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Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.

• While trees can acclimate to warming, there is concern that tropical rainforest species may be less able to acclimate because they have adapted to a relatively stable thermal environment. Here we tested whether the physiological adjustments to warming differed among Australian tropical, subtropical and warm-temperate rainforest trees. • Photosynthesis and respiration temperature responses were quantified in six Australian rainforest seedlings of tropical, subtropical and warm-temperate climates grown across four growth temperatures in a glasshouse. Temperature-response models were fitted to identify mechanisms underpinning the response to warming. • Tropical and subtropical species had higher temperature optima for photosynthesis (T optA) than temperate species. There was acclimation of T optA to warmer growth temperatures. The rate of acclimation (0.35–0.78°C °C−1) was higher in tropical and subtropical than in warm-temperate trees and attributed to differences in underlying biochemical parameters, particularly increased temperature optima of V cmax25 and J max25. The temperature sensitivity of respiration (Q 10) was 24% lower in tropical and subtropical compared with warm-temperate species. • Overall, tropical and subtropical species had a similar capacity to acclimate to changes in growth temperature as warm-temperate species, despite being grown at higher temperatures. Quantifying the physiological acclimation in rainforests can improve accuracy of future climate predictions and assess their potential vulnerability to warming.

Is maximum likelihood suitable for factor models in large cross-sections of time series? We answer this question from both an asymptotic and an empirical perspective. We show that estimates of the common factors based on maximum likelihood are consistent for the size of the cross-section (n) and the sample size (T), going to infinity along any path, and that maximum likelihood is viable for n large. The estimator is robust to misspecification of cross-sectional and time series correlation of the idiosyncratic components. In practice, the estimator can be easily implemented using the Kalman smoother and the EM algorithm as in traditional factor analysis.

Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are highly sensitive to model representation of photosynthesis, in particular the parameters maximum carboxylation rate and maximum electron transport rate at 25°C (V c,max.25 and J max.25, respectively). Many TBMs do not include representation of Arctic plants, and those that do rely on understanding and parameterization from temperate species. We measured photosynthetic CO2 response curves and leaf nitrogen (N) content in species representing the dominant vascular plant functional types found on the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The activation energies associated with the temperature response functions of V c,max and J max were 17% lower than commonly used values. When scaled to 25°C, V c,max.25 and J max.25 were two- to five-fold higher than the values used to parameterize current TBMs. This high photosynthetic capacity was attributable to a high leaf N content and the high fraction of N invested in Rubisco. Leaf-level modeling demonstrated that current parameterization of TBMs resulted in a two-fold underestimation of the capacity for leaf-level CO2 assimilation in Arctic vegetation. This study highlights the poor representation of Arctic photosynthesis in TBMs, and provides the critical data necessary to improve our ability to project the response of the Arctic to global environmental change.

Large phylogenomics data sets require fast tree inference methods, especially for maximum-likelihood (ML) phylogenies. Fast programs exist, but due to inherent heuristics to find optimal trees, it is not clear whether the best tree is found. Thus, there is need for additional approaches that employ different search strategies to find ML trees and that are at the same time as fast as currently available ML programs. We show that a combination of hill-climbing approaches and a stochastic perturbation method can be time-efficiently implemented. If we allow the same CPU time as RAxML and PhyML, then our software IQ-TREE found higher likelihoods between 62.2% and 87.1% of the studied alignments, thus efficiently exploring the tree-space. If we use the IQ-TREE stopping rule, RAxML and PhyML are faster in 75.7% and 47.1% of the DNA alignments and 42.2% and 100% of the protein alignments, respectively. However, the range of obtaining higher likelihoods with IQ-TREE improves to 73.3–97.1%. IQ-TREE is freely available at http://www.cibiv.at/software/iqtree.

The utilization of the third current harmonic in five‐phase motors offers the potential to enhance their performance. This paper presents a comprehensive theory for optimally controlling five‐phase permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) across all speeds, considering both motor and inverter limitations. A three‐region speed profile is defined based on motor and inverter constraints, with precise relationships derived for determining region boundaries. Distinct control strategies are proposed for each region: maximum torque per ampere (MTPA) for copper loss minimization and maximum voltage–maximum current (Max V–Max I) and maximum power per voltage (MPPV) for core loss minimization. Optimal components of the first and third current harmonics are calculated for each strategy, serving as reference values for control methods such as FOC, DTC, or MPC in motor drives. Analysis results indicate that the proposed strategies significantly increase electromagnetic torque and output power and decrease power loss of five‐phase PMSM motors.

The EM algorithm is a widely used tool in maximum-likelihood estimation in incomplete data problems. Existing theoretical work has focused on conditions under which the iterates or likelihood values converge, and the associated rates of convergence. Such guarantees do not distinguish whether the ultimate fixed point is a near global optimum or a bad local optimum of the sample likelihood, nor do they relate the obtained fixed point to the global optima of the idealized population likelihood (obtained in the limit of infinite data). This paper develops a theoretical framework for quantifying when and how quickly EM-type iterates converge to a small neighborhood of a given global optimum of the population likelihood. For correctly specified models, such a characterization yields rigorous guarantees on the performance of certain two-stage estimators in which a suitable initial pilot estimator is refined with iterations of the EM algorithm. Our analysis is divided into two parts: a treatment of the EM and first-order EM algorithms at the population level, followed by results that apply to these algorithms on a finite set of samples. Our conditions allow for a characterization of the region of convergence of EM-type iterates to a given population fixed point, that is, the region of the parameter space over which convergence is guaranteed to a point within a small neighborhood of the specified population fixed point. We verify our conditions and give tight characterizations of the region of convergence for three canonical problems of interest: symmetric mixture of two Gaussians, symmetric mixture of two regressions and linear regression with covariates missing completely at random.

This study presents an adaptive perturb and observe (P&O)-fuzzy control maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for photovoltaic (PV) boost dc–dc converter. P&O is known as a very simple MPPT algorithm and used widely. Fuzzy logic is also simple to be developed and provides fast response. The proposed technique combines both of their advantages. It should improve MPPT performance especially with existing of noise. For evaluation and comparison analysis, conventional P&O and fuzzy logic control algorithms have been developed too. All the algorithms were simulated in MATLAB-Simulink, respectively, together with PV module of Kyocera KD210GH-2PU connected to PV boost dc–dc converter. For hardware implementation, the proposed adaptive P&O-fuzzy control MPPT was programmed in TMS320F28335 digital signal processing board. The other two conventional MPPT methods were also programmed for comparison purpose. Performance assessment covers overshoot, time response, maximum power ratio, oscillation and stability as described further in this study. From the results and analysis, the adaptive P&O-fuzzy control MPPT shows the best performance with fast time response, less overshoot and more stable operation. It has high maximum power ratio as compared to the other two conventional MPPT algorithms especially with existing of noise in the system at low irradiance.

Students in statistics or data science usually learn early on that when the sample size n is large relative to the number of variables p, fitting a logistic model by the method of maximum likelihood produces estimates that are consistent and that there are well-known formulas that quantify the variability of these estimates which are used for the purpose of statistical inference. We are often told that these calculations are approximately valid if we have 5 to 10 observations per unknown parameter. This paper shows that this is far from the case, and consequently, inferences produced by common software packages are often unreliable. Consider a logistic model with independent features in which n and p become increasingly large in a fixed ratio. We prove that (i) the maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) is biased, (ii) the variability of the MLE is far greater than classically estimated, and (iii) the likelihood-ratio test (LRT) is not distributed as a X². The bias of the MLE yields wrong predictions for the probability of a case based on observed values of the covariates. We present a theory, which provides explicit expressions for the asymptotic bias and variance of the MLE and the asymptotic distribution of the LRT. We empirically demonstrate that these results are accurate in finite samples. Our results depend only on a single measure of signal strength, which leads to concrete proposals for obtaining accurate inference in finite samples through the estimate of this measure.

Networks are often characterized by node heterogeneity for which nodes exhibit different degrees of interaction and link homophily for which nodes sharing common features tend to associate with each other. In this article, we rigorously study a directed network model that captures the former via node-specific parameterization and the latter by incorporating covariates. In particular, this model quantifies the extent of heterogeneity in terms of outgoingness and incomingness of each node by different parameters, thus allowing the number of heterogeneity parameters to be twice the number of nodes. We study the maximum likelihood estimation of the model and establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators. Numerical studies demonstrate our theoretical findings and two data analyses confirm the usefulness of our model. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.