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This paper studies predatory trading, trading that induces and/or exploits the need of other investors to reduce their positions. We show that if one trader needs to sell, others also sell and subsequently buy back the asset. This leads to price overshooting and a reduced liquidation value for the distressed trader. Hence, the market is illiquid when liquidity is most needed. Further, a trader profits from triggering another trader's crisis, and the crisis can spill over across traders and across markets.

How do liquidation values affect financial contract renegotiation? While the “incomplete-contracting” theory of financial contracting predicts that liquidation values determine the allocation of bargaining power between creditors and debtors, there is little empirical evidence on financial contract renegotiations and the role asset values play in such bargaining. This paper attempts to fill this gap. We develop an incomplete-contracting model of financial contract renegotiation and estimate it using data on the airline industry in the United States. We find that airlines successfully renegotiate their lease obligations downward when their financial position is sufficiently poor and when the liquidation value of their fieet is low. Our results show that strategic renegotiation is common in the airline industry. Moreover, the results emphasize the importance of the incomplete contracting perspective to real-world financial contract renegotiation.

We develop a theory of the interaction between the entry of lenders and the real sector. The high liquidation skills of incumbent lenders render them too tough in terminating high-risk/return projects. Being \"foreign\" to the market, newcomers have lower ability to liquidate than incumbents. This makes them softer in liquidating high-risk/return projects but renders their funding more costly. We show that the entry of lenders and the share of high-risk/return projects can reinforce each other through firms' liquidation values. This interaction dampens the output impact of liquidity shocks. Hence, financial liberalization can enhance stability.

We develop a simple model of the price impact of institutional herding. The empirical literature indicates that institutional herding positively predicts short-term returns but negatively predicts long-term returns. We offer a theoretical resolution to this dichotomy. In our model, career-concerned money managers trade with security dealers endowed with market power and exhibit an endogenous tendency to imitate past trades. This tendency is exploited by dealers and thus affects prices. In equilibrium, institutional herding positively predicts short-term returns but negatively predicts long-term returns. Our article also generates several new, testable predictions that link institutional herding with the time-series properties of returns and volume.

I investigate the effect of assets' liquidation values on capital structure by exploiting the diversity of track gauges in nineteenth-century American railroads. The abundance of track gauges limited the redeployability of rolling stock and tracks to potential users with similar track gauge. Moreover, potential demand for both rolling stock and tracks was further diminished when many railroads went under equity receiverships. I find that the potential demand for a railroad's rolling stock and tracks were significant determinants of debt maturity and the amount of debt that was issued by railroads. The results are consistent with liquidation values models of financial contracting and capital structure

We develop a credit-risk model to study the informational role of investment in an economy susceptible to large liquidity shocks. Firms' investment decisions carry information about their asset quality, thereby mitigating informational frictions when firms enter bankruptcy. An increase in aggregate investment can reduce the informational value of investment, depressing firms' recovery values. Therefore, policies boosting investment can decrease debt and firm values by reducing the informational value of investment. The presence of debt overhang may enhance firm value by making firms' investment decisions more informative. We present suggestive empirical evidence consistent with model predictions on the relation between firms' investments and recovery rates.

We develop a credit-risk model to study the informational role of investment in an economy susceptible to large liquidity shocks. Firms’ investment decisions carry information about their asset quality, thereby mitigating informational frictions when firms enter bankruptcy. An increase in aggregate investment can reduce the informational value of investment, depressing firms’ recovery values. Therefore, policies boosting investment can decrease debt and firm values by reducing the informational value of investment. The presence of debt overhang may enhance firm value by making firms’ investment decisions more informative. We present suggestive empirical evidence consistent with model predictions on the relation between firms’ investments and recovery rates.

The aim of this paper is to explore how debt contracts are affected by investment in asset specialization and by the dynamics of the secondary market for collateralized productive assets. Before applying for a loan, financially constrained firms face a specificity trade-off: asset specialization increases firms’ project returns, but decreases the liquidation value of assets in the secondary market if the firm is in financial distress. To study this trade-off, the paper uses a theoretical model in which the choice of asset specificity and the outcome of the secondary market for distressed firms’ assets are endogenous. High redeployability costs and a small number of participants in the secondary market are associated to low recovery values and to a high cost of debt. The paper shows the conditions under which financial constraints reduce firms’ incentive to invest in asset specificity.

We investigate the dynamics of prices, information, and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model with long-term investors. We argue that the fact that prices can score worse or better than consensus opinion in predicting the fundamentals is a product of endogenous short-term speculation. For a given positive level of residual pay-off uncertainty, if liquidity trades display low persistence, rational investors act like market makers and accommodate the order flow and prices are farther away from fundamentals compared to consensus. This defines a \"Keynesian\" region; the complementary region is \"Hayekian\" in that rational investors chase the trend and prices are systematically closer to fundamentals than average expectations. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and liquidity trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions and identifies the set of deep parameters for which rational investors abide by Keynes' dictum of concentrating on an asset \"long-term prospects and those only\". The analysis also explains momentum and reversal in stock returns and how accommodation and trend-chasing strategies differ from these phenomena.

This paper studies the limitations of monetary policy in stimulating credit and investment. We show that, under certain circumstances, unconventional monetary policies fail in that liquidity injections into the banking sector are hoarded and not lent out. We use the term “credit traps” to describe such situations and show how they can arise due to the interplay between financing frictions, liquidity, and collateral values. We show that small contractions in monetary policy can lead to a collapse in lending. Our analysis demonstrates how quantitative easing may be useful in increasing collateral prices, bank lending, and aggregate investment. (JEL E44, E52, E58, G01)