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Qu, Dassios, and Zhao (2021) suggested an exact simulation method for tempered stable Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes, but their algorithms contain some errors. This short note aims to correct their algorithms and conduct some numerical experiments.

Degradation data are an important source of product reliability information. Two popular stochastic models for degradation data are the Gamma process and the inverse Gaussian (IG) process, both of which possess monotone degradation paths. Although these two models have been used in numerous applications, the existing interval estimation methods are either inaccurate given a moderate sample size of the degradation data or require a significant computation time when the size of the degradation data is large. To bridge this gap, this article develops a general framework of interval estimation for the Gamma and IG processes based on the method of generalized pivotal quantities. Extensive simulations are conducted to compare the proposed methods with existing methods under moderate and large sample sizes. Degradation data from capacitors are used to illustrate the proposed methods.

Degradation studies are often used to assess reliability of products subject to degradation-induced soft failures. Because of limited test resources, several test subjects may have to share a test rig and have their degradation measured by the same operator. The common environments experienced by subjects in the same group introduce significant interindividual correlations in their degradation, which is known as the block effect. In the present article, the Wiener process is used to model product degradation, and the group-specific random environments are captured using a stochastic time scale. Both semiparametric and parametric estimation procedures are developed for the model. Maximum likelihood estimations of the model parameters for both the semiparametric and parametric models are obtained with the help of the EM algorithm. Performance of the maximum likelihood estimators is validated through large sample asymptotics and small sample simulations. The proposed models are illustrated by an application to lumen maintenance data of blue light-emitting diodes. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Stochastic processes are widely used to analyze degradation data, and the Gaussian process is a particularly common one. In this article, we propose a robust statistical model using a Student-t process to assess the lifetime information of highly reliable products. This model is statistically plausible and demonstrates a substantially improved fit when applied to real data. A computationally accurate approach is proposed to calculate the first-passage-time density function of the Student-t degradation-based process; related properties are investigated as well. In addition, this article provides parameter estimation using the EM-type algorithm and a simple model-checking procedure to evaluate the appropriateness of the model assumptions. Several case studies are performed to demonstrate the flexibility and applicability of the proposed model with random effects and explanatory variables. Technical details, datasets, and R codes are available as supplementary materials .

The Inverse Gaussian process is a useful stochastic process to model the monotonous degradation process of a certain component. Owing to the phenomenon that the degradation processes often exhibit multi-stage characteristics because of the internal degradation mechanisms and external environmental factors, a change-point Inverse Gaussian process is studied in this paper. A modified information criterion method is applied to illustrate the existence and estimate of the change point. A reliability function is derived based on the proposed method. The simulations are conducted to show the performance of the proposed method. As a result, the procedure outperforms the existing procedure with regard to test power and consistency. Finally, the procedure is applied to hydraulic piston pump data to demonstrate its practical application.

The Dirichlet process mixture model and more general mixtures based on discrete random probability measures have been shown to be flexible and accurate models for density estimation and clustering. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the use of normalized random measures as mixing measures in nonparametric hierarchical mixture models and point out how possible computational issues can be successfully addressed. To this end, we first provide a concise and accessible introduction to normalized random measures with independent increments. Then, we explain in detail a particular way of sampling from the posterior using the Ferguson-Klass representation. We develop a thorough comparative analysis for location-scale mixtures that considers a set of alternatives for the mixture kernel and for the nonparametric component. Simulation results indicate that normalized random measure mixtures potentially represent a valid default choice for density estimation problems. As a byproduct of this study an R package to fit these models was produced and is available in the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

In manufacturing, cutting tools gradually wear out during the cutting process and decrease in cutting precision. A cutting tool has to be replaced if its degradation exceeds a certain threshold, which is determined by the required cutting precision. To effectively schedule production and maintenance actions, it is vital to model the wear process of cutting tools and predict their remaining useful life (RUL). However, it is difficult to determine the RUL of cutting tools with cutting precision as a failure criterion, as cutting precision is not directly measurable. This paper proposed a RUL prediction method for a cutting tool, developed based on a degradation model, with the roughness of the cutting surface as a failure criterion. The surface roughness was linked to the wearing process of a cutting tool through a random threshold, and accounts for the impact of the dynamic working environment and variable materials of working pieces. The wear process is modeled using a random-effects inverse Gaussian (IG) process. The degradation rate is assumed to be unit-specific, considering the dynamic wear mechanism and a heterogeneous population. To adaptively update the model parameters for online RUL prediction, an expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm has been developed. The proposed method is illustrated using an example study. The experiments were performed on specimens of 7109 aluminum alloy by milling in the normalized state. The results reveal that the proposed method effectively evaluates the RUL of cutting tools according to the specified surface roughness, therefore improving cutting quality and efficiency.

Degradation data plays a crucial role in the reliability assessment and condition monitoring of engineering systems. The stage-wise changes in degradation rates often signal turning points in system performance or potential fault risks. To address the issue of structural changes during the degradation process, this paper constructs a degradation modeling framework based on a two-stage Inverse Gaussian (IG) process and proposes a change-point detection method based on an adjusted CUSUM (cumulative sum) statistic to identify potential stage changes in the degradation path. This method does not rely on complex prior information and constructs statistics by accumulating deviations, utilizing a binary search approach to achieve accurate change-point localization. In simulation experiments, the proposed method demonstrated superior detection performance compared to the classical likelihood ratio method and modified information criterion, verified through a combination of experiments with different change-point positions and degradation rates. Finally, the method was applied to real degradation data of a hydraulic piston pump, successfully identifying two structural change points during the degradation process. Based on these change points, the degradation stages were delineated, thereby enhancing the model’s ability to characterize the true degradation path of the equipment.

Abstract As the core component responsible for high-frequency power switching in photovoltaic inverters, accurately predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) has become a key factor in ensuring the stable operation of photovoltaic systems. However, existing methods struggle to precisely characterize the degradation characteristics and processes of IGBTs at different time points. To address these issues, this paper proposes a MIG-PI-Pathformer (Multi-stage Inverse Gaussian Physical Information Pathformer Network) RUL prediction method that integrates physical degradation models with deep learning. This method establishes a multi-stage Inverse Gaussian degradation model based on the physical failure mechanisms of IGBTs and couples it with the dual attention mechanism of the Pathformer model to capture complex degradation features, adaptively divide time scales, and thereby correct prediction errors in the physical model. Additionally, physical rule constraints are incorporated into the Pathformer loss function to ensure that RUL predictions align with degradation mechanisms. Simulation results show that, on NASA’s IGBT aging dataset, compared to the single Pathformer, the proposed method reduces mean square error and mean absolute error by 70.21$\\%$ and 17.84$\\%$, respectively, and improves $R^2$ by 7.66$\\%$. This method provides more accurate and physically interpretable technical support for fault warning and optimized maintenance of photovoltaic inverters. Graphical Abstract Graphical Abstract Framework of physics–data hybrid-driven prediction for IGBT remaining useful life.

We consider two fractional versions of a family of nonnegative integer-valued processes. We prove that their probability mass functions solve fractional Kolmogorov forward equations, and we show the overdispersion of these processes. As particular examples in this family, we can define fractional versions of some processes in the literature as the Pólya-Aeppli process, the Poisson inverse Gaussian process, and the negative binomial process. We also define and study some more general fractional versions with two fractional parameters.