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We aimed to analyze the temporal trends in the per capita food (kcal/day/person) and protein (g/day/person) availability at the national level in the Southeast Asian (SEA) countries from 1961 to 2018. To avoid intercountry variations and errors, we used a dataset derived from the FAO’s old and new food balance sheets. We used the joinpoint model and the jump model to analyze the temporal trends. The annual percentage change (APC) was computed for each segment of the trends. Per capita food and protein availability in the SEA countries increased significantly by 0.8% per year (54.0%) and 1.1% per year (85.1%), respectively, from 1961 to 2018. During the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s the per capita food availability in mainland SEA did not change significantly and was less than 2200 kcal/person/day. Since the early 1990s, food availability increased appreciably in the mainland SEA countries, except for Cambodia, which has experienced the increasing trend from the late 1990s. Distinct from the mainland, maritime SEA countries showed an up–down–up growth trend in their per-capita food availability from 1961 to 2018. Food-availability growth slowed down for Brunei (since the mid-1980s) and Malaysia (since mid-the 1990s) whereas it increased for Indonesia (1.5% per year), Timor-Leste (0.9% per year), and the Philippines (0.8% per year). Per capita protein availability trends in the mainland SEA countries were similar to the countries’ per capita food availability trends. Since the late 1980s, Thailand and since the late 1990s, other mainland SEA countries experienced a significant growth in their per capita protein availability. Since the late 1990s, per capita protein availability in Vietnam increased markedly and reached the highest available amount in the SEA region, following Brunei and Myanmar. Per capita protein availability increased almost continuously among the maritime SEA countries, except for Timor-Leste. Marked inequality did exist between maritime and mainland SEA countries in per capita food-availability growth till the mid-1990s. Considerable increases in per capita food availability have occurred in most of the SEA countries, but growth is inadequate for Timor-Leste and Cambodia.

Background Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer that occurs to women worldwide. This study aims to assess trends in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in India and its states over past three decades for tracking the progress of strategies for the prevention and control of cervical cancer. Methods Data on cervical cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 for India and its states were extracted from Global Burden of Disease study and were utilized for the analysis. Spatial and rank map has been used to see the changes in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in different Indian states. Further, joinpoint regression analysis is applied to determine the magnitude of the time trends in the age standardized incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer. We obtained the average annual percent change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each state. Results Overall, from 1990 to 2019 Jharkhand (Incidence: -50.22%; Mortality: -56.16%) recorded the highest percentage decrement in cervical cancer incidence and mortality followed by the Himachal Pradesh (Incidence: -48.34%; Mortality: -53.37%). Tamilnadu (1 st rank), Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh (32 nd rank) maintained the same rank over the period of three decade for age standardized cervical cancer incidence and mortality. The regression model showed a significant declining trend in India between 1990 and 2019 for age standardized incidence rate (AAPC: −0.82; 95%CI: −1.39 to −0.25; p < 0.05) with highest decline in the period 1998-2005 (AAPC: −3.22; 95%CI: −3.83 to −2.59; p < 0.05). Similarly, a significant declining trend was observed in the age standardized mortality rate of India between 1990 and 2019(AAPC: −1.35; 95%CI: −1.96 to −0.75; p < 0.05) with highest decline in the period 1998-2005 (AAPC: −3.52; 95%CI: −4.17 to −2.86; p < 0.05). Conclusion Though the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer declined over past three decades but it is still a major public health problem in India. Information, education and communication activities for girls, boys, parents and community for the prevention and control of cervical cancer should be provided throughout the country.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is the most prevalent chronic liver disease globally, driven by rising obesity, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study evaluates the global, regional, and national burden of MAFLD-related diseases from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends. Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, including estimates for the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with MAFLD, MAFLD-related cirrhosis, and MASH-related liver cancer. Countries were classified into 21 regions and five socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles to analyze health disparities. Decomposition analyses assessed the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts. Future trends were modeled using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) framework. In 2021, approximately 1.27 billion MAFLD cases were reported globally, with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 15,018 per 100,000. The highest incidence occurred in South and East Asia. Mortality reached 138,328 cases for MAFLD and 97,403 for MAFLD-related cirrhosis. Decomposition analyses highlighted population growth and aging as key drivers. BAPC projections indicate a continued rise in MAFLD burden, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study underscores the increasing global burden of MAFLD and its complications. Targeted public health interventions focusing on prevention and early management are urgently needed to mitigate future impacts.

Eating disorders (ED) have increasingly become a global topic of concern for public health. A better understanding of ED incidence is a basic requirement for improving its management. However, the temporal trend of ED incidence in China is still unknown. The incidence rates of ED from 1990 to 2017 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 database according to the following: subtype, i.e. anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN); sex; and age group. The average annual percent changes and relative risks were calculated using joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model, respectively. From 1990 to 2017, age-standardized incidence rates of ED continued to increase in males and females, and this variation trend was observed in AN and BN. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rates increased in all age groups. Adolescents had the highest risk of developing ED, followed by young adults. Age effects were the most influential risk factor for ED incidence. Period effects showed that the risk of developing ED continuously increased with increasing time periods in BN, but not in ED and AN. Concerning the cohort effects, people born after the 1990s presented a higher risk of ED, though they presented a lower risk of BN as compared to the whole cohort. ED incidence rates continue to increase in China, particularly among adolescents and young adults. Further etiological studies are needed to explain these increases and to facilitate the early identification of high-risk individuals.

Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa’s leading causes of death among women. The leading causes of maternal mortality in Africa are hemorrhage and eclampsia. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality (MM) in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) databank from 2000 to 2017, 2017 being the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of −3.0% (95% CI −2.9; −3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the greatest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations’ sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South African region. The only region close to the United Nations’ target is the North African region. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. The West African region needs more extraordinary efforts to achieve the goals of the United Nations. Policies should ensure that all pregnant women have antenatal visits and give birth in a health facility staffed by specialized personnel.

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the major infectious diseases with the largest number of morbidity and mortality. Based on the comparison of high and low burden countries of tuberculosis in China, India and the United States, the influence of age-period-cohort on the incidence of tuberculosis in three countries from 1992 to 2017 was studied based on the Global burden of Disease Study 2017. We studied the trends using Joinpoint regression in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR). The regression model showed a significant decreasing behavior in China, India and the United States between 1992 and 2017. Here, we analyzed the tuberculosis incidence trends in China, India, as well as the United States and distinguished age, period and cohort effects by using age-period-cohort (APC) model. We found that the relative risks (RRs) of tuberculosis in China and India have similar trends, but the United States was found different. The period effect showed that the incidence of the three countries as a whole declines with time. The incidence of tuberculosis had increased in most age group. The older the age, the higher the risk of TB incidence. The net age effect in China and India showed a negative trend, while the cohort effect decreased from the earlier birth cohort to the recent birth cohort. Aging may lead to a continuous increase in the incidence of tuberculosis. It is related to the aging of the population and the relative decline of the immune function in the elderly. This should be timely population intervention or vaccine measures, especially for the elderly. The net cohort effect in the United States showed an unfavorable trend, mainly due to rising smoking rates and the emergence of an economic crisis. Reducing tobacco consumption can effectively reduce the incidence.

Background Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. Methods This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model. Results During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 1.63; 95% CI: − 1.71 to − 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: − 4.35; 95% CI: − 5.12 to − 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 3.88; 95% CI: − 4.63 to − 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. Conclusion Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Background Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017. Methods We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence. Results The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990–2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990–2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963–1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S. Conclusion From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

Crohn's disease (CD) represents a growing public health concern, yet comprehensive epidemiological data on women of reproductive age are limited. This study aimed to explore the incidence trends and underlying drivers of CD among women of reproductive age in China, India, and the United States (US). Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2023, we analyzed age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2023. Temporal trends were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Joinpoint regression analysis. A decomposition analysis was conducted to evaluate the influencing factors, and a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to project trends through 2040. Globally, CD incidence among women of reproductive age showed a slow upward trend. China experienced the most rapid increase (EAPC 2.89; 95% CI: 2.23-3.55), with ASIR rising from 0.29 to 0.70/100,000. Increases were modest in India (EAPC 0.99; 95% CI: 0.79-1.18) and the US (EAPC 0.41; 95% CI: 0.22-0.61). Joinpoint regression identified varying temporal patterns across countries. Peak incidence occurred earlier in China (ages 35-39) compared to the US and India (ages 40-44). Decomposition analysis attributed China's increasing burden primarily to epidemiological changes, whereas demographic factors drove trends in the US and India. By 2040, China's ASIR is projected to reach 0.74/100,000, while the US rate is expected to decline. Notably, age-standardized DALY rates will decrease across all three countries, though the reduction in China was marginal compared to the US. The present study characterizes both distinct regional patterns of CD evolution as well as age-related changes in its course. The association with the peak period of fertility also highlights the need to have localized plans and multidisciplinary models of care.

Fen Lin,1,* Xueying Wei,2,* Lihuan Song,3,* Guanghui Xu,4 Jing Li5 1Department of Gastroenterology, Fujian Provincial Governmental Hospital, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Geriatrics, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China; 3Independent Researcher, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Orthopaedics, Fujian Provincial Governmental Hospital, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China; 5School of Medical Technology and Engineering, Fujian Health College, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Fen Lin, Department of Gastroenterology, Fujian Provincial Governmental Hospital, No. 67, Gupin Street, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350003, People’s Republic of China, Email linfen@fjwzy.edu.cnPurpose: Crohn’s disease (CD) represents a growing public health concern, yet comprehensive epidemiological data on women of reproductive age are limited. This study aimed to explore the incidence trends and underlying drivers of CD among women of reproductive age in China, India, and the United States (US).Patients and Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2023, we analyzed age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2023. Temporal trends were assessed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Joinpoint regression analysis. A decomposition analysis was conducted to evaluate the influencing factors, and a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to project trends through 2040.Results: Globally, CD incidence among women of reproductive age showed a slow upward trend. China experienced the most rapid increase (EAPC 2.89; 95% CI: 2.23– 3.55), with ASIR rising from 0.29 to 0.70/100,000. Increases were modest in India (EAPC 0.99; 95% CI: 0.79– 1.18) and the US (EAPC 0.41; 95% CI: 0.22– 0.61). Joinpoint regression identified varying temporal patterns across countries. Peak incidence occurred earlier in China (ages 35– 39) compared to the US and India (ages 40– 44). Decomposition analysis attributed China’s increasing burden primarily to epidemiological changes, whereas demographic factors drove trends in the US and India. By 2040, China’s ASIR is projected to reach 0.74/100,000, while the US rate is expected to decline. Notably, age-standardized DALY rates will decrease across all three countries, though the reduction in China was marginal compared to the US.Conclusion: The present study characterizes both distinct regional patterns of CD evolution as well as age-related changes in its course. The association with the peak period of fertility also highlights the need to have localized plans and multidisciplinary models of care.Keywords: Crohn’s disease, women of reproductive age, burden of disease, epidemiology, joinpoint regression analysis