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Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) remains the primary cause of death and disability in the United States. Among various risk factors, the role of Kidney Dysfunction (KD) in exacerbating IHD has not been fully explored, particularly on a state-by-state basis. This study seeks to delineate the consistent burden of IHD attributable to KD throughout the U.S from 1990 to 2019. Method: We estimated the deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) by age, sex, year, and location across the U.S. These were quantified in absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 people. Results: The study found significant increases in the annual percentage change (APC) from 2010-2019: deaths rose by 17% (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 14-20%), DALYs by 18% (15-22%), and YLDs by 21% (16-27%). State-specific increases in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were highest in Vermont at 5%, followed by New Mexico at 3%. Conversely, the District of Columbia saw a significant decrease of 16%. Vermont also showed the largest rise in DALY rates at 7%, and Florida in YLD rates at 3%. The age group of 90-94 years exhibited the highest number of deaths, while the 75-79 age group showed the greatest DALYs in 2019. Men consistently bore a heavier burden than women, with significant differences in APC across deaths, DALYs, and YLDs from 2010-2019. Conclusion: IHD due to KD accounted for 16.67% of all IHD deaths in 2019, with older adults and men experiencing a markedly increased burden. These findings underscore the need for integrated care approaches and strong health policies to effectively manage the interplay between these serious health conditions.

In patients with kidney disease, nephrotic syndrome can lead to several complications including progressive kidney dysfunction. Proteinuria may lead to the formation of cellular or fibrous crescents with reciprocal development of rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis or focal glomerulosclerosis. Proteinuria may also cause overload and dysfunction of tubular epithelial cells, eventually resulting in tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis. Hypoalbuminemia is usually associated with increased risk of mortality and kidney dysfunction. Dyslipidemia may increase the risk of atherosclerotic complications, cause podocyte dysfunction and contribute to vascular thrombosis. Urinary loss of anticoagulants and overproduction of coagulation factors may facilitate a hypercoagulable state. Edema, hypogammaglobulinemia, loss of complement factors, and immunosuppressive therapy can favor infection. Treatment of these complications may reduce their impact on the severity of NS. Nephrotic syndrome is a kidney disorder that can worsen the quality of life and increase the risk of kidney disease progression. Graphical abstract

Background Early prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) after liver transplantation (LT) facilitates timely recognition and intervention. We aimed to build a risk predictor of post-LT AKI via supervised machine learning and visualize the mechanism driving within to assist clinical decision-making. Methods Data of 894 cases that underwent liver transplantation from January 2015 to September 2019 were collected, covering demographics, donor characteristics, etiology, peri-operative laboratory results, co-morbidities and medications. The primary outcome was new-onset AKI after LT according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines. Predicting performance of five classifiers including logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, gradient boosting machine (GBM) and adaptive boosting were respectively evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, F1-score, sensitivity and specificity. Model with the best performance was validated in an independent dataset involving 195 adult LT cases from October 2019 to March 2021. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was applied to evaluate feature importance and explain the predictions made by ML algorithms. Results 430 AKI cases (55.1%) were diagnosed out of 780 included cases. The GBM model achieved the highest AUC (0.76, CI 0.70 to 0.82), F1-score (0.73, CI 0.66 to 0.79) and sensitivity (0.74, CI 0.66 to 0.8) in the internal validation set, and a comparable AUC (0.75, CI 0.67 to 0.81) in the external validation set. High preoperative indirect bilirubin, low intraoperative urine output, long anesthesia time, low preoperative platelets, and graft steatosis graded NASH CRN 1 and above were revealed by SHAP method the top 5 important variables contributing to the diagnosis of post-LT AKI made by GBM model. Conclusions Our GBM-based predictor of post-LT AKI provides a highly interoperable tool across institutions to assist decision-making after LT. Graphic abstract

Objective We aim to explore the prevalence and temporal trends of the burden of kidney dysfunction (KD) in global, regional and national level, since a lack of related studies. Design Cross-sectional study. Materials The data of this research was obtained from Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The estimation of the prevalence, which was measured by the summary exposure value (SEV), and attributable burden of KD was performed by DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. The Spearman rank order correlation method was adopted to perform correlation analysis. The temporal trends were represented by the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Results In 2019, there were total 3.16 million deaths and 76.5 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to KD, increased by 101.1% and 81.7% compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the prevalence of KD has increased in worldwide, but decreased in High-income Asia Pacific. Nearly 48.5% of countries globally, such as South Africa, Egypt and Mexico had increased mortality rates of KD from 1990 to 2019 while 44.6% for disability rate. Countries with lower socio-demographic index (SDI) are facing a higher prevalence as well as mortality and disability rate compared with those with higher SDI. Compared with females, the prevalence of KD was lower in males, however the attributable mortality and disability rate were higher in all years from 1990 to 2019. Conclusion With the progress of senescent, we will face more severe challenges of reducing the prevalence and attributable burden of KD, especially in regions with lower SDI. Effective measures are urgently required to alleviate the prevalence and burden of KD.

Renin–angiotensin system inhibitors are recommended for treating hypertension with chronic kidney disease. The addition of a mineralocorticoid receptor blocker may be one option to achieve target blood pressure. We investigated the efficacy and safety of esaxerenone, a mineralocorticoid receptor blocker, in Japanese hypertensive patients with moderate kidney dysfunction. Two multicenter, open-label, nonrandomized dose escalation studies were conducted to investigate esaxerenone monotherapy and add-on therapy to renin–angiotensin system inhibitor treatment. Esaxerenone therapy was initiated at 1.25 mg/day and titrated to 2.5 and then 5 mg/day for a treatment duration of 12 weeks. Primary endpoints were changes from baseline in sitting systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Safety, pharmacokinetics, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios were also assessed. Thirty-three patients received monotherapy, and 58 received add-on therapy; the mean baseline estimated glomerular filtration rates were 51.9 and 50.9 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively. The esaxerenone dosage was increased to ≥2.5 mg/day in 100% ( n  = 33) and 93.1% ( n  = 54) of patients receiving monotherapy and add-on therapy, respectively. Reductions in sitting blood pressure from baseline to the end of treatment were similar (monotherapy: −18.5/−8.8 mmHg; add-on therapy: −17.8/−8.1 mmHg; both P  < 0.001). The antihypertensive effects of esaxerenone were consistent across patient subgroups. A serum K + level ≥5.5 mEq/L was observed in seven patients (12.1%) receiving add-on therapy but in none receiving monotherapy. All increases in serum K + levels were transient, and no patient met predefined serum K + level criteria for dose reduction or therapy discontinuation. No patient discontinued treatment owing to kidney function decline. Esaxerenone was effective and well tolerated in hypertensive patients with moderate kidney dysfunction.

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is seen in one-fifth of pediatric patients with COVID-19 requiring hospital admission, and is associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and residual kidney impairment. The majority of kidney pathology data in patients with COVID-19 is derived from adult case series and there is an overall lack of histologic data for most pediatric patients with COVID-19. Methods We assembled a multi-institutional cohort of five unvaccinated pediatric patients with COVID-19 and associated kidney dysfunction with available histology. Results Three complex patients with current or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection had multifactorial thrombotic microangiopathy with clinical features of hemolytic uremic syndrome (in two) or disseminated intravascular coagulation (in one); one died and another developed chronic kidney disease stage 5. Two with recently preceding SARS-CoV-2 infection presented with nephrotic syndrome; one had IgA vasculitis and one had minimal change disease. Within a short follow-up time, none has returned to baseline kidney function. Conclusion Although uncommon, COVID-19-associated kidney injury can have significant morbidity in the unvaccinated pediatric and adolescent population. Graphical abstract A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information .

Background In this study, we aimed to clarify the beneficial effects of urate-lowering treatment with the novel agent dotinurad on renal function in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and hyperuricemia (HUA). Methods Thirty-five patients with CKD (mean age 65.4 ± 14.8 years, 23 men) diagnosed with HUA were recruited. Changes in eGFR before and after dotinurad administration were assessed. Patients first underwent a 3-month observation period and then 3 months treatment with dotinurad. Results During the observation period, mean eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) declined significantly. The baseline eGFR was 31.8 ± 16.4 and the serum urate level (sUA, mg/dL) was 8.1 ± 1.7. During the treatment period, eGFR recovered to 36.5 ± 17.5 and sUA decreased to 6.7 ± 1.0. The increase in eGFR after dotinurad administration was correlated with a decrease in sUA ( R  = 0.375, p  = 0.0263). Conclusion Dotinurad administration to patients with CKD and HUA appears to be beneficial in restoring kidney function. Dotinurad may represent a potential medication for the prevention of kidney function decline caused by HUA.

Acute-phase serum amyloid A (SAA) can disrupt vascular homeostasis and is elevated in subjects with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and rheumatoid arthritis. Cyclic nitroxides (e.g., Tempo) are a class of piperidines that inhibit oxidative stress and inflammation. This study examined whether 4-methoxy-Tempo (4-MetT) inhibits SAA-mediated vascular and renal dysfunction. Acetylcholine-mediated vascular relaxation and aortic guanosine-3′,5′-cyclic monophosphate (cGMP) levels both diminished in the presence of SAA. 4-MetT dose-dependently restored vascular function with corresponding increases in cGMP. Next, male ApoE-deficient mice were administered a vehicle (control, 100 µL PBS) or recombinant SAA (100 µL, 120 µg/mL) ± 4-MetT (at 15 mg/kg body weight via i.p. injection) with the nitroxide administered before (prophylaxis) or after (therapeutic) SAA. Kidney and hearts were harvested at 4 or 16 weeks post SAA administration. Renal inflammation increased 4 weeks after SAA treatment, as judged by the upregulation of IFN-γ and concomitant increases in iNOS, p38MAPK, and matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activities and increased renal fibrosis (Picrosirius red staining) in the same kidneys. Aortic root lesions assessed at 16 weeks revealed that SAA enhanced lesion size (vs. control; p < 0.05), with plaque presenting with a diffuse fibrous cap (compared to the corresponding aortic root from control and 4-MetT groups). The extent of renal dysfunction and aortic lesion size was largely unchanged in 4-MetT-supplemented mice, although renal fibrosis diminished at 16 weeks, and aortic lesions presented with redistributed collagen networks. These outcomes indicate that SAA stimulates renal dysfunction through promoting the IFN-γ–iNOS–p38MAPK axis, manifesting as renal damage and enhanced atherosclerotic lesions, while supplementation with 4-MetT only affected some of these pathological changes.

Background Gout, an inflammatory arthritis, disproportionately affects the elderly due to hyperuricemia, leading to significant health-related quality of life impairments and escalating healthcare costs. However, a comprehensive global analysis focusing on the elderly population is needed to inform effective interventions. Methods Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, this study assessed the prevalence, incidence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) of gout among individuals aged ≥ 55 years in 204 countries from 1990 to 2021. We also evaluated the impact of high body mass index (BMI) and kidney dysfunction as key risk factors. Results The study identified 37,230,366 cases of gout globally among the elderly, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 2505.4 per 100,000 population. There was a notable increase in prevalence with an Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) of 1.08. Similarly, the age-standardized incidence and YLD rates increased, with EAPCs of 0.83 and 1.06, respectively. High-income regions, particularly Australasia and High-income North America, exhibited the highest rates, while Central Latin America and the Caribbean reported the lowest. Males had a higher burden of gout than females. High BMI and kidney dysfunction were significant contributors to YLDs, with their impact more pronounced in regions with higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Conclusion The study found a growing gout burden among the elderly, with substantial regional and gender disparities. It underscores the urgent need for targeted public health interventions, particularly in high SDI regions, to address modifiable risk factors like high BMI and kidney dysfunction and to curb the rising trend of gout prevalence and disability.