Catalogue Search | MBRL
Are you sure you want to remove the book from the shelf?
{{itemTitle}}
38,751
result(s) for
"hazard assessment"
Sort by:
Potential impacts of tephra fallout from a large-scale explosive eruption at Sakurajima volcano, Japan
We present an exposure analysis of infrastructure and lifeline to tephra fallout for a future large-scale explosive eruption of Sakurajima volcano. An eruption scenario is identified based on the field characterization of the last subplinian eruption at Sakurajima and a review of reports of the eruptions that occurred in the past six centuries. A scenario-based probabilistic hazard assessment is performed using the Tephra2 model, considering various eruption durations to reflect complex eruptive sequences of all considered reference eruptions. A quantitative exposure analysis of infrastructures and lifelines is presented primarily using open-access data. The post-event impact assessment of Magill et al. (Earth Planets Space 65:677–698, 2013) after the 2011 VEI 2 eruption of Shinmoedake is used to discuss the vulnerability and the resilience of infrastructures during a future large eruption of Sakurajima. Results indicate a main eastward dispersal, with longer eruption durations increasing the probability of tephra accumulation in proximal areas and reducing it in distal areas. The exposure analysis reveals that 2300 km of road network, 18 km
2
of urban area, and 306 km
2
of agricultural land have a 50% probability of being affected by an accumulation of tephra of 1 kg/m
2
. A simple qualitative exposure analysis suggests that the municipalities of Kagoshima, Kanoya, and Tarumizu are the most likely to suffer impacts. Finally, the 2011 VEI 2 eruption of Shinmoedake demonstrated that the already implemented mitigation strategies have increased resilience and improved recovery of affected infrastructures. Nevertheless, the extent to which these mitigation actions will perform during the VEI 4 eruption presented here is unclear and our hazard assessment points to possible damages on the Sakurajima peninsula and the neighboring municipality of Tarumizu.
Journal Article
Landslide hazard assessment based on Bayesian optimization–support vector machine in Nanping City, China
Landslide hazard assessment is critical for preventing and mitigating landslide disasters. The tuning of hyperparameters is of great importance to achieve better accuracy in a landslide hazard assessment model. In this study, a novel approach is proposed for landslide hazard assessment with support vector machine (SVM) as the primary model and Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm as the parameter tuning method. This study describes 1711 historical landslide disaster points in Nanping City, and a total of 12 landslide conditioning factors including elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, lithology, soil type, soil erosion, rainfall, river, land use, highway, and railway were selected. The multicollinearity diagnosis was performed on the factors using the Spearman correlation coefficient. For model validation, 1711 landslides and 1711 non-landslides were collected as the dataset and divided into a training dataset (50 %) and a testing dataset (50 %). The performance of the model was evaluated by the confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The results of the confusion matrix accuracy and the area under the ROC curve showed that the BO-SVM model (89.53 %, 0.97) performed better than the SVM model (84.91 %, 0.93). In addition, the landslide hazard maps generated by the BO-SVM model had better overall results than that by the SVM model.
Journal Article
Multi-hazard assessment modeling via multi-criteria analysis and GIS: a case study
Multi-hazard assessment modeling comprises an essential tool in any plan that aims to mitigate the impact of future natural disasters. For a particular area they can be generated by combining assessment maps for different types of natural hazards. In the present study, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) supported by a Geographical Information System (GIS) was utilized to initially produce assessment maps on hazards from landslides, floods and earthquakes and subsequently to combine them into a single multi-hazard map. Evaluation of the reliability of the proposed model predictions was performed through uncertainty analysis of the variables that we used for producing the final model. The drainage basin of Peneus (Pinios) River (Western Peloponnesus, Greece), an area that is prone to landslides, floods and seismic events, was selected for the implementation of the aforementioned approach. Our findings revealed that the high hazard zones are mainly distributed in the western and north-eastern part of the region under investigation. The calculated multi-hazard map, which corresponds to the potential urban development suitability map of the study area, was classified into five classes, namely of very low, low, moderate, high and very high suitability. The most suitable areas for urban development are distributed mostly in the eastern part, in agreement with the low and very low hazard level for the three considered natural hazards. In addition, by performing uncertainty analysis we showed that the spatial distribution of the suitability zones does not change significantly. Ultimately, the final map was verified using the actual inventory of landslides and floods that affected the study area. In this context, we showed that 80% of the landslide occurrences and all the recorded flood events fall within the boundaries of the moderate, low and very low suitability zones. Consequently, the predictive capacity of the applied method is quite good. Finally, the spatial distribution of the urban areas and the road network were compared with the derived suitability map and the results revealed that approximately 50% of both of them are located within areas susceptible to natural hazards. The proposed approach can be useful for engineers, planners and local authorities in spatial planning and natural hazard management.
Journal Article
Coastal disaster surveys and assessment for risk mitigation
\"This collection covers the essential concepts in the management of coastal disasters, outlining several field surveys of coastal disasters in the 21st century, including the Indian Ocean and Tohoku Tsunamis, and the storm surges of Hurricane Katrina, Cyclone Nargis, and Typhoon Haiyan. Measurements of flood heights, distributions of structural destruction, and residents' testimonies are reported, and the results are analysed and compared with past events and numerical simulations, with the reality of these disasters reconstructed. The book then covers the current understanding of disaster mechanisms and the most advanced tools for future simulation. Uniquely explains how to use disaster surveys along with simulations to mitigate risk. Combines pure scientific studies with practical trials and proposes future procedures for effective coastal disaster mitigation. Coastal Disaster Surveys and Assessment for Risk Mitigation is ideal for students in the disaster field as well as engineers who manage tsunamis, storm surges, high wave attacks and coastal erosion\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Assessing flood hazard using flood marks and analytic hierarchy process approach: a case study for the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam, Vietnam
The production of flood hazard assessment maps is an important component of flood risk assessment. This study analyses flood hazard using flood mark data. The chosen case study is the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam, Vietnam. The impacts of this event included 17 deaths, 230 injuries, 91,739 flooded properties, 11,530 ha of submerged and damaged agricultural land, 85,080 animals killed and widespread damage to roads, canals, dykes and embankments. The flood mark data include flood depth and flood duration. Analytic hierarchy process method is used to assess the criteria and sub-criteria of the flood hazard. The weights of criteria and sub-criteria are generated based on the judgements of decision-makers using this method. This assessment is combined into a single map using weighted linear combination, integrated with GIS to produce a flood hazard map. Previous research has usually not considered flood duration in flood hazard assessment maps. This factor has a rather strong influence on the livelihood of local communities in Quang Nam, with most agricultural land within the floodplain. A more comprehensive flood hazard assessment mapping process, with the additional consideration of flood duration, can make a significant contribution to flood risk management activities in Vietnam.
Journal Article
Enhanced Urban Flood Hazard Assessment by Stochastic Event Catalog
Assessing flood severity in urban areas is a pivotal task for urban resilience and climate adaptation. However, the lack of in situ measurements hinders direct spatial estimation of flood return periods, while conventional assumptions about rainstorm‐flood consistency introduce significant uncertainties due to rainstorm spatiotemporal variability (STV). This study proposes a novel framework that utilizes multivariate frequency analysis of flood variables at the street level (50 m) through a stochastic rainstorm‐flood event catalog. The rainstorm events in the catalog are generated by a random field generator and resampled to match the joint distribution of STV variables consistent with radar observations. Urban flood processes are then simulated by a hydrodynamic model for flood hazard assessment (FHA). We applied the framework to a rural‐urban watershed using 3,000 cases randomly resampled from the catalog. Results reveal that inundation characteristics respond more rapidly to increasing rainfall intensities than downstream flood peaks, particularly during the early stages of rainstorms. The complex joint probability structures of rainstorm severity and STV variables obscure the mechanistic control of individual factors on flood response. A significant underestimation of street‐level flood hazards occurs when assuming the same return periods (RPs) as those for watershed‐level hazards. The inconsistency between rainstorm and flood severities results in widespread underestimation of street‐level flood hazards in upstream regions, while traditional storm designs that neglect STV lead to overestimations in mid‐ and downstream areas. This study highlights the complex probabilistic behavior of spatially distributed flood hazards across multiple scales, enhancing the insights and methodologies for street‐level FHA.
Journal Article