-grouse occur. To illustrate the importance of reserve size, we compared the effectiveness of the established reserve to alternative greater sage-grouse reserves of various sizes and to simulated reserves of equal size but sited with no regard for greater sage-grouse. We further assessed whether key species’ traits were associated with different levels of protection under the umbrella reserve. The established umbrella reserve protected 82% of the state’s greater sage-grouse population and 0–63% of the habitat of the background species examined. The reserve outperformed equally sized, simulated reserves for only 12 of 52 background species. As expected, larger alternative reserves served as better umbrellas, but regardless of reserve size, not all species received equal protection. The established reserve was most effective at protecting the habitat of species that were most similar to the umbrella species (i.e., avian species, those highly associated with sagebrush plant communities, and those with widespread habitat). In contrast, the habitat of species with restricted distributions, particularly when combined with vegetation associations not closely matching the umbrella species, was not protected as well by the umbrella reserve. Such species require additional, targeted attention to achieve conservation objectives. Successful application of the umbrella species concept requires careful consideration of the characteristics of the umbrella species, the reserve delineated on its behalf, and the similarity of the umbrella species to its purported background species.

We developed rangewide population and habitat models for Greater Sage‐Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) that account for regional variation in habitat selection and relative densities of birds for use in conservation planning and risk assessments. We developed a probabilistic model of occupied breeding habitat by statistically linking habitat characteristics within 4 miles of an occupied lek using a nonlinear machine learning technique (Random Forests). Habitat characteristics used were quantified in GIS and represent standard abiotic and biotic variables related to sage‐grouse biology. Statistical model fit was high (mean correctly classified = 82.0%, range = 75.4–88.0%) as were cross‐validation statistics (mean = 80.9%, range = 75.1–85.8%). We also developed a spatially explicit model to quantify the relative density of breeding birds across each Greater Sage‐Grouse management zone. The models demonstrate distinct clustering of relative abundance of sage‐grouse populations across all management zones. On average, approximately half of the breeding population is predicted to be within 10% of the occupied range. We also found that 80% of sage‐grouse populations were contained in 25–34% of the occupied range within each management zone. Our rangewide population and habitat models account for regional variation in habitat selection and the relative densities of birds, and thus, they can serve as a consistent and common currency to assess how sage‐grouse habitat and populations overlap with conservation actions or threats over the entire sage‐grouse range. We also quantified differences in functional habitat responses and disturbance thresholds across the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) management zones using statistical relationships identified during habitat modeling. Even for a species as specialized as Greater Sage‐Grouse, our results show that ecological context matters in both the strength of habitat selection (i.e., functional response curves) and response to disturbance.

How to shape the anticipated build-out of industrial-scale renewable energy in a way that minimizes risk to wildlife remains contentious. The challenge of balancing wildlife conservation and decarbonization of the electricity sector is well illustrated in the grasslands and shrub-steppe of North America. Here, several endemic species of grouse are the focus of intensive, long-term conservation action by a host of governmental and nongovernmental entities, many of whom are now asking whether anticipated increases in the number of wind-energy facilities will exacerbate declines or prevent recovery of these species. To address this question, we synthesized the potential consequences of wind-energy development on prairie grouse. Published literature on behavior or demography of prairie grouse at wind-energy facilities is sparse, with studies having been conducted at only 5 different facilities in the United States. Only 2 of these studies met the standard for robust impact analysis by collecting preconstruction data and using control sites or gradient designs. Only one species, greater prairie chicken, had published results available for >1 facility. Most (10/12) studies also drew conclusions based on short (4 years) periods of study, which is potentially problematic when studying highly philopatric species. Given these caveats, we found that, in the short-term, adult survival and nest success appear largely unaffected in populations exposed to wind-energy facilities. However, changes in habitat use by female greater sage-grouse and female greater prairie-chicken during some seasons and reduced lek persistence among male greater prairie-chickens near wind turbines suggest behavioral responses that may have demographic consequences. Prairie grouse can coexist with wind-energy facilities in some cases, at least in the short term, but important uncertainties remain, including the potential for long-term, cumulative effects of the extensive development expected as states attempt to meet goals for generating electricity from renewable sources.

The sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem is one of the largest ecosystems in western North America providing habitat for species found nowhere else. Sagebrush habitats have experienced dramatic declines since the 1950s, mostly due to anthropogenic disturbances. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a sagebrush-obligate species that has experienced population declines over the last several decades, which are attributed to a variety of disturbances including the more recent threat of oil and gas development. We developed a hierarchical, Bayesian state-space model to investigate the impacts of 2 measures of oil and gas development, and environmental and habitat conditions, on sage-grouse populations in Wyoming, USA using male lek counts from 1984 to 2008. Lek attendance of male sage-grouse declined by approximately 2.5%/year and was negatively related to oil and gas well density. We found little support for the influence of sagebrush cover and precipitation on changes in lek counts. Our results support those of other studies reporting negative impacts of oil and gas development on sage-grouse populations and our modeling approach allowed us to make inference to a longer time scale and larger spatial extent than in previous studies. In addition to sage-grouse, development may also negatively affect other sagebrush-obligate species, and active management of sagebrush habitats may be necessary to maintain some species.

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) is considered an umbrella species for sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) landscapes in western North America. In 2015, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service determined sage-grouse unwarranted for protection under the Endangered Species Act (1973) because of conservation actions in priority areas. Understanding seasonal movements is key to delineation and assessment of priority conservation areas. We monitored radiomarked sage-grouse from 1998 to 2013 throughout Utah, USA, to determine seasonal movements. Maximum distances from nearest lek to nesting, summer, and winter locations across all radiomarked grouse averaged 2.20 km (90th percentile = 5.06 km), 3.93 km (90th percentile = 8.45 km), and 3.76 km (90th percentile = 7.15 km), respectively. Maximum movements from nest to summer, nest to winter, and between summer and winter locations across all radiomarked grouse averaged 5.77 km (90th percentile = 13.60 km), 11.77 km (90th percentile = 26.36 km), and 14.75 km (90th percentile = 30.77 km), respectively. Maximum distance from lek of capture to summer locations was greater for males than females, whereas females moved farther than males from lek to winter and summer to winter locations. Adult females moved farther than yearlings from lek to nest and summer to winter areas. The state of Utah’s Sage-Grouse Management Areas included approximately 85% of the radiotelemetry seasonal locations and >95% when weighted by lek counts.Our results suggest that seasonal movements could be facilitated by increasing usable habitat space through management actions, as emphasized in Utah’s sage-grouse plan.