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In information geometry, there has been extensive research on the deep connections between differential geometric structures, such as the Fisher metric and the α-connection, and the statistical theory for statistical models satisfying regularity conditions. However, the study of information geometry for non-regular statistical models is insufficient, and a one-sided truncated exponential family (oTEF) is one example of these models. In this paper, based on the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators, we provide a Riemannian metric for the oTEF. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the oTEF has an α = 1 parallel prior distribution and that the scalar curvature of a certain submodel, including the Pareto family, is a negative constant.

This study considers a new decomposition of an extended divergence on a foliation by deformed probability simplexes from the information geometry perspective. In particular, we treat the case where each deformed probability simplex corresponds to a set of q-escort distributions. For the foliation, different q-parameters and the corresponding α-parameters of dualistic structures are defined on each of the various leaves. We propose the divergence decomposition theorem that guides the proximity of q-escort distributions with different q-parameters and compare the new theorem to the previous theorem of the standard divergence on a Hessian manifold with a fixed α-parameter.

In previous work, we described the geometry of Bayesian learning on a manifold. In this paper, inspired by the notion of modified double contingency of communications from sociologist Niklas Luhmann, we take two manifolds in equal parts and a potential function on their product to set up mutual Bayesian learning. Particularly, given a parametric statistical model, we consider mutual learning between two copies of the parameter space. Here, we associate the potential with the relative entropy (i.e., the Kullback–Leibler divergence). Although the mutual learning forgets all elements about the model except the relative entropy, it still substitutes for the usual Bayesian estimation of the parameter in a certain case. We propose it as a globalization of the information geometry.

The Gibbs distribution of statistical physics is an exponential family of probability distributions, which has a mathematical basis of duality in the form of the Legendre transformation. Recent studies of complex systems have found lots of distributions obeying the power law rather than the standard Gibbs type distributions. The Tsallis q-entropy is a typical example capturing such phenomena. We treat the q-Gibbs distribution or the q-exponential family by generalizing the exponential function to the q-family of power functions, which is useful for studying various complex or non-standard physical phenomena. We give a new mathematical structure to the q-exponential family different from those previously given. It has a dually flat geometrical structure derived from the Legendre transformation and the conformal geometry is useful for understanding it. The q-version of the maximum entropy theorem is naturally induced from the q-Pythagorean theorem. We also show that the maximizer of the q-escort distribution is a Bayesian MAP (Maximum A posteriori Probability) estimator.

This essay addresses Cartesian duality and how its implicit dialectic might be repaired using physics and information theory. Our agenda is to describe a key distinction in the physical sciences that may provide a foundation for the distinction between mind and matter, and between sentient and intentional systems. From this perspective, it becomes tenable to talk about the physics of sentience and ‘forces’ that underwrite our beliefs (in the sense of probability distributions represented by our internal states), which may ground our mental states and consciousness. We will refer to this view as Markovian monism, which entails two claims: (1) fundamentally, there is only one type of thing and only one type of irreducible property (hence monism). (2) All systems possessing a Markov blanket have properties that are relevant for understanding the mind and consciousness: if such systems have mental properties, then they have them partly by virtue of possessing a Markov blanket (hence Markovian). Markovian monism rests upon the information geometry of random dynamic systems. In brief, the information geometry induced in any system—whose internal states can be distinguished from external states—must acquire a dual aspect. This dual aspect concerns the (intrinsic) information geometry of the probabilistic evolution of internal states and a separate (extrinsic) information geometry of probabilistic beliefs about external states that are parameterised by internal states. We call these intrinsic (i.e., mechanical, or state-based) and extrinsic (i.e., Markovian, or belief-based) information geometries, respectively. Although these mathematical notions may sound complicated, they are fairly straightforward to handle, and may offer a means through which to frame the origins of consciousness.

Assessment of causal influences is a ubiquitous and important subject across diverse research fields. Drawn from consciousness studies, integrated information is a measure that defines integration as the degree of causal influences among elements. Whereas pairwise causal influences between elements can be quantified with existing methods, quantifying multiple influences among many elements poses two major mathematical difficulties. First, overestimation occurs due to interdependence among influences if each influence is separately quantified in a part-based manner and then simply summed over. Second, it is difficult to isolate causal influences while avoiding noncausal confounding influences. To resolve these difficulties, we propose a theoretical framework based on information geometry for the quantification of multiple causal influences with a holistic approach. We derive a measure of integrated information, which is geometrically interpreted as the divergence between the actual probability distribution of a system and an approximated probability distribution where causal influences among elements are statistically disconnected. This framework provides intuitive geometric interpretations harmonizing various information theoretic measures in a unified manner, including mutual information, transfer entropy, stochastic interaction, and integrated information, each of which is characterized by how causal influences are disconnected. In addition to the mathematical assessment of consciousness, our framework should help to analyze causal relationships in complex systems in a complete and hierarchical manner.

Based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle for a generalized entropy functional and the conjugate representations introduced by Zhang, we have reformulated the method of information geometry. For a set of conjugate representations, the associated escort expectation is naturally introduced and characterized by the generalized score function which has zero-escort expectation. Furthermore, we show that the escort expectation induces a conformal divergence.

This paper considers the relationship between thermodynamics, information and inference. In particular, it explores the thermodynamic concomitants of belief updating, under a variational (free energy) principle for self-organization. In brief, any (weakly mixing) random dynamical system that possesses a Markov blanket—i.e. a separation of internal and external states—is equipped with an information geometry. This means that internal states parametrize a probability density over external states. Furthermore, at non-equilibrium steady-state, the flow of internal states can be construed as a gradient flow on a quantity known in statistics as Bayesian model evidence. In short, there is a natural Bayesian mechanics for any system that possesses a Markov blanket. Crucially, this means that there is an explicit link between the inference performed by internal states and their energetics—as characterized by their stochastic thermodynamics. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Harmonizing energy-autonomous computing and intelligence’.

In this paper, we introduce a new concept for constructing prior distributions. We exploit the natural nested structure inherent to many model components, which defines the model component to be a flexible extension of a base model. Proper priors are defined to penalise the complexity induced by deviating from the simpler base model and are formulated after the input of a user-defined scaling parameter for that model component, both in the univariate and the multivariate case. These priors are invariant to reparameterisations, have a natural connection to Jeffreys' priors, are designed to support Occam's razor and seem to have excellent robustness properties, all which are highly desirable and allow us to use this approach to define default prior distributions. Through examples and theoretical results, we demonstrate the appropriateness of this approach and how it can be applied in various situations.