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The processes responsible for freshwater flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), ice‐shelf basal melting and iceberg calving, are generally poorly represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we document the cryosphere configuration of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1.2. This includes simulating Antarctic ice‐shelf basal melting, which has been implemented through simulating the ocean circulation within static Antarctic ice‐shelf cavities, allowing for the ability to calculate ice‐shelf basal melt rates from the associated heat and freshwater fluxes. In addition, we added the capability to prescribe forcing from iceberg melt, allowing for realistic representation of the other dominant mass loss process from the AIS. In standard resolution simulations (using a noneddying ocean) under preindustrial climate forcing, we find high sensitivity of modeled ocean/ice shelf interactions to the ocean state, which can result in a transition to a high basal melt regime under the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), presenting a significant challenge to representing the ocean/ice shelf system in a coupled ESM. We show that inclusion of a spatially dependent parameterization of eddy‐induced transport reduces biases in water mass properties on the Antarctic continental shelf. With these improvements, E3SM produces realistic ice‐shelf basal melt rates across the continent that are generally within the range inferred from observations. The accurate representation of ice‐shelf basal melting within a coupled ESM is an important step toward reducing uncertainties in projections of the Antarctic response to climate change and Antarctica's contribution to global sea‐level rise. Plain Language Summary The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has the potential to have broad impacts on global climate, perhaps most notably in contributing to sea‐level rise. The current generation of Earth System Models (ESMs) do not accurately represent the two primary means in which ice is lost from the AIS, through melting at the base of ice shelves floating on the ocean and the calving of icebergs. This limits our ability to make climate projections that incorporate the impacts of the AIS in a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate a novel capability to model one of those processes, ice‐shelf basal melting, in an ESM. We demonstrate the ability to simulate ice‐shelf basal melt rates across many Antarctic ice shelves that are in line with present day observations. We also find that, for certain ice shelves, modeled ice‐shelf basal melting can experience a rapid transition to high melting far above present‐day estimates, and this simulated high melting can be mitigated through improved ocean physics. Key Points Capabilities have been added to an Earth System Model to model realistic Antarctic ice‐shelf basal melt fluxes and prescribe iceberg forcing Simulated basal melt rates have a strong sensitivity to the ocean mesoscale eddy parameterization For one choice of the mesoscale eddy parameterization, the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf transitions to a high melt regime

Sea level rise contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet is influenced by changes in glacier and ice shelf front position. Still, little is known about seasonal glacier and ice shelf front fluctuations as the manual delineation of calving fronts from remote sensing imagery is very time-consuming. The major challenge of automatic calving front extraction is the low contrast between floating glacier and ice shelf fronts and the surrounding sea ice. Additionally, in previous decades, remote sensing imagery over the often cloud-covered Antarctic coastline was limited. Nowadays, an abundance of Sentinel-1 imagery over the Antarctic coastline exists and could be used for tracking glacier and ice shelf front movement. To exploit the available Sentinel-1 data, we developed a processing chain allowing automatic extraction of the Antarctic coastline from Seninel-1 imagery and the creation of dense time series to assess calving front change. The core of the proposed workflow is a modified version of the deep learning architecture U-Net. This convolutional neural network (CNN) performs a semantic segmentation on dual-pol Sentinel-1 data and the Antarctic TanDEM-X digital elevation model (DEM). The proposed method is tested for four training and test areas along the Antarctic coastline. The automatically extracted fronts deviate on average 78 m in training and 108 m test areas. Spatial and temporal transferability is demonstrated on an automatically extracted 15-month time series along the Getz Ice Shelf. Between May 2017 and July 2018, the fronts along the Getz Ice Shelf show mostly an advancing tendency with the fastest moving front of DeVicq Glacier with 726 ± 20 m/yr.

The processes responsible for freshwater flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) - ice-shelf basal melting and iceberg calving - are generally poorly represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we document the cryosphere configuration of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1.2. This includes simulating Antarctic ice-shelf basal melting, which has been implemented through simulating the ocean circulation within static Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, allowing for the ability to calculate ice- shelf basal melt rates from the associated heat and freshwater fluxes. In addition, we added the capability to prescribe forcing from iceberg melt, allowing for realistic representation of the other dominant mass loss process from the AIS. In standard resolution simulations (using a non-eddying ocean) under pre-industrial climate forcing, we find high sensitivity of modeled ocean/ice shelf interactions to the ocean state, which can result in a transition to a high basal melt regime under the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), presenting a significant challenge to representing the ocean/ice shelf system in a coupled ESM. We show that inclusion of a spatially dependent parameterization of eddy-induced transport reduces biases in water mass properties on the Antarctic continental shelf. With these improvements, E3SM produces realistic ice-shelf basal melt rates across the continent that are generally within the range inferred from observations. The accurate representation of ice-shelf basal melting within a coupled ESM is an important step towards reducing uncertainties in projections of the Antarctic response to climate change and Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise.

Recent observations indicate that two cryospheric components, namely the Antarctic sea ice and ice shelf over the Southern Ocean, have been changing over the decades. Here we analyze results from an ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model to examine variability in the Antarctic sea-ice extent and ice-shelf basal melting. The model reproduces seasonal and interannual variability in the Antarctic sea-ice extent and demonstrates that summertime ice-shelf basal melting is closely anti-correlated with the sea-ice extent anomaly. For example, the unprecedented minimum of the Antarctic sea-ice extent in the 2016 spring was accompanied by a substantial increase in the Antarctic ice-shelf melting in the model. Detailed analysis of Antarctic coastal water masses flowing into the ice-shelf cavities illustrates the physical linkage in the strong anti-correlation. This study suggests that the Antarctic summer sea-ice extent in the regions where the sea-ice edge approaches the Antarctic coastline can be a proxy for Antarctic coastal water masses and subsequent ice-shelf basal melting.

Melt and supraglacial lakes are precursors to ice shelf collapse and subsequent accelerated ice sheet mass loss. We used data from the Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 satellites to develop a threshold-based method for detection of lakes found on the Antarctic ice shelves, calculate their depths and thus their volumes. To achieve this, we focus on four key areas: the Amery, Roi Baudouin, Nivlisen, and Riiser-Larsen ice shelves, which are all characterized by extensive surface meltwater features. To validate our products, we compare our results against those obtained by an independent method based on a supervised classification scheme (e.g., Random Forest algorithm). Additional verification is provided by manual inspection of results for nearly 1000 Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 images. Our dual-sensor approach will enable constructing high-resolution time series of lake volumes. Therefore, to ensure interoperability between the two datasets, we evaluate depths from contemporaneous Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 image pairs. Our assessments point to a high degree of correspondence, producing an average R2 value of 0.85, no bias, and an average RMSE of 0.2 m. We demonstrate our method’s ability to characterize lake evolution by presenting first evidence of drainage events outside of the Antarctic Peninsula on the Amery Ice shelf. The methods presented here pave the way to upscaling throughout the Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 observational record across Antarctica to produce a first-ever continental dataset of supraglacial lake volumes. Such a dataset will improve our understanding of the influence of surface hydrology on ice shelf stability, and thus, future projections of Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise.

The floating ice shelf of Petermann glacier interacts directly with the ocean and is thought to lose at least 80% of its mass through basal melting. Based on three opportunistic ocean surveys in Petermann Fjord we describe the basic oceanography: the circulation at the fjord mouth, the hydrographic structure beneath the ice shelf, the oceanic heat delivered to the under‐ice cavity, and the fate of the resulting melt water. The 1100 m deep fjord is separated from neighboring Hall Basin by a sill between 350 and 450 m deep. Fjord bottom waters are renewed by episodic spillover at the sill of Atlantic water from the Arctic. Glacial melt water appears on the northeast side of the fjord at depths between 200 m and that of the glacier's grounding line (about 500 m). The fjord circulation is fundamentally three‐dimensional; satellite imagery and geostrophic calculations suggest a cyclonic gyre within the fjord mouth, with outflow on the northeast side. Tidal flows are similar in magnitude to the geostrophic flow. The oceanic heat flux into the fjord appears more than sufficient to account for the observed rate of basal melting. Cold, low‐salinity water originating in the surface layer of Nares Strait in winter intrudes far under the ice. This may limit basal melting to the inland half of the shelf. The melt rate and long‐term stability of Petermann ice shelf may depend on regional sea ice cover and fjord geometry, in addition to the supply of oceanic heat entering the fjord.

This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5 ∘ C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter ( ∼ 2 ∘ C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation ( ∼ 5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf.

Iceberg calving from all Antarctic ice shelves has never been directly measured, despite playing a crucial role in ice sheet mass balance. Rapid changes to iceberg calving naturally arise from the sporadic detachment of large tabular bergs but can also be triggered by climate forcing. Here we provide a direct empirical estimate of mass loss due to iceberg calving and melting from Antarctic ice shelves. We find that between 2005 and 2011, the total mass loss due to iceberg calving of 755 ± 24 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) is only half the total loss due to basal melt of 1516 ± 106 Gt/y. However, we observe widespread retreat of ice shelves that are currently thinning. Net mass loss due to iceberg calving for these ice shelves (302 ± 27 Gt/y) is comparable in magnitude to net mass loss due to basal melt (312 ± 14 Gt/y). Moreover, we find that iceberg calving from these decaying ice shelves is dominated by frequent calving events, which are distinct from the less frequent detachment of isolated tabular icebergs associated with ice shelves in neutral or positive mass balance regimes. Our results suggest that thinning associated with ocean-driven increased basal melt can trigger increased iceberg calving, implying that iceberg calving may play an overlooked role in the demise of shrinking ice shelves, and is more sensitive to ocean forcing than expected from steady state calving estimates. Significance The floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet (“ice shelves”) help to hold back the flow of the grounded parts, determining the contribution to global sea level rise. Using satellite images, we measured, for the first time, all icebergs larger than 1 km ² calving from the entire Antarctic coastline, and the state of health of all the ice shelves. Some large ice shelves are growing while many smaller ice shelves are shrinking. We find high rates of iceberg calving from Antarctic ice shelves that are undergoing basal melt-induced thinning, which suggests the fate of ice shelves may be more sensitive to ocean forcing than previously thought.

Water mass transformation (WMT) around the Antarctic margin controls Antarctica Bottom Water formation and the abyssal limb of the global meridional overturning circulation, besides mediating ocean-ice shelf exchange, ice sheet stability and its contribution to sea level rise. However, the mechanisms controlling the rate of WMT in the Antarctic shelf are poorly understood due to the lack of observations and the inability of climate models to simulate those mechanisms, in particular beneath the floating ice shelves. We used a circum-Antarctic ocean-ice shelf model to assess the contribution of surface fluxes, mixing, and ocean-ice shelf interaction to the WMT on the continental shelf. The salt budget dominates the WMT rates, with only a secondary contribution from the heat budget. Basal melt of ice shelves drives buoyancy gain at lighter density classes (27.2<σ θ < 27.6 kg m -3 ), while salt input associated with sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas drives buoyancy loss at heavier densities (σ θ > 27.6). We found a large sensitivity of the WMT rates to model horizontal resolution, tides and topography within the Filchner-Ronne, East and West Antarctica ice shelf cavities. In the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, an anticyclonic circulation in front of the Ronne Depression regulates the rates of basal melting/refreezing and WMT and is substantially affected by tides and model resolution. Model resolution is also found to affect the Antarctic Slope Current in both East and West Antarctica, impacting the on-shelf heat delivery, basal melt and WMT. Moreover, the representation of the ice shelf draft associated with model resolution impacts the freezing temperature and thus basal melt and WMT rates in the East Antarctica. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale features of the flow and topography, and to include the effects of tidal forcing, to adequately represent water mass transformations on the shelf that directly influence the abyssal global overturning circulation.

The weakening and/or removal of floating ice shelves in Antarctica can induce inland ice flow acceleration. Numerical modelling suggests these processes will play an important role in Antarctica's future sea-level contribution, but our understanding of the mechanisms that lead to ice tongue/shelf collapse is incomplete and largely based on observations from the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. Here, we use remote sensing of structural glaciology and ice velocity from 2001 to 2020 and analyse potential ocean-climate forcings to identify mechanisms that triggered the rapid disintegration of ~2445 km2 of ice mélange and part of the Voyeykov Ice Shelf in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica between 27 March and 28 May 2007. Results show disaggregation was pre-conditioned by weakening of the ice tongue's structural integrity and was triggered by mélange removal driven by a regional atmospheric circulation anomaly and a less extensive latent-heat polynya. Disaggregation did not induce inland ice flow acceleration, but our observations highlight an important mechanism through which floating termini can be removed, whereby the break-out of mélange and multiyear landfast sea ice triggers disaggregation of a structurally-weak ice shelf. These observations highlight the need for numerical ice-sheet models to account for interactions between sea-ice, mélange and ice shelves.