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"multiscale modeling"
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Constraining the influence of natural variability to improve estimates of global aerosol indirect effects in a nudged version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5
Natural modes of variability on many timescales influence aerosol particle distributions and cloud properties such that isolating statistically significant differences in cloud radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations (indirect effects) typically requires integrating over long simulations. For state‐of‐the‐art global climate models (GCM), especially those in which embedded cloud‐resolving models replace conventional statistical parameterizations (i.e., multiscale modeling framework, MMF), the required long integrations can be prohibitively expensive. Here an alternative approach is explored, which implements Newtonian relaxation (nudging) to constrain simulations with both pre‐industrial and present‐day aerosol emissions toward identical meteorological conditions, thus reducing differences in natural variability and dampening feedback responses in order to isolate radiative forcing. Ten‐year GCM simulations with nudging provide a more stable estimate of the global‐annual mean net aerosol indirect radiative forcing than do conventional free‐running simulations. The estimates have mean values and 95% confidence intervals of −1.19 ± 0.02 W/m2 and −1.37 ± 0.13 W/m2for nudged and free‐running simulations, respectively. Nudging also substantially increases the fraction of the world's area in which a statistically significant aerosol indirect effect can be detected (66% and 28% of the Earth's surface for nudged and free‐running simulations, respectively). One‐year MMF simulations with and without nudging provide global‐annual mean net aerosol indirect radiative forcing estimates of −0.81 W/m2 and −0.82 W/m2, respectively. These results compare well with previous estimates from three‐year free‐running MMF simulations (−0.83 W/m2), which showed the aerosol‐cloud relationship to be in better agreement with observations and high‐resolution models than in the results obtained with conventional cloud parameterizations. Key Points Nudged simulations provide more stable estimates of aerosol indirect effects Nudging increases the area a statistically significant signal can be detected Nudging enables computation‐expensive GCMs to estimate aerosol indirect effects
Journal Article
Multiscale computing for science and engineering in the era of exascale performance
In this position paper, we discuss two relevant topics: (i) generic multiscale computing on emerging exascale high-performing computing environments, and (ii) the scaling of such applications towards the exascale. We will introduce the different phases when developing a multiscale model and simulating it on available computing infrastructure, and argue that we could rely on it both on the conceptual modelling level and also when actually executing the multiscale simulation, and maybe should further develop generic frameworks and software tools to facilitate multiscale computing. Next, we focus on simulating multiscale models on high-end computing resources in the face of emerging exascale performance levels. We will argue that although applications could scale to exascale performance relying on weak scaling and maybe even on strong scaling, there are also clear arguments that such scaling may no longer apply for many applications on these emerging exascale machines and that we need to resort to what we would call multi-scaling . This article is part of the theme issue ‘Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale’.
Journal Article
Descriptive multiscale modeling in data-driven neuroscience
Multiscale modeling techniques have attracted increasing attention by philosophers of science, but the resulting discussions have almost exclusively focused on issues surrounding explanation (e.g., reduction and emergence). In this paper, I argue that besides explanation, multiscale techniques can serve important exploratory functions when scientists model systems whose organization at different scales is illunderstood. My account distinguishes explanatory and descriptive multiscale modeling based on which epistemic goal scientists aim to achieve when using multiscale techniques. In explanatory multiscale modeling, scientists use multiscale techniques to select information that is relevant to explain a particular type of behavior of the target system. In descriptive multiscale modeling scientists use multiscale techniques to explore lower-scale features which could be explanatorily relevant to many different types of behavior, and to determine which features of a target system an upper-scale data pattern could refer to. Using multiscale models from data-driven neuroscience as a case study, I argue that descriptive multiscale models have an exploratory function because they are a sources of potential explanations and serve as tools to reassess our conception of the target system.
Journal Article
The case for digital twins in metal additive manufacturing
The digital twin (DT) is a relatively new concept that is finding increased acceptance in industry. A DT is generally considered as comprising a physical entity, its virtual replica, and two-way digital data communications in-between. Its primary purpose is to leverage the process intelligence captured within digital models—or usually their faster-solving surrogates—towards generating increased value from the physical entities. The surrogate models are created using machine learning based on data obtained from the field, experiments and digital models, which may be physics-based or statistics-based. Anomaly detection and correction, and diagnostic closed-loop process control are examples of how a process DT can be deployed. In the manufacturing industry, its use can achieve improvements in product quality and process productivity. Metal additive manufacturing (AM) stands to gain tremendously from the use of DTs. This is because the AM process is inherently chaotic, resulting in poor repeatability. However, a DT acting in a supervisory role can inject certainty into the process by actively keeping it within bounds through real-time control commands. Closed-loop feedforward control is achieved by observing the process through sensors that monitor critical parameters and, if there are any deviations from their respective optimal ranges, suitable corrective actions are triggered. The type of corrective action (e.g. a change in laser power or a modification to the scanning speed) and its magnitude are determined by interrogating the surrogate models. Because of their artificial intelligence (AI)-endowed predictive capabilities, which allow them to foresee a future state of the physical twin (e.g. the AM process), DTs proactively take context-sensitive preventative steps, whereas traditional closed-loop feedback control is usually reactive. Apart from assisting a build process in real-time, a DT can help with planning the build of a part by pinpointing the optimum processing window relevant to the desired outcome. Again, the surrogate models are consulted to obtain the required information. In this article, we explain how the application of DTs to the metal AM process can significantly widen its application space by making the process more repeatable (through quality assurance) and cheaper (by getting builds right the first time).
Journal Article
Review of the synergies between computational modeling and experimental characterization of materials across length scales
With the increasing interplay between experimental and computational approaches at multiple length scales, new research directions are emerging in materials science and computational mechanics. Such cooperative interactions find many applications in the development, characterization and design of complex material systems. This manuscript provides a broad and comprehensive overview of recent trends in which predictive modeling capabilities are developed in conjunction with experiments and advanced characterization to gain a greater insight into structure–property relationships and study various physical phenomena and mechanisms. The focus of this review is on the intersections of multiscale materials experiments and modeling relevant to the materials mechanics community. After a general discussion on the perspective from various communities, the article focuses on the latest experimental and theoretical opportunities. Emphasis is given to the role of experiments in multiscale models, including insights into how computations can be used as discovery tools for materials engineering, rather than to “simply” support experimental work. This is illustrated by examples from several application areas on structural materials. This manuscript ends with a discussion on some problems and open scientific questions that are being explored in order to advance this relatively new field of research.
Journal Article
Prospects for Declarative Mathematical Modeling of Complex Biological Systems
Declarative modeling uses symbolic expressions to represent models. With such expressions, one can formalize high-level mathematical computations on models that would be difficult or impossible to perform directly on a lower-level simulation program, in a general-purpose programming language. Examples of such computations on models include model analysis, relatively general-purpose model reduction maps, and the initial phases of model implementation, all of which should preserve or approximate the mathematical semantics of a complex biological model. The potential advantages are particularly relevant in the case of developmental modeling, wherein complex spatial structures exhibit dynamics at molecular, cellular, and organogenic levels to relate genotype to multicellular phenotype. Multiscale modeling can benefit from both the expressive power of declarative modeling languages and the application of model reduction methods to link models across scale. Based on previous work, here we define declarative modeling of complex biological systems by defining the operator algebra semantics of an increasingly powerful series of declarative modeling languages including reaction-like dynamics of parameterized and extended objects; we define semantics-preserving implementation and semantics-approximating model reduction transformations; and we outline a “meta-hierarchy” for organizing declarative models and the mathematical methods that can fruitfully manipulate them.
Journal Article
Computational Study of Quenching Effects on Growth Processes and Size Distributions of Silicon Nanoparticles at a Thermal Plasma Tail
In this paper, quenching effects on silicon nanoparticle growth processes and size distributions at a typical range of cooling rates in a thermal plasma tail are investigated computationally. We used a nodal-type model that expresses a size distribution evolving temporally with simultaneous homogeneous nucleation, heterogeneous condensation, interparticle coagulation, and melting point depression. The numerically obtained size distributions exhibit similar size ranges and tendencies to those of experiment results obtained with and without quenching. In a highly supersaturated state, 40–50% of the vapor atoms are converted rapidly to nanoparticles. After most vapor atoms are consumed, the nanoparticles grow by coagulation, which occurs much more slowly than condensation. At higher cooling rates, one obtains greater total number density, smaller size, and smaller standard deviation. Quenching in thermal plasma fabrication is effectual, but it presents limitations for controlling nanoparticle characteristics.
Journal Article
Bridging the Transition from Mesoscale to Microscale Turbulence in Numerical Weather Prediction Models
With a focus towards developing multiscale capabilities in numerical weather prediction models, the specific problem of the transition from the mesoscale to the microscale is investigated. For that purpose, idealized one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) experiments were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model framework. It is demonstrated that switching from one-dimensional turbulent diffusion in the mesoscale model to three-dimensional LES mixing does not necessarily result in an instantaneous development of turbulence in the LES domain. On the contrary, very large fetches are needed for the natural transition to turbulence to occur. The computational burden imposed by these long fetches necessitates the development of methods to accelerate the generation of turbulence on a nested LES domain forced by a smooth mesoscale inflow. To that end, four new methods based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field along the LES inflow boundaries are developed, and investigated under convective conditions. Each method accelerated the development of turbulence within the LES domain, with two of the methods resulting in a rapid generation of production and inertial range energy content associated to microscales that is consistent with non-nested simulations using periodic boundary conditions. The cell perturbation approach, the simplest and most efficient of the best performing methods, was investigated further under neutral and stable conditions. Successful results were obtained in all the regimes, where satisfactory agreement of mean velocity, variances and turbulent fluxes, as well as velocity and temperature spectra, was achieved with reference non-nested simulations. In contrast, the non-perturbed LES solution exhibited important energy deficits associated to a delayed establishment of fully-developed turbulence. The cell perturbation method has negligible computational cost, significantly accelerates the generation of realistic turbulence, and requires minimal parameter tuning, with the necessary information relatable to mean inflow conditions provided by the mesoscale solution.
Journal Article