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Parameterization of submarine melting represents a large source of uncertainty in modeling ice sheet response to climate change. Here we present in situ observations of melt at near‐vertical ice faces using a novel instrument platform mounted rigidly to icebergs. We investigate boundary layer dynamics controlling melt across 31 measurement periods that span a range of momentum and thermal forcing (1–12 cm/s flows and 3–10 K). While melt generally scales with velocity and temperature, we find substantially enhanced melt linked with unsteady forcing. Several implementations of the three‐equation melt parameterization show melt can be predicted within a factor of 2 if the model is evaluated with peak near‐boundary velocities and flows are quasi‐steady. However, if flows are unsteady or the model is evaluated with low‐resolution velocities, melt is underpredicted by 2–75×.$75\\times .$We conclude that understanding the detailed character of near‐boundary flows is critical for submarine melt predictions. Plain Language Summary Glaciers are outlets for the world's ice to flow and melt into the ocean as fresh water. Despite the importance of understanding how glaciers melt and where that water goes, our knowledge of the environment where the glacier meets the ocean is limited due to the challenges of working under actively calving ice cliffs. To address this gap, we developed a remotely deployed instrument that measures melt rate and ocean speed and temperature along near‐vertical, underwater ice faces. In this study, we present results from the initial set of deployments at the sides of icebergs in southeast Alaska. We find that the flows along icebergs can vary rapidly, and that this may enhance melt rates. Furthermore, this enhanced melt rate is not captured by the standard melt models, resulting in a significant underprediction of melt. Therefore, accurate melt rate predictions at glaciers and icebergs require a realistic representation of both ocean characteristics and enhanced melt rate due to rapidly varying flows. Key Points Ice‐ocean boundary layer forcing varies on short timescales; flow unsteadiness appears to enhance melt rate Observed flows violate steady shear assumptions of ice‐ocean models, which underpredict observed melt by a factor of 2–75 Melt models exhibit increased skill when evaluated with instantaneous, highly‐resolved boundary layer conditions

At marine‐terminating glaciers, both buoyant plumes and local currents energize turbulent exchanges that control ice melt. Because of challenges in making centimeter‐scale measurements at glaciers, these dynamics at near‐vertical ice‐ocean boundaries are poorly constrained. Here we present the first observations from instruments robotically bolted to an underwater ice face, and use these to elucidate the interplay between buoyancy and externally forced currents in meltwater plumes. Our observations captured two limiting cases of the flow. When external currents are weak, meltwater buoyancy energizes the turbulence and dominates the near‐boundary stress. When external currents strengthen, the plume diffuses far from the boundary and the associated turbulence decreases. As a result, even relatively weak buoyant melt plumes are as effective as moderate shear flows in delivering heat to the ice. These are the first in‐situ observations to demonstrate how buoyant melt plumes energize near‐boundary turbulence, and why their dynamics are critical in predicting ice melt. Plain Language Summary Melting glaciers are projected to produce 10s of centimeters of sea level rise over the next few decades. Despite this threat, the fundamental fluid dynamics which drive melt at tidewater glaciers remain poorly characterized. This is primarily attributed to challenges associated with measuring the temperature and velocity of ocean water at the submerged cliffs of actively calving glaciers. To this end, we have developed a robotically deployed instrument that can be bolted to a glacier's face. This instrument is capable of measuring temperature and kinetic energy of ocean waters within a few centimeters of the ice, representing the first measurements of their kind. Our observations demonstrate the ways in which meltwater at ice boundaries can accelerate melt. In particular, the meltwater tends to be less salty (and hence lighter) than the nearby ocean waters (which are salty, warm and heavy), so the meltwater rises along the ice face, creating an energetic, near boundary flow. With our new measurements, we show that these flows are as important as large‐scale currents in providing energy to the ice to fuel melt. We anticipate these data will help our community create more accurate models of ice melt needed to predict the advance or retreat of marine ice cliffs of Greenland, Alaska and Antarctica. Key Points Robotic observations at a submerged near‐vertical iceberg face capture turbulent dynamics of buoyant melt plumes and background currents Buoyant plumes extend 20–50 cm from the boundary and generate broad‐spectrum temperature and velocity fluctuations that drive horizontal turbulent transports of heat When ambient horizontal flows are weak, buoyant plumes are the dominant source of boundary layer turbulence that drives heat flux to the ice

Buoyancy fluxes and submarine melt rates at vertical ice‐ocean interfaces are commonly parameterized using theories derived for unbounded free plumes. A Large Eddy Simulation is used to analyze the disparate dynamics of free plumes and wall‐bounded plumes; the distinctions between the two are supported by recent theoretical and experimental results. Modifications to parameterizations consistent with these simulations are tested and compared to results from numerical and laboratory experiments of meltwater plumes. These modifications include 50% weaker entrainment and a distinct plume‐driven friction velocity in the shear boundary layer up to 8 times greater than the externally‐driven friction velocity. Using these updated plume parameter modifications leads to 40 times the ambient melt rate predicted by commonly used parameterizations at vertical glacier faces, which is consistent with observed melt rates at LeConte Glacier, Alaska. Plain Language Summary Over the past two decades, the outward flow of tidewater glaciers has accelerated, which has contributed to sea level rise. There is growing evidence that this acceleration has been triggered by melting at ice‐ocean interfaces, where the ocean comes into contact with and drives the melting of glaciers. In particular, commonly used models and theories describing the ocean turbulence and melt dynamics at vertical ice‐ocean interfaces underestimate observed melt rates by an order of magnitude. This study tests proposed changes to existing theories and uses a turbulence‐resolving ocean model to validate this alternative (plume with a wall) theory instead of commonly used (plume without a wall) theories; the first type is more appropriate and better takes into account how ocean turbulence drives the melting of a vertical ice wall. We show that these proposed changes are consistent with existing melt observations and are an important step toward understanding a critical process that may help us improve sea level rise predictions. Key Points A modified wall‐bounded plume parameterization motivated by recent numerical/lab work is proposed as an alternative to free plume theory Subglacial discharge plume simulations at a vertical ice face are consistent with entrainment/plume dynamics from wall‐bounded plume theory Melt rate estimates using updated parameters are consistent with observations at LeConte Glacier (40 times greater than standard estimates)

Antarctic ice shelves are losing mass at increasing rates, yet the ice‐ocean interactions that cause significant ice loss are not well understood. A new approach of high‐resolution phase‐change simulations is used to model vertical ice melting into a stratified ocean. The ocean dynamics show complicated interplay between a turbulent buoyant meltwater plume and double‐diffusive layers, while the ice actively melts and changes topography. At room temperatures, the double‐diffusive layer thickness is closely linked to ice scalloping. At lower, more realistic ocean temperatures, the meltwater plume becomes prominent with a laminar‐to‐turbulent transition imprinting an indent on the melting ice. The double‐diffusive layer thickness is consistent with scaling prediction, while the real‐world application demonstrates reasonably good matching of the scaling prediction for some Antarctic regions. Our study is a key first step toward the future use of high‐resolution phase‐change fluid dynamics simulations to better understand Antarctic ice shelves in a changing climate. Plain Language Summary Future climate scenarios and sea level rise are closely tied to the accelerating loss of Antarctic ice shelves, which lose significant mass by melting into the surrounding ocean. However, the extent of ice shelf mass loss in a changing climate is currently not well understood, with lack of knowledge on the fine‐scale ice‐ocean interactions presenting a key restriction on the accuracy of climate predictions. Here, we use a new suite of numerical computer simulations to model an ice face melting into the ocean. In particular, our simulations allow the ice face to melt back and change shape, which previous numerical simulations could not attempt. We see interesting ocean dynamics known as “double‐diffusive layers” that occur because temperature and salinity both affect the water density. In addition, we also see a buoyant meltwater plume evolve next to the ice face. Both the double‐diffusive layers and meltwater plume can influence the ice melting and shape. Our results are a first step in using these new phase‐change simulations to model ice‐ocean interactions, and will help to better understand the Antarctic response to a changing climate. Key Points High‐resolution phase‐change simulations are used to examine a vertical ice face melting into a stratified ocean at low temperatures A distinct laminar‐to‐turbulent transition occurs in the meltwater plume as it rises, accompanied by an indent in the ice at the transition Double‐diffusive layers adjacent to the turbulent plume are consistent with scaling predictions and are relevant to the ocean application

Projections of sea‐level rise from ice‐sheet shrinkage in a warming world have large uncertainties, linked to limited knowledge of changes at the ocean‐ice sheet interface. This interface most typically is modeled as a grounding line, across which still‐connected ice flows into the ocean to float as an ice shelf, or where icebergs calve from a cliff before the ice begins to float. But, extensive and rapidly increasing evidence shows that this is really a grounding zone, and that processes in this grounding zone omitted from many models could exert major controls on sea‐level rise. Plain Language Summary Marine‐terminating glaciers flow into the ocean across extensive grounding zones. These kilometers‐long and glacier‐wide zones represent the last broad region of glacier contact with the rock and sediments below before the ice enters the ocean as a floating ice shelf or calved icebergs. Loss of this basal drag along with enhanced basal melting caused by tidally driven seawater intrusion leads to faster outflow and rapid thinning of the overlying ice. As a result of the local thinning, grounding zones retreat inland and sea level rises with more loss of previously grounded ice. Most ice‐sheet models used in sea‐level projections do not include grounding‐zone processes, but rather stop their ice‐ocean interactions at a grounding line. They are thereby omitting important dynamic feedbacks and underestimating future sea‐level contributions from the marine‐based sectors of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Key Points Tidally modulated seawater intrusion leads to loss of ice‐bed contact as well as significant (maximal) basal melting within grounding zones The future dynamics of marine outlet glaciers are ultimately controlled by coupled processes operating within and through grounding zones Despite the importance of grounding zones to ice‐sheet dynamics, most ice‐sheet models used in sea‐level projections do not include them

In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal‐scale variability or fine‐scale simulations for process‐based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord‐scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse‐resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections. Plain Language Summary Over the past several decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing ice and contributing to sea‐level rise. About half of this ice loss is induced by melt that occurs where glaciers meet the ocean. Using coarse‐scale ocean models that simulate circulation around the globe, previous studies have noted a strong link between ocean temperature and enhanced glacier ice loss. However, due to the small scale of Greenland's fjords, coarse models are unable to directly quantify circulation in these fjords and melt on submerged glaciers. In this study, we develop a new framework to “zoom in” on a fjord, using high‐resolution models driven by larger coarse‐resolution models. In this approach, we simulate melt on one of Greenland's biggest glaciers and find that periods of higher melt coincide with more ice loss as observed from satellites. Since this framework is adaptable to other regions, it could also be used to simulate melt on other glaciers and support estimates of future sea‐level rise. Key Points Subsurface temperature variability is simulated in a narrow fjord network using regional models downscaled from a global state estimate Modeled increases in ocean melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier coincide with the onset of acceleration in 2005 and retreat and thinning in 2011 Model variations in shelf‐to‐fjord ocean properties match with observations, providing a basis to estimate ocean forcing in ice projections

High-latitude atmospheric warming is impacting freshwater cycling, requiring techniques for monitoring the hydrology of sparsely-gauged regions. The submarine runoff of tidewater glaciers presents a particular challenge. We evaluate the utility of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery for monitoring turbid meltwater plume variability in the glacier lagoon Jökulsárlón, Iceland, for a short interval before the onset of the main melt season. Total Suspended Solids concentrations ( TSS ) of surface waters are related to remotely-sensed reflectance via empirical calibration between in-situ-sampled TSS and reflectance in a MODIS band 1-equivalent wavelength window. This study differs from previous ones in its application to an overturning tidewater glacier plume, rather than one derived from river runoff. The linear calibration improves on previous studies by facilitating a wider range of plume metrics than areal extent, notably pixel-by-pixel TSS values. Increasing values of minimum plume TSS over the study interval credibly represent rising overall turbidity in the lagoon as melting accumulates. Plume extent responds principally to consistently-strong offshore winds. Further work is required to determine the temporal persistence of the calibration, but remote plume observation holds promise for monitoring hydrological outputs from ungauged or ungaugeable systems.

The Ross Sea is known for showing the greatest sea-ice increase, as observed globally, particularly from 1979 to 2015. However, corresponding changes in sea-ice thickness and production in the Ross Sea are not known, nor how these changes have impacted water masses, carbon fluxes, biogeochemical processes and availability of micronutrients. The PIPERS project sought to address these questions during an autumn ship campaign in 2017 and two spring airborne campaigns in 2016 and 2017. PIPERS used a multidisciplinary approach of manned and autonomous platforms to study the coupled air/ice/ocean/biogeochemical interactions during autumn and related those to spring conditions. Unexpectedly, the Ross Sea experienced record low sea ice in spring 2016 and autumn 2017. The delayed ice advance in 2017 contributed to (1) increased ice production and export in coastal polynyas, (2) thinner snow and ice cover in the central pack, (3) lower sea-ice Chl-a burdens and differences in sympagic communities, (4) sustained ocean heat flux delaying ice thickening and (5) a melting, anomalously southward ice edge persisting into winter. Despite these impacts, airborne observations in spring 2017 suggest that winter ice production over the continental shelf was likely not anomalous.

Understanding grounding line dynamics is critical for projecting glacier evolution and sea level rise. Observations from satellite radar interferometry reveal rapid grounding line migration forced by oceanic tides that are several kilometers larger than predicted by hydrostatic equilibrium, indicating the transition from grounded to floating ice is more complex than previously thought. Recent studies suggest seawater intrusion beneath grounded ice may play a role in driving rapid ice loss. Here, we investigate its impact on the evolution of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, using an ice sheet model. We compare model results with observed changes in grounding line position, velocity, and ice elevation between 2010 and 2022. We match the observed retreat, speed up, and thinning using 3‐km‐long seawater intrusion that drive peak ice melt rates of 50 m/yr; but we cannot obtain the same agreement without seawater intrusion. Including seawater intrusion in glacier modeling will increase the sensitivity to ocean warming. Plain Language Summary Relatively warm seawater melts marine‐terminating glaciers from below. Recent observations suggest that seawater flows below grounded ice at high tide. The presence of seawater at this boundary, referred to as seawater intrusion, has the potential to increase glacier mass loss. We test this hypothesis on Petermann Glacier, Greenland, using an ice sheet flow model. We run the model to reconstruct the glacier's behavior from 2010 to 2022 with and without seawater intrusion. We compare the results with satellite observations of velocity, grounding line position, and ice thinning. When we use enhanced ice melt rates from kilometer‐scale seawater intrusion, we match the observed retreat, speed up, and thinning. When we do not, the model fails to replicate the observations. Seawater intrusion may play a critical role in glacier evolution. Adding this process to ice flow models will increase their sensitivity to ocean warming and projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. Key Points Ice melt caused by seawater intrusion in the grounding zone explains the observed grounding line retreat of Petermann Glacier Without seawater intrusion in the grounding zone, we do not replicate the full extent of observed retreat Including seawater intrusion in the grounding zone increases glacier mass loss

Quantifying kinetic energy (KE) and enstrophy transfer, mixing, and dissipation in the Arctic Ocean is key to understanding polar ocean dynamics, which are critical components of the global climate system. However, in ice‐covered regions, limited eddy‐resolving observations make characterizing KE and enstrophy transfer across scales challenging. Here, we use satellite‐derived sea ice floe rotation rates to infer the surface ocean enstrophy spectra in the marginal ice zone. Employing a coarse‐graining approach, we treat each floe as a local spatial filter. The method is validated with idealized sea ice–ocean simulations and applied to floe observations in the Beaufort Gyre. Our results reveal steepened spectral slopes at low sea ice concentrations, indicating enhanced mesoscale activity during the spring‐to‐summer transition. High‐resolution simulations support these findings but overestimate enstrophy, highlighting the need for eddy‐resolving observations. Our two‐dimensional spectral estimates are the first of their kind, providing a scalable approach for mapping under‐ice ocean eddy characteristics.