Explore the vast range of titles available.

This paper investigates the sensitivities of Singapore’s sectoral industrial production to local and global business cycle variations using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in the nonlinear and asymmetric cointegration framework. By employing monthly time series data from Jan 1983 to Dec 2022 the study corroborates the commonly held view that durable industries are pro-cyclic to thelocal business cycle. However, the nature of cyclic sensitivity is different if viewed from a global perspective. Industries including pharmaceutical, computer, and motor vehicles industries flourish in both the local and global business cycle booms. Almost all industries having long-run linkages with global industrial production are also affected by global production growth in the short run. However, consistent with earlier studies for Southeast Asian countries, very few industries exhibit short-run asymmetries in their relationship with local and global business cycles. We found that incorporating long-run information also improves the forecasting ability of sectoral industrial production growth in Singapore.

This article is an empirical examination of why some industries are far more cyclical than others. Using highly disaggregated panel data, we examine which elements of technology and market structure appear to be most closely associated with differences in cyclicality across industries. We find that durable-goods industries are approximately three times more cyclical than nondurable-goods industries. Within durable-goods industries, the proportion of variable and quasi-fixed factor inputs, market concentration, and labor hoarding appear to be important determinants of cyclical behavior. In contrast, for nondurable-goods industries, we find little systematic relationship between cyclicality and market characteristics.

The paper aims to study whether the non-alignment between sugar and sugarcane prices creates cyclicality in the Indian sugar sector. This paper found no non-alignment between sugar and sugarcane prices in India. Thus, the non-alignment between sugar and sugarcane prices cannot create the cycle. One need a better explanation for the cyclicality and, therefore, a better solution. Otherwise, it will affect the livelihood of a large number of people in India.

This paper presents the application of prediction in the analysis of market price volatility in Polish conditions of wood processing by-products in the form of biomass. The ARIMA model, which takes into account cyclical, seasonal, irregular fluctuations of historical data on the basis of which the forecast and long-term trends of selected wood products were made, was used in predicting prices. Comparisons were made between the ARIMA prediction method and the multiplicative Winters–Holt model. During the period studied (2017–2022), the changes in the market price of biomass were characterized by a wide spread of values. On average, the price of these products increased from 2017 to the end of 2022 by 125%. The price prediction analysis showed seasonal fluctuations in the case of wood chips. The uncertainty in price prediction is due to changes in supply resulting from the influence of global factors. The Diebold–Mariano test of matching accuracy confirms that the price prediction of the analyzed by-product sorts using the ARIMA and WH models is possible. The conclusion reached by comparing these two methods is that each can be used under certain market conditions of certain assortments. In the case of a stable wood product, the choice of the ARIMA model should be resolved, while in the case of price volatile products, WH will be a better choice. The difference between the predicted and actual price with ARIMA ranged from 2.4% to 11.6% and for WH from 3.7% to 29.8%.

PurposeThe “public interest” of financial institutions was used as an argument to intervene in accounting practices. The Bank of Spain's standard was not compatible with International Accounting Standard (henceforth IAS) 39 and the Spanish banking sector had become one of the most provisioned in Europe. This makes it an interesting case study of the relationship between provisioning and income smoothing. The 2008 financial crisis revealed that provisions were insufficient and a reinforcement regulation process began in 2012. This paper aims to examine whether, since 2012, the Bank of Spain's regulatory effort on impairment accounting standards has induced less income smoothing, correcting its countercyclical effect.Design/methodology/approachA regression model is applied during the period 2005–2020, to test whether there is a trend change in the correlation between the level of provisions and annual earnings in 2012.FindingsThe results show that from 2012 onwards (when the Bank of Spain reinforced the regulation on provisioning), there was a correction in income smoothing behaviour.Originality/valueThis study provides empirical evidence that reinforces the claim that accounting policy can affect decision-making accounting practices, in this particular case, at the Bank of Spain.

PurposeThis paper estimates the sensitivities of the output of the manufacturing industries of the four Southeast countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore) to both the country-specific and global business cycle fluctuations. The study investigates whether the business cycle exposures of these industries differ to their nature classified as producing durable or nondurable goods and also to booms and recessions.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data on sectoral manufacturing production indices for major manufacturing industries over the period from 1999 to 2018, this paper uses the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)–based generalized least square estimator to estimate the exposures of each industry for each of the four countries to local and world business cycle.FindingsThe individual country analysis indicates that generally the sensitivities of the ASEAN manufacturing industries to booms and recessions are different from the pattern observed in the developed countries and Russia. We do not find evidence consistent with the commonly held view among economists and business managers that demand for durable goods flourishes in booms and falls in recessions. Also, very few industries exhibit an asymmetric reaction to booms and busts. However, the analysis of panel data reveals the expected pattern of industrial sensitivities to the local business cycle only.Originality/valueThe paper makes several contributions. Firstly, the model proposed in the paper estimates sensitivities of industries to both the local and global business cycle variations. Secondly, the model enables us to explicitly test the asymmetric reaction of industries to booms and busts. Thirdly, the paper is the first attempt to estimating business cycle exposures for manufacturing industries in emerging markets.

Testing cyclicality of fiscal policy is pertinent in any country to observe its type of cyclicality with the business cycle. In the oil abundant economy, oil price and trade openness may also play a role in determining the fiscal policy cyclicality. This research probes the role of economic growth, trade openness, and oil price on government consumption growth to verify the type of cyclicality in Saudi Arabia from 1971 to 2018. The cointegration test of Pesaran (2001) is utilized to test the cyclicality hypothesis with augmented critical bound statistics developed by Kripfganz and Schneider (2019). We corroborate the long and short-run relationships in the fiscal model of Saudi Arabia. Further, procyclicality is proved in the long run and countercyclicality is corroborated in the short run with a one-year lag effect. Moreover, government revenue has a positive effect on expenditure. However, oil prices and trade openness could not affect government spending.

This study investigated whether the quality of governance, trustworthiness, and confidence impacts bank credit growth. In addition, we examined credit growth cyclicality in 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. By employing data concerning 282 banks between 2012 and 2019, this study found that trustworthiness boosted bank credit growth. Overall, the increased quality of governance was found to increase credit growth, except for the specific indicators of voice and accountability and political stability, which were found not to influence bank credit growth. Moreover, similar to prior findings in related fields, the empirical results of this study confirmed the complementary effect of informal and formal institutions on bank credit growth. Lastly, results indicated that banks were pro-cyclical regarding credit growth. Overall, the results of this study highlighted the role of the supervisory powers of governments in boosting credit expansion, mainly during economic upturns.

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether the cyclicality of local real estate prices affects the systematic risk of local firms using a geography-based measure of land availability as a quasi-exogenous proxy for real estate price cyclicality. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the geography-based land availability measure as a proxy for the procyclicality of real estate prices and the location of a firm’s headquarters as a proxy for the location of its real estate assets. Four-factor asset pricing model (market, size, value and momentum factors) is used to examine whether firms headquartered in more land-constrained metropolitan statistical areas have higher systematic risks. Findings The results show that real estate prices are more procyclical in areas with lower land availability and firms headquartered in these areas have higher systematic risk. This effect is more pronounced for firms with higher real estate holdings as a ratio of their tangible assets. Moreover, there are no abnormal returns to trading strategies based on land availability, consistent with stock market betas reflecting this local real estate factor. Research limitations/implications This paper contributes to the literature on local asset pricing factors, the collateral role of firms’ real estate holdings and the co-movement of security prices of geographically close firms. Practical implications This paper has important managerial implications by showing that, when firms decide on the location of their buildings (e.g. headquarters building, manufacturing plant and retail outlet), the location’s influence on systematic risk should be part of the decision-making process. Originality/value This paper is among the first to use a geography-based measure of land availability to study whether the procyclicality of local real estate prices influences firm risk independent of the procyclicality of the local economy. Thus, both the portfolio formed and firm-level analyses provide a more direct evidence of the positive relation between the procyclicality of local real estate prices and firm risk.

The ECB announcement to reduce capital requirements for market risk to smooth pro-cyclicality, published in April 2020, is a good starting point to discuss the impact of regulation on individual banks on the stability of the whole banking and financial system. A large number of theoretical articles and a few empirical papers back the existence of an amplification effect on market volatility caused by the use of risk management measures (e.g. value-at-risk, VaR, for market risk) for regulatory purposes. However, to the best of my knowledge, no paper has empirically investigated the direct relation between the level of tightness of VaR risk limits and market volatility. In this article, I show that market volatility is positively related to past values of the measure of the tightness of the market risk limit, with an overshooting process of adjustment toward equilibrium. The analysis is limited to Italy. The empirical results, based on a unique dataset of VaR values and on other publicly available market data, are in line with the theoretical findings and are novel empirical evidence. They open the way to additional research on how to manage the channels of transmission of the amplification and overshooting effects from the risk management measure to systemic variables, to avoid unintended consequences of the application of individual supervision measures on the whole system.